Ben Bernake gave a speech in 2002 about Deflation that I'd like to scan:
"Since World War II, inflation--the apparently inexorable rise in the prices of goods and services--has been the bane of central bankers. Economists of various stripes have argued that inflation is the inevitable result of (pick your favorite) the abandonment of metallic monetary standards, a lack of fiscal discipline, shocks to the price of oil and other commodities, struggles over the distribution of income, excessive money creation, self-confirming inflation expectations, an "inflation bias" in the policies of central banks, and still others. Despite widespread "inflation pessimism," however, during the 1980s and 1990s most industrial-country central banks were able to cage, if not entirely tame, the inflation dragon. Although a number of factors converged to make this happy outcome possible, an essential element was the heightened understanding by central bankers and, equally as important, by political leaders and the public at large of the very high costs of allowing the economy to stray too far from price stability. "
I agree with this. A small amount of inflation bias might well be beneficial, for reasons to do with Human Agency and the perception of prices and goods.
"With inflation rates now quite low in the United States, however, some have expressed concern that we may soon face a new problem--the danger of deflation, or falling prices. That this concern is not purely hypothetical is brought home to us whenever we read newspaper reports about Japan, where what seems to be a relatively moderate
deflation--a decline in consumer prices of about 1 percent per year--has been associated with years of painfully slow growth, rising joblessness, and apparently intractable financial problems in the banking and corporate sectors. While it is difficult to sort out cause from effect, the consensus view is that deflation has been an important negative factor in the Japanese slump. "
In Japan, Deflation, a drop in Consumer Prices of about 1% per year, caused, or is associated with:
1) Slow Growth
2) A rise in unemployment
3) Insoluble problems in the financial world
"So, is deflation a threat to the economic health of the United States? Not to leave you in suspense, I believe that the chance of significant deflation in the United States in the foreseeable future is extremely small, for two principal reasons."
They are:
1) "The first is the resilience and structural stability of the U.S. economy itself."
See, this one's a little dodgy.
"Over the years, the U.S. economy has shown a remarkable ability to absorb shocks of all kinds, to recover, and to continue to grow."
Let's hope this ability continues to be operative.
"Flexible and efficient markets for labor and capital, an entrepreneurial tradition, and a general willingness to tolerate and even embrace technological and economic change all contribute to this resiliency."
How about a strong stomach?
"A particularly important protective factor in the current environment is the strength of our financial system: Despite the adverse shocks of the past year, our banking system remains healthy and well-regulated, and firm and household balance sheets are for the most part in good shape."
Here's a good reason not to have a blog. Every idiotic thing I say is recorded.
"Also helpful is that inflation has recently been not only low but quite stable, with one result being that inflation expectations seem well anchored. For example, according to the University of Michigan survey that underlies the index of consumer sentiment, the median expected rate of inflation during the next five to ten years among those interviewed was 2.9 percent in October 2002, as compared with 2.7 percent a year earlier and 3.0 percent two years earlier--a stable record indeed. "
A lot of people blame our current situation on such low rates and the somnolent effect of the formerly great moderation.
2) "The second bulwark against deflation in the United States, and the one that will be the focus of my remarks today, is the Federal Reserve System itself."
Bulwark? The Fed's more like a turret disgorging its ammunition as it rotates around like a spinning top.
"The Congress has given the Fed the responsibility of preserving price stability (among other objectives), which most definitely implies avoiding deflation as well as inflation. I am confident that the Fed would take whatever means necessary to prevent significant deflation in the United States and, moreover, that the U.S. central bank, in cooperation with other parts of the government as needed, has sufficient policy instruments to ensure that any deflation that might occur would be both mild and brief."
Would the Congress would take it back? I was also confident in 2002 that the Red Sox would never win the World Series again.
"Of course, we must take care lest confidence become over-confidence."
We can definitely rest easy here.
"Deflationary episodes are rare, and generalization about them is difficult."
That didn't stop us from predicting a housing bubble wouldn't burst.
"Indeed, a recent Federal Reserve study of the Japanese experience concluded that the deflation there was almost entirely unexpected, by both foreign and Japanese observers alike (Ahearne et al., 2002). So, having said that deflation in the United States is highly unlikely, I would be imprudent to rule out the possibility altogether."
Right now, I can't rule out that Don will be running the Fed soon.
