choosing to excuse many of the atrocities committed in eastern Congo

TO BE NOTED: From Enough:

Amnesty and the Culture of Impunity in Congo

Posted by Laura Heaton on May 10, 2009

News out of Kinshasa this week about the Congolese parliament’s decision to grant amnesty to rebels in the eastern region is certainly raising a few eyebrows, even as Congolese officials touted it as step toward peace.

"We want to open new paths to peace in our country. The nation truly hopes to turn the page," said Information Minister Lambert Mende, according to Reuters.

However, impunity is widely seen as a driving force behind the ongoing conflict in the east, where fighting between various rebel groups -- some aligned with and some against the Congolese army -- has displaced an estimated one million people. In this lawless environment, it’s difficult to even guess how many people have had a hand in the violence that has long destabilized eastern Congo.

Of course, this same logic explains the practical thinking behind the parliament’s decision; in a region where rebels are often loosely affiliated and motivated by opportunistic rather than ideological goals, it would be a massive undertaking to try to locate and bring to justice all those who served in rebel group. (As an aid worker in North Kivu once memorably explained to me, “A farmer can arm himself with his shovel and become a Mayi Mayi one day, and then put it down and return to being a civilian the next.”)

However, the national government has now effectively rubber stamped this culture of impunity by choosing to excuse many of the atrocities committed in eastern Congo. The parliament rightly drew the line at pardoning those accused on war crimes, but a transitional justice process -- challenging, as it would be -- must be put in place to send the message that there are legal consequences for all those who commit abuses."

in Congo after the 1994 Rwandan genocide and has been a principal cause of the deadliest documented conflict since World War II

From the Washington Post:

"Rwanda's Move Into Congo Fuels Suspicion
Some in Mineral-Rich Region See Broader Motives Than Disarming Hutu Militiamen

By Stephanie McCrummen
Washington Post Foreign Service
Friday, February 13, 2009; A01

KIGALI, Rwanda -- With thousands of Rwandan troops fanned out across eastern Congo's green hills, many residents and international observers are questioning what is really behind the operation in the mineral-rich region and how long it is likely to last.

The official explanation, offered by both Rwandan and Congolese diplomats, is straightforward. After two wars and a decade of mistrust, the two nations finally agreed to deal militarily with a common menace -- the Rwandan Hutu militia known as the Democratic Liberation Forces of Rwanda, or FDLR, which reorganized in Congo after the 1994 Rwandan genocide and has been a principal cause of the deadliest documented conflict since World War II.

By some estimates, at least 5 million people died in multi-sided wars over more than a decade, mostly from disease, hunger and the collapse of human services associated with the fighting. The humanitarian catastrophe was largely ignored by the United States and other Western nations, while United Nations peacekeepers failed to halt the violence.

In acting now, Congo and Rwanda have in theory ended a proxy war that had played out for years in eastern Congo. Rwanda pulled the plug on rebel leader Laurent Nkunda, whom it arrested last month. And Congo abruptly turned on its longtime ally the FDLR, joining the Rwandans in an operation to hunt down the militia.

"Rwanda and Congo have decided to come together as neighbors," said Joseph Mutaboba, who was Rwanda's envoy during several rounds of talks. "And we have been able to tackle the problems that are ours."

But some observers see much broader economic and political motives behind Rwanda's military foray -- its third in Congo in the past decade -- that have more to do with Rwanda's regional ambitions than with the 6,000 or so FDLR militiamen. As recently as October, Rwandan officials had cast the militia as "a Congolese problem," saying it did not pose an immediate military threat to Rwanda.

"Is the FDLR now suddenly on the verge of becoming more militarily powerful? I don't think we've seen that," said Alison Des Forges, a Human Rights Watch researcher and leading expert on Rwanda. "And if they haven't, then what you have is Rwanda trotting out an old warhorse of an excuse to go in again. The question is, what is the intent?"

The stakes are high for the joint Rwandan-Congolese military offensive against the FDLR, given its potential to trigger more regional instability than it resolves. Rwanda's two earlier invasions succeeded in disrupting the militia's operations but also helped spawn more than a decade of conflict that at one point drew in as many as eight African nations in a scramble for regional supremacy and a piece of Congo's vast mineral wealth.

Although the two Rwandan invasions were devastating for the Congolese, they were hugely beneficial for Rwanda, which is still struggling to rebuild after the 100 days of well-planned violence in 1994 when Hutu extremists killed an estimated 800,000 Tutsis and moderate Hutus. Many Rwandans became involved in the lucrative mineral trade out of eastern Congo after the genocide, and some observers speculate that the current military operation aims to solidify Rwanda's economic stake in the region.

"It was a period of great economic boom for Rwanda -- a lot of people got rich, including military officers," Des Forges said, adding that the current military operation could help Rwandan President Paul Kagame relieve internal pressures on his government, which allows little room for dissent. "Presumably, if the troops were back in Congo for a substantial period of time, they could expect to reap certain benefits. It could also be beneficial for Rwanda to have greater control over economic resources than they've had before."

On that score, unverifiable rumors abound about secret deals and gentlemen's agreements struck between Congo and Rwanda over mineral rights and mineral processing. At a local level, Congolese villagers who have long suspected Rwanda of wanting to annex a swath of eastern Congo say they are certain that their tiny but militarily powerful neighbor is interested in more than disarming the FDLR.

"Congo is rich," said Eric Sorumweh, who said he watched hundreds of Rwandan troops pass by his village last month. "So they just come to loot the wealth of Congo."

Those suspicions, along with Rwanda's messy history in Congo, have fueled criticism of Congolese President Joseph Kabila, who has been lambasted by political opponents for inviting an old enemy back into the country. Late last month, Kabila pledged that the estimated 7,000 Rwandan troops in Congo would leave by the end of February. This time, his supporters say, the situation with Rwanda is different.

While conspiracy theories swirl, Kabila's backers -- as well as a number of Western diplomats who support the joint operation against the FDLR -- say Congo's deal with Rwanda represents a mature realization by Kabila and Kagame that their interests are better served by working together officially, rather than through rebel proxies.

"I think the two presidents have understood that official contact can be to their advantage," said Julien Paluku Kahongya, governor of North Kivu province in eastern Congo. "Now we can start thinking together of how we can lift the economy. For agriculture and trading and other economic reasons, Rwanda will be coming here, and we will be going to Rwanda."

According to Kahongya and others, the downsides of the proxy war between Rwanda and Congo were becoming increasingly clear. Kabila was politically threatened by the stunning advance of Nkunda's rebels across eastern Congo last year. And Rwanda was embarrassed by a U.N. report in December that found it to be directly or tacitly supporting Nkunda. As a result, Rwanda's prized reputation as a darling of the aid world suffered, the Netherlands and Sweden cut off aid, and international pressure mounted for the government to solve its differences with Congo. The report also found that Congo was collaborating with the FDLR.

At the same time, hundreds of millions of dollars from the European Union, the World Bank and other donors -- for major road, railroad and power projects that would benefit both countries -- were largely predicated upon a detente between the two sides. That is supposed to become official when Rwanda and Congo restore full diplomatic relations, probably next month.

"Rwanda's interest is in a stable region, and you can't have that with multiple armed groups running around in eastern Congo," said a Western diplomat in the region who was not authorized to speak publicly. "Plus there's a whole system of militia taxes and corruption there, and none of that benefits Rwanda. They see their economic welfare as tied to greater integration in East Africa."

