Showing posts with label M2. Show all posts
Showing posts with label M2. Show all posts

Thursday, June 11, 2009

The industrial-output number is “good news for the stock market because it shows that the government’s policies are working,”

TO BE NOTED: From Bloomberg:

"China’s New Lending Doubles, Helping Fuel Recovery (Update1)


By Bloomberg News

June 12 (Bloomberg) -- China’s new lending doubled in May from a year earlier, adding to a credit boom that is supporting the government’s 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus plan.

New lending was 664.5 billion yuan, the central bank said on its Web site today. M2, the broadest measure of money supply, rose 25.7 percent.

The government is battling to overcome an export collapse by flooding the economy with money to fuel domestic demand. Fitch Ratings said last month that it’s “increasingly wary” of China’s banking industry as it expects an increase in bad debts, and the nation’s banking regulator has urged lenders to ensure they don’t loosen management of loans.

“Stimulus always is good for the economy in the short run but this may come with a cost for long-run prospects,” said Ha Jiming, chief China economist at China International Capital Corp. in Hong Kong.

The yuan was trading at 6.8329 against the dollar as of 9.33 a.m. in Shanghai, compared with 6.8348 at yesterday’s close. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.2 percent.

Domestic banks extended a record 5.83 trillion yuan of new loans in the first five months of 2009, almost triple the value of advances in the same period a year earlier. New lending in May was the second-lowest level this year.

More Confident

The confidence of Chinese bankers increased for the first time in nine months in the second quarter, the People’s Bank of China said in a statement on its Web site today.

An index tracking the confidence of 2,900 heads of financial institutions rose to 40 percent, up from 25.6 percent three months earlier.

A record 1.89 trillion yuan of loans in March highlighted concerns that banks may be lowering their lending standards. Besides the risk of bad debts, the credit boom may inflate asset prices and increase the likelihood of inflation making a comeback. The Shanghai Composite Index has climbed 54 percent this year.

Other signs of recovery include urban fixed-asset investment gaining the most in five years, surging property sales, and manufacturing expanding for a third month in May as the stimulus package spurred demand, data this week showed.

Exports plunged a record 26.4 percent last month and dragged economic growth to the weakest pace in almost 10 years in the first quarter. Consumer prices fell 1.4 percent in May from a year earlier even as money flooded into the economy.

“The strength of lending growth is good for the economy and good for the stock market in the short term,” said Paul Cavey, an economist with Macquarie Securities Ltd. in Hong Kong. “In the medium term, it’s bad for the banks and it’s bad for the economy.”

New lending may reach 8 trillion yuan in 2009, said Wang Tao, an economist with UBS AG in Beijing.

To contact the reporter on this story: Kevin Hamlin in Beijing at khamlin@bloomberg.net."

"China’s Industrial Output Rebounds, Aiding Recovery (Update1)

By Bloomberg News

June 12 (Bloomberg) -- China’s industrial production rebounded in May, adding to signs that the world’s third-biggest economy is recovering from its worst slump in almost a decade.

Output rose 8.9 percent from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said today, after gaining 7.3 percent in April. That was more than the 7.7 percent median estimate of 16 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Surges in lending, investment and auto and property sales suggest Premier Wen Jiabao’s 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus plan is working. Rising unemployment and a record drop in exports have added to the challenge of reviving economic growth from the weakest pace in almost a decade.

“A recovery is on track,” said Ha Jiming, chief China economist at China International Capital Corp. in Hong Kong. “The hope now is that stimulus spending can also help to pull up private-sector activity.”

Retail sales rose 15.2 percent, up from last month’s 14.8 percent, the statistics bureau said today. The economists’ median estimate was 15 percent.

The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.3 percent as of 10:24 a.m. local time.

Today’s industrial production number compares with a collapse in output growth to 3.8 percent in January and February combined. In May last year, production rose 16 percent.

The Shanghai Composite Index has climbed 53.5 percent this year on optimism that company profits will revive as economic growth accelerates. Jiangxi Copper Co., the nation’s biggest producer of the metal, has soared 212 percent.

‘Policies Working’

The industrial-output number is “good news for the stock market because it shows that the government’s policies are working,” said Paul Cavey, an economist with Macquarie Securities in Hong Kong.