"Accordingly, I want to turn to a further exploration of the causes of deflation, its economic effects, and the policy instruments that can be deployed against it. Before going further I should say that my comments today reflect my own views only and are not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Board of Governors or the Federal Open Market Committee. "
I think that they would have rather you said that earlier.
"Deflation: Its Causes and Effects Deflation is defined as a general decline in prices, with emphasis on the word "general."
Lot's of prices of things need to decline.
"At any given time, especially in a low-inflation economy like that of our recent experience, prices of some goods and services will be falling. Price declines in a specific sector may occur because productivity is rising and costs are falling more quickly in that sector than elsewhere or because the demand for the output of that sector is weak relative to the demand for other goods and services. Sector-specific price declines, uncomfortable as they may be for producers in that sector, are generally not a problem for the economy as a whole and do not constitute deflation. Deflation
per se occurs only when price declines are so widespread that broad-based indexes of prices, such as the consumer price index, register ongoing declines."
Same thing.
"The sources of deflation are not a mystery."
Otherwise, I'd have damned little to say about it.
"Deflation is in almost all cases a side effect of a collapse of aggregate demand--a drop in spending so severe that producers must cut prices on an ongoing basis in order to find buyers.
"
People stop buying things, so businesses try and cut prices to induce them to buy.
"Likewise, the economic effects of a deflationary episode, for the most part, are similar to those of any other sharp decline in aggregate spending--namely, recession, rising unemployment, and financial stress. "
Deflation causes or is associated with:
1) Recession
2) Rising Unemployment
3) Financial stress
This list is remarkably similar to the earlier one.
"However, a deflationary recession may differ in one respect from "normal" recessions in which the inflation rate is at least modestly positive: Deflation of sufficient magnitude may result in the nominal interest rate declining to zero or very close to zero.
2 Once the nominal interest rate is at zero, no further downward adjustment in the rate can occur, since lenders generally will not accept a negative nominal interest rate when it is possible instead to hold cash. At this point, the nominal interest rate is said to have hit the "zero bound."
Let me try and understand this. It's pretty profound. If I get a negative interest rate, I'll get less money back than I put in or I'll pay a fee. Given that, I'd rather hold on to my cash, because, at least, it's not going down.
"Deflation great enough to bring the nominal interest rate close to zero poses special problems for the economy and for policy."
It's seems like it will be hard to get people to buy your wonderful negative interest bonds.
"First, when the nominal interest rate has been reduced to zero, the
real interest rate paid by borrowers equals the expected rate of deflation, however large that may be.
3 To take what might seem like an extreme example (though in fact it occurred in the United States in the early 1930s), suppose that deflation is proceeding at a clip of 10 percent per year. Then someone who borrows for a year at a nominal interest rate of zero actually faces a 10 percent
real cost of funds, as the loan must be repaid in dollars whose purchasing power is 10 percent greater than that of the dollars borrowed originally. In a period of sufficiently severe deflation, the real cost of borrowing becomes prohibitive. Capital investment, purchases of new homes, and other types of spending decline accordingly, worsening the economic downturn."
I think that this is the same thing I said earlier. This time it says that you'll pay back your loan in dollars that are worth less, so you'll have to pay back, essentially, more money than you loaned.
"Although deflation and the zero bound on nominal interest rates create a significant problem for those seeking to borrow, they impose an even greater burden on households and firms that had accumulated substantial debt before the onset of the deflation. This burden arises because, even if debtors are able to refinance their existing obligations at low nominal interest rates, with prices falling they must still repay the principal in dollars of increasing (perhaps rapidly increasing) real value."
Actually, this is simply the same point as above , only worse, since deflation essentially starting doing its little dance on you earlier.
"When William Jennings Bryan made his famous "cross of gold" speech in his 1896 presidential campaign, he was speaking on behalf of heavily mortgaged farmers whose debt burdens were growing ever larger in real terms, the result of a sustained deflation that followed America's post-Civil-War return to the gold standard.
4 The financial distress of debtors can, in turn, increase the fragility of the nation's financial system--for example, by leading to a rapid increase in the share of bank loans that are delinquent or in default. Japan in recent years has certainly faced the problem of "debt-deflation"--the deflation-induced, ever-increasing real value of debts. Closer to home, massive financial problems, including defaults, bankruptcies, and bank failures, were endemic in America's worst encounter with deflation, in the years 1930-33--a period in which (as I mentioned) the U.S. price level fell about 10 percent per year. "
A little history lesson, which is always welcome.
