tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34081327579694462632024-03-21T22:12:49.340-07:00Libertarian Democrat Point Of View: An EccentricityOn this blog, I post stories, comments, anything that interests me. Sometimes, I comment upon them. I post the entire story, column, or whatever, in order to save it for my reference. On the right are comments, blogs, etc., that I find useful, or that express what qualify as my opinions. Feel free to contact me via the comment option. Rest assured, you will be treated civilly. On this blog, the assumption is that, properly presented, anyone can understand anything.Donald Pretarihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14493535232127084725noreply@blogger.comBlogger5672125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3408132757969446263.post-17264210627991693932015-04-15T10:13:00.002-07:002015-04-15T10:13:57.671-07:00CommentsI still appreciate real comments about my old blog. Cheers, DonDonald Pretarihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14493535232127084725noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3408132757969446263.post-2305990400818099802009-07-04T11:54:00.000-07:002009-07-04T11:55:07.764-07:00http://whatifitwere.blogspot.com/My new blog is here:<br /><br />http://whatifitwere.blogspot.com/Donald Pretarihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14493535232127084725noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3408132757969446263.post-70017812660188589412009-06-21T20:05:00.000-07:002009-06-21T20:11:37.153-07:00the Ortega government wants to silence an opposition-leaning media outlet.<a href="http://www.bloggingsbyboz.com/2009/06/nicaragua-silences-radio-station.html">TO BE NOTED: From </a><a href="http://www.bloggingsbyboz.com/">Bloggings by boz</a><a href="http://www.bloggingsbyboz.com/2009/06/nicaragua-silences-radio-station.html">:</a><br /><br /><a href="http://www.bloggingsbyboz.com/2009/06/nicaragua-silences-radio-station.html">"</a><a href="http://www.bloggingsbyboz.com/2009/06/nicaragua-silences-radio-station.html"><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span>Nicaragua silences radio station</a><h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3> <div class="post-body entry-content"> Nicaragua's government has <a href="http://www.laprensa.com.ni/archivo/2009/junio/20/noticias/politica/334027.shtml">canceled</a> the license for Radio La Ley. While the government claims the license was canceled over some technical violations of the telecommunications law, it's clear to everyone watching the situation that the Ortega government wants to silence an opposition-leaning media outlet.<br /><br />Sound familiar? This is a story that is becoming increasingly common in some countries in Latin America. Peru <a href="http://www.bloggingsbyboz.com/2009/06/peru-shuts-radio-station.html">canceled</a> the license for Radio La Voz over documentation issues, but it was <a href="http://www.rsf.org/Amazon-radio-taken-off-air-for.html">clearly</a> due to the station's reporting on the violent clashes in Bagua. Ecuador's government is moving to suspend or <a href="http://www.rsf.org/TV-station-in-open-conflict-with.html">shut down</a> Teleamazonas TV over various political disputes regarding the station's reporting. Venezuela's government continues to <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/10/AR2009061003547.html">attack</a> Globovision through <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/americas/06/16/venezuela.broadcaster/">various</a> administrative rules, with President Chavez publicly stating that they can only remain on the air if they change their editorial line.<br /><br />Shutting down private media outlets over political disagreements is a clear violation of freedom of the press as it's defined by the UN, OAS and most of these countries' constitutions. Governments do have rights and obligations to regulate the broadcast spectrum, but using legal technicalities to attack the media outlets does not make the violation of democratic rights any less egregious. </div> <span class="post-author vcard"> Posted by <span class="fn">boz</span> "</span><br /><br /><img alt="http://www.merriam-webster.com/maps/images/maps/nicaragua_map.gif" src="http://www.merriam-webster.com/maps/images/maps/nicaragua_map.gif" />Donald Pretarihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14493535232127084725noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3408132757969446263.post-29688915402454589502009-06-21T15:07:00.000-07:002009-06-21T15:10:20.971-07:00structure of the US overnight repurchase market may have exacerbated the financial turmoil that accompanied the failure of Lehman Brothers in Sept<a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d1c74b5c-5e99-11de-91ad-00144feabdc0.html">TO BE NOTED: From the FT:<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br />"</span>Fed plans repo markets revamp</a><div class="ft-story-header"><p><a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d1c74b5c-5e99-11de-91ad-00144feabdc0.html">By Henny Sender and Michael Mackenzie in New York </a></p><p>Published: June 21 2009 22:31 | Last updated: June 21 2009 22:31</p></div><div class="ft-story-body"><p>The US Federal Reserve is considering dramatic changes to the giant repurchase – or repo – markets where banks around the world raise overnight dollar loans.</p><p>The plans include creating a utility to replace the Wall Street banks that handle transactions, people familiar with the matter say.</p><p>The Fed’s deliberations are partly motivated by concerns that the structure of the US overnight repurchase market may have exacerbated the financial turmoil that accompanied the failure of <b><a symbol="us:LEHMQ" href="http://markets.ft.com/tearsheets/performance.asp?s=us:LEHMQ">Lehman Brothers</a></b> in September last year.</p><p>Fed officials plan to meet next month with market participants to discuss reforms.</p><p>People familiar with the Fed’s thinking say it is looking into the creation of a mechanism to replace the clearing banks – the biggest of which are <b><a symbol="us:JPM" href="http://markets.ft.com/tearsheets/performance.asp?s=us:JPM">JPMorgan Chase</a></b> and <b><a symbol="us:BK" href="http://markets.ft.com/tearsheets/performance.asp?s=us:BK">Bank of New York Mellon</a></b> – that serve as intermediaries between borrowers and lenders.</p><p>“The Fed is raising questions about whether the system really protects the interests of all participants,” says one person familiar with the Fed’s thinking.</p><p>In the repo markets, borrowers, such as banks, pledge collateral in return for overnight loans from lenders, such as money market funds.</p><p>The clearing banks stand between the parties, providing services such as valuing the collateral and advancing cash during the hours when trades are being made and unwound. </p><p>Fed officials fear this arrangement puts the clearing banks in a difficult position in a crisis. As the value of the securities falls, clearing banks have an obligation to demand more collateral to avoid losses. But in doing <span id="U250160247920ukH">so, they could destabilise a rival.</span></p><p>“The clearing banks fear the positions of the investment banks are so large that a default would be difficult for them to manage,” the person familiar with the Fed’s thinking said.</p><p>“[Everyone] is thinking about how to remove conflicts of interest of the clearing banks and the investment banks so that the investment banks aren’t vulnerable to a sudden restriction of credit.” </p><p>The system’s complications were evident during Lehman’s collapse. JPMorgan, one of Lehman’s biggest trading partners, acted as its clearing bank in the repo market and – along with BoNY Mellon – served as the clearing bank for the New York Federal Reserve’s credit facility for securities companies.</p><p>Lawyers for the Lehman estate and for creditors have raised questions about whether JPMorgan acted too aggressively in seizing and marking down Lehman’s collateral.</p><p>Hedge funds have bought Lehman debt on the theory that the estate can claw back some of that collateral in court.</p><p>Citing confidentiality concerns, JPMorgan declined to comment.</p><p>The Fed hopes to have a new repo system in place by October, when its credit facility for securities companies is to close.</p></div><p class="copyright"><a href="http://www.ft.com/servicestools/help/copyright">Copyright</a> The Financial Times Limited 2009"</p>Donald Pretarihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14493535232127084725noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3408132757969446263.post-72882185360423473582009-06-21T15:02:00.000-07:002009-06-21T15:06:04.945-07:00They see the financial crisis primarily as a moral crisis of Anglo-Saxon capitalism.<a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4e63cb22-5e8b-11de-91ad-00144feabdc0.html">TO BE NOTED: From the FT:<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br />"</span>Berlin weaves a deficit hair-shirt for us all</a><div class="ft-story-header"><p><a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4e63cb22-5e8b-11de-91ad-00144feabdc0.html">By Wolfgang Münchau</a></p><p>Published: June 21 2009 18:49 | Last updated: June 21 2009 18:49</p></div><div class="ft-story-body"><p>A decision was taken recently in Berlin to introduce a balanced-budget law in the German constitution. It was a hugely important decision. It may not have received due attention outside Germany given the flood of other economic and financial news. From 2016, it will be illegal for the federal government to run a deficit of more than 0.35 per cent of gross domestic product. From 2020, the federal states will not be allowed to run any deficit at all. Unlike Europe’s stability and growth pact, which was first circumvented, later softened and then ignored, this unilateral constitutional law will stick. I would expect that for the next 20 or 30 years, deficit reduction will be the first, second and third priority of German economic policy.</p><p>Anchoring the stability law at the level of the national constitution is an extreme measure – like locking the door, and throwing the keys away. It can only ever be undone with a two-thirds majority – and even a future Grand Coalition may not be able to deliver this as both of the large parties are in a process of secular decline. It means that future fiscal policy will be in the hands of the justices of Germany’s Constitutional Court. The new law replaces a much softer constitutional clause – a golden investment rule that said deficits can only be used to finance investments. It was not a satisfactory rule, but at least it allowed structural deficits in principle. The new law not only sets <span class="bodystrong">draconian</span> deficit ceilings, it also provides a detailed numerical toolkit to implement the rules over the economic cycle. </p><p>I can foresee two outcomes. First, Germany might end up in a procyclical downward spiral of debt reduction and low growth. In that case, the constitutionally prescribed pursuit of a balanced budget would require ever greater budgetary cuts to compensate for a loss of tax revenues. </p><p>To meet the interim deficit reduction goals, the new government will have to start cutting the structural deficits by 2011 at the latest. There is clear danger that the budget consolidation timetable might conflict with the need for further economic stimulus, should the economic crisis take another turn for the worse. There is still economic uncertainty. Bankruptcies are rising, and the German banks are just about to tighten their credit standards again. I simply cannot see how Germany can produce robust growth in such an environment, not even in 2011. If that scenario prevails – as I believe it will – the new constitutional law will produce a pro-cyclical fiscal policy with immediate effect.</p><p>One could also construct a virtuous cycle – the second outcome. If Germany were to return to a pre-crisis level of growth in 2011, and all is well after that, the consolidation phase would then start in a cyclical upturn. </p><p>Either of those scenarios, even the positive one, is going to be hugely damaging to the eurozone. In the first case, the German economy would become a structural basket case, and would drag down the rest of Europe for a generation. In the second case, economic and political tensions inside the eurozone are going to become unbearable. Over the past 25 years, France has more or less followed Germany’s lead at every turn, but I suspect this may be a turn too far. Deficit reduction has not been, nor will it be, a priority for Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president. On the contrary: he has listened to bad advice from French economists who told him that budget deficits are irrelevant, and that he should focus only on structural reforms. Budget deficits and debt levels matter in a monetary union. But a zero level of debt is neither necessary nor desirable.</p><p>I am a little surprised not to hear howls of protests from France and other European countries. Germany has not consulted its European partners in a systematic way. While the Maastricht treaty says countries should treat economic policy as a matter of common concern, this was an example of policy unilateralism at its most extreme. </p><p>What is the rationale for such a decision? It cannot be economic, for there is no rule in economics to suggest that zero is the correct level of debt, which is what a balanced budget would effectively imply in the very long run. The optimal debt-to-GDP ratio might be lower for Germany than for some other countries, but it surely is not zero.</p><p>While the balanced budget law is economically illiterate, it is also universally popular. Average Germans do not primarily regard debt in terms of its economic meaning, but as a moral issue. Der Spiegel, the German news magazine, had an intriguing report last week on the country’s young generation. One of the protagonists in its story was a young woman who had borrowed a little money to set up her own company. The company turned out to be a success, and she had began to repay the loan. And yet she said she had not felt proud of having taken on debt. </p><p>This general level of debt-aversion is bizarre. Many ordinary Germans regard debt as morally objectionable, even if it is put to proper use. They see the financial crisis primarily as a moral crisis of Anglo-Saxon capitalism. The balanced budget constitutional law is therefore not about economics. It is a moral crusade, and it is the last thing, Germany, the eurozone and the world need right now. </p><p><a class="bodystrong" href="mailto:munchau@eurointelligence.com">munchau@eurointelligence.com</a>"</p></div><img style="cursor: -moz-zoom-in;" alt="http://www.emansworld.com/JPEGS/map_germany-big.jpeg" src="http://www.emansworld.com/JPEGS/map_germany-big.jpeg" width="522" height="707" />Donald Pretarihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14493535232127084725noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3408132757969446263.post-18253258020961579372009-06-21T14:57:00.000-07:002009-06-21T15:00:58.048-07:00Unlikely as it may seem, the plan suggests a net increase in regulatory agencies. In the US, this requires real ingenuity.<a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f436b22e-5e88-11de-91ad-00144feabdc0.html">TO BE NOTED: From the FT:<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br />"</span>A thin outline of regulatory reform </a><div class="ft-story-header"><p><a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f436b22e-5e88-11de-91ad-00144feabdc0.html">By Clive Crook</a></p><p>Published: June 21 2009 18:43 | Last updated: June 21 2009 18:43</p></div><div class="ft-story-body"><p><img alt="David Bromley" src="http://media.ft.com/cms/336fbef8-5e8a-11de-91ad-00144feabdc0.jpg" width="470" height="287" /></p><p>The Obama administration’s <a class="bodystrong" target="_blank" title="US regulatory reform" href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6bcf0554-5b5d-11de-be3f-00144feabdc0.html">proposals for US financial regulation</a> are pretty good, as far as they go. The problem is they do not go far enough.</p><p>Great care and intelligence went into the plan announced last week. It makes no stupid suggestions; recall Sarbanes-Oxley, a recent instance of unguided regulatory backlash, and you see this is no small achievement. But the plan’s comprehensiveness is a bit of an illusion. It ignores many issues, and has more loose ends and suggestions for further review than actual innovations.</p><p>Also, as in other areas, the White House is unwilling to confront the political barriers to fuller reform. You can call this pragmatism, or you can call it timidity. A crisis of this order demands big new ideas, and the leadership to push them through. In finance, if not now, when?</p><p>The administration asks Congress, which will have to write new laws for the plan to work, to fill some of the biggest holes in the existing structure. Systemically important financial institutions, whether or not they are banks in the old-fashioned sense, should be more tightly regulated by the Federal Reserve, says Mr Obama.</p><p>In addition, a new intervention regime should cover all such firms, modelled on the scheme run by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation for ordinary banks, says the plan. The idea is to wind up a failing bank early and in an orderly way, rather than facing the choice of bailing it out or letting it collapse and maybe drag others down with it.</p><p>The administration is right: these are big and necessary changes. But the details are vague. How exactly the tighter regulation of these “tier one financial holding companies” will work – what their capital and liquidity requirements will be, for instance – is for further study. Firms in this category will pay a regulatory surcharge, as they should. And the plan seems to favour counter-cyclical capital requirements too, which would brake lending growth in credit booms. Again this is right; again there are no specific proposals.</p><p>The plan calls for tighter regulation of securities markets. It proposes, for instance, that issuers of credit-risk securities should retain a share of the risk. It wants many over-the-counter derivatives to be traded on exchanges, which is safer, and proposes to bring “all OTC derivatives and asset-backed securities into a coherent and co-ordinated regulatory framework”. Quite right. </p><p>But what about <b><a symbol="us:FNM" href="http://markets.ft.com/tearsheets/performance.asp?s=us:FNM">Fannie Mae</a></b> and <b><a symbol="us:FRE" href="http://markets.ft.com/tearsheets/performance.asp?s=us:FRE">Freddie Mac</a></b>, the vast “government sponsored enterprises” that were instrumental in stoking the subprime boom? The plan bravely calls for a “wide-ranging initiative to develop recommendations”.