The car industry is among the winners from government efforts to spur growth, as tax cuts and subsidies for buyers extend China’s lead over the U.S. as the world’s biggest auto market this year.

Beijing drivers, used to leaving showrooms with new cars on the same day, now have to wait about three weeks for a Hyundai Motor Co. Yuedong Elantra or as long as eight weeks for a Honda Motor Co. CR-V sport-utility vehicle.

Economic data released yesterday illustrated strength in the domestic economy and weakness in global demand.

Urban fixed-asset investment surged 32.9 percent through May from a year earlier as the government pumped money into railways, roads and low-cost housing. Property investment also picked up. In contrast, exports declined 26.4 percent in May, the most since data began in 1995.

To contact the reporters on this story: Kevin Hamlin in Beijing at khamlin@bloomberg.net"

http://www.wordtravels.com/images/map/China_map.jpg

Sunday, April 19, 2009

It is surprising that the long-term interest rates do not yet reflect the resulting risk of future inflation.

TO BE NOTED: From the FT:

"
Inflation is looming on America’s horizon

By Martin Feldstein

Published: April 19 2009 18:54 | Last updated: April 19 2009 18:54

The US last week showed its first signs of deflation for 55 years, prompting inevitable fears of further deflation in the future. Yet the primary reason for the negative rate of US inflation is the dramatic 30 per cent fall of commodity prices. That will not happen again. Moreover, excluding food and energy, consumer prices are up 1.8 per cent from a year ago. That is the good news: the outlook for the longer term is more ominous.

The unprecedented explosion of the US fiscal deficit raises the spectre of high future inflation. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the president’s budget implies a fiscal deficit of 13 per cent of gross domestic product in 2009 and nearly 10 per cent in 2010. Even with a strong economic recovery, the ratio of government debt to GDP would double to 80 per cent in the next 10 years.

There is ample historic evidence of the link between fiscal profligacy and subsequent inflation. But historic evidence and economic analysis also show that the inflationary effects can be avoided if the fiscal deficits are not accompanied by a sustained increase in the money supply and, more generally, by an easing of monetary conditions.

The key fact is that inflation rises when demand exceeds supply. A fiscal deficit raises demand when the government increases its purchase of goods and services or, by lowering taxes, induces households to increase their spending. Whether this larger fiscal deficit leads to an increase in prices depends on monetary conditions. If the fiscal deficit is not accompanied by an increase in the money supply, the fiscal stimulus will raise short-term interest rates, blocking the increase in demand and preventing a sustained rise in inflation.

So the potential inflationary danger is that the large US fiscal deficit will lead to an increase in the supply of money. This inevitably happens in developing countries that do not have the ability to issue interest-bearing debt and must therefore finance their deficits by printing money. In contrast, when deficits do not lead to an increased supply of money, the evidence shows that they do not cause sustained price increases.

A primary example of this was the sharp fall in inflation in the US in the early 1980s at the same time that fiscal deficits were rising rapidly. Inflation fell because the Federal Reserve tightened monetary conditions and allowed short-term interest rates to rise sharply.

But now the large US fiscal deficits are being accompanied by rapid increases in the money supply and by even more ominous increases in commercial bank reserves that could later be converted into faster money growth. The broad money supply (M2) is already increasing at an annual rate of nearly 15 per cent. The excess reserves of the banking system have ballooned from less than $3bn a year ago to more than $700bn (€536bn, £474bn) now.

The money supply consists largely of government-insured bank deposits that households and businesses are holding because of a concern about the liquidity and safety of other forms of investment. But this could change when conditions improve, turning these money balances into sources of inflation.

The link between fiscal deficits and money growth is about to be exacerbated by “quantitative easing”, in which the Fed will buy long-dated government bonds. While this may look like just a modified form of the Fed’s traditional open market operations, it cannot be distinguished from a policy of directly monetising some of the government’s newly created debt. Fortunately, the amount of debt being purchased in this way is still small relative to the total government borrowing.

The Fed is also creating a massive increase in liquidity by its policy of supplying credit directly to private borrowers. Although these credit transactions do not add to the measured fiscal deficit, the unprecedented Fed purchases of more than $1,000bn of private securities have led to the enormous $700bn increase in the excess reserves of the commercial banks. The banks now hold these as interest-bearing deposits at the Fed. But when the economy begins to recover, these reserves can be converted into new loans and faster money growth.