And so Congo and Rwanda devised a way to cut out the middlemen -- launching the joint military operation to disarm the FDLR, neutralize Nkunda's rebels and, in theory, fold an array of other, smaller militias into the Congolese army.

The entry of Rwandan troops into Congo also represents the failure of U.N. peacekeepers to tame the militias and rebels of eastern Congo. A deal signed in Nairobi in December 2007 called upon the peacekeepers to assist the Congolese army in disarming the FDLR, but that effort never got off the ground. A recent U.N. request for an additional 3,000 peacekeepers also fell flat, with only Bangladesh offering troops so far.

"Now things have turned in such a way that it's possible for the Rwandans to do it," said Philip Lancaster, a professor at the University of Victoria in Canada who has been involved in U.N. efforts to demobilize Congo's militias. "I think this is a clear case of two African states agreeing to solve their own problems, seeing that the international community can't."

According to a U.S. official who is in close contact with the Rwandan military, the goal is not to completely dismantle the FDLR, but merely to scatter it. Several of its key leaders are not even in eastern Congo, but are living in the Congolese capital, Kinshasa, or in Europe.

So far, very little information is trickling out about the operation. According to U.N. officials, Rwandan forces were able in recent days to capture two villages that had served as FDLR bases. More than 40 FDLR fighters have been killed and 11 taken prisoner, and more than 500 fighters and their families have simply surrendered.

Several large groups of militiamen were fleeing west last week, deeper into Congo, the U.N. officials said, and Rwandan soldiers were pursuing them."

Me:

DonthelibertarianDemocrat wrote:

"The entry of Rwandan troops into Congo also represents the failure of U.N. peacekeepers to tame the militias and rebels of eastern Congo. A deal signed in Nairobi in December 2007 called upon the peacekeepers to assist the Congolese army in disarming the FDLR, but that effort never got off the ground. A recent U.N. request for an additional 3,000 peacekeepers also fell flat, with only Bangladesh offering troops so far. "

This is the sad fact. The UN troops were unable to stop the violence. Outside pressure forced Rwanda and the DRC to cooperate, as is happening with Uganda in respect to the Lord's Resistance Army.

I'm sorry, but it was indifference, not meddling, that allowed 5 million people to needlessly die.

Nkunda, once Rwanda's tool in keeping Hutu militias at bay, had become an embarrassment.

From Stop The War In North Kivu, some context:

"Diplomatic pressure and unknown deals In Analysis, News on January 25, 2009 at 3:43 pm

Last Friday, Chris McGreal provided a very comprehensive analysis of the recent events in The Guardian. Together with Foreign Policy, the Guardian points to diplomatic pressure pushing the deal, specially after Kiwanja and the Stearns report:

Kagame’s closest allies overseas, the US and Britain( ABOUT TIME ), which provide the bulk of Rwanda’s foreign aid and a lot of diplomatic cover, quietly made clear that the conflict in eastern Congo had to be brought to an end.

However, as Jason Stearns said last Friday on the NYT, Nkunda’s arrest is part of a broader realignment. As he underlines, the unknowns and risks over the horizon are many."

Here's the Guardian:

Rwanda: why former military hero was disowned after rampages in Congo
The arrest of Laurent Nkunda reflects a dramatic diplomatic shift after tiny but ambitious state found itself on receiving end of international criticism

• Chris McGreal, Africa correspondent
  
• guardian.co.uk, Friday 23 January 2009 13.41 GMT
• Article history

Laurent Nkunda: had become an embarrassment to Kigali Photograph: AP

Tony Blair happened to be in Rwanda at the time the Tutsi rebel general, Laurent Nkunda, was slaughtering his way through eastern Congo late last year.

Blair – who has taken on saving Rwanda as another of his post-premiership missions, inserting people into the offices of the president, prime minister and cabinet in Kigali to help run the government – was keen to talk up the prospects for the tiny central African nation that has made remarkable strides since the 1994 genocide that left about 800,000( 800,000 ) Tutsis dead.

But the world's attention was on a different aspect of Rwanda entirely. This time Rwanda was on the receiving end of international criticism for backing Nkunda amid the continuing horror of massacres, mass rape and perpetual refugees in Congo, where about 5 million( 5 Million ) have died as the result of more than a decade of war and its effects.

Nkunda, once Rwanda's tool in keeping Hutu militias at bay, had become an embarrassment. The rebel general had already spilled a lot of blood before the crisis flared again last October when his forces marched to the edge of Goma in eastern Congo. But on that occasion the world, for once, took notice when Nkunda's men went through the town of Kiwanja systematically killing hundreds of the remaining men, and some families.

In Rwanda President Paul Kagame's government was alarmed. His minority Tutsi-led administration, which drew much of its foreign support from the moral authority of having ended the genocide, was now seen more as perpetrator than victim.

Kagame's grand scheme to project his country as a rapidly modernising state embracing Anglo-Saxon liberal capitalism – even to the extent of switching the education system from French to English( WOW. OF COURSE, HE'S PROBABLY NOT FOND OF THE FRENCH. ) – was threatened by its support of Nkunda. Its involvement in Congo sent out the message that Rwanda was really run by another bunch of bloodthirsty warlords.

At that point Nkunda became more of a liability than an asset. His arrest yesterday, as he fled into Rwanda with large amounts of cash, gold and diamonds( HOW NICE ), is one part of a dramatic diplomatic shift as Kigali tries to detach itself from direct involvement in Congo that used to pay dividends in securing its frontier and vast profits from the plunder of minerals but which has become a political burden.

Nkunda's close ties to Rwanda go back to his days fighting in the rebel army, the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), that overthrew the genocidal regime and took power in 1994. He returned to Congo – or Zaire as it then was – and was again drawn in to collaboration with the RPF after it invaded Congo twice in the second half of the 1990s to fight the Hutu militias that had fled there after leading the genocide.

After Rwanda pulled out of Congo in 2003, it saw Nkunda's National Congress for the Defence of the People (CNDP) as a buffer force against the Hutu force, the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), which had gained control of swaths of territory on Rwanda's border and kept up the mantra of genocide, threatening to exterminate Tutsis.

But Nkunda, in the name of defending Tutsis, was increasingly bloodthirsty. His forces rampaged through cities such as Bukavu, murdering and raping. They also got into the mining business, getting rich out of plundering gold, diamonds and coltan, a crucial but rare component of mobile phones.

Much of the world turned a blind eye to Rwanda's backing for Nkunda. Officially it had stopped because Kigali was embarrassed by his excesses but there was no doubt that links remained. Nkunda's soldiers included English-speaking Tutsis most likely drawn from Rwandan exiles who grew up in Uganda. The UN observed weapons being shipped through a triangle of land that linked Rwanda, Uganda and Congo. Above all, for a long time Nkunda served Rwanda's interests and Kigali declined to condemn him.

No more. Rwanda is trying to reshape itself as a modern, forward-looking country, far from the semi-fascist state that took hold during the three decades from independence to the genocide. The government's successes can be seen in how the capital has boomed since the genocide. Millions of dollars flowed in to build new hotels now filled with tourists and conferences. Kagame is talking up his country's prospects as a regional information technology hub.

But Congo increasingly threatened to wreck the new image, and Nkunda – who, as he grew more powerful, took to greeting visitors to his hilltop headquarters dressed in flowing white robes, like some messianic figure, with his white pet goat in tow – went from being an asset to a problem.