</p><p>What about the credit-rating agencies, and the measurement of risk for regulatory purposes more generally? There is no point in telling financial institutions to set aside more capital if they are free to pump up their risks at the same time. The plan is thin. It wants better regulation of the rating agencies. Who doesn’t? But what would better regulation of the agencies look like? That needs further study.</p><p>“The financial crisis highlighted the problems associated with compensation structures that do not take into consideration risk and firms’ goals over the longer term,” says the plan. Indeed it did. The report says little on what to do about it, and next to nothing about wider bank corporate governance. </p><p>Fair-value accounting? Further review. </p><p>These are all complicated issues, and wide consultation is doubtless required to design the rules. So in a way it is unfair to complain about loose ends. It would be easier to feel that way if the administration had got things right at the organisational level. Unfortunately it has not. Perhaps the biggest disappointment in the plan is that it fails to address the bewildering complexity of the regulatory apparatus.</p><p>Unlikely as it may seem, the plan suggests a net increase in regulatory agencies. In the US, this requires real ingenuity. Recognising the issue of “jurisdictional disputes among regulators” – a problem that is going to get worse under these plans – it calls for a new Financial Services Oversight Council, chaired by the Treasury. This would advise the Fed on which firms should be regarded as systemically significant, and “facilitate information sharing and co-ordination”. Regulation by committee, atop a system of overlapping agencies unsure of their responsibilities, with financial firms still free to shop around for a regulator they like, does not inspire. </p><p>Crucially, it also militates against effective international co-ordination. Aside from poor oversight of the shadow banking system and the system-wide failure to account properly for risk, the biggest weakness in the existing regulatory scheme has been lack of cross-border co-operation by national regulators. The more complicated the domestic regulatory structure, the harder it will be for US regulators to work with their counterparts abroad.</p><p>Why no effort to streamline the structure? The answer seems to be that Congress would object. A simpler organisation chart would strip its oversight committees of responsibility, and their members of influence. The White House apparently regards this as too much to ask. On health reform, the administration has given control of the entire project to Congress. On financial regulation, it is still trying to direct the policy – but from the outset within limits that respect the legislature’s preferences, however ill advised. That is a pity. </p><p><a class="bodystrong" href="mailto:clive.crook@gmail.com">clive.crook@gmail.com</a>"</p></div>Donald Pretarihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14493535232127084725noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3408132757969446263.post-57501672041450845812009-06-21T14:16:00.000-07:002009-06-21T14:21:21.955-07:00And if you need hope, if you're coming apart You can surely find it in my dad's heart.<a href="http://www.catiecurtis.com/">TO BE NOTED: From Catie Curtis:</a><br /><br /><img alt="http://www.catiecurtis.com/layout/header.jpg" src="http://www.catiecurtis.com/layout/header.jpg" /><br /><br /><img alt="http://www.catiecurtis.com/images/imgallery/imgallery-dadsyardfrontcard2.jpg" src="http://www.catiecurtis.com/images/imgallery/imgallery-dadsyardfrontcard2.jpg" /><br /><br /><div id="frontpagestory3245" class="frontpagestory"><h2>The new version of "Dad's Yard" now released FREE here (with artwork) so scroll down and have at it! </h2> <p>"Hello, Stranger", the string band sessions CD I recorded earlier this year with Garry West at Compass Records, will be available as an itunes exclusive on June 16th! The actual CD, with cover art by best-selling illustrator/humorist Suzy Becker, will be released soon after. More details coming soon!<br /><br />The BIG news today, is that the new version of my song "Dad's Yard," which I recorded with Grammy Award-winning musicians Stuart Duncan (Allison Krauss sideman), Alison Brown, George Marinelli and Darrell Scott, is available here as a free download! I have always thought that "Dad's Yard" would make a good tribute song/gift for Fathers Day (or to celebrate anyone whose motto in life is "Never throw anything away"). So as of today, "Dad's Yard" is here at CatieCurtis.com! There is also artwork that you can download as a card/insert for the CD jewel case (make sure to reuse an old, scratchy jewel case in keeping with the song) which would make it an excellent Father's Day card with CD. Thanks to Compass Records for offering this gift to you.<br /><br />This year has been pretty amazing so far. I got to dig in to the Sweet Life (Sept 2008), on the road in an extremely fun fall tour, including sold out performances in venues such as the Birchmere in Alexandria VA. I had the chance to share the gift of music through my Aspire to Inspire Guitar Initiative, which provided guitars to young musicians of limited financial means. In January, I performed at the HRC Inaugural Ball for Barack Obama, in February I brought Sweet Life to the UK, and in March and April I continued touring the United States, including a benefit concert in Madison with the Indigo Girls, Dar Williams and Ani Difranco.<br /><br />I look forward to September, when I will join the the Olivia team on their Alaska Cruise. I can't tell you how excited I am for the trip, and for the pleasure of performing to an Olivia audience. Olivia has included you and me in this cool promotion:<br /><br />"Join Catie on Olivia and get $100 off! For the next 30 days, Olivia is offering a group program discount to all Catie fans who want to join her on the Alaka Cruise, Sep 20 - 27, 2009. Just call Olivia at 1.800.631.6277, tell us you are part of the Catie Curtis group and you will receive $100 off per person. For more information on the trips, just go to http://www.olivia.com/Travel/Trips_Alaska.aspx. " Maybe this is the time! Honeymoon, anyone?<br /><br />I am about to enter summer mode, when I hang out with my kids on the shores of Lake Michigan until early August. There are just a couple events during June and July. One is a recently added a house concert in Topsfield MA, on June 14. The 7 pm show is sold out and they are adding another at 9:30 for which tickets are still available. Also, I will be in Provincetown, MA on July 2nd at a show presented by public radio station WOMR.<br /><br />I hope you all are finding your own summer mode-- whatever that means to you! <br /><br />See you out there,<br />Catie<br />ps: of course I'll still be on FACEBOOK this summer--- friend me sometime. <br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /></p> <p class="timestamp">last updated Friday, June 12th, 2009 @ 1:19 PM</p> <div id="resources"> <div class="stack"> <a href="http://www.catiecurtis.com/images/resources/resources-Dads_Yard.zip" target="_blank" style="background: transparent url(images/thumbs/ccurtis-3266-1.jpg) no-repeat scroll center top; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; width: 50px; height: 50px; display: block;" class="imageleft"><span style="display: none;">zip</span></a> <p><strong><a href="http://www.catiecurtis.com/images/resources/resources-Dads_Yard.zip" target="_blank">Dad's Yard Zip File <span class="small">(zip)</span></a></strong><br />This is a zip file containting an mp3 of the song and a pdf to print out. Open the zip file once you have downloaded it.</p> <div style="float: none; clear: both;"> </div> <!-- to keep firefox inline //--> </div><!-- end div "stack"--> </div><!-- end div "resources"--> </div> <!-- end front page story 3245 //--> <div id="menubox" class="menubox"> <div id="searchbox"> <form action="index.php" method="get"> <input name="page" value="" type="hidden"> <input name="family" value="" type="hidden"> <input name="category" value="" type="hidden"> <input name="searchfor" id="searchfor" size="12" maxlength="255" class="searchbox" value="SEARCH" onfocus="this.value='';" type="text"> <input src="https://www.slab500.com/common/images/tiny/find.gif" alt="submit" title="submit" id="searchbutton" type="image"> </form> </div><!--end div "searchbox"--> <div id="featured_calendar_box" class="featured_box"><h4>Upcoming Events<a href="http://www.catiecurtis.com/index.php?page=calendar" class="featured_next_button"> »</a></h4> <ul><li><a href="http://www.catiecurtis.com/index.php?page=calendar&display=3254"><span class="gigdate">Wed, Jul 1, 09</span><br /><span class="gigtitle">Private Party</span><br /><span class="gigtitle">Provincetown, MA</span></a></li><li><a href="http://www.catiecurtis.com/index.php?page=calendar&display=3255"><span class="gigdate">Thu, Jul 2, 09</span><br /><span class="gigtitle">Presented by WOMR</span><br /><span class="gigtitle">WOMR SCHOOLHOUSE SPACE<span class="tab"> </span></span><br /><span class="gigtitle">Provincetown, MA</span></a></li><li><a href="http://www.catiecurtis.com/index.php?page=calendar&display=3240"><span class="gigdate">Fri, Jul 17, 09</span><br /><span class="gigtitle">Inside Out Gallery</span><br /><span class="gigtitle">TRAVERSE CITY<span class="tab"> </span>, MI</span></a></li><li><a href="http://www.catiecurtis.com/index.php?page=calendar&display=3218"><span class="gigdate">Sat, Aug 1, 09</span><br /><span class="gigtitle">LOWELL SUMMER MUSIC FESTIVAL </span><br /><span class="gigtitle">BOARDING HOUSE PARK</span><br /><span class="gigtitle">LOWELL, MA</span></a></li><li><a href="http://www.catiecurtis.com/index.php?page=calendar&display=2178"><span class="gigdate">Sun, Aug 2, 09</span><br /><span class="gigtitle">BETHLEHEM MUSIKFEST</span><br /><span class="gigtitle">BETHLEHEM, PA</span></a></li></ul></div><!-- end div "featured_calendar_box"--> <div id="featured_cds_box" class="featured_box"><h4>Featured CDs<a href="http://www.catiecurtis.com/index.php?page=cds" class="featured_next_button"> »</a></h4> <ul><li style="height: 56px; clear: both; float: none;"> <a href="http://www.catiecurtis.com/index.php?page=cds&display=1695" style="border: medium none ; background-image: none; background-color: transparent;"> <img src="http://www.catiecurtis.com/images/thumbs/cds-imgallerycdcover.jpg" alt="Sweet Life" class="imageleft" width="50" height="46" /></a> <a href="http://www.catiecurtis.com/index.php?page=cds&display=1695" style="border: medium none ; background-image: none; background-color: transparent;">Sweet Life</a><br /><a href="http://bulletproofartists.com/onlinestore/category.cfm?Category=17" target="_blank" class="small" title="buy Sweet Life from Compass Records"><img src="https://www.slab500.com/common/images/buttons/14png/buynow.png" alt="buy" /></a> <div id="slabster_addtocart"> <!-- slabster id found //--> </div></li></ul></div><!-- end div "featured_cds_box"--> <div id="featured_links_box" class="featured_box"><h4>Featured Links<a href="http://www.catiecurtis.com/index.php?page=links" class="featured_next_button"> »</a></h4> <ul><li> <a href="http://www.facebook.com/pages/Catie-Curtis/27201801262" target="_blank" class="list1">Catie on Facebook</a></li><li> <a href="http://www.ascap.com/network/audioportraits/" target="_blank" class="list1">ASCAP audio portrait NEW Oct 2008</a></li><li> <a href="http://www.hopeequity.org/catiecurtis.cfm" target="_blank" class="list1">Aspire to Inspire</a></li></ul></div><!-- end div "featured_links_box"--> <div id="featured_video_box" class="featured_box"><h4>Featured Video<a href="http://www.catiecurtis.com/index.php?page=video" class="featured_next_button"> »</a></h4> <ul><li style="display: block; float: none; clear: both; min-height: 44px;"><a href="http://www.catiecurtis.com/index.php?page=video&display=1819" class="small"><img src="http://www.catiecurtis.com/images/thumbs/pugnacious.jpg" class="imageleft" alt="Happy" width="60" height="44" />Happy</a></li><li><a href="http://www.catiecurtis.com/index.php?page=video&display=1812">Catie on Lightning 100, Death Cab for Cutie</a></li></ul></div><!-- end div "featured_video_box"--> <div id="featured_press_box" class="featured_box"><h4>Featured Press<a href="http://www.catiecurtis.com/index.php?page=press" class="featured_next_button"> »</a></h4> <ul><li><a href="http://www.catiecurtis.com/index.php?page=press&display=1872&from=">Catie Curtis in The Washington Post- </a></li><li><a href="http://www.catiecurtis.com/index.php?page=press&display=1759&from="> Catie Curtis Gives the Gift of Music- <b>Seventeen Magazine</b></a></li><li><a href="http://www.catiecurtis.com/index.php?page=press&display=1817&from=">Catie Curtis in Billboard- </a></li></ul></div><!-- end div "featured_press_box"--> <div id="featured_signup_box"><h4><a href="http://www.catiecurtis.com/index.php?page=signup" class="featured_next_button">Subscribe »</a></h4> </div> </div> <span id="copyright"></span>It's got an old chair that's got no seat<br />Cracked snowshoes and warped wooden skis<br />Hardcover books, pages all turned brown<br />Dad has a reason for everything he keeps around<br />So if you need something when times get hard<br />You can probably find it in my dad's yard<br />And if you need hope, if you're coming apart<br />You can surely find it in my dad's heart.<br />You never really know just what might be in store<br />If you go in the barn and open the boxes on the second floor<br />'Cause underneath the paper crumpled up in balls<br />You might find a gem or you might find nothing at all<br />And that's the fun of it, it's that mystery<br />And all these things burying other people's history<br />You can look at this stuff and wonder where it's been<br />Or you can pick it up and you can use it again<br />So if you need something when times get hard<br />You can probably find it in my dad's yard<br />And if you need hope, if you're coming apart<br />You can surely find it in my dad's heart.<br />He can see the beauty beneath the dust and the grime<br />He can see potential where the rest of us are blind<br />He will polish the grey until it shines clear blue<br />And if you know my dad, well, he won't give up on you<br />So if you need something when times get hard<br />You can probably find it in my dad's yard<br />And if you need love, if you're coming apart<br />You can surely find it in my dad's heart.Donald Pretarihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14493535232127084725noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3408132757969446263.post-50144070976155262402009-06-21T12:48:00.000-07:002009-06-21T12:53:05.208-07:00fee would be paid by large bank holding companies that engage in risky activities beyond traditional banking<a href="http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/06/19/too-big-to-fail-policy-must-end-fdic-chair-says/">TO BE NOTED: From the NY Times:</a><br /><br /><div id="header"> <h1><a href="http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/" title="Go to DealBook Home"><img src="http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs_v3/dealbook/dealbook_print.png" alt="DealBook - A Financial News Service of The New York Times" /></a></h1> <div class="ad"> <!-- ad tags --> <script language="JavaScript"> <!-- if (typeof adxpos_Position1B != "undefined") document.write(adxads[adxpos_Position1B]); //else document.getElementById('blog_sidead').style.display='none'; // --> </script><noscript><br /></noscript></div></div><span class="timestamp published" title="2009-06-19T11:01:56-04:00"><span></span></span> <!-- date updated --> <!-- <abbr class="updated" title="2009-06-19T16:30:33-04:00">— Updated: 4:30 pm</abbr> --> <!-- Title --> <h3 class="entry-title">‘Too Big to Fail’ Policy Must End, F.D.I.C. Chief Says</h3> <!-- By line --> <!-- The Content --> <p>Sheila C. Bair, the chairwoman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, is adding to the debate over what may be the largest overhaul of the nation’s financial rules in decades.</p> <p>In an interview on CNBC Friday morning, Ms. Bair said a main priority was ending the “too-big-to-fail doctrine” — the idea that a financial institution can become so large and interconnected that it must be propped up at all costs — and called the Obama administration’s <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/19/business/19treasury.html?dlbk">proposed regulatory changes</a> an “opening in the process” toward that goal.</p> <p>She said she wanted a seat at the table in redrafting banking rules and reiterated her support for higher insurance fees for large banks that take big risks, an <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/14/us/politics/14power.html">issue that has been a sore spot</a> between her and John C. Dugan, the comptroller of the currency. </p> <p>NYT_VideoPlayerStart({playerType:"article",videoId:"1194841058885",adxPagename:"dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/video"});</p> <p>As the insurer of $6 trillion in bank deposits, the F.D.I.C. should be included in the decision-making process, Ms. Bair said Friday, especially when it comes to dealing with risks to the entire financial system. </p> <p>“We would obviously like a seat at the table in decision making on systemic risk,” she said. “The F.D.I.C. has tremendous exposure to the system.”</p> <p>Ms. Bair is seeking to create a separate insurance pool, similar to, but separate from, the deposit insurance premiums the F.D.I.C. currently collects from banks, which would be designed to curb systemic risk. The fee would be paid by large bank holding companies that engage in risky activities beyond traditional banking. Ms. Bair mentioned proprietary trading and over-the-counter derivative trading as two examples of activities that could warrant the payment of the new insurance fee.</p> <p>Ms. Bair said the fees would create economic disincentives for banks to take on more risk and grow to a size that would make them too big to fail, thereby posing a risk to the whole financial system.</p> <p>She also said that she is not likely to continue in her role at the F.D.I.C. past her five-year term, which ends in 2011.</p> <p>“I am very much looking forward to getting back to more sane hours and more time with my family,” Ms. Bair.