"Beyond its adverse effects in financial markets and on borrowers, the zero bound on the nominal interest rate raises another concern--the limitation that it places on conventional monetary policy."
Quite frankly, it's hard to see how you can have one.
"Under normal conditions, the Fed and most other central banks implement policy by setting a target for a short-term interest rate--the overnight federal funds rate in the United States--and enforcing that target by buying and selling securities in open capital markets. When the short-term interest rate hits zero, the central bank can no longer ease policy by lowering its usual interest-rate target.
5"
We already know why.
"Because central banks conventionally conduct monetary policy by manipulating the short-term nominal interest rate, some observers have concluded that when that key rate stands at or near zero, the central bank has "run out of ammunition"--that is, it no longer has the power to expand aggregate demand and hence economic activity."
I bet that you find my turret analogy more appropriate now, don't you. This is just a clever phrase for the third time we've gone over this problem.
"It is true that once the policy rate has been driven down to zero, a central bank can no longer use its
traditional means of stimulating aggregate demand and thus will be operating in less familiar territory. The central bank's inability to use its traditional methods may complicate the policymaking process and introduce uncertainty in the size and timing of the economy's response to policy actions. Hence I agree that the situation is one to be avoided if possible. "
Let's try it for a fourth time. We can't use the "traditional" methods.
"However, a principal message of my talk today is that a central bank whose accustomed policy rate has been forced down to zero has most definitely
not run out of ammunition."
Don't worry. I won't be coming down from this turret in the near future.
"As I will discuss, a central bank, either alone or in cooperation with other parts of the government, retains considerable power to expand aggregate demand and economic activity even when its accustomed policy rate is at zero."
We have ways to get people to spend. It involves free liquor.
"In the remainder of my talk, I will first discuss measures for preventing deflation--the preferable option if feasible. I will then turn to policy measures that the Fed and other government authorities can take if prevention efforts fail and deflation appears to be gaining a foothold in the economy. "
I don't like this approach. Get the rough stuff out of the way first.
"Preventing DeflationAs I have already emphasized, deflation is generally the result of low and falling aggregate demand. The basic prescription for preventing deflation is therefore straightforward, at least in principle: Use monetary and fiscal policy as needed to support aggregate spending, in a manner as nearly consistent as possible with full utilization of economic resources and low and stable inflation. In other words, the best way to get out of trouble is not to get into it in the first place. Beyond this commonsense injunction, however, there are several measures that the Fed (or any central bank) can take to reduce the risk of falling into deflation. "
Wait a second. I need to ponder this one a spell. Don't get into a mess, and you won't have to get out. That's it. We can all go home now.
"First, the Fed should try to preserve a buffer zone for the inflation rate, that is, during normal times it should not try to push inflation down all the way to zero.
6"
Buffer zone? That's just a fancy way of saying don't get into the mess.
"Most central banks seem to understand the need for a buffer zone. For example, central banks with explicit inflation targets almost invariably set their target for inflation above zero, generally between 1 and 3 percent per year. Maintaining an inflation buffer zone reduces the risk that a large, unanticipated drop in aggregate demand will drive the economy far enough into deflationary territory to lower the nominal interest rate to zero. Of course, this benefit of having a buffer zone for inflation must be weighed against the costs associated with allowing a higher inflation rate in normal times. "
You see, a drop from 3 to 1 is a larger drop than from 1 to 0. Do you see?
"Second, the Fed should take most seriously--as of course it does--its responsibility to ensure financial stability in the economy. Irving Fisher (1933) was perhaps the first economist to emphasize the potential connections between violent financial crises, which lead to "fire sales" of assets and falling asset prices, with general declines in aggregate demand and the price level. A healthy, well capitalized banking system and smoothly functioning capital markets are an important line of defense against deflationary shocks. The Fed should and does use its regulatory and supervisory powers to ensure that the financial system will remain resilient if financial conditions change rapidly. And at times of extreme threat to financial stability, the Federal Reserve stands ready to use the discount window and other tools to protect the financial system, as it did during the 1987 stock market crash and the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. "
You know, I tried to scan a Fisher paper and I couldn't. Maybe someone can help me. Oh, and don't get into the mess.
"Third, as suggested by a number of studies, when inflation is already low and the fundamentals of the economy suddenly deteriorate, the central bank should act more preemptively and more aggressively than usual in cutting rates (Orphanides and Wieland, 2000; Reifschneider and Williams, 2000; Ahearne et al., 2002). By moving decisively and early, the Fed may be able to prevent the economy from slipping into deflation, with the special problems that entails. "
What happened to the buffer zone? When you go down from 3, always go directly to 1. It's more like a chasm than a buffer zone.