The political capital that the minority Tutsi-led government of Rwanda could draw on because of western guilt and sympathy after the genocide was increasingly overshadowed by the crimes being committed in Congo.

In December a UN report accused the Rwandan government of fuelling the conflict through covert support to Nkunda. The report also accused the Congolese government of ties to the Hutu militias threatening Rwanda, but that attracted less attention.

Rwanda vigorously denied the accusations but they were well documented and a further embarrassment after the crimes of Nkunda's forces a few weeks earlier. In response, some European governments cut off aid to Rwanda, emphasising to Kigali that it was now no longer viewed as the victim.

Kagame's closest allies overseas, the US and Britain, which provide the bulk of Rwanda's foreign aid and a lot of diplomatic cover, quietly made clear that the conflict in eastern Congo had to be brought to an end.( AT LAST )

Last week saw two dramatic and complementary developments. Nkunda faced a revolt within the CNDP, with some of his officers saying they had removed him from command and would no longer fight the Congolese government. At the same time, thousands of Rwandan troops moved across the border in agreement with the Congolese government to purse the Hutu militias controlling swaths of territory.

The deal was in place. Rwanda would neutralise Nkunda and the CNDP so long as the Hutu militias were also confronted. Tellingly, the rebel general fled across the border after he was confronted by a joint Rwanda-Congolese force. Nkunda's benefactor was allied with his enemy in pursuit of him.

Eastern Congo has been here before, and there is unlikely to be a complete halt to the violence for some time. There are still too many armed groups and mining groups with a vested interest in continued instability.

But dealing with the Hutu militia and Nkunda does confront the root causes of the conflict in eastern Congo for the first time, and gives its long suffering people the prospect of hope they have not had for many years."( GOOD )

From the NY Times:

A Congolese Rebel Leader Who Once Seemed Untouchable Is Caught

Uriel Sinai/Getty Images

Gen. Laurent Nkunda, shown in November 2008, was apprehended late Thursday by Rwandan troops. Rwandan authorities on Friday were tight-lipped about what they would do with him.

By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN

Published: January 23, 2009

KIGALI, Rwanda — Overnight, the battle in Congo has suddenly shifted.

Skip to next paragraph

Enlarge This Image

Benedicte Kurzen/VII Mentor

Gen. Laurent Nkunda, the leader of a group of rebels, with his pet goat Betty in the mountains of Congo in November.

Enlarge This Image

Benedicte Kurzen/VII Mentor

Mr. Nkunda at a training camp in North Kivu Province for the group of rebels that he leads.

General Nkunda was cornered near Bunagana.

Gen. Laurent Nkunda, the Congolese rebel leader whose brutal tactics and Congo-size ambitions have threatened to bring about another catastrophic war in central Africa, was arrested late Thursday, removing an explosive factor from the regional equation.

According to United Nations officials and Rwandan authorities, General Nkunda was captured by Rwandan troops as he tried to escape a Congolese-Rwandan offensive that has taken aim at several rebel groups terrorizing eastern Congo.

General Nkunda had seemed untouchable, commanding a hardened rebel force that routinely humiliated Congolese troops and then calmly gliding through muddy villages in impossibly white robes. But he may never have anticipated that his old ally, the Rwandan Army, would take him away.

The surprise arrest could be a major turning point for Congo, which has been mired in rebellion and bloodshed for much of the past decade. It instantly strengthens the hand of the Congolese government, militarily and politically, right when the government seemed about to implode. But it could also empower other, even more brutal rebel figures like Jean Bosco Ntaganda, General Nkunda’s former chief of staff, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court in The Hague for war crimes.

Still, analysts and politicians say they hope that General Nkunda’s capture at the hands of Rwanda means that the proxy war between Rwanda and Congo is finally drawing to a close.

A United Nations report in December accused high-ranking Rwandan officials of sending money and troops to General Nkunda, a fellow Tutsi who claimed to be protecting Congolese Tutsi from marauding Hutu militias. This cross-border enmity has been widely blamed for much of the turmoil, destruction, killing and raping that has vexed Congo for years.

John Prendergast, a founder of the Washington-based Enough Project, which campaigns against genocide, called it a “massive turn of events.”

“Finally the two countries are cooperating,” he said.

Kikaya bin Karubi, a member of Congo’s Parliament, said General Nkunda’s arrest “could be the beginning of the end of all the misery.”

“Look what happened at Kiwanja,” he said, referring to a small Congolese town where United Nations officials said General Nkunda’s forces went door to door, summarily executing dozens of civilians in November.

Now, if Congo gets its way, General Nkunda will have to face the consequences. The government is urging Rwanda to extradite General Nkunda so he can stand trial in Kinshasa, Congo’s capital, where he could face a war crimes tribunal and treason charges, punishable by death.

But Rwandan authorities were tight-lipped on Friday about what they would do with General Nkunda. “I can’t speculate,” said Maj. Jill Rutaremara, a spokesman for Rwanda’s Defense Forces. All he would say was that General Nkunda was “in the hands of Rwandan authorities.”

Though General Nkunda never controlled more than a handful of small towns in eastern Congo, he was Congo’s No. 1 troublemaker. His troops have been accused of committing massacres dating back to 2002. General Nkunda recently began cultivating national ambitions to overthrow Congo’s weak but democratically elected government, which threatened to draw in Congo’s neighbors and plunge central Africa into a regional war, something that has happened twice before.

General Nkunda’s confidence may have been his undoing. On Thursday night, hundreds of Rwandan troops cornered him near Bunagana. Congolese officials said he refused to be arrested and crossed into Rwanda, where he was surrounded and taken into custody. It is not clear how many men he had with him at the time, but it appears he was taken without a shot.

Just a few days ago, Rwanda sent several thousand soldiers into Congo as part of a joint operation to flush out Hutu militants who had killed countless people in the 1994 Rwanda genocide and were still haunting the hills on Congo’s side of the border.

Few expected the Rwandan troops to go after General Nkunda. Not only is he a Tutsi, like Rwanda’s leaders, but he had risen to power by fighting these same Hutu militants. Several demobilized Rwandan soldiers recently revealed a secret operation to slip Rwandan soldiers into Congo to fight alongside General Nkunda. He had been trained by the Rwandan Army in the mid-1990s and was widely believed to be an agent for Rwanda’s extensive business and security interests in eastern Congo.

But it seems that the Rwandan government abruptly changed its tack, possibly because of the international criticism it has endured for its ties to General Nkunda. Several European countries recently cut aid to Rwanda, sending a strong signal to a poor country that needs outside help. Rwanda may have figured the time was ripe to remove General Nkunda, analysts said.

Earlier this month, some of General Nkunda’s top commanders split from him, saying they were fed up with his king-of-the-world brand of leadership. One of those commanders was Mr. Ntaganda. Prosecutors at the International Criminal Court have accused him of building an army of child soldiers, a war crime.

But Mr. Ntaganda suddenly switched sides, denouncing General Nkunda and saying that he and his men were now eager to join the Congolese Army, which they had been battling for years. Many analysts believe that the Congolese government promised to try to protect Mr. Ntaganda from being sent to The Hague.

According to Jason Stearns, an analyst who recently served on a United Nations panel examining the conflict: “It’s fairly clear that Kigali and Kinshasa have struck a deal. Kinshasa will allow Rwanda onto Congolese soil to hunt down” the Hutu militants, “and in return Rwanda will dethrone Nkunda.”

Congolese officials are now talking about restoring full diplomatic relations with Rwanda, which had been suspended for years, and reinvigorating economic ties. But many uncertainties remain, including a possible power scramble by other militant groups hoping to fill the vacuum.