</p> <p>– <em>Cyrus Sanati"</em></p>Donald Pretarihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14493535232127084725noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3408132757969446263.post-44002677332429097582009-06-20T23:42:00.000-07:002009-06-20T23:48:01.401-07:00A genuine and fruitful dialogue between believers and nonbelievers is impossible unless one takes the standpoint of one's interlocutor seriously<a href="http://chronicle.com/cgi2-bin/printable.cgi?article=http://chronicle.com/free/v55/i39/39wolinsecularage.htm">TO BE NOTED:</a><br /><br /><a href="http://chronicle.com/"><img src="http://chronicle.com/icons/2004/a/flag_chename_322.gif" alt="The Chronicle of Higher Education" border="0" width="322" height="18" /></a> <hr align="left" size="1" width="322" noshade="noshade"> <a href="http://chronicle.com/review/"><img src="http://chronicle.com/icons/2004/b/flag_review_322.gif" alt="The Chronicle Review" border="0" width="322" height="31" /></a><br /><br /> <span style="font-size:-1;">http://chronicle.com/free/v55/i39/39wolinsecularage.htm</span><p> <storytext> </storytext></p><h1>Reason vs. Faith: the Battle Continues</h1> <p class="byline"><span style="font-size:-1;">By RICHARD WOLIN</span></p> <!-- Begin Story Text --> <p>In 1802 Georg W.F. Hegel wrote an impassioned treatise on faith and reason, articulating the major philosophical conflict of the day. Among European intellectual circles, the Enlightenment credo, which celebrated the "sovereignty of reason," had recently triumphed. From that standpoint, human intellect was a self-sufficient measure of the true, the just, and the good. The outlook's real target, of course, was religion, which the <i>philosophes</i> viewed as the last redoubt of delusion and superstition. Theological claims, they held, could only lead mankind astray. Once the last ramparts of unreason were breached — our mental Bastilles, as it were — sovereign reason would take command and, presumably, human perfection would not be long in coming.</p> <p>Soon legions of skeptics and naysayers emerged to cast doubt on the Enlightenment's presumptuous self-conceit. By making the lowly human intellect the measure of all truth, weren't the <i>philosophes</i> arbitrarily isolating humanity from the possibility of attaining a higher order of truth? Who would really want to inhabit a totally enlightened universe, denuded of mystery, plurality, and sublimity? What if ultimate reality weren't attainable by the prosaic methods of cognition or secular reason? What if, instead, the Absolute had more to do with the faculties of the imagination, intuition, or the unfathomable mysteries of the human unconscious?</p> <p>A cursory glance at the major cultural divide of our day suggests that, in many respects, we haven't gotten much beyond the landmark dispute between faith and reason that separated the leading lights in Hegel's time. For with the notable exception of Western Europe, on nearly every continent, religion seems to have found its second wind. And it would be difficult to deny that this global revival of spirituality has occurred in pointed reaction to the broken promises of enlightened modernity. Nineteenth-century utopians like Charles Fourier speculated that, once industrial society was perfected, rivers and lakes would pulsate with lemonade, public fountains would overflow with salmon, men would learn to fly, and wild beasts would do our hunting. Instead, as we confront on a daily basis the dislocations of Western modernity — teeming cities, urban blight, industrially scarred landscapes, massive pollution, and climate change of eschatological proportions — it seems as though Oswald Spengler's <i>Decline of the West</i> was more clairvoyant than Fourier's odes to universal harmony.</p> <p>Prominent secularization theorists like Peter L. Berger who, as recently as the 1960s, openly conceded religion's demise, are having to radically alter their forecasts. They have had to invent new concepts and categories to describe the phenomenon of religion's unexpected global resurgence. The philosopher Jurgen Habermas now felicitously refers to the advent of a "postsecular society" to characterize religiosity's remarkable staying power. In recent works such as <i>Between Naturalism and Religion</i> (Polity Press, 2008), he questions whether modern societies possess the moral resources to persevere without relying on their religious roots — the Judeo-Christian basis of secular ethics, for example. And Berger himself, who was once secularization theory's most vocal proponent, has expressed his change of heart in a book title, <i>The Desecularization of the World</i> (W.B. Eerdmans Publishing Company, 1999).</p> <p>Today academe is rife with discussions of "political theology," a term popularized during the 1920s by the German jurist Carl Schmitt. Schmitt meant by it that all modern political concepts — sovereignty, natural rights, the social contract — are secularized versions of theological concepts. He sought to call into question the legitimacy of the modern age, which in his view fed parasitically off of a nobler theological past. Along the same lines, two weighty anthologies edited by the Johns Hopkins philosopher Hent de Vries have stressed the centrality of political theology for comprehending the impasse of the political present, defined in terms of the sordid triumph of neoliberalism and globalization: <i>Political Theologies: Public Religions in a Post-Secular World</i> (Fordham University Press, 2006, with Lawrence E. Sullivan of Notre Dame) and <i>Minimal Theologies: Critiques of Secular Reason in Adorno and Levinas</i> (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2005, translated by Geoffrey Hale).</p> <p>The resurgence of political theology suggests that the promises of secular modernity have played themselves out and been found to be severely wanting. Formerly, Marxism provided a framework for radical social criticism. But with Communism's demise, the discourse of critique has seemingly been deprived of an immanent, secular basis. This is one key reason behind the revival of scholarly interest in political theology, which employs a messianic or salvific idiom to expose the failings of a predominantly "secular age."</p> <p>As de Vries and Sullivan observe in the preface to <i>Political Theologies:</i> "The model of limited governance in political liberalism ... and the unstoppable engine of globalization find their match in spreading expressions of discontentment and resistance, which are often articulated in <i>theologico-political</i> terms." An appeal to the promises of "negative theology" — although we can't claim to know what a redeemed humanity might look like, we can speculate about the debased social conditions that prevent its realization — was the plaintive note on which Theodor Adorno concluded his aphoristic masterwork, <i>Minima Moralia.</i> As Adorno poignantly put it: "The only philosophy that can be responsibly practiced in the face of despair is the attempt to contemplate all things as they would present themselves from the standpoint of redemption. ... Perspectives must be fashioned that displace and estrange the world, reveal it to be, with its rifts and crevices, as indigent and distorted as it will appear one day in the Messianic light." Adorno's dramatic shift away from the profane discourse of left-wing social criticism to the framework of negative theology is a path that numerous disillusioned former leftists have subsequently tread.</p> <p><i>A Secular Age</i> (Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 2007) is the title of a hefty tome — 874 pages, to be precise — published to much acclaim by the Canadian philosopher Charles Taylor. Two centuries ago, the German philosopher J.G. Fichte described the modern world as being in an age of "total moral corruption." To judge by Taylor's account, Fichte's verdict may have been excessively mild. The problem is that in modern life, religiosity has ceased to be an all-encompassing imperative. Instead, it resembles another "lifestyle choice," akin to whether one practices yoga or tai chi at the local gym. Taylor shows his hand forcefully and early on: "In our 'secular' societies, you can engage fully in politics without ever encountering God, that is, coming to a point where the crucial importance of the God of Abraham for this whole enterprise is brought home forcefully and unmistakably." Our public spaces, he writes, "have been emptied of God or of any reference to ultimate reality. ... This is in striking contrast to earlier periods, when Christian faith laid down authoritative prescriptions, often through the mouths of clergy, which could not be easily ignored. ..."</p> <p>In Taylor's view, the failings of a secular age are egregious and manifold. He claims that, to our detriment, we live in an era of "exclusive humanism." To him, it is self-evident that the ideal of "fullness" — of authentic "lived experience" — is tied to ends that surmount both the self as well as the profane ends of creaturely life. For Taylor, it is clear that such ends can only be religious or transcendent.</p> <p>Taylor contrives a new "faith based" lexicon of social criticism to indict the multifarious shortcomings of a secular age. In his view, modernity's "crisis of meaning" has reached grave and epidemic proportions. As denizens of a fallen world, we systematically lack commitments and allegiances that transcend the narrow confines of our own monadic egos. Our social existence has withered to the point where we have become a mass of atomized, "buffered" selves — living caricatures of Descartes's shallow, epistemological solipsism, <i>ego cogito sum.</i> As social beings we are incapable of creating cohesive and lasting bonds. For this reason, we have become incapable of community. Taylor castigates Protestantism — for him, Luther's 95 theses represent the beginning of the end of a transcendent, divinely ordained cosmos — insofar as it sacralized the everyday and thus obliterated the distance separating the sacred and profane. Deism, the religion of choice among the <i>philosophes,</i> comes in for a similar indictment, since it heretically sought to reconcile divinity with the strictures of a soulless and mechanistic Newtonian universe. According to the worldview of modern physics, what it means to be human is simply to be a body or an atom careening in space. Surely, existence doesn't get any more forlorn and godforsaken than that. "Authenticity" and "fullness" have become, at best, dim and distant memories.</p> <p>The problem is that, as a thinker, Taylor is constitutionally incapable of conceiving of meaning in secular terms. His account smacks of one-sidedness — it is insufficiently dialectical. In an era of multiculturalism and value pluralism, it is both impossible and undesirable to return to the inflexible prescriptions of Belief as such. Moreover, Taylor refuses to acknowledge that, traditionally, dogmatic, all-encompassing religious doctrines have stood in the way of meaningful self-determination. Historically, the fundamentalist credo whose loss he mourns has inhibited freedom of inquiry, tolerance, human rights, and political emancipation. A life course that is not self-chosen, but that instead is lived under the constraint of authoritarian value-prescriptions, be they secular or sacred, is not a meaningful human life.</p> <p>Moreover, Taylor is unconscionably silent when it comes to acknowledging the historical and political excesses of dogmatic belief: the intolerance, the persecutions, the expulsions, the forced conversions, the autos-da-fé. With Vatican II, the Catholic Church embraced the modern world — democracy, human rights, and religious pluralism — and thereby magnanimously avowed the errors of its previous ways. Taylor stubbornly refuses to walk down that road. Instead he wishes to turn back the clock — knowing all the while that that is impossible.</p> <p>The irony is that Taylor's book itself might be a primary symptom that the tide has begun to turn; that the "secular age" he describes is well on its way to becoming "resacralized"; that the age of belief is in fact making a noteworthy comeback.</p> <p>The crisis of meaning afflicting modernity was astutely diagnosed by the sociologist Max Weber who, in "Science as a Vocation" (1919), forecast that "the fate of our times is characterized by rationalization and intellectualization and, above all, by the 'disenchantment of the world.'" For Weber, the rise of rationalization meant that in the modern age all aspects of life are increasingly subjected to the solvent of instrumental reason. Rationality's advance causes meaning — and qualitative human experience in general — to atrophy.</p> <p>A vocal chorus of scientific skeptics has emerged to challenge religion's resurgence. In many respects, they have reformulated the <i>philosophes'</i> critique of belief, which they have supplemented and buttressed with neo-Darwinian claims. They argue that since religion is an illusion — an expression of "false consciousness" — and since illusions are detrimental to progress, the world would be a better place were the last vestiges of belief entirely extirpated.</p> <p>The problem is that, historically speaking, belief and meaning — or, to use Taylor's preferred term, "fullness" — have been integrally intertwined. Hence, to reject belief in the name of science potentially aggravates the crisis of meaning, with its attendant upsets and dislocations: alienation, social disorientation, anomie.</p> <p>The return of the sacred is in large measure a response to modernity's failings. However, religion's neo-Darwinian detractors seem unable to fathom the correlation. Moreover, they are peculiarly tone deaf, or "unmusical," when it comes to comprehending the very real attractions of belief and spirituality for a great many denizens of our hyperrationalized, disenchanted cosmos. Thus, in <i>The God Delusion</i> (Houghton Mifflin, 2006), Richard Dawkins's portrayal of belief is so dismissive and simplistic that one wonders why anyone would embrace such demented and malicious ideals. As Dawkins observes: "To the vast majority of believers around the world, religion all too closely resembles what you hear from the likes of [Pat] Robertson, [Jerry] Falwell or [Ted] Haggard, Osama bin Laden or the Ayatollah Khomeini." Dawkins goes on to praise a newspaper advertisement for a BBC documentary based on his book featuring a pre-September 11 image of lower Manhattan — with the World Trade Center towers prominently displayed — bearing the caption: "Imagine a world without religion." In other words: Religion and fanaticism go hand in hand; it is impossible to separate the two.</p> <p>In <i>Breaking the Spell: Religion as a Natural Phenomenon</i> (Viking, 2006), the philosopher Daniel C. Dennett begins with a parable that ultimately reveals more about the author's own antitheological prejudices than about his purported object of study. Dennett describes the suicidal behavior of an ant that repeatedly strives to climb to the top of a blade of grass where it can be better spied by potential predators. It turns out that the insect is the victim of a parasite that, to the ant's peril, is angling for the completion of its own reproductive cycle. Dennett treats this vignette as a cautionary tale about the perils of religion as an instance of demonic possession — albeit, ideational rather than microbial possession.</p> <p>A few pages later he stoops to purvey an even more unflattering and condescending analogy: "Think of people who are addicted to drugs, or gambling, or alcohol, or child pornography. They need all the help they can get." Dennett views <i>Breaking the Spell</i> as an intellectual "intervention" for believers who similarly need to be weaned from their unwholesome addiction to divinity and transcendence.</p> <p>But from a narrowly neo-Darwinian perspective, it is impossible to account for religion's indispensable role in forming the higher ideals that, as a species, help to make us genuinely civilized. Historically, religious ideals have inspired agape, compassion, selflessness, brotherly and sisterly love, community, and numerous good works. They have spurred political leaders like Mahatma Gandhi, the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr., and Desmond Tutu to oppose oppression and champion the cause of social equality. Religious conviction provided the moral suasion behind the 19th-century antislavery movement and has been a spur to numerous instances of humanitarian intervention.</p> <p>A genuine and fruitful dialogue between believers and nonbelievers is impossible unless one takes the standpoint of one's interlocutor seriously.</p> <p><i>Richard Wolin teaches history and comparative literature at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. He is author of</i> The Seduction of Unreason: The Intellectual Romance With Fascism From Nietzsche to Postmodernism <i>(Princeton University Press, 2004). A new book,</i> The Wind From the East: French Intellectuals, May '68, and the Chinese Cultural Revolution<i>, is scheduled to be published by Princeton University Press in 2010."</i></p>Donald Pretarihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14493535232127084725noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3408132757969446263.post-26799439497581763562009-06-20T23:16:00.000-07:002009-06-20T23:32:58.901-07:00didn't give the 3,000 or more protesters high odds against the security forces<a href="http://www.juancole.com/">TO BE NOTED:<br /></a><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br />"</span>Informed Comment <div id="blog-header"> <p><a href="http://www.juancole.com/"><b>Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion</b></a></p><p> Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute</p></div> <!-- Begin content --> <!-- Begin main column --> <h2 class="date-header">Sunday, June 21, 2009</h2> <!-- Begin .post --> <a name="6130158136650552079"></a> <h3 class="post-title"> Mousavi Defies Khamenei;<br />Police Attack Protesters at Inqilab Square;<br />Downtown Tehran Burning </h3> <div class="post-body"> <p> </p><p> Mir Hosain Mousavi <a href="http://www.ghalamnews.ir/news-21175.aspx">issued a powerful implicit denunciation of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei </a> on Saturday, and insisting again that the results of the presidential election be annulled in favor of wholly new elections. <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/21/2603905.htm"> ABC reports</a>:<br /></p><blockquote>' Mr Mousavi hit back at a speech by the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in which the Ayatollah ruled out any election fraud. In a statement posted on his newspaper website, Mr Mousavi said his demand for the annulment of the election was an undeniable right and vowed to side with the Iranian people in defending their rights. "If this huge volume of cheating and changing the votes... which has hurt people's trust, is presented as the very evidence of the lack of cheating, then it will butcher the republican aspect of the system and the idea that Islam is incompatible with a republic will be proven," Mr Mousavi said. The strong criticism headlined "the fifth statement of Mir Hossein Mousavi to the Iranian people: don't allow lies and cheaters to steal the flag of defending the Islamic system from you" was briefly pulled from the website but later reposted.' </blockquote><br /><br />Some reports say that Mousavi has privately told followers that if he is arrested, they should carry out a nation-wide strike.