The deep recession means that there is no immediate risk of inflation. The aggregate demand for labour and goods and services is much less than the potential supply. But when the economy begins to recover, the Fed will have to reduce the excessive stock of money and, more critically, prevent the large volume of excess reserves in the banks from causing an inflationary explosion of money and credit.

This will not be an easy task since the commercial banks may not want to exchange their reserves for the mountain of private debt that the Fed is holding and the Fed lacks enough Treasury bonds with which to conduct ordinary open market operations. It is surprising that the long-term interest rates do not yet reflect the resulting risk of future inflation.

The writer is professor of economics at Harvard and president emeritus of the National Bureau of Economic Research. He chaired the Council of Economic Advisers under President Reagan and is a member of President Obama’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board"

Saturday, April 11, 2009

China’s banking regulator is examining whether it needs to curb lending after new bank loans surged to a record in March

TO BE NOTED: From Bloomberg:

"China Loans, Money Supply Jump to Records on Stimulus (Update1)


By Kevin Hamlin

April 11 (Bloomberg) -- China’s new lending surged more than sixfold from a year earlier to a record 1.89 trillion yuan ($277 billion) in March, adding to signs that growth in the world’s third-biggest economy is gathering pace.

M2, the broadest measure of money supply, grew 25.5 percent, the central bank said on its Web site today. That’s the fastest since Bloomberg began compiling data in 1998 and more than the 21.5 percent median estimate in a survey of 12 economists.

President Hu Jintao said April 1 that China’s 4 trillion yuan stimulus plan was taking effect, after urban fixed-asset investment surged 26.5 percent in the first two months. China’s lending boom contrasts with the struggle in the U.S. to rid banks of illiquid assets and efforts by central banks from Switzerland to Japan to unfreeze credit.

“China is unusual in that it has this incredible capacity to mobilize all its institutions -- central government, local governments and the entire banking system -- to boost government-influenced investments,” said Vikram Nehru, the World Bank’s Washington-based chief Asia economist.

China’s banks, which are mostly state-owned, have already met the bulk of the government’s target of at least 5 trillion yuan of new loans this year. Lending may top that level by as much as 3 trillion yuan, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

The explosion in credit since the central bank dropped lending restrictions in November prompted the nation’s banking regulator to warn this month that lenders face a “severe” challenge in managing their risks.

Hazard for Banks?

“The central bank had to ensure it did enough to reflate the economy,” said Kevin Lai, an economist with Daiwa Institute of Research in Hong Kong. “The question now is whether it has done more than is needed.”

A concentration of loans in infrastructure projects is a potential hazard for banks, China Banking Regulatory Commission Vice Chairman Jiang Dingzhi wrote in the April 1 edition of China Finance, a magazine affiliated with the central bank. Unusual growth in discounted bills, which are used for working capital and dilute banks’ lending profits, “deserves high attention,” Jiang said.

“The biggest dangers to China’s economy and financial system come from within, not from outside,” Jiang Zhenghua, former vice chairman of China’s parliamentary standing committee, said at a financial conference in Beijing today. “The biggest of these hidden dangers is the degree of bad loans in China.”

Not everyone agrees on the risks.

Loan Quality

China Merchants Bank Co., the nation’s fifth-largest by market value, said this week that providing money for infrastructure projects will improve the quality of its book by adding more medium- to long-term loans.

Besides the risk of bad loans, the credit boom may inflate asset prices and increase the likelihood of inflation making a comeback. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index of stocks has climbed about 34 percent this year.

“Some of the money has gone to the property market, some to the stock market,” said Lai at Daiwa Research. “It is not what the central bank wants to see.”

Excessive loan growth may “lead to inflationary pressure in the medium term, exacerbate credit risk and could potentially contribute to higher volatility in the economy,” said Ma Jun, chief China economist at Deutsche Bank AG in Hong Kong.

Recovery Signs

Investment growth, a jump in vehicle sales and rising property transactions are among signs of a nascent recovery, according to the World Bank’s Nehru. Manufacturing expanded in March for the first time in six months, according to a government-backed index. Automobile sales rose to a record 1.08 million vehicles, the official Xinhua News Agency said.