“Nkunda’s arrest is part of a larger, radical realignment,” Mr. Stearns said. “There are, however, many unknowns and risks.”

From Enough Said:

Posted by Colin Thomas-Jensen on Jan 23, 2009

In a dramatic reversal of fortune for one of Central Africa’s most powerful warlords, Congolese rebel leader Laurent Nkunda was arrested by Rwandan authorities last night along the Congo-Rwanda border. When my colleague Rebecca and I met with Nkunda in the town of Rwanguba on Thanksgiving Day, he seemed on top of the world. His rebel movement, the National Congress for the Defense of People, or CNDP, had routed the Congolese army, embarrassed UN peacekeepers, consolidated control of a large swath of North Kivu province, and threatened the regional capital of Goma. Nkunda shrugged off allegations that his lieutenant, Bosco “The Terminator” Ntaganda, had directed a massacre of civilians in Kiwanja, and confidently demanded direct negotiations with Congolese President Laurent Kabila. Journalists flocked to his compound, diplomats had him on speed dial, and the UN appointed a former president of Nigeria to mediate a solution. This morning, Nkunda was in Rwandan custody, and it sounds like he is already back in Congo and headed for detention in the capital, Kinshasa. What happened?

The power play orchestrated by the Congolese and Rwandan governments has been brewing for weeks. As Nkunda’s power and ambition grew, the governments of both Rwanda and Congo came to see him as a serious problem, albeit for different reasons. Unable to defeat Nkunda militarily and unwilling to treat him as a legitimate political actor, President Kabila needed Rwanda’s help to neutralize him. Rwandan President Paul Kagame was stung by Nkunda’s increasingly bold pronouncements (particularly his ambition to take his fight all the way to Kinshsa) and a U.N. panel of experts report documenting Rwandan support for CNDP and involvement with conflict minerals in eastern Congo. European donors began to threaten aid money and Rwanda no longer had plausible deniability that it was not involved with Nkunda.

Congolese officials sought Rwandan help to get rid of Nkunda. The quid pro quo: the Rwandan military would be allowed to re-enter eastern Congo to hunt down the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda, or FDLR, a Rwandan Hutu rebel group led by commanders responsible for the 1994 Rwanda Genocide. In a fantastically cynical move, the two sides also agreed that indicted war criminal Bosco Ntaganda would replace Nkunda as head of CNDP, and that his forces would join in the offensive against the FDLR.

A week ago in Goma, Ntaganda announced that he had taken control of CNDP and would collaborate with the Congolese and Rwandan armies against the FDLR. As reported on this blog earlier this week, more than 3,000 Rwandan troops crossed into eastern Congo this past weekend, isolating Nkunda and ultimately arresting him. My colleague John Prendergast noted in the New York Times today, “Now the hard part begins.”

While the move to take more aggressive action to remove the FDLR from eastern Congo and arrest of Nkunda are welcome developments and could contribute mightily to a lasting peace in eastern Congo, there are lots of reasons to be profoundly apprehensive.

• The planned operations against the FDLR have the potential to be catastrophic for Congolese civilians. The Congolese army and Rwandan armies have abysmal track records in protecting civilians, and the FDLR will almost certainly not stand their ground and fight. As they have done in the past (and as the Lord’s Resistance Army has done in northeastern Congo), the FDLR may well melt into the bush, leave civilians to bear the brunt of the offensive, and return with a vengeance when the operation is over. Moreover, Congo and Rwanda have clear economic motive to assert control over valuable mines in FDLR controlled areas. This could be why the UN peacekeeping force charged with protecting civilians in eastern Congo has been kept deliberately in the dark and is now restricted from traveling to certain areas.
• The role of Bosco “The Terminator” Ntaganda sends a chilling message about the lack of accountability for crimes against humanity. Ntaganda is wanted for war crimes by the International Criminal Court, and the Congolese government, a signatory to the Rome Statute that established the ICC, is in full violation of international law by failing to arrest him. Human Rights Watch has documented his role in recent massacres.
• Even though Nkunda has been arrested, allowing Rwandan troops back onto Congolese soil is a dangerous gamble for Congolese President Kabila. Many people in eastern Congo loathe Rwanda for its behavior during the wars that ripped the country apart from 1996 to 2002, when they failed to dislodge the FDLR while looting substantial mineral wealth. The Rwandan military has been able to inflict substantial casualties on the FDLR on the past, but never to the point where they were able to break them as a force. The longer Rwandan forces remain in eastern Congo, the more vulnerable Kabila will be to internal challenges.
• Lastly, and as Enough has consistently argued, even a successful operation against the FDLR must be accompanied by a process to deal with the other major root causes of conflict in eastern Congo: the fight for control over lucrative natural resources, access to land, economic and physical security of ethnic minorities (particularly Tutsis), and contentious debates over citizenship and identity.

Events are unfolding rapidly on the ground, and Enough is preparing on a statement with recommendations for policymakers on how to help avoid the situation from spiraling downward. We will release the statement next week, but as a first step the Obama administration should immediately appoint a special envoy to the Great Lakes region. The administration has not yet named its Africa policy team, but the people of eastern Congo cannot wait another day for the United States to get engaged at a high level."( THIS POST IS MORE WORRYING )

In a related post from Reuters:

1 of 1Full Size

By Aaron Gray-Block

THE HAGUE (Reuters) - Congolese militia leader Thomas Lubanga trained child soldiers to kill, pillage and rape, a prosecutor told the International Criminal Court at the start of its first war crimes trial on Monday.

Lubanga, 48, pleaded not guilty on the first day of the historic trial, which opened more than six years after the ICC was set up as the world's first permanent war crimes court.

Lubanga, an ethnic Hema, is accused of enlisting and conscripting children under 15 to his Union of Congolese Patriots (UPC) in Congo's eastern Ituri district to kill rival Lendus in a 1998-2003 war in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

ICC prosecutors say child soldiers recruited by the UPC were involved in hostilities between October 2002 and June 2003, and that some of them were forced to kill, while others lost their lives in combat.

In an opening address to the Hague-based court, chief prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo said Lubanga committed the most serious crimes of concern to the international community -- crimes against children.

"Lubanga's armed group, recruited and trained hundreds of children to kill, pillage and rape. Hundreds of children still suffer the consequences of Lubanga's crimes. They cannot forget what they suffered, what they did, what they saw," he said.

"They cannot forget the beatings they suffered, they cannot forget the terror they felt and the terror they inflicted. They cannot forget the sounds of the machine guns, they cannot forget that they killed. They cannot forget that they raped, that they were raped."

Some of the children were now using drugs, some had become prostitutes, and others were jobless, Moreno-Ocampo said.

He said he intended to demand close to the maximum sentence, which court officials say is life imprisonment.

Moreno-Ocampo showed the court a map indicating where hostilities took place and videos he said showed Lubanga with child soldiers.

"At this stage, our client would like to plead not guilty," Catherine Mabille, lead defence lawyer, told the court.

Dressed in a dark suit and red tie, Lubanga looked impassively ahead as his charges were read aloud to him.

BUNIA LINK-UP

Some 400 people in Congo's eastern town of Bunia -- at the heart of the Hema-Lendu violence -- were watching the trial via video-link, including many UPC supporters, a Human Rights Watch official said.

She said the start of the trial is a signal to the world that there will be accountability for war crimes, but also urged the court to look into officials in Uganda and in Rwanda who armed and supported groups operating on the ground.