<br /><br />Mousavi has thrown down a gauntlet before the Supreme Leader and a battle has been joined. By the rules of the Khomeinist regime, only one of them can now survive. And perhaps neither will.<br /><br /><a href="http://icga.blogspot.com/2009/06/does-state-have-upper-hand.html"> A. Richard Norton asks at IC Global Affairs</a> whether the Iranian state really has the upper hand. He writes, "Dealing with civil disturbances is a labor intensive work. The natural response is to arrest the leaders and cut their communications, but those steps do not seem to be working to this point. People who are sufficiently inspired to join a demonstration at some risk to their lives constitute a movement not a bureaucratically organized unit. Particularly in fast-moving street confronations where wile, personality and courage are the currency unexpected leaders quickly emerge. As important, people learn quickly how to test, taunt and stretch the government forces. Provided the demonstrators desist from using deadly violence, their moral legitimacy will be enhanced. Plus, the government forces are hardly a monolith."<br /><br />Earlier on Saturday, <a href="http://www.africasia.com/services/news/newsitem.php?area=mideast&item=090620091707.6iz8dkel.php"> Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, the other reform candidate for president,</a> refused to attend a planned reconciliation meeting with the Council of Guardians, Iran's clerical senate that has been charged to recount ten percent of the ballots. The absence from this meeting, set up by Khamenei to smooth over the dispute, indicated that the reformers' confidence in Khamenei has completely collapsed.<br /><br />The politics of the ayatollahs in Qom with regard to the conflict <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_UG7e0OYDt0">are explored by Aljazeera English</a>:<br /><br /><object width="390" height="240"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/_UG7e0OYDt0&hl=en&fs=1&"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/_UG7e0OYDt0&hl=en&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="390" height="240"></embed></object><br /><br /><a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/21/2603905.htm">ABC added</a>,<br /><blockquote> 'Witnesses reported widespread violence as thousands of opposition supporters tried to stage another protest against last week's election. Protesters chanted "death to dictatorship" as they walked to the rally, but many were stopped and beaten by security forces, including the dreaded Basij militia. As many as 60 people were taken to hospital. Police used teargas and water cannons to disperse the crowd. ' </blockquote><br /><br />This observer from a distance in North Tehran, whose account appeared on an email list to which I am subscribed, didn't give the 3,000 or more protesters high odds against the security forces:<br /><br /><blockquote>' Tehran June 20th, 2009. 6 pm.<br /><br />. . . About five miles south of here [at Inqilab Square] pitched battles have been in progress between what appears to be a very large number of pro-reform supporters and Baseej security forces. Over their plainclothes, the latter are wearing standard issue sleeveless flak jackets, they are carrying riot squad helmets, a variety of sticks ranging from the traditional indigenous chomaq to more modern varieties such as extendable black electroshock stun batons and riot shields. They are, in other words, professionally equipped (and perhaps trained) riot police who perhaps misplaced their uniforms or have an unusual sense of style.<br /><br />As the numbers of demonstrators began swelling soon after 4 pm, the<br />security forces prevented people from traveling south to Enghelab Square.<br /><br />At Amir Abad tear gas was used to disperse the crowd. It is hard to know<br />the details of the mini-battles going on and too early to count the<br />causalities but it is not, sad to say, so difficult to place odds on the<br />outcome.<br /><br />There was one instance of demonstrators successfully chasing away<br />some security forces by sheer force of numbers and will. They raised a<br />stirring cheer with hundreds of hands in the air. Moments later the<br />security forces returned ten times more in force and pressed that crowd,<br />that happy crowd, back into, of all places, Freedom Street.<br /><br />Shots were fired into the air. Perhaps they were blanks, although a police officer<br />had said earlier in the day that they had received orders to shoot below the waist with live ammo in cases of coming under attack. (Immediately a joke is making the rounds to the effect that all orders from on high are "below the waist"!)<br /><br />But the advancing line of riot police had left their rear completely<br />unguarded and tens of Allahu Akbar chanting demonstrators, had they been<br />committed to violence (which they are not) could have attacked from the<br />rear trapping those poor security men. But that is not the nature of this<br />struggle; besides one just can't trap several dozen security people<br />without knowing what your going to do next. And since this movement is not<br />a military or violent one, not is it very organized, it could never<br />develop tactics like that.<br /><br />By now, 7 pm, the crowds are mostly dispersed. I have not heard reports of<br />any fatalities yet thank goodness. I have not heard about other parts of<br />the city. All mobile phones are switched off in the area so no contact can<br />be made. Interestingly the authorities have become much more efficient<br />over the last week. At they beginning, they switched of ALL the mobile<br />phone service, including text service, in the entire city so as to disrupt<br />communications among the movement. But today, they only switched it off in<br />the troubled neighborhoods. . . ' </blockquote><br /><br />Another observer said that the Basij hard line militia had positioned itself in Sanati Sharif University in Tehran and that military helicopters were ferrying arms and equipment to them. Security forces lined the streets and sent back up north any protesters trying to come into the city center from north Tehran.<br /><br />But this person maintained that the protesters were gathering with the intention of marching into the city after dusk.<br /><br />As it was, fires were burning on Tawhid Square in downtown, and one observer said that the capital was 'on fire.' Smoke could be seen billowing above Tehran.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-iran-protests21-2009jun21,0,6875740.story"> The LAT reports</a><br /><blockquote>' By nighttime, witnesses said, the unrest stretched from the side streets along Enghelab Street all the way from Azadi (Freedom) Street to Vali Asr Street, a miles-long corridor that is among the city's most important east-west thoroughfares. There were reports that disturbances had also broken out in other parts of the city, especially key squares in the north Tehran, but they could not be immediately confirmed.' </blockquote><br /><br />The LAT adds, "As the clock struck 10 p.m. today, parts of the city roared with chants of "God is great" and "Death to the dictator," as a nightly ritual of protest continued."<br /><br />Graphic video of protesting women shot down <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vlehNLfk90c"> can be found here</a>. Warning: Very disturbing.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/21/opinion/21tehran.html?_r=1"> Brave Roger Cohen is in Tehran for the NYT</a>, and he speaks of motorcycles set on fire sending columns of flames into the air, of teargas swirling about, of police wavering about whether they can attack fellow Iranians, and of the barricades being staffed by courageous women of all sorts.<br /><br />Around 10 pm GMT <a href="http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=2594"> some Iranian sites were reporting that tanks had entered</a> Azadi Square.<br /><br />Likewise there were eyewitness reports on my lists of an outbreak of violence between protesters and security men in various districts of the southwestern city of Shiraz. Spooked police there have sometimes randomly attacked persons who only look as though they might be protesters.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/20/statement-by-iranian-amer_n_218444.html"> Huffington has an important statement of Iranian Americans on the events in Iran</a>.<br /><br />End/ (Not Continued)<br /><br /><br /> <a href="http://www.juancole.com/2009/06/mousavi-defies-khamenei-police-attack.html">For "cont'd" postings, click here.</a> </div> <em>posted by Juan Cole</em><br /><br /><img alt="http://a.abcnews.go.com/images/International/cb63621e-9a71-4467-ab68-f7d833b28da0.jpg" src="http://a.abcnews.go.com/images/International/cb63621e-9a71-4467-ab68-f7d833b28da0.jpg" /><br /><br /><div class="description">Map locates the Azadi Square in Tehran, Iran, where at least seven people were killed in clashes</div> <div class="rightsHolder">Associated Press</div>Donald Pretarihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14493535232127084725noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3408132757969446263.post-56465062297607165152009-06-20T23:02:00.000-07:002009-06-20T23:06:38.514-07:00despite all the worldwide handwringing about Helicopter Ben and his printing presses, the dollar is still the daddy<a href="http://incakolanews.blogspot.com/2009/06/regional-currencies-update.html">TO BE NOTED: From Inca Kola News:</a><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">"With Bloomie blasting </span>silly headlines about Chile's Peso (CLP) being "<a style="font-weight: bold;" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=ao4r67T01YtA">the world's best currency this week</a>" and Colombia's "<span style="font-style: italic;">the worst</span>", I thought it was high time to revisit the evolution of local currencies versus the dollar and get a bit of perspective. This one year chart....<br /><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimRtgNnecR2SpAbz2HJrG5eKmrqK0Q6DsxWJwhzgpmE9AhhyphenhyphencNBcfw0yrPVmZjvMa2ZOBCHJ8vD_6NIXDquqU1jVS3e42Fa8xzK4HF0RiK01Efe4EJeD-RVGubV97r1WbS4b5KyF6guLNk/s1600-h/currencies_jun.png"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 215px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimRtgNnecR2SpAbz2HJrG5eKmrqK0Q6DsxWJwhzgpmE9AhhyphenhyphencNBcfw0yrPVmZjvMa2ZOBCHJ8vD_6NIXDquqU1jVS3e42Fa8xzK4HF0RiK01Efe4EJeD-RVGubV97r1WbS4b5KyF6guLNk/s400/currencies_jun.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5349441985548071314" border="0" /></a>.....shows the various rises and falls (<span style="font-style: italic;">or in Argentina's case rises and rises</span>) against the dollar for the major locally floated currencies (<span style="font-style: italic;">not much point in featuring the Vzla Bolivar Fuerte here, and Paraguay's Guaraní.....well, it's never going to attract the attention of George Soros, is it?</span>).<br /><br />The main takeaway? Some currencies are strengthing back more quickly than others. But in the end, when push comes to shove and despite all the worldwide handwringing about Helicopter Ben and his printing presses, the dollar is still the daddy. Every single major trade currency in LatAm is down against the dollar YoY, even the <span style="font-style: italic;">economic miracle </span>packaged up for saps with a bow and labelled Peru. And with base lending rates dropping fast all over the region as countries try to stimulate growth, the attraction of parking cash at higher risk is lessening, too.<br /><br />Anecdotally, if you ever need a lesson in what the term "reserve currency" really means come down here with a thousand British Pounds, or Euros, of Aussies or Loonies or even an ounce of gold in your pocket and try to exchange them for the local currency of your choice and at the same time get the same fair deal you'd get for the equivalent amount of USDs. <span style="font-style: italic;">They say travel broadens the mind..................</span>"Donald Pretarihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14493535232127084725noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3408132757969446263.post-42030864993492542702009-06-20T22:14:00.000-07:002009-06-20T23:14:06.143-07:00At the same time, the central bank may “aim to convince investors that tightening is not imminent,”<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a9L63P3ViN98">TO BE NOTED: From Bloomberg:<br /><br /><span class="news_story_title">"Spending, Home Sales Probably Increased: U.S. Economy Preview </span><br /></a> <div id="pe"> <div id="email"> <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a9L63P3ViN98"><br /></a><a onclick="setStyleById('article', 'fontSize', '13pt');" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a9L63P3ViN98"><span style="font-size:13;"></span></a> </div> </div> <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a9L63P3ViN98">By Shobhana Chandra</a> <p> June 21 (Bloomberg) -- Consumer spending in the U.S. probably rose in May for the first time in three months and home sales increased as Americans became more confident the recession will end this year, economists said before reports this week. </p> <p>Purchases advanced 0.3 percent, according to the median of 58 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey ahead of Commerce Department figures due June 26. Combined sales of new and existing homes likely improved to 5.18 million, capping the first back-to-back increase since 2006, the survey showed. </p> <p>“There’s more optimism as we get further away from last year’s financial-market chaos,” said <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Chris+Rupkey&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1" onmouseover="return escape( popwSearchNews( this ))">Chris Rupkey</a>, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. “Spending on the part of consumers seems to be picking up after a soft patch. It looks like housing has bottomed.” </p> <p>Government efforts to restore the flow of credit and prop up incomes are allowing households to take advantage of retailer discounts even as unemployment soars. Federal Reserve policy makers, meeting this week, may try to reassure investors that interest rates will stay low for the foreseeable future and acknowledge the economy has improved since their last gathering. </p> <p>The Commerce Department’s spending report may also show <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=PITLCHNG%3AIND" onmouseover="return escape( popwQuoteShort( this, 'PITLCHNG:IND' ))">incomes</a> increased 0.3 percent in May after gaining 0.5 percent the prior month, mainly reflecting the tax cuts and transfers linked to the administration’s stimulus plan, economists said. </p> <p>Home Sales </p> <p>Sales of <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=ETSLTOTL%3AIND" onmouseover="return escape( popwQuoteShort( this, 'ETSLTOTL:IND' ))">existing homes</a> climbed 3 percent to an annual pace of 4.82 million, the highest level since October, when the economy was in the throes of the financial crisis, according to the survey median. Foreclosure-driven declines in property values are helping to reduce the glut of unsold houses. The National Association of Realtors’ report is due June 23. </p> <p>The next day, Commerce data may show purchases of <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=NHSLTOT%3AIND" onmouseover="return escape( popwQuoteShort( this, 'NHSLTOT:IND' ))">new homes</a> rose 2.3 percent in May to an annual pace of 360,000. </p> <p>In another sign of the improving economic outlook, the Reuters/University of Michigan final index of <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CONSSENT%3AIND" onmouseover="return escape( popwQuoteShort( this, 'CONSSENT:IND' ))">consumer sentiment</a> probably rose to 69 in June, the highest level in nine months, from 68.7 in May, economists’ forecasts show. The figures are due on June 26. </p> <p>Business in Las Vegas has “clearly bottomed out,” said <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Jim+Murren&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1" onmouseover="return escape( popwSearchNews( this ))">Jim Murren</a>, chief executive officer of casino company MGM Mirage. “It’s just a matter of how long we’re going to be on the bottom, and that is what we’re debating internally,” Murren said in a telephone interview last week. “The business trends are no longer deteriorating.” </p> <p>More Upbeat </p> <p>Fed officials on June 24, at the conclusion of their two- day meeting, may say the U.S. is showing signs of emerging from the worst recession in a half century. Following their last meeting in April, policy makers said the economy will “remain weak for a time.” The central bankers will also keep the benchmark interest rate in the range of zero to 0.25 percent, economists said. </p> <p>“The Fed is likely to sound more upbeat on growth prospects,” <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Dean+Maki&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1" onmouseover="return escape( popwSearchNews( this ))">Dean Maki</a>, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital in New York, said in a note to clients. At the same time, the central bank may “aim to convince investors that tightening is not imminent,” he said. </p> <p>Such an announcement may be an attempt by policy makers to prevent borrowing costs from climbing even more, undermining tentative signs of recovery. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note reached as high as 3.95 percent at the close on June 10, after being as low as 2.54 percent on March 18, the day the Fed announced it would buy Treasury securities in a bid to push borrowing costs down. </p> <p>Some parts of the economy are lagging. A Commerce report due June 24 may show <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=DGNOCHNG%3AIND" onmouseover="return escape( popwQuoteShort( this, 'DGNOCHNG:IND' ))">bookings</a> for goods meant to last several years slid 0.8 percent in May, the survey showed. Durable-goods orders excluding transportation equipment may have also fallen. </p> <p>Gross domestic product shrank at a 5.7 percent pace in the first quarter, the same as estimated in May, revised figures from Commerce may show. Following a 6.3 percent pace of contraction in the last three months of 2008, the drop capped the worst six-month performance in five decades. The figures are due on June 25. </p> <br /><pre> Bloomberg Survey<br /><br />================================================================<br /> Release Period Prior Median<br />Indicator Date Value Forecast<br />================================================================<br />Exist Homes Mlns 6/23 May 4.68 4.82<br />Exist Homes MOM% 6/23 May 2.9% 3.0%<br />Durables Orders MOM% 6/24 May 1.7% -0.8%<br />Durables Ex-Trans MOM% 6/24 May 0.4% -0.4%<br />New Home Sales ,000’s 6/24 May 352 360<br />New Home Sales MOM% 6/24 May 0.3% 2.3%<br />GDP Annual QOQ% 6/25 1Q F -5.7% -5.7%<br />Personal Consump. QOQ% 6/25 1Q F 1.5% 1.5%<br />GDP Prices QOQ% 6/25 1Q F 2.8% 2.8%<br />Core PCE Prices QOQ% 6/25 1Q F 1.5% 1.5%<br />Initial Claims ,000’s 6/25 13-Jun 608 600<br />Cont. Claims ,000’s 6/25 6-Jun 6687 6707<br />Pers Inc MOM% 6/26 May 0.5% 0.3%<br />Pers Spend MOM% 6/26 May -0.1% 0.3%<br />PCE Deflator YOY% 6/26 May 0.4% 0.1%<br />Core PCE Prices MOM% 6/26 May 0.3% 0.1%<br />Core PCE Prices YOY% 6/26 May 1.9% 1.8%<br />U of Mich Conf. Index 6/26 June F 69.0 69.0<br />================================================================<br /></pre> <p> To contact the reporter on this story: <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Shobhana+Chandra&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1" onmouseover="return escape( popwSearchNews( this ))">Shobhana Chandra</a> in Washington at <a href="mailto:schandra1@bloomberg.net" onmouseover="return escape( popwSendEmail( this ))">schandra1@bloomberg.net</a> </p>Donald Pretarihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14493535232127084725noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3408132757969446263.post-29137711927438264752009-06-20T22:13:00.000-07:002009-06-20T23:10:59.766-07:00the Fed talking about an exit strategy, so that helps to contain longer-term inflation pressures<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aGOFe7e8P4Pk#">TO BE NOTED: From Bloomberg:<br /><br /><span class="news_story_title">"Treasuries Rise, Led By 30-Year Bonds, as Consumer Prices Fall </span><br /></a> <div id="pe"> <div id="email"> <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aGOFe7e8P4Pk#"><br /></a><a onclick="setStyleById('article', 'fontSize', '13pt');" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aGOFe7e8P4Pk#"><span style="font-size:13;"></span></a> </div> </div> <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aGOFe7e8P4Pk#">By Dakin Campbell and Susanne Walker</a> <p> June 20 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries rose, with 30-year <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USGG30YR%3AIND" onmouseover="return escape( popwQuoteShort( this, 'USGG30YR:IND' ))">bond yields</a> falling the most in five weeks, as a report showing consumer prices tumbled the most in six decades eased concern efforts to revive the economy would generate inflation. </p> <p>U.S. debt gained as traders bet losses that pushed 10-year <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USGG10YR%3AIND" onmouseover="return escape( popwQuoteShort( this, 'USGG10YR:IND' ))">yields</a> above 4 percent and 30-year <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USGG30YR%3AIND" onmouseover="return escape( popwQuoteShort( this, 'USGG30YR:IND' ))">bond yields</a> to near 5 percent last week wouldn’t be sustained. The cost of living dropped 1.3 percent in the year ended in May, the most since 1950. The Treasury said it will sell a record $104 billion in two-, five- and seven-year notes next week. </p> <p>“There are a number of factors that seem to favor longer- term bonds,” said <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Christopher+Sullivan&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1" onmouseover="return escape( popwSearchNews( this ))">Christopher Sullivan</a>, who oversees $1.4 billion as chief investment officer at United Nations Federal Credit Union in New York. “Foremost among them was valuation. They shot up to 4 percent and value investors came in. That was then confirmed by the inflation data.” </p> <p>Thirty-year <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USGG30YR%3AIND" onmouseover="return escape( popwQuoteShort( this, 'USGG30YR:IND' ))">yields</a> fell 14 basis points this week, or 0.14 percentage points, to 4.50 percent, according to BGCantor Market Data. It was the most since shedding 19 basis points in the week ended May 15. The 4.25 percent security due May 2039 rose 2 6/32, or $21.88 per $1,000 face amount, to 95 27/32. </p> <p>Ten-year <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USGG10YR%3AIND" onmouseover="return escape( popwQuoteShort( this, 'USGG10YR:IND' ))">yields</a> fell one basis point to 3.79 percent. Yields reached as high as 3.88 percent. </p> <p>Exit Strategy </p> <p>Longer-term debt outperformed shorter-term securities as investors prepared for next week’s auctions. The U.S. will sell $40 billion in two-year notes on June 23, $37 billion of five- year debt the following day and $27 billion of seven-year securities on June 25. </p> <p>“The long end is performing relatively well versus the front end because of the supply that we’re getting next week,” said <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Alex+Li&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1" onmouseover="return escape( popwSearchNews( this ))">Alex Li</a>, an interest-rate strategist in New York at Credit Suisse Securities USA LLC, one of 17 primary dealers that trade with the Federal Reserve. “It also relates to the Fed talking about an exit strategy, so that helps to contain longer-term inflation pressures.” </p> <p>Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Thomas+Hoenig&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1" onmouseover="return escape( popwSearchNews( this ))">Thomas Hoenig</a> said the central bank is developing plans to reverse the “enormous amount” of monetary stimulus to prevent inflation from accelerating as the economy picks up. He spoke yesterday in an interview on CNBC Television. </p> <p>President <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Barack+Obama&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1" onmouseover="return escape( popwSearchNews( this ))">Barack Obama</a> signed a $787 billion, two-year economic stimulus plan in February. The Fed announced on March 18 it would buy up to $300 billion in Treasuries over six months to lower consumer borrowing costs, as well as purchasing $1.25 trillion of bonds back by home loans. </p> <p>FOMC Meeting </p> <p>All told, the U.S. government and the central bank have spent, lent or committed $12.8 trillion, an amount that approaches the value of everything produced in the country last year, to stem the longest recession since the 1930s. </p> <p>The difference between rates on 10-year notes and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, or TIPS, which reflects the outlook among traders for consumer prices, fell to 1.91 percentage points yesterday, from 2.01 percentage points two weeks ago. The figure has averaged 2.23 percentage points in the past five years. </p> <p>The Federal Open Market Committee concludes its two-day meeting June 24 amid speculation officials are considering whether to use the policy statement to suppress any speculation they’re prepared to raise interest rates as soon as this year. The Fed’s <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=FDTR%3AIND" onmouseover="return escape( popwQuoteShort( this, 'FDTR:IND' ))">target rate</a> is at a record low range of zero to 0.25 percent. </p> <p>Traders reduced bets policy makers will raise borrowing costs by the end of the year, according to futures on the Chicago Board of Trade. Expectations fell to a 47 percent chance, from more than 60 percent a week ago. </p> <p>Foreseeable Future </p> <p>“We don’t see a rate hike occurring anytime in the foreseeable future,” said <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Kevin+Flanagan&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1" onmouseover="return escape( popwSearchNews( this ))">Kevin Flanagan</a>, a Purchase, New York- based fixed-income strategist for Morgan Stanley Smith Barney. “The market doesn’t believe the Fed will make an announcement about buying more Treasuries.” </p> <p>The consumer price index rose 0.1 percent in May after being unchanged a month earlier, the Labor Department said June 17 in Washington. That’s below the 0.3 percent forecast by 75 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. </p> <p>Investors also bought Treasuries as a safe haven yesterday after Moody’s Investors Service said it is considering cutting California’s credit rating. </p> <p>California’s rating, already the lowest among U.S. states, may be cut by Moody’s as government leaders seek ways to eliminate a $24 billion budget deficit. The move would affect $72 billion of debt, Moody’s said in a statement. California’s full faith and credit pledge is rated A2 by Moody’s, five steps below top investment grade. </p> <p>Mortgage Rates </p> <p>U.S. government debt handed investors a loss of 4.3 percent since March through yesterday, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes. U.S. securities are set for the worst quarter since losing 5.9 percent in the first three months of 1980, the data show. </p> <p>Rising yields have complicated the central bank’s efforts to lower consumer borrowing costs. <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=ILM3NAVG%3AIND" onmouseover="return escape( popwQuoteShort( this, 'ILM3NAVG:IND' ))">Thirty-year fixed-rate mortgages</a> rose to 5.43 percent on June 18, the first gain in six days, from as low as 4.85 percent in April, according to Bankrate.com in North Palm Beach, Florida. </p> <p>The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=OUTFGAF%3AIND" onmouseover="return escape( popwQuoteShort( this, 'OUTFGAF:IND' ))">general economic index</a> climbed to minus 2.2 from minus 22.6 in May, the bank said on June 18. The Conference Board’s index of U.S. leading economic indicators rose more than forecast in May for the second straight month. </p> <p>To contact the reporters on this story: <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Dakin+Campbell&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1" onmouseover="return escape( popwSearchNews( this ))">Dakin Campbell</a> in New York at <a href="mailto:dcampbell27@bloomberg.net" onmouseover="return escape( popwSendEmail( this ))">dcampbell27@bloomberg.net</a>; <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Susanne+Walker&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1" onmouseover="return escape( popwSearchNews( this ))">Susanne Walker</a> in New York at <a href="mailto:swalker33@bloomberg.net" onmouseover="return escape( popwSendEmail( this ))">swalker33@bloomberg.net</a>. </p> <i>Last Updated: June 20, 2009 08:00 EDT</i> "Donald Pretarihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14493535232127084725noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3408132757969446263.post-81831091911156056592009-06-20T21:57:00.000-07:002009-06-20T22:06:17.202-07:00Alas, a solution that does not address the cost of care, and negotiate new prices for the services offered will not work<a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204005504574235751720822322.html">TO BE NOTED: From the WSJ:<br /></a><br /><img alt="The Wall Street Journal" src="http://online.wsj.com/img/wsj_print.gif" /> <div class="articleHeadlineBox headlineType-newswire"><ul class="cMetadata metadataType-articleStamp"><li class="articleSection first">GENERAL NEWS</li><li class="dateStamp"><small>JUNE 20, 2009</small></li></ul> <!-- ID: SB10001424052970204005504574235751720822322 --> <!-- TYPE: General News --> <!-- DISPLAY-NAME: --> <!-- PUBLICATION: The Wall Street Journal Interactive Edition --> <!-- DATE: 2009-06-20 00:01 --> <!-- COPYRIGHT: Dow Jones & Company, Inc. --> <!-- ORIGINAL-ID: --> <!-- article start --> <!-- CODE=STATISTIC SYMBOL=FREE CODE=STATISTIC SYMBOL=FREE CODE=STATISTIC SYMBOL=FREE CODE=INDUSTRY SYMBOL=4500 CODE=INDUSTRY SYMBOL=4530 CODE=INDUSTRY SYMBOL=DHC CODE=INDUSTRY SYMBOL=4000 CODE=JOURNAL SYMBOL=J/HLH CODE=JOURNAL SYMBOL=J/WKJ --> <h5>Essay</h5><h1>The Myth of Prevention </h1><h2 class="subhead">A doctor explains why it doesn’t pay to stay well. Decoding what works, what falls short in Obama’s plans to reform health care </h2></div><br /><div id="article_pagination_top" class="articlePagination"> </div><h3 class="byline">By <a href="http://online.wsj.com/search/search_center.html?KEYWORDS=ABRAHAM+VERGHESE&ARTICLESEARCHQUERY_PARSER=bylineAND">ABRAHAM VERGHESE</a> </h3> <div class="insetContent embedType-image imageFormat-G"><div class="insetTree"><div class="insettipUnit"><img src="http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/PT-AL863_Cover__G_20090619134814.jpg" alt="" border="0" vspace="0" width="553" height="369" hspace="0" /> <cite>Art Resource, NY</cite> <p class="targetCaption">A doctor tends to a mortally ill child in Sir Luke Fildes’s 1891 painting ‘The Doctor.’</p> </div></div></div><p>When President Truman had his shot at universal health care in 1949, the American Medical Association unfortunately made use of Sir Luke Fildes’s famous painting, “The Doctor,” in a negative campaign. “The Doctor” happens to be my favorite painting, mostly because of the story behind it: Sir Luke Fildes lost his oldest son, Phillip, on Christmas Eve, 1877; despite the tragedy, he was so impressed with the physician who cared for the child, that for his first commission from sugar merchant Henry Tate (who would go on to establish a collection and gallery in London by his name) he chose to depict “the physician in our time.”</p> <p>You’ve probably seen a print: At the center of the canvas a mortally ill child lies on a makeshift bed in what is clearly a fisherman’s cottage. The doctor seated by his patient, leans forward, chin on his hand, intently studying the child. His posture and gaze suggest that nothing less than the child’s recovery (or death) would lead him to break his vigil. The anxious parents are in the background waiting for some sign from the doctor. </p> <p>The AMA used this image on thousands of posters, adding the caption, “Keep Politics Out of this Picture.” They hoped to convince the public (and did) that government intervention would mean the end of home visits; government intervention would eliminate what Fildes captures so well: the sacred bond between doctor and patient.</p> <p>“Sacred bond,” alas, is not among the descriptors I hear when patients tell me what they think of us or our health care system. The descriptors fit to publish include “inattentive,” “no-one-in-charge” and “money grubbing.” In fact, a thoughtful lay friend recently said to me in the context of her medical care, “Face it, Abraham, medicine is corrupt.” She stated this casually, as if it were an obvious and well-known fact, not waiting to see if I would agree. At the time I remember that I sputtered. I wanted to protest but the sounds would not come out. That word “corrupt” gnawed at me for days. </p> <div class="insetContent insetCol3wide embedType-image imageFormat-D"><div class="insetTree"> <div id="articleThumbnail_1" class="insettipUnit insetZoomTarget"><div class="insetZoomTargetBox"><div class="insettipBox"><div class="insettip"><p><a>View Full Image</a></p></div></div><a><img src="http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/PT-AL919_health_D_20090619182905.jpg" border="0" vspace="0" width="262" height="174" hspace="0" /></a></div> <cite>Associated Press</cite> <p class="targetCaption">President Obama in a speech to doctors promised to let them return to the work of healing as part of his proposed health-care reform.<br /></p><p class="targetCaption">I had another such sputtering moment during the course of President Obama’s speech to the AMA this week, but I shall come to that presently. The speech was remarkable for many things, but most of all for the way the audience of physician members sat and took their lumps. The fact that they clapped at times, and even gave him a standing ovation, surprised me. The speech was a model of clarity, full of the kinds of truths we in medicine have managed to dodge and distort for years. But keep in mind he was speaking to the AMA, the organization most responsible for conditioning the public to respond to the words “socialized medicine” with the fight-or-flight response one has on seeing a rabid skunk approaching. </p> </div></div></div> <p>President Obama pointed to the problem of “a system of incentives where the more tests and services are provided, the more money we pay.” As if to rub it in, he added, “And a lot of people in this room know what I’m talking about.” </p> <p>Oooo, there was that “corrupt” word again, even though he did not say it. This part of the speech drew no applause, just stony silence. </p> <p>Yes, Mr. President, a lot of people inside and outside that room know exactly what you are talking about. A skewed reimbursement scheme set up by Medicare, a system that pays generously when you do something <em>to</em> a patient, but is stingy when you do something <em>for</em> a patient, is largely to blame. Cut, poke, sew, burn, insert, inject, dilate, stent, remove and you get very well paid; if you learn how to do this efficiently, maybe set up your own outpatient center so you can do it to more people in a shorter time (which is what happened when this payment system was put in place in 1989) and you are paid even more. If, however, you are a primary care physician, and if, just like the young doctor who saw my parents yesterday, you spend time getting to know your patients, and are willing to play quarterback when your patient enters the hospital, so that you can herd the consultants and guide the family through a bewildering experience that gets surreal if you are in the intensive care unit, then you may have great personal satisfaction but you will make five to tenfold less than your colleagues in the doing-to disciplines. </p> <p>Our reimbursement system, as the president put it, “is a model that has taken the pursuit of medicine from a profession—a calling—to a business.” </p> <p>My wife tried to tell me the other day that she had just ‘saved’ us money by buying on sale a couple of things for which we have no earthly use. She then proceeded to tote up all our ‘savings’ from said purchases and gave me a figure that represented the money we had generated, which we could now spend . . .she had me going for a minute. </p> <p>I mention this because I have similar problems with the way President Obama hopes to pay for the huge and costly health reform package he has in mind that will cover all Americans; he is counting on the “savings” that will come as a result of investing in preventive care and investing in the electronic medical record among other things. It’s a dangerous and probably an incorrect projection. </p> <p>Prevention of a disease, we all assume, should save us money, right? An ounce of prevention . . . ? Alas, If only such aphorisms were true we’d hand out apples each day and our problems would be over.