“With loan growth rates exceeding official targets, bank regulators may urge more restraint, to guard against excessive liquidity,” Jing Ulrich, head of China equities at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Hong Kong, wrote in a report today.

China’s banking regulator is examining whether it needs to curb lending after new bank loans surged to a record in March, the Shanghai Securities News reported on April 8, citing unidentified people.

Still, exports fell a record 25.7 percent in February, Chinese steel prices have dropped this year, and industries face “great difficulty,” according to Ou Xinqian, a vice minister of Industry and Information Technology.

Trade Surplus

China’s trade surplus shrank 45 percent to $62.5 billion in the first quarter, from $114.3 billion in the previous quarter. The country’s foreign-exchange reserves grew by the least in eight years to $1.9537 trillion, the central bank said today.

Economic growth cooled to 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter, the slowest pace in seven years. The first-quarter figure is due April 16.

Macquarie Securities Ltd. on April 8 raised its forecast for China’s growth this year by 1 percentage point to as much as 8 percent. China International Capital Corp. last week raised its estimate to as much as 8 percent from a previous forecast of 7.3 percent.

To contact the reporter on this story: Kevin Hamlin in Beijing at khamlin@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: April 11, 2009 00:09 EDT "

Sunday, January 4, 2009

"But for now at least you have the means to understand what money supply is and how it is measured"

Another nice resource post from Jesse's Cafe Americain:

"Money Supply: A Primer


You walk into a Merchant and a sign says, "All Items on Sale Today for Cash Only No Credit."

You are interested in purchasing an item. The Merchant, being a crafty sort asks "How much money do you have to spend(in US dollars)?"

How would you answer that if you are being truthful?

You might start by looking into your wallet and pockets, and counting all the cash and coins you have with you at that moment.

M0: Monetary Base

This is equivalent to the monetary base, or M0. It is money you have that is immediately available requiring no change or conversion. There is very little risk to the merchant, unless it happens to be counterfeit which is easily verified.

"Not enough" says the Merchant. "I am sorry, but do you have more?"

M1

Then you remember that in addition to cash, you have your checkbook with a current balance in it, and a debit card to an account you maintain in a local bank, but with no overdraft or lines of credit provisions.

That plus the currency in your pockets is M1. See the difference? You do not have ALL your money in your pockets for immediate presentation, but with a little transactional effort the money is readily available and it is inherently your money, it belongs to you. It is just being held elsewhere besides your pockets and wallet. The merchant assumes a little more risk, but he can quickly call your bank to verify that the funds are available for the check, and the debit card is even more mechanized. More risk, a little more delay, but almost as 'good as cash.'

"I am sorry sir," says the Merchant, "but this is still not enough to exchange for such a valuable object as I have for sale here."

M2

You think about it, and remember that you have a savings account across the street at the bank, and a money market fund at your brokerage office next door, that have more of your money on deposit. You have no cards for those accounts, but it would be an easy thing to walk next door or across the street and obtain the cash.

This is M2. There is a more complex transaction involved, since the transfer is not electronic as in the case of a debit card, and you must leave the store to obtain the money in the form of currency unless they bring it over to you. But it is your money that is available to you on demand. There is a small amount of risk of your bank not being solvent when you need the money, but these are slight inconveniences compared to the safety of not carrying around large sums of money that earn no interest in the form of cash.

"I am so sorry," says the Merchant. "But this item is far too valuable to part with for such a sum as you have offered."

M3

You think about it, and remember that you have a large Certificate of Deposit at the bank across the street that matures in one year. There is a small penalty if you redeem it today to receive your money since you promised it to them for a time in exchange for a specific return, and you must fill out some paperwork, but it is still your money. It involves no sale of an asset or conversion.

That is M3. It involves money that is still yours without borrowing, but has additional conditions set up on it for its retrieval.

One could make the case, and perhaps appropriately so, that while certificates of deposit with a term contract that might effect their value are money, they are not readily available money since the terms of the CD's may differ greatly. They are not 'liquid' and the value before maturity is not always certain due to a penalty.

MZM

If one takes all the things we describe as M2, but takes out the time deposits or certificates of deposit, and includes ALL money market funds, that is what the Fed considers to be the broadest measure of liquid money, or Money of Zero Maturity (MZM). "Zero maturity" means that the money is not tied up for a period of time to mature to its full value.