More than 30,000 children were recruited during the conflict in Congo, many given marijuana and told they were protected by witchcraft, according to Bukeni Waruzi, the Africa and Middle East coordinator for human rights group Witness.

Lubanga's trial had been due to start in June 2008, but judges postponed because the defence was unable to view some evidence against him.

The matter was resolved in November when prosecutors began releasing documents to the defence that had been provided on condition of confidentiality to protect sources in war zones.

But some procedural measures are still pending.

The three-judge court has allowed 93 victims to take part in the case and give evidence. They can also seek compensation.

Four of the victims are among the 34 witnesses that prosecutor Moreno-Ocampo will call during the trial, which is expected to be completed before the end of the year.

Ethnic violence in the Ituri region between the Hema and Lendu, and clashes between militia groups vying for control of mines and taxation, have killed 60,000( 60,000 ) people since 1999.

Lubanga was handed over to the court in 2006 after Congo referred the case to the ICC prosecutor in March 2004.

The defence will make its opening statement on Tuesday."

In case you want to hear him speak. From the Hub:

DR Congo rebel chief justifies his fight - 21 Nov 08

By: aljazeeraenglish

Posted: Jan 26 09

As the UN agrees to deploys more forces to halt the DR Congo conflict, Laurent Nkunda, the rebel chief, acknowledges partial responsibility for the upheaval in an interview to Al Jazeera's Yvonne Ndege at a secret location in eastern Congo. But insisting that there is "no life, no economy, no administration, no justice", he says "you cannot destroy what is not there".

Kinshasa has probably taken this step under big international pressure. But it is also a bet. If it works out, the war will be over.

From Jeffrey Gettleman in the NY Times:

"KIBUMBA, Congo — On Saturday afternoon, seemingly the entire village of Kibumba lined up alongside the main road and watched a once fearsome rebel army dissolve in front of their eyes.

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Vanessa Vick for The New York Times

Residents of the village of Kibumba in Congo, where on Saturday rebel forces gave up to be absorbed into the army.

Related

A Congolese Rebel Leader Who Once Seemed Untouchable Is Caught (January 24, 2009)

It was raining, and many villagers were wearing swamp boots and thin slickers. They stood with their feet planted in the mud, some chewing chunks of sugarcane, others nibbling on roasted corn. In front of them, dozens of rebel soldiers climbed aboard a cargo truck, tossing their machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades and backpacks in first and then playfully fighting one another for a seat.

“We’re done,” said one rebel, who identified himself as Captain Amiable.

If Kibumba is any indicator, the fierce rebellion in eastern Congo headed by Gen. Laurent Nkunda may be ending with his arrest( GOOD ). Rwandan troops captured General Nkunda along the Congo-Rwanda border on Thursday night.

It was a stunning turn of events, especially because Rwanda used to be one of General Nkunda’s top backers. Two days later, hundreds of his troops agreed to be trucked to collection points to be integrated into the army.

Few ever doubted the charismatic pull General Nkunda had over his men. He was a true believer, with a messianic conviction that he had been put on this earth to protect fellow Tutsis in Congo from being slaughtered as they were in Rwanda in 1994. He was tall and thin, with a commanding presence and hints of elegance.

He had built one of the best-organized, best-trained bush armies in Africa. His soldiers always carried their rifles pointing down and kept their uniforms incongruously spotless, even though they marched through a world of mud.

But all that acclaimed discipline, which had helped the rebels to rout the Congolese government troops just about every time they faced off, seems to have vanished as fast as its leader.

On Saturday, Captain Amiable smelled like a beer bottle. His battle buddy, a young man named Sergeant Kompast, was not much better, with bloodshot eyes and a loaded assault rifle that kept slipping off his shoulder. The two teetered along the road, arm in arm, shouting at passing cars.

They were soon drowned out by a bunch of glassy-eyed rebels singing at the top of their lungs, “We are commandos, we are commandos!” as they were trucked out of town.

Few people in Kibumba seemed sad to see them go.

“Criminals,” one woman muttered.

Several rebels said it was good that General Nkunda had been arrested.

“We always wanted to negotiate,” Captain Amiable said. “But Nkunda was blocking us.”

Peace, however, is far from assured. There are still many other rebel groups haunting the hills of eastern Congo. General Nkunda’s force was thought to number around 5,000 fighters, and many have simply melted back into the bush, possibly to fight on. His former chief of staff, Jean Bosco Ntaganda, a ruthless commander known as the Terminator, is the new rebel figurehead after having defected from General Nkunda.

So far Mr. Ntaganda is playing nice with the Congolese government. Though he has been charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court, he was the one holding court on Saturday. He met with various Congolese officials at a hotel near here, apparently to discuss the details of his newfound sense of cooperation.

As for General Nkunda, the Rwandans holding him remain tight-lipped.

“Nothing has changed,” Maj. Jill Rutaremara, a spokesman for Rwanda’s Defense Forces, said Saturday. “If Congo wants him extradited, there’s a process to go through.”

The Congolese government is urging Rwanda to hand him over to face war crimes and treason charges. But Rwanda may have a hard time doing that.

General Nkunda used to be a Rwandan Army officer, and until recently, top Rwandan officials were suspected of supplying him with weapons and soldiers. The Rwandan government seems to have struck a deal with Congo in which the Rwandans agreed to neutralize General Nkunda and in return Congo would let thousands of Rwandan troops hunt down Hutu militants on Congolese soil.

A joint Congolese-Rwandan force has killed nine Hutu militants in eastern Congo since Friday, Reuters reported."

From Stop The War In North Kivu:

"Wait and see: opinions In Analysis, From the field on January 24, 2009 at 4:59 pm

According to Father Luigi,

Dire que la guerre est finie ou dire que le long calvaire des populations du Kivu est terminé, c’est peut etre trés prematuré. Personne fait rien pour rien. Si les Rwandais ont accepté d’attaquer Nkunda conjointement avec les FARDC, ne l’on pas fait gratuitement. Les propos de Sarkozy c’est le dur prix que la RDC doit payer.

And according to Colette Braeckman (who is more pessimistic),

Les jours à venir verront sans doute un nouveau triomphe de la realpolitik, la morale n’y trouvera pas son compte, ni la lutte contre l’impunité. Mais si la paix enfin se dessine, fragile et minée par les compromis et les compromissions, ces scrupules seront sans doute vite effacés…

There are four thousand Rwandan soldiers in North Kivu according to OCHA , six thousand according to MISNA. FARDC forces are starting their advance .

Kinshasa has probably taken this step under big international pressure. But it is also a bet. If it works out, the war will be over. However, many Congolese consider that the price is too high, even if it works out. If this is the only solution to pacify North Kivu, I wonder if other provinces with a history of secessionist aspirations (i.e Katanga) could see this scenario as a window of opportunity."

I don't know what to think.

The major pressure though (that exercised by the US Department of State, the UK, France and China) does not appear in the media.

From Reuters:

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By John Kanyunyu and Joe Bavier

GOMA, Congo (Reuters) - Rwanda and Congo on Friday announced the arrest in Rwandan territory of Congolese Tutsi rebel leader Laurent Nkunda during a joint military operation against rebels on their Great Lakes border.

Nkunda has led a Tutsi rebellion in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo since 2004 and is wanted for war crimes.

Congo's government said they would seek Nkunda's extradition from Rwanda and that his detention could end the activity of one of the most powerful and feared eastern rebel groups, recently split by a leadership dispute.