</p> <div class="insetContent insetCol3wide embedType-image imageFormat-D"><div class="insetTree"> <div id="articleThumbnail_2" class="insettipUnit insetZoomTarget"><div class="insetZoomTargetBox"><div class="insettipBox"><div class="insettip"><p><a>View Full Image</a></p></div></div><a><img src="http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/PT-AL923_health_D_20090619183004.jpg" border="0" vspace="0" width="262" height="174" hspace="0" /></a></div> <cite>Getty Images</cite> <p class="targetCaption">Doctors perform heart surgery at Childrens Hospital Los Angeles.<br /></p><p class="targetCaption">It is true that if the prevention strategies we are talking about are behavioral things—eat better, lose weight, exercise more, smoke less, wear a seat belt—then they cost very little and they do save money by keeping people healthy. </p> </div></div></div> <p>But if your preventive strategy is medical, if it involves us, if it consists of screening, finding medical conditions early, shaking the bushes for high cholesterols, or abnormal EKGs, markers for prostate cancer such as PSA, then more often than not you don’t save anything and you might generate more medical costs. Prevention is a good thing to do, but why equate it with saving money when it won’t? Think about this: discovering high cholesterol in a person who is feeling well, is really just discovering a risk factor and not a disease; it predicts that you have a greater chance of having a heart attack than someone with a normal cholesterol. Now you can reduce the probability of a heart attack by swallowing a statin, and it will make good sense for you personally, especially if you have other risk factors (male sex, smoking etc).. But if you are treating a population, keep in mind that you may have to treat several hundred people to prevent one heart attack. Using a statin costs about $150,000 for every year of life it saves in men, and even more in women (since their heart-attack risk is lower)—I don’t see the savings there. </p> <p>Or take the coronary calcium scans or heart scan, which most authorities suggest is not a test to be done on people who have no symptoms, and which I think of as the equivalent of the miracle glow-in-the-dark minnow lure advertised on late night infommercials. It’s a money maker, without any doubt, and some institutions actually advertise on billboards or in newspapers, luring you in for this ‘cheap’ and ‘painless’ way to get a look at your coronary arteries. If you take the test and find you have no calcium on your coronaries, you have learned that . . . you have no calcium on your coronaries. If they do find calcium on your coronaries, then my friend, you have just bought yourself some major worry. You will want to know, What does this mean? Are my coronary arteries narrowed to a trickle? Am I about to die? Is it nothing? Asking such questions almost inevitably leads to more tests: a stress test, an echocardiogram, a stress echo, a cardiac catheterization, stents and even cardiac bypass operations—all because you opted for a ‘cheap’ and ‘painless’ test—if only you’d never seen that billboard.</p> <div class="insetCol3wide"><div class="insetContent"> <h3 class="first">The Road to Recovery</h3> <p>Reformers and the American Medical Association have been at odds about health-care policy for nearly a century.</p> <div class="insetContent embedType-image imageFormat-A"><div class="insetTree"><div class="insettipUnit"><img src="http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/PT-AL920_hcare__A_20090619180429.jpg" alt="" border="0" vspace="0" width="76" height="76" hspace="0" /> <cite>Hulton Archive/Getty Images</cite> </div></div></div> <p> <strong>1921:</strong> Women’s groups like the League of Women Voters and the Women’s Joint Congressional Committee work to pass the Sheppard-Towner Act, which allows the federal government to give aid to states for maternity and child health programs.</p> <p> The AMA calls the act “socialized medicine” and opposes its renewal in 1927. </p> <p> <strong>1935:</strong> President Franklin Roosevelt signs the Social Security Act, which does not include health care. </p> <p>A 1930s article in the Journal of the American Medical Association written by the publication’s editor, Morris Fishbein, equates health insurance with “socialism, communism, inciting to revolution.” Some scholars believe that AMA’s powerful lobby against health insurance influenced the president’s decision to leave it out. </p> <div class="insetContent embedType-image imageFormat-A"><div class="insetTree"><div class="insettipUnit"><img src="http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/PT-AL922_hcare__A_20090619183431.jpg" alt="" border="0" vspace="0" width="76" height="76" hspace="0" /> <cite>Associated Press</cite> </div></div></div> <p> <strong>1949:</strong> President Truman tries to implement a national health-care program that provides all communities with access to doctors and hospitals. </p> <p>The AMA launches a campaign using Sir Luke Fildes’s painting “The Doctor” and the slogan “Keep politics out of the picture.”</p> <p> <strong>1962:</strong> President Kennedy pushes to extend Social Security to include health insurance for the elderly. </p> <p>AMA runs “Operation Coffee Cup,” a public relations campaign undertaken by the AMA Women’s Auxiliary. The actor Ronald Reagan lends his support, records an LP called “Ronald Reagan Speaks Out Against Socialized Medicine.”</p> <div class="insetContent embedType-image imageFormat-A"><div class="insetTree"><div class="insettipUnit"><img src="http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/PT-AL921_hcare__A_20090619175754.jpg" alt="" border="0" vspace="0" width="76" height="76" hspace="0" /> <cite>Getty Images</cite> </div></div></div> <p> <strong>1993:</strong> Hillary Clinton proposes a health-care reform package. In a speech to the AMA she suggests “a new bargain” in which the White House would limit malpractice lawsuits and free doctors from onerous rules if they lend their support.</p> <p>The AMA opposes central elements of the plan, including federal regulation of insurance premiums, cuts in growth of Medicare and Medicaid. </p> <p> <strong>2009:</strong> President Barack Obama delivers a speech to the AMA about his proposals for health-care reform. In addition to calling for a public health insurance plan, he proposes a payment system that rewards doctors for the quality of the care they provide rather than the quantity. </p> <p>An AMA statement says the organization supports health-care reform and “is committed to affordable, high quality health coverage for all Americans.”</p> <p> <em>--Juliet Chung and Abraham Verghese</em> </p> </div></div><p>Poor McAllen, Texas. It happens to be the focus of a recent “New Yorker” piece by Atul Gawande, a piece that President Obama referred to in his speech to the AMA, because health care costs in McAllen are twice that of comparable cities while health outcomes are no different. The reasons are complex but probably because good physicians are ordering lots of tests, calling in lots of consultants, making good use of the equipment they own and the imaging centers they might have a stake in (and yes, they think they can be objective in ordering an MRI or CAT scan that sends the patient to their own facility); it has to do with hospitals competing with each other for the kinds of patients with conditions that are reimbursed well, and wooing patients, wooing high-volume physicians (some of whom are invited to invest in the hospital) to make full use of their PET scan, their gamma knife, their robotic-surgery facility, their cancer center, their birthing center. That was Atul Gawande’s conclusion, and I would concur. </p> <p>But I’d like to officially let McAllen off the hook and say that having practiced in five states, including 15 years in the great state of Texas, we are all complicit in practicing just that kind of medicine if you look hard enough and if you looked at us individually. Conflicts of interest are rife; they are almost the rule. So is the ability to wear blinders so we are (mostly) oblivious to our conflict. </p> <p>Which brings me to my problem with the president’s plan: despite being an admirer, I just don’t see how the president can pull off the reform he has in mind without cost cutting. I recently came on a phrase in an article in the journal “Annals of Internal Medicine” about an axiom of medical economics: a dollar spent on medical care is a dollar of income for someone. I have been reciting this as a mantra ever since. It may be the single most important fact about health care in America that you or I need to know. It means that all of us—doctors, hospitals, pharmacists, drug companies, nurses, home health agencies, and so many others—are drinking at the same trough which happens to hold $2.1 trillion, or 16% of our GDP. Every group who feeds at this trough has its lobbyists and has made contributions to Congressional campaigns to try to keep their spot and their share of the grub. Why not?—it’s hog heaven. But reform cannot happen without cutting costs, without turning people away from the trough and having them eat less. If you do that, you have to be prepared for the buzz saw of protest that dissuaded Roosevelt, defeated Truman’s plan and scuttled Hillary Clinton’s proposal. The good news is that the AMA, representing perhaps 15% of active practicing physicians, is not as powerful as it was in Truman’s time, and in the eyes of the public and many in medicine, it’s identity in the reform debate, is that of a protectionist, self-serving, organization; as a result, even their most progressive statements are viewed with suspicion. I’ve found the views of the American Medical Student Association particularly exciting—the next generation of physicians I sense has a deeper commitment to affordable health care for all than ours; they are, simply put, better people.</p> <p>We may not like it, but the only way a government can control costs is by wielding great purchasing power to get concessions on the price of drugs, physician fees, and hospital services; the only way they can control administrative costs is by providing a simplified service, yes, the Medicare model (with a 3% overhead), and not allowing private insurance to cherry-pick patients (some of them operating with 30% overheads, the cost passed on to you). </p> <p>Contrary to what we might think, comparative studies show us that the US when compared to other advanced countries, does not have a sicker population: we actually use fewer prescription drugs and we have shorter hospital stays (though we manage to do a lot more imaging in those short stays—got to feed the MRI machines). The bottom line is that our health care is costly because it is costly, not because we deliver more care, better care or special care. Alas, a solution that does not address the cost of care, and negotiate new prices for the services offered will not work; a solution that does not put caps on spending and that instead projects cost-savings here and there also won’t cut it. Leaders have to make tough and unpopular decisions, and if he is to be the first President to successfully accomplish reform there does not seem to be much choice: cut costs. </p> <p>To come back to my favorite painting: a computer cannot take the place of the doctor in Fildes’s painting; an electronic medical record (EMR) may or may not save money (it won’t be anywhere as much as is projected) but what it will do is ensure that we doctors, nurses, therapists, particularly in hospitals will be spending more and more time focused on the computer, communicating with each other, ordering and getting tests, buffing and caring for our virtual patient—the iPatient is my term for this phenomenon—while the patient in the bed wonders where everybody is. Having worked exclusively for the last seven years or so in hospitals that have electronic medical records (EMR), I have felt for some time that the patient in the bed has become an icon for the real focus of our attention, the iPatient. Yes, electronic medical records help prevent medication errors and are a blessing in so many ways, but they won’t hold the patient’s hand for you, they won’t explain to the family what is going on. </p> <p>I have a print of the Fildes painting close at hand, a reminder that all the marvels of science, all the advances of medicine don’t replace what patients want of their doctors and what most of us wanted to offer when we felt the calling to medicine: the opportunity to be fully present at the bedside, to bring the human comfort that only the presence of an attentive physician can bring, to convey to patient and family the unspoken promise, “I will stay with you through thick and thin.” That’s a privilege I won’t trade for anything you can offer me. The line in the president’s speech to the AMA, a line that got great applause, was this and it says it all: “You entered this profession to be healers—and that’s what our health-care system should let you be.” </p> <cite class="tagline">—Abraham Verghese is Professor and Senior Associate Chair for the Theory and Practice of Medicine at Stanford University. He is the author of the novel “Cutting For Stone.”</cite>Donald Pretarihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14493535232127084725noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3408132757969446263.post-17678464166172923432009-06-20T21:51:00.000-07:002009-06-20T21:55:47.350-07:00then promptly shot full of holes by promoters who understand how real human beings think and behave<a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124545477468032915.html">TO BE NOTED: From the WSJ:<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br />"</span>About Time: Regulation Based On Human Nature </a><div class="bylineIconTree"> <div class="bylineIconBox"> <ul class="cMetadata metadataType-articleCredits"><li class="byline"> <h3>By JASON ZWEIG</h3> </li></ul> <div class="icon"> <img src="http://online.wsj.com/img/renocol_JasonZweig.gif" alt="Columnist's name" width="78" height="78" /></div> </div> </div><br /><div id="article_pagination_top" class="articlePagination"> </div><p>Franklin D. Roosevelt sent Wall Street to the torture rack. Barack Obama is sending Wall Street to the psychology lab.</p> <p>A key component of President Obama's financial-reform package is its proposed Consumer Financial Protection Agency, which would apply findings from the science of human behavior to ensure "transparency, simplicity, fairness, and access" for borrowers, savers and other financial consumers.</p> <p>That could make it a lot harder for a part-time worker to end up with an exploding mortgage that eats all her take-home pay. It might even mean that regulators will finally pay attention to the visual presentation of financial data -- color, graphics and other factors that exert powerful sway over your decisions.</p> <div class="insetContent insetCol3wide embedType-image imageFormat-D"><div class="insetTree"> <div class="insetButton"><div class="insetZoomTargetBox"><div class="insettipBox"><div class="insettip"><p><a>View Full Image</a></p></div></div><a><img src="http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/MI-AX254_WINVES_D_20090619171607.jpg" alt="regulation based on human nature" border="0" vspace="0" width="262" height="174" hspace="0" /></a></div> <cite>Heath Hinegardner</cite><br /><br />The proposal is an outgrowth of "Nudge," the brilliant book published last year by two University of Chicago scholars, economist Richard H. Thaler and law professor Cass R. Sunstein. A longtime friend of President Obama, Prof. Sunstein has been nominated to head the White House's Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, a job often described as "the regulation czar."</div></div></div> <p>In my view, a behavioral approach is decades overdue. Financial regulations always have been written mainly by lawyers and legislators -- then promptly shot full of holes by promoters who understand how real human beings think and behave.</p> <p>Lawyers think that the mere disclosure of risks and conflicts of interest provides the information that investors or consumers need. That is a fantasy. Faced with 47 pages' worth of "Risk Factors," investors come away with a warm glow of safety; risks that seem hard to understand appear unlikely to happen, and people who provide you with lots of detail seem likely to be honest.</p> <p>To inform anyone, information has to be accessible. The central idea in "Nudge" is what Profs. Thaler and Sunstein call "choice architecture" -- the context, format and framing of how decisions are presented to consumers. You will eat more nuts from a big bowl than from a small bowl. You will choose surgery if you are told it offers a 90% chance of survival; you will reject it if you are told there is a 10% chance it will kill you. The same people who would skip investing in a 401(k) if they had to "opt in" to the plan<em> will</em> participate if they have to "opt out" in order to skip it.</p> <p>Prof. Sunstein, who is awaiting Senate confirmation in his post, declined to be interviewed. Cautioning that he can't speak for the Obama administration or Prof. Sunstein, Prof. Thaler discussed the new regulatory model. "The standard beer can is 12 ounces," he said. "That makes it pretty easy to compare beer prices. So now consider mortgages. It's not that you regulate the interest rates or the fees. But one way to make shopping easier is to make comparing the products simpler."</p> <p>Thus, suggested Prof. Thaler, every bank or mortgage broker would have to offer two "safe-harbor" products with "standard terms that are easy to understand": a 30-year fixed mortgage with no points or prepayment penalties, and a five-year adjustable-rate mortgage. The market would set the interest rates. "By having these generic, simple mortgages," said Prof. Thaler, "you make everything else comparable."</p> <p>Banks and mortgage brokers would remain free to offer more complex kinds of loans. However, added Prof. Thaler, "If the broker sells you a teaser-rate mortgage that you can't possibly afford once it resets, then as Ricky Ricardo used to say, he's got some 'splainin' to do" -- including greater potential penalties from regulators. Mutual funds, 401(k)s and brokerage accounts wouldn't be regulated by the new agency but might well be influenced by its rules.</p> <p>The proposal is about making regulation intelligent, not intrusive, said Eric Johnson, an expert on decision-making who teaches at Columbia Business School. "If you really do want a complicated, high-cost, high-risk mutual fund, you'll still be able to get it. But making sure that at least one option is not a disaster gives people an anchor."