Are credit cards or loans Money? No,those are all forms of borrowing something that is not yours that you promise to return with conditions. You are receiving money that was not yours.

Credit Is Not Money.

Credit, or debt, is the 'potential' for money, a way of receiving it.

Whether water is held in a canteen, a well, a cistern, or a private lake, it is still water and it is yours if you own it. So too money is still money if it is yours, no matter under what conditions you hold it or save it for your use.

The cloud of credit, or debt depending on your perspective, is the potential for money as it is defined in our economy. It is a source of money. At a given point in time, you either have the money as your property or you do not.

But the source is not the money itself, and the source can be different and can change over time. In our society borrowing is so common and so technologically convenient that there is little difference in most people's mind between credit and money.

But the difference is that if you spend real money, you incur no obligation for it in the future. You receive no payment request from another at the end of the month.

That is what money is, at least in our economy, and the various measure of money as it is held and shifts through the economy and a variety of transactions, where it flows and rest in pools, and moves again. A measure of the money supply is a snapshot in time.

How money increases or decreases, and how it is stored or held, is a significant indicator of economic activity for those who study such things. It is also significantly affected by custom, technology, and the prevailing mood and perception of the public.

The best and broadest measures of money supply are either MZM, or M2, now that M3 is no longer being reported by the Fed. This can easily be seen from the illustrations.

As springs feed into brooks, and brooks streams, and streams into rivers, and rivers into lakes, so the money supply components change in size and shape over time as money flows from its various sources. The speed of the flow is the 'velocity of money' and as one can easily understand that flow will have a different force and speed depending on when you measure it, and whether you are measuring one of the streams or a major river.

People often prefer to jump into discussions and turn them into debates (arguments) with hair-splitting definitions (what is 'control' of the money supply) and red herrings (why does a dollar cross the road?) before defining any terms or facts and setting some boundaries for the analysis, because their goal too often is not understanding, but to promote some theory or point of view. 'Winning the argument' is their objective, not a search for the truth.

Money is the instrument of the official economy. This gives money a certain arbitrariness over time because, after all, it is the product of a committee. Official money is the creation of government, managed by its agents, validated by the people who use it.

Official money rises and falls from favor to disfavor, as do governments. What if you were a citizen of Zimbabwe? Or the US in the 1860's? Or Germany in 1922? How would you feel about your official money then? Why is it different for you now? What would change your opinion?

What is the 'natural growth rate' of the money supply? Zero?

The discussion of how money supply increases, and who or what determines the supply, and what an appropriate level of growth would be is a matter for discussion on another day. So too is the strange phenomenon of 'natural forms of money' that keep turning up in every era and nearly every society.

But for now at least you have the means to understand what money supply is and how it is measured, and how it is different from potential money, or credit, the representations of money, and asset stores of wealth."

Now David Friedman, with a good resource post:

"
The Price of Money and Other Errors

It is common for people who think they understand economics to describe the interest rate as the price of money. If it were true, then printing more money would lead to lower interest rates, and many of the same people think it does.

The next time someone tells you that the interest rate is the price of money, ask him what he thinks a reasonable interest rate is and offer to buy some money from him—at ten cents on the dollar if the rate he suggests is ten percent. As that example illustrates, the interest rate is not the price of money. The price of money is what you must give up to get it. If apples cost fifty cents each, the price of money is two apples. More generally, the price of money is the inverse of the price level—when prices are high, that means that money is not worth very much.

The interest rate is the rent of money measured in money. Suppose you borrow a hundred dollars at ten percent. If the price of a dollar is two apples, you are borrowing the price of two hundred apples and paying the price of twenty apples a year in interest. If the money supply doubles, prices double, including the price of an apple, you are borrowing the price of a hundred apples and paying the price of ten apples a year in interest. If you prefer, you could do the same real transaction as before by borrowing two hundred dollars and paying twenty dollars a year interest, still at ten percent.

As this example suggests, there is no connection between the amount of money in circulation and the interest rate. There is a connection between the rate of change of the amount of money in circulation and the interest rate, but it goes in the opposite of the direction implied by the error I am discussing. When the money supply is increasing and prices are rising, nominal interest rates are high, not low, because lenders must be compensated for the fact that they will be paid back in dollars worth less than the ones they lent.