"As I have indicated, I believe that the combination of strong economic fundamentals and policymakers that are attentive to downside as well as upside risks to inflation make significant deflation in the United States in the foreseeable future quite unlikely."
Just because I brought this topic up, don't go home and hoard cash.
"But suppose that, despite all precautions, deflation were to take hold in the U.S. economy and, moreover, that the Fed's policy instrument--the federal funds rate--were to fall to zero. What then?"
I'm afraid you'll be needing a new chairman. My nickname is "Fair Weather Ben". Just kidding.
"In the remainder of my talk I will discuss some possible options for stopping a deflation once it has gotten under way. I should emphasize that my comments on this topic are necessarily speculative, as the modern Federal Reserve has never faced this situation nor has it pre-committed itself formally to any specific course of action should deflation arise. Furthermore, the specific responses the Fed would undertake would presumably depend on a number of factors, including its assessment of the whole range of risks to the economy and any complementary policies being undertaken by other parts of the U.S. government.
7"
If this occurs, prepare to be dazzled by the gyrations of my policies. I call it "The Kitchen Sink Approach". It's speculative because I've no real idea of what a kitchen sink has to do with trying everything that you can think of.
"Curing Deflation"
Shouldn't we be listening to the NIH or something?
"Let me start with some general observations about monetary policy at the zero bound, sweeping under the rug for the moment some technical and operational issues. "
This is one of those useless models that we were just talking about.
"As I have mentioned, some observers have concluded that when the central bank's policy rate falls to zero--its practical minimum--monetary policy loses its ability to further stimulate aggregate demand and the economy. At a broad conceptual level, and in my view in practice as well, this conclusion is clearly mistaken. Indeed, under a fiat (that is, paper) money system, a government (in practice, the central bank in cooperation with other agencies) should always be able to generate increased nominal spending and inflation, even when the short-term nominal interest rate is at zero. "
I'm glad you're confident.
"The conclusion that deflation is always reversible under a fiat money system follows from basic economic reasoning. A little parable may prove useful:"
What is this? A mashal? Midrash? Once Rabbi Don Of Tacoma noticed that the prices in Tacoma were going down. "This was really the problem in Sedom and 'Amorah ( ' = ayin )", he said.
"Today an ounce of gold sells for $300, more or less. Now suppose that a modern alchemist solves his subject's oldest problem by finding a way to produce unlimited amounts of new gold at essentially no cost. Moreover, his invention is widely publicized and scientifically verified, and he announces his intention to begin massive production of gold within days. What would happen to the price of gold? Presumably, the potentially unlimited supply of cheap gold would cause the market price of gold to plummet. Indeed, if the market for gold is to any degree efficient, the price of gold would collapse immediately after the announcement of the invention, before the alchemist had produced and marketed a single ounce of yellow metal."
I thought Newton believed in alchemy.
"What has this got to do with monetary policy?"
Who knows? Mashals always lead to other mashals.
"Like gold, U.S. dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply. But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation. "
We'll print more money and prices will go up. Isn't this alchemy?
"Of course, the U.S. government is not going to print money and distribute it willy-nilly (although as we will see later, there are practical policies that approximate this behavior)"
We spin a wheel, but it has only a few possibilites on it.
"Normally, money is injected into the economy through asset purchases by the Federal Reserve. To stimulate aggregate spending when short-term interest rates have reached zero, the Fed must expand the scale of its asset purchases or, possibly, expand the menu of assets that it buys. Alternatively, the Fed could find other ways of injecting money into the system--for example, by making low-interest-rate loans to banks or cooperating with the fiscal authorities. Each method of adding money to the economy has advantages and drawbacks, both technical and economic. One important concern in practice is that calibrating the economic effects of nonstandard means of injecting money may be difficult, given our relative lack of experience with such policies. Thus, as I have stressed already, prevention of deflation remains preferable to having to cure it. If we do fall into deflation, however, we can take comfort that the logic of the printing press example must assert itself, and sufficient injections of money will ultimately always reverse a deflation. "
The Fed can spend. Isn't this a stimulus? Or we loan at no interest. Or print money. The point is, we have options.