Congolese and Rwandan military commanders said Nkunda was detained after he and three battalions of his fighters tried to resist the joint Congolese-Rwandan operation which was launched this week to hunt Rwandan Hutu militiamen operating in Congo.

In the operation, marking unprecedented cooperation between the Great Lakes neighbours after years of mutual suspicion and hostility, more than 3,500 Rwandan troops have crossed the border into Congo.

Wars, rebellions and ethnic violence since 1998 have killed more than 5 million ( 5 MILLION )Congolese, holding back the development of the huge former Belgian colony in central Africa, which is rich in minerals such as copper, cobalt, coltan, gold and uranium.

"Ex-general Laurent Nkunda was arrested on Thursday, January 22 at 2230 hours while he was fleeing on Rwandan territory after he had resisted our troops at Bunagana with three battalions," Congolese and Rwandan military commanders said in a statement.

Rwandan military spokesman Jill Rutaremara said Nkunda was being held at Gisenyi by Rwandan authorities.

A Congolese army colonel, who asked not to be named, said Nkunda and rebels loyal to him had fought against Rwandan and Congolese troops when they arrived on Thursday at Bunagana, a town on the border with Uganda in Congo's North Kivu province.

But a rebel associate of Nkunda, Jean-Desire Muiti, disputed the account of his arrest, saying the rebel leader had gone to Rwanda late on Thursday after being "called for consultations".

Congolese Information Minister Lambert Mende told Reuters Congo would seek Nkunda's extradition.

"There is a Congolese arrest warrant against him. He is Congolese. He committed his crimes in Congo. So it is normal that he would be judged in Congo," Mende said.

He earlier told the BBC that with the arrest, Nkunda's rebellion was "over or ending".

WAR CRIMES

Nkunda's leadership of his Tutsi National Congress for the Defence of the People (CNDP) rebel group had been challenged this year by dissident rebel commanders who last week ended hostilities with the Congolese government.

Human rights groups said they would be watching how Rwanda and Congo dealt with Nkunda. His fighters are accused of mass killings and rapes, and recruitment of child soldiers.

"Nkunda and troops under his command have certainly committed serious atrocities, and he needs to be held to account in a trial that meets fair trial standards," said Anneke Van Woudenberg, senior Congo researcher with Human Rights Watch.

"He must be brought back to Congo and face justice for his acts, because he is responsible for many deaths due to the war he waged," said local Congolese pastor Crispin Kombozi.

The joint Rwandan-Congolese operation to try to disarm Rwandan Hutu FDLR rebels follows heavy international pressure( FINALLY ) for an end to more than a decade of conflict in Congo's east.

Congo had in the past accused Rwanda's government of backing Nkunda, while Rwanda had denounced Congolese army cooperation with the FDLR (Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda).

Many of the FDLR's 6,000 fighters took part in Rwanda's 1994 genocide in which Hutu soldiers and militia slaughtered 800,000 Tutsis and moderate Hutus. The FDLR presence in east Congo haas been widely viewed as a root cause of the violence there.

Late last year, Nkunda, who said his rebels were fighting to defend Congo's Tutsi minority against the FDLR, led his CNDP guerrillas in a big anti-government offensive in North Kivu province which displaced more than a quarter of a million civilians, creating a humanitarian emergency.

The United Nations, which has 17,000-strong peacekeeping force in Congo that has been largely excluded( THEY DO WHAT? ) from the joint Congolese-Rwandan anti-rebel operation, has expressed fears that civilians could suffer if fresh fighting breaks out."

From Stop The War In North Kivu:

"Nkunda arrested In Uncategorized on January 23, 2009 at 7:33 am

All the media confirm that Laurent Nkunda has been arrested by Rwandan armed forces.

Hence it was true: Nkunda´s political fate was in peril during the last months.

The release of the UN Stearns Report and the subsequent known international pressure (remember Netherlands and Sweden´s position) has played a role. The major pressure though (that exercised by the US Department of State, the UK, France and China) does not appear in the media. No public reactions yet by them (will there be any?).

The news stress the idea of recent events as an strictly internal (Congolese- Rwandese) affair. The message is: major international stakeholders are completely aside from all this. ( WHY?)

This is a very hard sell.

Meanwhile, the number of Rwandan soldiers in Congolese soil continues to grow, and the humanitarian community fears more and more for the consequences of the joint military operation starting in North Kivu."

This seems like good news, for now.

Previous foreign occupations of Congo’s mineral-rich east have been justified by hunts for rebels. Is there a danger of history repeating itself?

From Stop The War In North Kivu:

"Stearns on today´s events In Analysis, News on January 20, 2009 at 4:56 pm

“This marks a major turning point in Kinshasa’s attitude toward the conflict in the east. It appears (President Joseph) Kabila’s government has decided to turn on what has been an ally, the FDLR.”

“This marks a serious change in Rwanda’s policy as well. For the first time since 2002, Rwandan troops are on Congolese soil.”

“They will now be working together against the FDLR, while the CNDP (Tutsi rebel group), which in the past has received support from Rwanda, will now join ranks with the Congolese army.

“This strategy hinges on the success of the military operations against the FDLR. These kinds of counter-insurgency operations are very difficult and always carry with them the risk of serious harm to the civilian population.”

“The other risk is that these operations could be protracted and Kinshasa has already gone out on a limb inviting back in what has been traditionally perceived as its biggest enemy.”

Not to miss the following Reuter´s dispatch."

"Now, from David Lewis on Reuters:

Tags: Africa Blog, Congo, AU, CNDP, Congo, FDLR, genocide, goma, Hutu, joseph kabila, kigali, kinshasa, paul kagame, peacekeeping, Rwanda, Tutsi, Uganda, UN

Rwanda sent hundreds of its soldiers into eastern Congo on Tuesday in what the neighbours have described as a joint operation against Hutu rebels who have been at the heart of 15 years of conflict. Details are still somewhat sketchy, with Rwanda saying its soldiers are under Congolese command but Kinshasa saying Kigali’s men have come as observers.

Evidence on the ground suggests something more serious. United Nations peacekeepers and diplomats have said up to 2,000 Rwandan soldiers crossed into Congo. A Reuters reporter saw hundreds of heavily armed troops wearing Rwandan flag patches moving into Congo north of Goma, the capital of North Kivu province. The world’s largest U.N. peacekeeping mission is, for now, being kept out of the loop.( WHAT'S THEIR FUNCTION EXACTLY? )

Foreign soldiers in Congo are nothing new. Rwanda first invaded in 1996. A 1998-2003 war in Congo sucked in six neighbouring armies. But after years of diplomacy and billions of dollars spent on peacekeeping and Congo’s 2006 elections, analysts are frantically trying to work out what is going on. ( TRUE )

The current joint operation stems from an agreement signed in December between Rwanda and Congo to cooperate more closely after weeks of heavy fighting in North Kivu province. Although the fighting was officially between Congolese government forces and Tutsi rebels, most analysts saw it as an escalation of a proxy war between Rwanda and Congo that has continued despite 2003 peace deals.( YES )

U.N. experts have accused Rwanda of supporting the Tutsi CNDP rebels, formed in 2004 out of previous Rwandan-backed movements that fought against the government in Kinshasa. As on many occasions in the past, Congo was, in turn, accused of arming and using Rwandan Hutu FDLR rebels to boost the effectiveness of its fragile and chaotic army.