</p> <p>Regulation that recognizes the limits of human rationality is an idea whose time has come. Like any good psychology lab, the proposed new agency will gather reams of data on how real people actually behave and adjust its rules accordingly, in real time. Of course, the financial industry will adjust its own behavior, trying to outsmart the new rules as fast as they are printed. But the war between the regulators and the regulated might finally be based on a realistic view of human nature, not fantasy.</p> <p> <strong>Write to</strong> Jason Zweig at <a class="" href="mailto:intelligentinvestor@wsj.com">intelligentinvestor@wsj.com</a>" </p>Donald Pretarihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14493535232127084725noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3408132757969446263.post-30977702551846821672009-06-20T21:41:00.000-07:002009-06-20T21:44:07.995-07:00Treasury Department's white paper on its financial reform plans, the word "robust" is used 47 times<a href="http://blogs.princeton.edu/mccarty/2009/06/the-word-of-the-day.html">TO BE NOTED: From <span class="byline"> <span class="vcard author">Nolan McCarty</span>:</span></a><br /> <span style="font-weight: bold;"><br />"</span>The Word of the Day<div class="asset-header"> <div class="asset-meta"> <span class="byline"> By <span class="vcard author">Nolan McCarty</span> on <abbr class="published" title="2009-06-18T19:27:35-05:00">June 18, 2009 7:27 PM</abbr> </span> <span class="separator">|</span> <a href="http://blogs.princeton.edu/mccarty/2009/06/the-word-of-the-day.html#comments">No Comments</a> </div> </div> <span style="font-family:Times New Roman;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman;"><span style="font-family:Times New Roman;"><span style="font-size: 1.25em;"> </span><p><span style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Arial;"><span style="font-size: 1.25em;">In the Treasury Department's white paper on its financial reform plans, the word "robust" is used 47 times in 101 pages. Some choice examples:<o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 33pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Symbol;"><span style=""><span style="font-size: 1.25em;">·<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal;"> </span></span></span></span><span style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Arial;"><span style="font-size: 1.25em;">[our plan will] promote <strong><span style="font-family: Arial;">robust </span></strong>supervision and regulation of financial firms. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 33pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Symbol;"><span style=""><span style="font-size: 1.25em;">·<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal;"> </span></span></span></span><span style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Arial;"><span style="font-size: 1.25em;">[financial holding companies] should be subject to <strong><span style="font-family: Arial;">robust </span></strong>consolidated supervision and regulation, regardless of whether the firm owns an insured depository institution.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 33pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Symbol;"><span style=""><span style="font-size: 1.25em;">·<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal;"> </span></span></span></span><span style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Arial;"><span style="font-size: 1.25em;">[the SEC] should require <strong><span style="font-family: Arial;">robust</span></strong> reporting by issuers of asset backed securities.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 33pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Symbol;"><span style=""><span style="font-size: 1.25em;">·<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal;"> </span></span></span></span><span style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Arial;"><span style="font-size: 1.25em;">[the SEC] should promote <strong><span style="font-family: Arial;">robust </span></strong>policies and procedures that manage and disclose conflicts of interest [for credit rating agencies].<o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 33pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Symbol;"><span style=""><span style="font-size: 1.25em;">·<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal;"> </span></span></span></span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial;"><span style="font-size: 1.25em;"><span style="color:#000000;">The CFPA [consumer financial protection agency] should be an independent agency with stable, </span><strong><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Arial;">robust</span></strong><span style="color:#000000;"> funding.<span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 33pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Symbol;"><span style=""><span style="font-size: 1.25em;">·<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal;"> </span></span></span></span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial;"><span style="font-size: 1.25em;"><span style="color:#000000;">Regulators will need to require that CCPs [central counterparties] impose </span><strong><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Arial;">robust</span></strong><span style="color:#000000;"> margin requirements<span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 33pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Symbol;"><span style=""><span style="font-size: 1.25em;">·<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal;"> </span></span></span></span><span style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Arial;"><span style="font-size: 1.25em;">The CFPA should also establish a <strong><span style="font-family: Arial;">robust </span></strong>research and statistics department<o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 1.25em;"> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Arial;"><span style="font-size: 1.25em;">It is too early to tell whether the new regulatory regime will be effective, efficient, and equitable. But it will certainly be robust!"</span></span></p></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>Donald Pretarihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14493535232127084725noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3408132757969446263.post-85392144844509868302009-06-20T21:29:00.000-07:002009-06-20T21:36:41.736-07:00"If the government or the aid organizations don't help us -- yes we will have to start growing opium," he said.<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-Afghanistan-Pakistan/idUSTRE55F0CD20090618">TO BE NOTED:<br /></a><br /><div class="logo"><img src="http://www.reuters.com/resources/images/logo_reuters_media_us.gif" border="0" /></div> <!--[if !IE]> ### IE5 fix: Do not remove spacer GIF! ### <![endif]--> <img src="http://www.reuters.com/resources/images/spacer.gif" alt="" class="spacerHack" border="0" width="1" height="1" /> <!--[if !IE]> ### Cross-Channel Content <![endif]--> <div class="contentBand" id="topContent"> </div> <p><span class="label"><a href="javascript:window.print();">Print</a> | <a href="javascript:%20window.close();">Close this window</a></span></p> <h1>Help us or we'll grow opium, say Afghan villagers</h1> <div class="timestamp">Thu Jun 18, 2009 3:56pm EDT</div> <p>By <a href="http://blogs.reuters.com/search/journalist.php?edition=us&n=Jonathon.Burch">Jonathon Burch</a></p> <p>TALBOZANG, Afghanistan (Reuters) - Fifty-year-old Abdul Wadud walked for two hours across Afghanistan's remote northern mountains to hear a police commander give yet more promises of aid for those who turn their backs on growing opium.</p> <p>Wadud does not grow drugs. But if no money comes soon, he will.</p> <p>"The government told us several times they would help us and they didn't," he said, crouching barefoot on the ground in traditional Afghan loose shirt and trousers and explaining he feeds a family of 15 on occasional work as a day laborer.</p> <p>"If the government or the aid organizations don't help us -- yes we will have to start growing opium," he said.</p> <p>"If they build us schools and roads we promise never to grow opium."</p> <p>Wadud and around 30 other village elders from the area had gathered on a hillside deep inside the Hindu Kush mountains, to attend a "shura," or meeting, organized by provincial authorities to dissuade the men from growing the drug.</p> <p>Their Badakhshan province in remote northern Afghanistan has been a showcase for government efforts to battle the drugs trade, which accounts for nearly all the world's heroin.</p> <p>Until 2006 Badakhshan was one of the main opium growing areas in Afghanistan, producing the country's second biggest crop.</p> <p>But last year its output fell by 95 percent, to a mere 200 hectares under cultivation, close to being declared 'poppy free' by the United Nations, which credited government information campaigns and eradication programs for the success there.</p> <p>The United Nations has warned, however, that last year's improvement may not hold without more aid for poor farmers.</p> <p>"Badakhshan may bounce back to opium cultivation if the government fails to deliver promises made to farmers for alternative development activities," the U.N. drugs agency said in its opium survey report last August.</p> <p>"DISGRACE"</p> <p>Sayed Musqin Wafaqish, a police commander sent in from Kabul to head counter-narcotic efforts in the area, told the bearded men seated on rolled-out plastic carpets that the aid is coming, as long as they do not revert to growing opium.</p> <p>"We know you are poor and because you are poor you want to grow poppy," he said. "It is bad for Afghanistan. It is a disgrace. It gives a bad name for Afghanistan because we are growing poppy. I promise you in the near future you will get some help. Your village is on the top of the list."</p> <p>Despite a marginal drop in production, Afghanistan last year still produced more than 90 percent of the world's opium, a thick paste from poppies which is processed to make heroin. But the overall numbers hide wide variations from province to province.</p> <p>As a result of improvements in areas under government control in recent years, most of the production is now concentrated in southern provinces such as Helmand, in areas partly or wholly controlled by Taliban militants.</p> <p>Fighters use the trade to fund their insurgency, and it also breeds corrosive government corruption. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said this year Afghanistan was in danger of becoming a failed "narco-state."</p> <p>The government and its Western backers say the drop in production in northern provinces under their grip, like Badakhshan, is a sign they can fight drugs in areas they control.</p> <p>Afghan and Western anti-narcotics officials tout "alternative development" projects such as providing wheat seeds to farmers. But locals at the shura say they have yet to see the benefits.</p> <p>Sayed Amir, 60, an elder from the village of Talbozang, shook his head when asked if he has received any government help.</p> <p>"No, no, no. Never," he said. "The government promised us seeds but we never received them."</p> <p>Officials in the peaceful north say they have received far less international aid than in the violent south, where donors spend money to win over hearts and minds from insurgents.</p> <p>"We hear in radio broadcasts that the international community is helping our country. Where is the help?" said Sayed Ayub, head of Talbozang's development council, as U.S. military and State Department officials who traveled to the shura looked on.</p> <p>"We are ready for any cooperation with the government. If the government asks us not to grow poppy, they should help us."</p> <p>(Editing by Peter Graff and Jerry Norton)"</p>Badakhshān<br /><i> </i> بدخشان <i> </i><br /><small><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Provinces_of_Afghanistan" title="Provinces of Afghanistan">Province</a> of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afghanistan" title="Afghanistan">Afghanistan</a></small> <div class="center"> <div class="floatnone"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Afghanistan_Badakhshan_Province_location.PNG" class="image" title="Location of Badakhshān"><img alt="Location of Badakhshān" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/45/Afghanistan_Badakhshan_Province_location.PNG/250px-Afghanistan_Badakhshan_Province_location.PNG" width="250" height="192" /></a></div> </div> <small><span style="white-space: nowrap;"><span class="plainlinks nourlexpansion"><img class="noprint" style="padding: 0px 3px 0px 0px; cursor: pointer;" title="show location on an interactive map" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9a/Erioll_world.svg/18px-Erioll_world.svg.png" /><a href="http://stable.toolserver.org/geohack/geohack.php?pagename=Badakhshan_Province&params=38_0_N_71_0_E_type:Country%2845000%29" class="external text" title="http://stable.toolserver.org/geohack/geohack.php?pagename=Badakhshan_Province&params=38_0_N_71_0_E_type:Country(45000)" rel="nofollow"><span class="geo-default"><span class="geo-dms" title="Maps, aerial photos, and other data for this location"><span class="latitude">38°0′N</span> <span class="longitude">71°0′E</span></span></span></a><br /><br /><br /></span></span></small>Donald Pretarihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14493535232127084725noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3408132757969446263.post-87662024840762887792009-06-20T21:23:00.000-07:002009-06-20T21:24:07.709-07:00Dirty Harry interviews Inspector Moore<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/uPMrlox2ieE&hl=en&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/uPMrlox2ieE&hl=en&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>Donald Pretarihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14493535232127084725noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3408132757969446263.post-83118162957353605572009-06-20T21:09:00.000-07:002009-06-20T21:11:25.564-07:00Iron & Wine - New Order's Love Vigilantes<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/i_0-E576U5A&hl=en&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/i_0-E576U5A&hl=en&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>Donald Pretarihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14493535232127084725noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3408132757969446263.post-34191801312869689732009-06-20T21:04:00.001-07:002009-06-20T21:04:34.001-07:00Ornette Coleman and Mark Kostabi<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/YQqizKMmYRY&hl=en&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/YQqizKMmYRY&hl=en&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>Donald Pretarihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14493535232127084725noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3408132757969446263.post-21086161515273154582009-06-20T21:02:00.001-07:002009-06-20T21:02:33.753-07:00Stevie Wonder - If You Really Love Me<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/IIFVh_5cfmw&hl=en&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/IIFVh_5cfmw&hl=en&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>Donald Pretarihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14493535232127084725noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3408132757969446263.post-65310369236376993522009-06-20T21:00:00.000-07:002009-06-20T21:01:00.765-07:00Ferruccio Busoni: Sinfonia dal Doktor Faust(Symphonia from Doktor Faust)- Rare record<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/QlVJBaaS2wY&hl=en&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/QlVJBaaS2wY&hl=en&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>Donald Pretarihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14493535232127084725noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3408132757969446263.post-58127332571906603752009-06-20T20:49:00.000-07:002009-06-20T20:57:01.438-07:00But there has also been an insistence that Iranians must sort out their own affairs. US meddling, the president has said, would be “counterproductive”<a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/90519d80-5c32-11de-aea3-00144feabdc0.html">TO BE NOTED: From the FT:<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br />"</span>Iran exposes gap between idealism and realism</a><div class="ft-story-header"><p><a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/90519d80-5c32-11de-aea3-00144feabdc0.html">By Philip Stephens</a></p><p>Published: June 18 2009 19:11 | Last updated: June 18 2009 19:11</p></div><div class="ft-story-body"><p><img alt="Barack Obama / Bromley illustration" src="http://media.ft.com/cms/7de4d548-5c2f-11de-aea3-00144feabdc0.jpg" width="470" height="296" /></p><p>You can touch the tension in Washington as heart battles with head. One part of Barack Obama’s administration and, one suspects, of the US president, would like to join the international applause for the demonstrators filling Tehran’s streets. Pushing against this Wilsonian reflex is foreign policy pragmatism. As much as it holds up freedom as a universal value, the <a class="bodystrong" target="_blank" title="Calm response captures new White House tone" href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c48eb03c-59d6-11de-b687-00144feabdc0,dwp_uuid=36de51b2-4611-11de-803f-00144feabdc0.html">White House </a>does not want to be seen as calling for regime change.</p><p>The strains have shown in the public pronouncements. Mr Obama has voiced concern about the allegations of vote-rigging and the violent reaction of the Iranian authorities to peaceful demonstrations. There have been gentle admonitions about the need for the Iranian regime to respect the democratic process. But there has also been an insistence that Iranians must sort out their own affairs. US meddling, the president has said, would be “counterproductive”.</p><p>Most Republicans have shown no such restraint. US officials lack concrete evidence that Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad’s presidential victory over Mir-Hossein Moussavi was fixed. They are pretty certain that the results were falsified, but they do not rule out the possibility that Mr Ahmadi-Nejad secured a genuine majority, albeit probably not by the announced margin.</p><p>No matter. John McCain has led the Republican charge, declaring that Mr Obama should roundly condemn a “corrupt, flawed sham of an election”. The US news channels have echoed Republican commentators declaring that the “rigging” of the election has strangled at birth Mr Obama’s strategy of engagement with Tehran.