"So what then might the Fed do if its target interest rate, the overnight federal funds rate, fell to zero? One relatively straightforward extension of current procedures would be to try to stimulate spending by lowering rates further out along the Treasury term structure--that is, rates on government bonds of longer maturities.
9"
Lower interest rates on longer bonds, to induce spending.
"There are at least two ways of bringing down longer-term rates, which are complementary and could be employed separately or in combination. One approach, similar to an action taken in the past couple of years by the Bank of Japan, would be for the Fed to commit to holding the overnight rate at zero for some specified period. Because long-term interest rates represent averages of current and expected future short-term rates, plus a term premium, a commitment to keep short-term rates at zero for some time--if it were credible--would induce a decline in longer-term rates. A more direct method, which I personally prefer, would be for the Fed to begin announcing explicit ceilings for yields on longer-maturity Treasury debt (say, bonds maturing within the next two years). The Fed could enforce these interest-rate ceilings by committing to make unlimited purchases of securities up to two years from maturity at prices consistent with the targeted yields. If this program were successful, not only would yields on medium-term Treasury securities fall, but (because of links operating through expectations of future interest rates) yields on longer-term public and private debt (such as mortgages) would likely fall as well.
As I said, no interest on certain loans. Say that you won't raise interest rates above a certain point.
"Here is Ed Yardeni's very interesting take:
I know what Ben Bernanke will do next, and it should be very bullish for stocks, bonds, commodities, and real estate. He soon will target the 10-year Treasury yield at 2.50%. It was at 3.40% yesterday. That would immediately bring the mortgage rate down to 4%-5%. The inventory of unsold existing and new homes will plunge as homebuyers swarm back into the real estate market. Home prices would stop falling, and might start rising again. The stock market would jump 25% within a few days. By the spring of 2009, housing starts and auto sales will rebound. The worst of the recession will be behind us after the first quarter of next year. "
You know, the only thing that I can see that this does is encourage spending instead of saving, and maybe help businesses and people buying homes with lower rates.
"Lower rates over the maturity spectrum of public and private securities should strengthen aggregate demand in the usual ways and thus help to end deflation. Of course, if operating in relatively short-dated Treasury debt proved insufficient, the Fed could also attempt to cap yields of Treasury securities at still longer maturities, say three to six years. Yet another option would be for the Fed to use its existing authority to operate in the markets for agency debt (for example, mortgage-backed securities issued by Ginnie Mae, the Government National Mortgage Association).'
Same thing. Get people to spend by lowering longer term rates and capping them. I included the Yardeni quote because he seems to see it as a real boost in demand.
"Historical experience tends to support the proposition that a sufficiently determined Fed can peg or cap Treasury bond prices and yields at other than the shortest maturities. The most striking episode of bond-price pegging occurred during the years before the Federal Reserve-Treasury Accord of 1951.
10 Prior to that agreement, which freed the Fed from its responsibility to fix yields on government debt, the Fed maintained a ceiling of 2-1/2 percent on long-term Treasury bonds for nearly a decade. Moreover, it simultaneously established a ceiling on the twelve-month Treasury certificate of between 7/8 percent to 1-1/4 percent and, during the first half of that period, a rate of 3/8 percent on the 90-day Treasury bill. The Fed was able to achieve these low interest rates despite a level of outstanding government debt (relative to GDP) significantly greater than we have today, as well as inflation rates substantially more variable. At times, in order to enforce these low rates, the Fed had actually to purchase the bulk of outstanding 90-day bills. Interestingly, though, the Fed enforced the 2-1/2 percent ceiling on long-term bond yields for nearly a decade without ever holding a substantial share of long-maturity bonds outstanding.
11 For example, the Fed held 7.0 percent of outstanding Treasury securities in 1945 and 9.2 percent in 1951 (the year of the Accord), almost entirely in the form of 90-day bills. For comparison, in 2001 the Fed held 9.7 percent of the stock of outstanding Treasury debt. "
He's saying that history shows that lenghtening the bonds that you're lowering and capping works to increase demand. Beats me. I guess it works.
"To repeat, I suspect that operating on rates on longer-term Treasuries would provide sufficient leverage for the Fed to achieve its goals in most plausible scenarios. If lowering yields on longer-dated Treasury securities proved insufficient to restart spending, however, the Fed might next consider attempting to influence directly the yields on privately issued securities."
Okay. Say doing this to government bonds doesn't work. In that case, we'll fiddle with bonds from outside the government.
"Unlike some central banks, and barring changes to current law, the Fed is relatively restricted in its ability to buy private securities directly.