The fighting underlined the weakness of President Joseph Kabila’s army, which looted and raped civilians as they fled the CNDP. But it also refocused attention on the Hutu rebels, many of whom crossed into Congo when they were routed after taking part in the 1994 genocide of Tutsis and have long since been used by both Rwandan and Congolese Tutsi forces as justification for military operations in the mineral-rich east(NB ).

Rwanda and Congo have frequently agreed to resolve the FDLR problem. With talk of normalising relations, does Tuesday’s intervention by the Rwandan army mark the first concrete step in new a new relationship between the two countries? ( AND THE ANSWER IS? )

How will Kabila sell a Rwandan military intervention in Congo that is likely to be unpopular amongst many ordinary Congolese, who have long-accused Rwanda of entering their country to loot resources rather than remove rebel threats? How will a handful of Rwandans help Congo’s notoriously weak forces disarm the FDLR in 10-15 days after Kigali’s army failed to do the job during several years of occupation?

What is the international community’s role in all this? The U.N. has some 17,000 peacekeepers on the ground but they have largely been kept at a distance. What about the threat of reprisals on civilians? Over 600 people have been killed in recent weeks after another of Congo’s neighbours, Uganda, led an assault on its rebels in a another remote corner of the country.

Previous foreign occupations of Congo’s mineral-rich east have been justified by hunts for rebels. Is there a danger of history repeating itself?"( OF COURSE, BUT WHAT'S THE ALTERNATIVE? )

Can somebody explain to me what the UN soldiers do?

"But, above all: Will this make things better, or worse?"

From Stop The War In North Kivu:

"Our neighbours are here In From the field, News on January 20, 2009 at 3:58 pm

Approximately 2,000 Rwandan soldiers have entered North Kivu this morning through Kibumba. Their deployment is part of an agreement with the government of the DRC to put an end to the presence of FDLR soldiers in the province.

Too many things are happening these days.

As events evolve, I have more and more the feeling of a resource sharing agreement getting real between Rwanda and the DRC. If you can not beat your enemy, join it. Specially if this is the only way you have to receive all the taxes you should be getting for mineral exports. And also if you are under international pressure to find a diplomatic solution. Many Congolese will not be happy with this.

The BBC says that diplomatic and UN sources fear a humanitarian disaster because of a possible lack of military planning and consultation with the international community.

I very much doubt that the key international players have not been consulted. However, the lack of military planning seems clear. I was just talking to someone who came back this afternoon from Rutshuru, and CNDP forces around there were not aware of the Rwandan deployment.

Meanwhile, the CNDP-Nkunda branch has declared their support to the military operation.

A military solution for the FDLR problem has therefore started, and the scenarios are multiple. How long will Rwandan forces remain in the territory? What will be the humanitarian consequences for the people of North Kivu?

But, above all: Will this make things better, or worse?( THE REAL QUESTION )

***

Addendum: CNDP´s taxes have completely stopped. This is great news for the people of Goma, as prices -specially food- will go down in following days.

A rumour circulating in Goma says that Bosco Ntaganda may have received 2,000.000 U$ as part of his agreement. Rumours are rumours. But it would make sense."

"triggered a conflict-driven humanitarian catastrophe that killed an estimated 5.4 million people."

From Reuters:

1 of 1Full Size

By John Kanyunyu

KIBATI, Congo (Reuters) - Rwandan troops crossed into eastern Congo on Tuesday in a joint military operation by the Great Lakes neighbours to disarm Rwandan Hutu rebels seen as a root cause of more than a decade of conflict.( WOW )

While both countries presented the operation as part of internationally-backed efforts to end conflict in Democratic Republic of Congo, analysts said allowing the Rwandan army in posed political risks for Congolese President Joseph Kabila.( TRUE )

The presence of the Rwandan Hutu FDLR fighters, who finance themselves by exploiting illegal mines( NB ) in the mineral-rich east, triggered two previous Rwandan invasions of Congo that led to a wider 1998-2003 conflict. It also helped cause a 2004 rebellion by Congo Tutsi rebels who went on the offensive late last year.

Diplomats and U.N. peacekeepers said that up to 2,000 Rwandan troops entered Congo's eastern North Kivu province on Tuesday under a December joint accord to act against the mostly Hutu Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR).

The FDLR's strength is estimated at around 6,000 fighters, spread across North and South Kivu.

"The operations are beginning. We have invited Rwandan officers with their security contingents for their safety. They are observers ... The operations to disarm the FDLR are planned for a length of 10 to 15 days," Lambert Mende, Congo's information minister and government spokesman, told Reuters.

But the size of the Rwandan deployment appeared to be more than a simple observation mission.

A Reuters reporter saw hundreds of Rwandan troops, wearing Rwandan flag patches on their uniforms and carrying mortars, rocket launchers and AK-47s, moving into Congo in the Kibati area north of the North Kivu provincial capital Goma.

Rwandan military spokeswoman Major Jill Rutaremara told Reuters in Kigali the details of the operation were "secret".

Rwanda's Information Minister, Louise Mushikiwabo, said the Rwandan forces would operate under Congolese command.

"This is a result of recent intense and sincere efforts -- diplomatic, military and other ... to bring peace and stability to the region." he told Reuters by text message.

U.N. peacekeepers also confirmed the Rwandan deployment.

"This morning between 1,500 and 2,000 RDF (Rwanda Defence Forces) crossed the border in the Munigi-Kibati zone," Lieutenant-Colonel Jean-Paul Dietrich, military spokesman for the U.N. force, MONUC, said. MONUC, the biggest U.N. peace force, said it had not been involved in planning the operation.

Congolese army forces were on the move with tanks, armoured personnel carriers and mobile rocket launchers, Dietrich said.

FEARS OF ESCALATION

Analysts said the latest entry of Rwandan troops into Congo, at the same time as a Ugandan-led offensive against Ugandan LRA rebels further north in Orientale, were an acknowledgement by Kabila that he had failed to pacify his country( VERY TRUE ). He had promised to do this after winning 2006 elections.

"Look where we are, two years after elections, the Rwandan army back in Congo and the Ugandans are back in Congo ... and the Congolese get screwed again( SAD BUT TRUE )," one veteran foreign Congo analyst, who asked not be named, said.

The analyst recalled Congo's 1998-2003 war, when Rwanda and Uganda backed rival rebel groups.

"It's a confirmation of what everybody knows -- the DRC army has no control over its own territory( TRUE )," said a foreign diplomat.

The presence in eastern Congo of Rwandan Hutu FDLR rebels, many of whom participated in Rwanda's 1994 genocide, has been at the heart of more than a decade of bloodshed.

The 1998-2003 war sucked in the armies of half a dozen nearby countries, and triggered a conflict-driven humanitarian catastrophe that killed an estimated 5.4 million( 5.4 MILLION ) people.

Rwanda and Congo have agreed on several past occasions to cooperate to tackle the Hutu rebels, but have failed to carry this out amid accusations that ill-disciplined Congolese government forces have sided with the FDLR Hutu fighters.

Fighting flared again in North Kivu last October, when the National Congress for the Defence of the People (CNDP), a Congolese Tutsi rebel group led by renegade General Laurent Nkunda ended a ceasefire and launched an offensive against Goma.

The fighting, which killed hundreds and displaced around 250,000 people, prompted fears of a fresh regional war.

U.N. experts told the Security Council last month that the governments of both Rwanda and Congo had been backing rebel groups in the conflict, and recommended targeted sanctions such as travel bans and freezing of assets against some individuals( ANYTHING ).