Much of the confusion here comes from the multiple meanings of the term "money." When we say someone has lots of money, we don't usually mean that he has a lot of green paper or a large balance in his checking account; we mean that he is wealthy. His wealth might be in money, it might be in valuable real estate, it might be in stocks and bonds. If there is lots of money in that sense—more precisely, if lots of people have wealth they would like to lend out—that will tend to lower interest rates. But that has nothing to do with the amount of money in circulation.

What brings up this particular confusion at the moment is the attempt to link the current crisis with the events that led to the Great Depression. Those events produced a sharp drop in the money supply, due to banks going broke and depositors either losing or withdrawing their deposits. Given the nature of a fractional reserve system, replacing a mix of currency and deposits with just currency reduces the total amount of money in circulation, in that case by a lot. The problem could have been prevented if the Federal Reserve System had kept those banks from failing, which was part of the purpose it had been set up for, a purpose that had been served earlier by the private arrangements among banks that it effectively replaced( A GOOD POINT ).

That series of events cannot happen now because the FDIC insures bank deposits( TRUE ). What we are observing is not a drop in the money supply. It is a loss of wealth, as firms discover that their assets, in particular mortgages and securities backed by mortgages, are worth less than they thought. That explains why the proposed bailout is enormously greater than would be required to prevent a run on bank deposits( TRUE. BUT NOT A CALLING RUN. ). $700 billion is roughly half the total money supply of the U.S. (M1—currency plus checking accounts and similar assets)--and about half of that is currency, which isn't going to vanish whatever happens to the banks. The total wealth of the economy is enormously greater than the total amount of money in the economy, and the bailout is a response not to a reduction in the amount of money but a reduction in the amount of wealth.

That also explains why the bailout has very little to do with preventing another Great Depression. The U.S. money supply at the moment is at or near its all time high, and it is hard to see how anything likely to happen, with or without a bailout, will reduce it by much. The mechanism that set off the Great Depression isn't happening.( I AGREE )

What is happening is the failure of lots of firms. The failure of a firm doesn't wipe out wealth, except to the extent that the firm itself—its firm culture, web of relationships and such—has some value. When a firm fails, that is at least some evidence that that value was negative, which is why nobody chose to buy out the firm and keep it going. The ordinary assets of the firm—its buildings, land, stocks, bonds, mortgages, and whatever it owns—don't vanish when the firm fails, they get sold to someone else.

The bailout is not a way of preventing the loss of value. The loss (or transfer) of value occurred when people made bad mortgage loans( TRUE ). What happened more recently was the recognition of that loss. All the bailout can do is to shift( SOME OF THE ) the loss from some people to others, from the stockholders and creditors of firms that are now effectively bankrupt( THESE BUSINESSES I AGREE ) to the taxpayers( I AGREE ).

All of which comes back to confusion over the meaning of "money."

Now, Bob McTeer:

"Is the Fed Printing Too Much Money?

For as long as I can remember people have referred to the Fed printing money-usually when they disapprove. The implication is that printing money is inflationary.

I've always assumed that those who use that terminology understood that "printing money" shouldn't be taken literally. Nowadays, I'm not so sure. Several financial talking heads I've heard recently sound like they mean it literally. Often the context has been whether the Fed might buy longer-term treasuries.

While most of you know this, I feel compelled to point out that the Fed doesn't literally print money. That is done by the Bureau of Engraving and Printing, which is under the Treasury Department. The amount of printed or paper money that gets into circulation is not determined by the Bureau, the Treasury, or the Fed. It is determined by the preference of the public for holding currency as opposed to deposit accounts in financial institution.

If the public collectively decides it wants to hold more of their money in the form of currency-as they normally do as the Christmas season approaches-they simply cash more checks at their banks and take the currency. The proportion of the money supply (however we define it) held in paper money rises relative to the proportion held as deposits. More checks cashed at banks are paid for by the public with deposit balances. The banks will, in turn, order more currency from the Federal Reserve, paying for it by drawing down their reserve balances on deposit at the Fed. When the Fed's own inventory of currency gets low, it orders more from the Bureau of Engraving and Printing and pays for it by increasing Treasury deposits at the Fed. So the amount of currency printed is up to the public.