12 However, the Fed does have broad powers to lend to the private sector indirectly via banks, through the discount window.
13 Therefore a second policy option, complementary to operating in the markets for Treasury and agency debt, would be for the Fed to offer fixed-term loans to banks at low or zero interest, with a wide range of private assets (including, among others, corporate bonds, commercial paper, bank loans, and mortgages) deemed eligible as collateral.
14 For example, the Fed might make 90-day or 180-day zero-interest loans to banks, taking corporate commercial paper of the same maturity as collateral. Pursued aggressively, such a program could significantly reduce liquidity and term premiums on the assets used as collateral. Reductions in these premiums would lower the cost of capital both to banks and the nonbank private sector, over and above the beneficial effect already conferred by lower interest rates on government securities.
15"
Lend money at low interest rates or no interest rate, and get something in return from the banks as collateral. They could then loan money cheaply, lower rates, discourage saving, attract business loans, etc.
"The Fed can inject money into the economy in still other ways. For example, the Fed has the authority to buy foreign government debt, as well as domestic government debt. Potentially, this class of assets offers huge scope for Fed operations, as the quantity of foreign assets eligible for purchase by the Fed is several times the stock of U.S. government debt.
16"
This is like printing money or a stimulus. I'm wondering why the Fed should do this?
"I need to tread carefully here. Because the economy is a complex and interconnected system, Fed purchases of the liabilities of foreign governments have the potential to affect a number of financial markets, including the market for foreign exchange. In the United States, the Department of the Treasury, not the Federal Reserve, is the lead agency for making international economic policy, including policy toward the dollar; and the Secretary of the Treasury has expressed the view that the determination of the value of the U.S. dollar should be left to free market forces. Moreover, since the United States is a large, relatively closed economy, manipulating the exchange value of the dollar would not be a particularly desirable way to fight domestic deflation, particularly given the range of other options available. Thus, I want to be absolutely clear that I am today neither forecasting nor recommending any attempt by U.S. policymakers to target the international value of the dollar. '
Buying the foreign debt might effect the exchange rate, by fiddling with the price of the dollar. Holy cow, I'm dizzy. Calling Willem Buiter or Brad Setser.
"Although a policy of intervening to affect the exchange value of the dollar is nowhere on the horizon today, it's worth noting that there have been times when exchange rate policy has been an effective weapon against deflation. A striking example from U.S. history is Franklin Roosevelt's 40 percent devaluation of the dollar against gold in 1933-34, enforced by a program of gold purchases and domestic money creation. The devaluation and the rapid increase in money supply it permitted ended the U.S. deflation remarkably quickly. Indeed, consumer price inflation in the United States, year on year, went from -10.3 percent in 1932 to -5.1 percent in 1933 to 3.4 percent in 1934.
17 The economy grew strongly, and by the way, 1934 was one of the best years of the century for the stock market. If nothing else, the episode illustrates that monetary actions can have powerful effects on the economy, even when the nominal interest rate is at or near zero, as was the case at the time of Roosevelt's devaluation."
He printed money and devalued the dollar? Anyway, here's my problem. After printing money, all these proposals look like a stimulus plan to increase spending in the economy. Why have the Fed do it? I guess it has to anyway if the stimulus involves deficit spending, but why have unilateral action by the Fed do these things? Why not vote on them?
"Fiscal PolicyEach of the policy options I have discussed so far involves the Fed's acting on its own. In practice, the effectiveness of anti-deflation policy could be significantly enhanced by cooperation between the monetary and fiscal authorities."
Well, I got my answer. He doesn't like it either.
"A broad-based tax cut, for example, accommodated by a program of open-market purchases to alleviate any tendency for interest rates to increase, would almost certainly be an effective stimulant to consumption and hence to prices. Even if households decided not to increase consumption but instead re-balanced their portfolios by using their extra cash to acquire real and financial assets, the resulting increase in asset values would lower the cost of capital and improve the balance sheet positions of potential borrowers. A money-financed tax cut is essentially equivalent to Milton Friedman's famous "helicopter drop" of money.
18"
Again, a stimulus to encourage spending and demand, propping up prices. I have to say, that, if you have to prop up prices into some slight inflationary effect, it does seem to argue that slight inflation is a good thing.