</p><p>Mr Obama’s reticence has also seemed to leave him out of step with some Europeans. Angela Merkel’s government in Germany, questioning election irregularities, summoned the Iranian ambassador to lodge a formal protest at the official violence. France’s Nicolas Sarkozy described the crackdown as a measure of the “fraud” perpetrated by Mr Ahmadi-Nejad.</p><p>Mr Obama need not pay too much attention to the European rhetoric. Howls of outrage from Berlin and Paris are often in inverse proportion to their willingness to act. Think back to the Russian invasion of Georgia. Few were as firm as Ms Merkel in their condemnation of Moscow’s aggression. Mr Sarkozy claimed that it was his pressure that halted the Russian advance. And now? The Russians still occupy Georgian territory, and Germany and France forever argue that nothing should be done to upset Moscow.</p><p>Mr Obama’s Republican critics make a different mistake. Their assumption is that by seeking to isolate Tehran, the US can somehow bring Iran into line internationally. Three decades of experience and the disaster that was George W. Bush’s foreign policy say otherwise.</p><p>As far as Iran’s nuclear ambitions go, it may well prove impossible, whatever the west does, to prevent Tehran from acquiring a weapons capability. But one thing that can be said for certain is that an attempt to bomb its nuclear installations would not halt the programme. To the contrary, nothing would be more calculated to entrench the present regime. The hawks in Washington decrying diplomacy have no credible alternative.</p><p>Many of the differences between Mr Obama and the less excitable critics are tactical. Mr Obama’s carefully calibrated response reflects a consciousness of America’s long history of interference in the domestic affairs of Iran. The president also lives with the lethal association between democracy promotion and US military intervention that has been the legacy of Mr Bush.</p><p>Mr Obama is right that overt US backing for Mr Moussavi would hand a weapon to Mr Ahmadi-Nejad. He is correct also in observing that while Mr Moussavi has campaigned on a platform of domestic reform, he has scarcely proposed a transformative foreign policy.</p><p>Too much of the discourse in Washington has seemed to presume that Mr Moussavi is a western-style democrat eager to abandon Iran’s nuclear ambitions and its support for groups such as Hamas and Hizbollah. A notable exception in his own party has been Richard Lugar, the senior Republican on the senate foreign relations committee. Mr Lugar has echoed the White House in warning that vocal US interference gives hardline clerics in Iran a convenient stick with which to beat the moderates.</p><p>In another dimension, though, the events of the past few days do expose the fundamental tension between idealism and realism at the heart of Mr Obama’s foreign policy. On the one hand, the president has rightly abandoned the democracy-at-the-point-of-a-gun zealotry of the neoconservatives. On the other he cannot ignore the reality that the west’s interests do indeed lie in the spread of pluralist political systems.</p><p>Mr Obama sought to address the issue in his Cairo speech. No system of government should be imposed on one nation by another, he avowed. But, if the US did not presume to know best for everyone else, certain rights – freedom of speech and a say in government, the rule of law and equal justice – were universal. America would support these values everywhere.</p><p>Practice, as events in Iran have shown, is never as neat as theory. The liberal internationalist impulse must be to offer moral support for those Iranians demanding their voices be heard. The realist says how can the White House demand of Iran levels of freedom that it does not ask of close allies such as Egypt or Saudi Arabia? The most lethal charge levied against the US in the region is that of double standards. It will not be an easy one to shake off.</p><p>As far as Iran is concerned the answer can only be engagement – with whatever regime is in power and, crucially with Iranians in all their manifestations. Tehran’s nuclear ambitions must be only one part of a much bigger conversation.</p><p>There must be no preconditions. The priority for Mr Obama’s administration must be to demolish the idea that the establishment of broadly based relations with Iran would somehow reward the regime. The reverse is true. The champions of modernity in Iran will thrive to the extent that the relationship with the west is seen to be one of mutual respect and mutual interests. Mr Obama has so far got this one right. He will feel no more comfortable for that.</p><p><a class="bodystrong" target="_blank" href="mailto:philip.stephens@ft.com">philip.stephens@ft.com</a>"</p></div><img alt="http://www.mapsofworld.com/iran/maps/iran-political-map.jpg" src="http://www.mapsofworld.com/iran/maps/iran-political-map.jpg" />Donald Pretarihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14493535232127084725noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3408132757969446263.post-60200258065012867232009-06-20T20:42:00.000-07:002009-06-20T20:45:57.341-07:00tempted to bail out a firm to save jobs, for example, or refrain from raising interest rates to stop a big firm from failing?<a href="http://www.economist.com/opinion/PrinterFriendly.cfm?story_id=13862497">TO BE NOTED:<br /></a><br /><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="600"><tbody><tr><td width="600"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="600"><tbody><tr><td width="125"><a href="http://www.economist.com/index.cfm"><img alt="Economist.com" src="http://www.economist.com/images/ecdc_125x34.gif" border="0" vspace="3" width="125" height="34" /></a></td> <td bgcolor="#ffffff" width="17"><img alt="" src="http://www.economist.com/images/blocks/spacer.gif" width="17" height="1" /></td> <td bgcolor="#ffffff" width="1"><img alt="" src="http://www.economist.com/images/blocks/spacer.gif" width="1" height="1" /></td> <td bgcolor="#ffffff" width="326"><img alt="" src="http://www.economist.com/images/blocks/spacer.gif" width="326" height="2" /><br /><img alt="" src="http://www.economist.com/images/pagehead/Leaders.gif" vspace="3" width="326" height="34" /></td> <td width="126"><img alt="" src="http://www.economist.com/images/blocks/spacer.gif" width="120" height="1" /> <br /><img alt="" src="http://www.economist.com/images/blocks/spacer.gif" width="126" height="1" /><br /></td> <td bgcolor="#ffffff" width="5"><img alt="" src="http://www.economist.com/images/blocks/spacer.gif" width="5" height="1" /></td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td colspan="1" bgcolor="#ffffff"><img alt="" src="http://www.economist.com/images/blocks/black.gif" width="600" height="1" /></td> </tr> </tbody></table> <script type="text/javascript" language="JavaScript"> function getTitle() { return "Better broth, still too many cooks" } </script> <script language="JavaScript" type="text/javascript"> function toggle(embed){ if(document.getElementById(embed).style.display == 'none'){ document.getElementById(embed).style.display = 'block'; }else{ document.getElementById(embed).style.display = 'none'; } } </script> <br /><span style="font-family:verdana, geneva, arial, sans serif;font-size:-1;color:#cc0033;"><b>Reforming financial regulations in America</b></span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:verdana, geneva, arial, sans serif;font-size:+1;"><b>Better broth, still too many cooks</b><br /></span> <span style="font-family:verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif;font-size:-2;color:#999999;"><div>Jun 18th 2009<br />From The Economist print edition</div></span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif;font-size:-1;"><b>Barack Obama’s plan for regulatory reform is not bold enough</b></span><br /> <br /><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0" width="304"><tbody><tr><td valign="top"><table align="right" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td align="right" valign="top"><span style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:-2;color:#999999;">AFP</span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td valign="bottom"><img src="http://www.economist.com/images/20090620/2509LD5.jpg" alt="AFP" border="0" width="300" height="222" /></td></tr><tr><td valign="top"><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /> <!--back--><p><span style="font-family:verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif;font-size:-1;">FINANCIAL regulation in America has two problems: there is both too much of it and too little. Multiple federal agencies oversee the financial system: five for banks alone, and one each for securities, derivatives and the government-sponsored mortgage agencies. They share these duties with at least 50 state banking regulators and other state and federal consumer-protection agencies. Yet all these regulators failed to anticipate and prevent the worst financial crisis since the Depression, because risk-taking flourished in the cracks between them. Toxic subprime mortgages were peddled by lenders with little federal oversight and shoved into off-balance-sheet vehicles. The greatest leverage accumulated in firms that avoided the capital requirements of banks.</span></p> <p><span style="font-family:verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif;font-size:-1;">On June 17th Barack Obama took aim at these weaknesses (see <a href="http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13856191">article</a>). His financial white paper gets much right. First, it does not pursue what Dan Tarullo, one of the governors of the Federal Reserve, has called “reform by nostalgia”. Rolling back the deregulation of the past three decades would have wiped out the genuine benefits that innovation and competition have brought to Americans. Second, it recognises that many remedies do not require new regulators, but simply better regulations, such as beefed-up capital and liquidity buffers for banks and shifting much of the “over the counter” trade in derivatives to regulated exchanges and clearing houses.</span></p> <cf_floatingcontent></cf_floatingcontent> <p><span style="font-family:verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif;font-size:-1;">In other respects the plan does not go far enough. It does too little to reduce the multiplicity of regulators that has long undermined their effectiveness. To be sure, regulatory competition is not all bad: it can check government overreach and nourish experimentation. Nor is a unified regulator a cure-all: Britain’s Financial Services Authority failed to do anything about British banks’ excessive dependence on short-term, wholesale funding. But most of America’s overlap is a useless holdover from the days when commercial and investment banks, thrifts, government-sponsored enterprises and commodity dealers did different things. This overlap encourages dodgy firms to shop around for the friendliest regulator, which is how the Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS) ended up overseeing so many big, failed companies. It slows down implementation of new rules, breeds turf wars, corrodes accountability and increases costs.</span></p> <p><span style="font-family:verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif;font-size:-1;">But under the new proposals only one agency, the OTS, will disappear. A new agency to protect consumers will take this area over from the bank regulators. But it will not assume similar duties now held by the Securities and Exchange Commission or Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and have little enforcement authority over thousands of state-regulated finance companies and loan brokers—a glaring shortcoming given that such firms were responsible for originating a large share of toxic mortgages and abusive loans.</span></p> <p><span style="font-family:verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif;font-size:-1;">The plan also complicates the role of the Federal Reserve, which has already been exposed to political attack by its unprecedented interventions in markets and the economy. The Fed should certainly revisit how it does its job. The financial crisis has amply demonstrated that maintaining low inflation does not guarantee economic stability. This has fired up interest, in Europe as well as America, in “macroprudential regulation”: the notion that regulators must supplement “micro” supervision of individual firms by looking across entire markets and industries for risks that threaten the whole system. </span></p> <p><span style="font-family:verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif;font-size:-1;">This is much harder in practice than in theory. By its very nature, risk-taking thrives in the shadows and crises take regulators by surprise. But if macroprudential regulation is to be done, the central bank is the logical body to do it. As lenders of last resort central banks pick up the bill in systemic crises, so they deserve a role in preventing them. The European Union is also proposing that European central bankers work with bank supervisors to detect and prevent systemic risk. Unlike the EU proposals, however, Mr Obama’s plan also makes the Fed directly responsible for the supervision of all firms deemed too big to fail in addition to its existing responsibility for bank holding companies and some banks. That introduces conflicts of interest and risks of regulatory capture: might the Fed be tempted to bail out a firm to save jobs, for example, or refrain from raising interest rates to stop a big firm from failing? If the Fed is to receive this expanded macroprudential role, it should be stripped of its microprudential duties.</span></p><br /><div><span style="font-family:verdana, geneva, arial, sans serif;"><b><a name="don’t_let_a_crisis_go_to_waste">Don’t let a crisis go to waste</a></b></span></div> <p><span style="font-family:verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif;font-size:-1;">Mr Obama’s aides have concluded that a more ambitious overhaul of America’s sprawling regulatory system would expend too much political capital with too little benefit. That bodes poorly for their willingness to face down special interests over the details of even this limited proposal. Who will have to hold more capital, and how much? Which firms will be designated as systemically important, and how will they pay for their implicit government backing? How to prevent banks shopping around for laxer rules abroad? Mr Obama’s aides are famously fond of saying that crises create opportunities. But the best opportunity in years for a complete redesign of America’s regulatory apparatus seems to be going to waste."</span></p>Donald Pretarihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14493535232127084725noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3408132757969446263.post-41982985222554494612009-06-20T20:29:00.000-07:002009-06-20T20:33:57.926-07:00This mix – easy money/tight fiscal – would halt debt deflation without ruining the public finances of the US, Britain, and Europe<a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/5586043/Dont-believe-the-hyperinflation-hype---dare-to-make-cuts.html">TO BE NOTED: From the Telegraph:</a><br /> <span style="font-weight: bold;"><br />"</span>Don't believe the hyperinflation hype - dare to make cuts <span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span>London asset managers 36 South are launching a "hyperinflation fund" for those convinced that money-printing by central banks around the world must lead to Weimar or Zimbabwe soon enough. <div class="storyHead"> </div> <div class="oneHalf gutter"> <div class="headerOne"> </div> <div class="story"> <div class="byline"> <p> By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard<br /> Published: 7:19PM BST 20 Jun 2009</p> <p> Comments <span class="num"><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/5586043/Dont-believe-the-hyperinflation-hype---dare-to-make-cuts.html#comments">0</a></span> | <span class="placeComment"><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/5586043/Dont-believe-the-hyperinflation-hype---dare-to-make-cuts.html#postComment">Comment on this article</a></span></p> </div> <div class="slideshow ssPortrait"> </div> <p> Flush from last year's 234pc rise in their Black Swan Fund, they are betting that quantitative easing and war-time deficits have sown the seeds of inflation reaching "10pc, 15pc, 20pc, or more". They capture the mood of the times, but are they right? </p> <p> We know that the Fed's balance sheet has exploded (to $2.07 trillion), but that is only half the story. Data from the St Louis Fed shows that the "monetary multiplier" has collapsed from a decade-average of 1.6 to the depths of 0.893. The "velocity" of money has slowed to a crawl. </p><div class="related_links_inline"> <div class="headerOne"> </div><br /></div> <p> Professor David Beckworth from Texas State University said the Fed's efforts to boost the money supply are barely keeping pace with the deflation shock. Stimulus is not gaining traction. The credit system is broken. </p> <p> Where will the inflation impulse come from given that capacity use is at a post-war low of 68pc in the US, and nearer 60pc worldwide? The immediate threat is wage deflation. </p> <p> Tim Congdon – a hard-money Friedmanite from International Monetary Research – says the Fed is still not easing enough, perhaps because it is spooked by so much criticism or faces a mutiny by its own hawks. "If Ben Bernanke and his officials are listening to this sort of stuff and taking it seriously, they are making the same mistake as the Fed in the early 1930s," he said. The US "output gap" is near 7pc. That is a powerful lid on inflation. </p> <p> The sin has been to let M2 money growth wither since January, to let bank lending contract at a 5pc annual rate, and to let 10-year bond yields rise to nearly 4pc. The Fed pays lip service to the Friedman-Schwartz theory of the Depression, but has not digested the lesson. </p> <p> Mr Congdon's prescription is what Britain did in 1931 and 1992: monetary stimulus <i>à</i> l'outrance (today: bond purchases), offset by spending cuts. This mix – easy money/tight fiscal – would halt debt deflation without ruining the public finances of the US, Britain, and Europe in the way that Keynesian schemes ruined Japan. "The markets would rocket," he said. </p> <p> Personally, I backed the Brown fiscal package last autumn, but only to buy time when Western banks seized up, and to pressure G20 surplus states to play their part. That phase has passed. </p> <p> Today's danger is creditor revulsion as governments worldwide raise $6 trillion in debt this year. The solution is remarkably simple. Stop borrowing and step up the Friedman monetary blitz to stop loan collapse. Does any nation have the nerve to do it?"</p> </div> </div>Donald Pretarihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14493535232127084725noreply@blogger.com0