I should mention that when paper money gets too worn or damaged, the Fed destroys it and replaces it with new inventory from the Bureau. That means there is a relatively steady printing of new currency even when the total money supply-currency plus certain deposits-isn't growing rapidly.

The Fed influences the creation of money while the public determines the portion to be held in currency. Substituting "creating money" for "printing money" would correct many assertions that are made. However, the term "creating money" may also be misunderstood by those who aren't familiar with the process.

The Fed normally "creates money" by buying short-term government securities in the open market. The seller of the government securities gives up the securities and gets more deposits in his bank. He traded one asset for another. The banks owe more deposit liabilities to their customers, offset by more reserve deposits at the Fed-when it deposited the check received from its customer. The Fed has more government securities on the asset side of its balance sheet offset by more reserve liabilities owed to the banks. Everybody's balance sheet balances. New money was created in the process, but no net new assets or wealth. New money was created-not printed. If its growing deposits (money supply) causes the public to rebalance into more currency, more money might then be "printed," but it will be paid for with deposit money."

All three of these posts provide clear explanations and should be kept.

The question of whether the Fed is creating too much money these days is a different question to be dealt with separately."

Friday, December 19, 2008

A sign of relief is emerging as corporate bonds spreads - borrowing costs for investment grade and high yield companies - stabilize, even fall.

Rebecca Wilder on New N Economics also with an interesting post:

"A glimmer of light: Fed policy is working

There is a slew of bad economic news out there, but finally a glimmer of light emerges. The light is dull – a 40-watt rather than 200-watt light bulb- but is nevertheless there: Fed policy is working.

What is Fed policy? Fed policy is massive:

  • Adding $1.4 trillion in liquidity to the domestic and global banking systems via loanable funds and currency swaps
  • Making unprecedented loans to the private sector, American International Group and Bear Stearns
  • Buying agency bonds directly
  • Creating demand in the commercial paper market with $315 billion net transactions
  • Using the Treasury to sterilize inflows
  • On the horizon: buying U.S. Treasuries directly, mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and perhaps other instruments not yet mentioned (CDS, corporate debt, etc.)
Some signs that Fed policy is working:

Corporate spreads are stabilizing if not falling

The chart illustrates corporate bond indices for investment grade and high yield corporate bonds since the beginning of the year. A sign of relief is emerging as corporate bonds spreads - borrowing costs for investment grade and high yield companies - stabilize, even fall( THIS IS GREAT NEWS. IT SIGNALS SOME EASING IN THE FEAR AND AVERSION TO RISK ).

Corporate bond rates are important - the higher are the costs to borrow, the lower will the borrowing be for new capital investment( ABSOLUTELY. I WOULD STILL TARGET A TAX CUT TOWARDS INVESTMENT TO FURTHER EASE THE RISK AVERSION ). See this post to for corporate bond spread indices (against Treasuries) on a longer horizon.

The money supply – all measures of – is growing faster on a weekly basis

And surging on an annual basis

The chart illustrates various measures of the U.S. money supply (the data and definitions are listed here). The growth rate of non-M1 components of M2 (Table 4) started to fall slightly at the end of October, but has since then picked up speed. The 4-week average M2 – a better look at the trend – is growing at a record 8%. Finally, M3 (at least most of M3) is slowing on an annual, but it is reverting back to its longer-term trend rather than falling off a cliff. The Fed is keeping the money supply afloat; this will offset some of the negative price pressures going forward.( YES. GOOD NEWS )

Mortgage rates are falling

Who said that traditional monetary policy – cutting the target federal funds rate – was dead, because clearly it is not. In the wake of the Fed’s December 16th announcement, mortgage rates fell with force to 5.27% (as of 7am on December 19th from Bankrate.com). And with the Fed gearing up for its $500 billion MBS program, I expect that mortgage rates will fall further, potentially driving up buyer demand in the housing market. ( I'M FINE WITH THIS, BUT WOULD PREFER IF IT FELL NATURALLY, WITHOUT THE GOVERNMENT TARGETING IT )

It looks like the U.S. economy is just skirting a financial meltdown. Phew, now we have a recession to contend with.( I AGREE )