"Of course, in lieu of tax cuts or increases in transfers the government could increase spending on current goods and services or even acquire existing real or financial assets. If the Treasury issued debt to purchase private assets and the Fed then purchased an equal amount of Treasury debt with newly created money, the whole operation would be the economic equivalent of direct open-market operations in private assets. "
With tax cuts you leave the money in people's hands, with spending you give it to them. That's our current debate. I've talked so much about that let's leave it.
How come it didn't work in Japan?
"First, as you know, Japan's economy faces some significant barriers to growth besides deflation, including massive financial problems in the banking and corporate sectors and a large overhang of government debt. Plausibly, private-sector financial problems have muted the effects of the monetary policies that have been tried in Japan, even as the heavy overhang of government debt has made Japanese policymakers more reluctant to use aggressive fiscal policies (for evidence see, for example, Posen, 1998). Fortunately, the U.S. economy does not share these problems, at least not to anything like the same degree, suggesting that anti-deflationary monetary and fiscal policies would be more potent here than they have been in Japan. "
Japan had:
1) Financial problems
2) High Government Debt
Don't we have these now?
"Second, and more important, I believe that, when all is said and done, the failure to end deflation in Japan does not necessarily reflect any technical infeasibility of achieving that goal. Rather, it is a byproduct of a longstanding political debate about how best to address Japan's overall economic problems. As the Japanese certainly realize, both restoring banks and corporations to solvency and implementing significant structural change are necessary for Japan's long-run economic health. But in the short run, comprehensive economic reform will likely impose large costs on many, for example, in the form of unemployment or bankruptcy. As a natural result, politicians, economists, businesspeople, and the general public in Japan have sharply disagreed about competing proposals for reform. In the resulting political deadlock, strong policy actions are discouraged, and cooperation among policymakers is difficult to achieve."
They couldn't implement useful policies because they would adversely hit some people, and politically that was not found acceptable. Same here now? We'll see.
"In short, Japan's deflation problem is real and serious; but, in my view, political constraints, rather than a lack of policy instruments, explain why its deflation has persisted for as long as it has. Thus, I do not view the Japanese experience as evidence against the general conclusion that U.S. policymakers have the tools they need to prevent, and, if necessary, to cure a deflationary recession in the United States. "
It was politics. They knew what to do, but couldn't stomach doing it. Will we?
"Conclusion Sustained deflation can be highly destructive to a modern economy and should be strongly resisted. Fortunately, for the foreseeable future, the chances of a serious deflation in the United States appear remote indeed, in large part because of our economy's underlying strengths but also because of the determination of the Federal Reserve and other U.S. policymakers to act preemptively against deflationary pressures. Moreover, as I have discussed today, a variety of policy responses are available should deflation appear to be taking hold. Because some of these alternative policy tools are relatively less familiar, they may raise practical problems of implementation and of calibration of their likely economic effects. For this reason, as I have emphasized, prevention of deflation is preferable to cure. Nevertheless, I hope to have persuaded you that the Federal Reserve and other economic policymakers would be far from helpless in the face of deflation, even should the federal funds rate hit its zero bound.19"
I usually enjoy Bernanke's talks, but this one wore me out. Here's my bottom line: I think I understand the point of printing money. So do that. Print it willy nilly, I don't care. The other proposals have sent me to the Vicodin. Please God, no deflation. It's hideously awful to reason through.
![[uncle sam]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_umGBEVfzSvNzT5U13RZGpRfCIV6UxptzeiH1Wv1S-hOyeGBCpVxEwNQlPSHK6YQ7bcZ8FnoZ0XOscvRunyDNXgZ0LwyAApPMpuwFyR9SCzuSNQHozn9KybIV-PIXFq24btzbdcVmNM0PvdJJh-3A=s0-d)
![[chart]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_uX_BMA_1HMawbZDntheqpiL3PvZxQW2vSiX3QG9NeZ5J2yJd8pA_MiweT5mer04bH5jFs0dNOwV5nkBuIHL_KOjXg78Nt5VtLSmp5zGdb-0L8hWlj8pRXJ0pvdR-XdiQ1lE-qEeMWoMC88qGEE7JmQUA=s0-d)
![[Chart]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_stDPH3jYKNkIM_OwNr0FBzUhJlMnHy06i5gdALqI0gfdNlyVVGGdzf65EGnOJp36khTepnKSzgGtmMVXUewmqhzBwQ5e2Chg6xt2qQ_DdxxR7J8KtTx8emQnUs93ERYabBrrNV3yur_7LLe5QNv-dqkA=s0-d)
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