Since then diplomatic efforts to achieve a peaceful solution have picked up pace with frequent high-level contacts between Kigali and Kinshasa, in the absence of formal diplomatic ties."

If they actually cooperate, this might be the right course of action to end this nightmare.

"Another 408 people have been kidnapped by the LRA since the outbreak of violence in September last year"

From the UNHCR:

"UNHCR concerned about displaced Congolese and continuing LRA attacks

DUNGU, Democratic Republic of the Congo, January 13 (UNHCR) – The UN refugee agency on Tuesday expressed mounting concern about the plight of more than 100,000 Congolese civilians force to flee their homes to escape attacks by a rebel Ugandan force in the northern province of Orientale.

"We are increasingly concerned about the humanitarian situation and continuing attacks by ... the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA)," said UNHCR spokesman Ron Redmond, adding that the death toll in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) province bordering Uganda and South Sudan is now estimated at 537 people.

"Another 408 people have been kidnapped by the LRA since the outbreak of violence in September last year, including victims abducted in attacks over the past four days," said the spokesman, citing figures gathered by UNHCR staff in the town of Dungu.

Rough estimates of the number of forcibly displaced in this part of the DRC have now surpassed 104,000. Many of these internally displaced people (IDP) are still hiding in the bush, particularly in areas around the town of Faradje, which was heavily hit during the Christmas period. Out of an estimated 37,000 people who escaped from Faradje, some 16,000 have been registered so far in Tadu and surrounding villages south of Faradje. More than 10,000 of them are children.

In the Dungu area, which was attacked by the LRA last September, the local Red Cross has just completed the registration of displaced in the town and 27 nearby villages. Out of 54,777 IDPs registered, more than 27,000 are women and nearly 15,000 are children under the age of five.

The Congolese, Sudanese and Ugandan armed forces began a joint military operation against the LRA in mid-December.

The latest series of LRA attacks targeted villages and settlements south-west of Faradje. The village of Tomati, 57 kilometres south-west of Faradje, was reduced to ashes on Saturday. LRA attacks Friday and Sunday on Sambia, a mining village some 75 km from Faradje, left at least seven people dead.

"Throughout the region, sightings of LRA rebels are causing panic and new displacement. Our staff in Dungu reported this morning that there are considerable, ongoing population movements in the direction of Faradje and areas south of Dungu. In addition, 2,000 people have reportedly arrived in Ezo in neighbouring South Sudan," the spokesman said.

The UN refugee agency is extremely concerned about civilians who are caught in a conflict zone near the borders of the DRC, the Central African Republic and Sudan. According to local health authorities, the population in the Doruma area is about 56,000 people. In the Faradje district, also the scene of frequent clashes over the past few weeks, there are some 350,000 residents.

The displaced population is in dire need of food, shelter, medicine, clothes and other aid items. The area, which by itself poses immense logistical challenges due to the lack of decent roads, remains highly volatile. Safe humanitarian access remains a key challenge for UNHCR and other agencies as they strive to bring assistance.

By Margarida Fawke
In Dungu, Democratic Republic of the Congo"

Add this to the previous post, and you have some idea how bad things are getting in an already dismal situation.

"a serious rift in the C.N.D.P., and it’s clear that it will compromise the Nairobi peace talks.”

The Congo in the NY Times:

"By LYDIA POLGREEN

Published: January 11, 2009

DAKAR, Senegal — Disagreements over tactics and power have split the once seemingly invincible Congolese rebel group that has played havoc across the eastern side of the country over the past year and has brought the weakened government to the edge of collapse.

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Benedicte Kurzen/VII Mentor

Gen. Laurent Nkunda last fall in eastern Congo, where his thriving rebel group has humiliated Congolese troops in the past year.

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Times Topics: Congo

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Lionel Healing/Agence France Presse — Getty Images

Jean Bosco Ntaganda, a rebel known as the Terminator and shown on Sunday near Goma, has split with General Nkunda.

Gen. Laurent Nkunda, the leader of the Tutsi-dominated rebel group known as the C.N.D.P., is fighting off an attempt to topple him by Jean Bosco Ntaganda, his chief of staff, a ruthless fighter known as the Terminator who is wanted by the International Criminal Court in The Hague for war crimes, according to accounts from both camps.( HE'S A WAR CRIMINAL )

The rebel group has humiliated Congolese troops in battle after battle in the past year, growing in momentum and ambition to the point where it has directly threatened the regional capital, Goma. The result has been hundreds of thousands of people displaced, and a serious undermining of the government, the country’s first freely chosen one in four decades.

Although there have been no accounts yet of actual combat between General Nkunda’s and Mr. Ntaganda’s camps, the split is likely to complicate efforts to win peace in the troubled region. Olusegun Obasanjo, the former president of Nigeria, has been shuttling between the Congolese government and General Nkunda’s rebels in their jungle hide-outs as the United Nations envoy to the faltering peace talks aimed at ending the fighting with the government.

Jason Stearns, an independent Congo analyst who recently served on a United Nations panel examining the conflict there, said that it was unlikely that Mr. Ntaganda’s decision to split from General Nkunda came lightly, and that the split would have serious repercussions for faltering peace talks taking place in Nairobi, Kenya.

“Nobody has been able to say where the senior command stands,” he said. “We are all trying to see what will emerge. What is clear is this has produced a serious rift in the C.N.D.P., and it’s clear that it will compromise the Nairobi peace talks.” ( TRUE )

Mr. Ntaganda declared himself the leader of the C.N.D.P. last Monday and claims to have taken a significant portion of the group’s fighters with him. General Nkunda insists that he remains in control and has tried to play down the disagreement. He told Reuters in an interview that Mr. Ntaganda had been “disrespectful” but remained a member of the rebel group, and that a commission of rebel leaders had been sent “to listen to him, to bring him back to his senses.”

The fracture seems to have been building for some time as the two men disagreed over how far the rebellion should go to achieve its aims — and in some ways over what those aims actually were, according to diplomats and analysts in the region. Mr. Ntaganda wanted to push harder and overrun Goma last year, and he told some of the rebellion’s backers that he was disappointed when General Nkunda heeded United Nations demands to hold back, according to human rights investigators.

General Nkunda, meanwhile, was dismayed by the barrage of international criticism that came after a massacre by his troops in November that was led by Mr. Ntaganda, according to a close ally of the general who spoke on condition of anonymity.

At least 150 people were killed in about 24 hours in the town of Kiwanja in early November. A report in The New York Times and an investigation by Human Rights Watch based on witnesses’ accounts found that fighters went door to door, killing mostly unarmed boys and young men, accusing them of being enemy fighters.

The faction loyal to General Nkunda discussed the possibility of handing Mr. Ntaganda over to the International Criminal Court, contacting at least one international organization about how this might be achieved, according to a person at the organization who was briefed on the matter( NOW WE KNOW WHY HE'S DOING THIS. TOO BAD THEY DIDN'T GET HIM. ).

General Nkunda’s group has rung up a series of military victories, routing the Congolese Army in an offensive late last year, reaching the outskirts of Goma and taking several other important towns.

But the dispute between the two most powerful men in an insurgency that has until now seemed unified and unstoppable creates the first cracks in the invincible image General Nkunda has cultivated.( I WAS FOOLED BY NKUNDA'S REMARKS )

It could also offer the government some breathing room for the first time in months, said Alison Des Forges, a senior adviser for Africa at Human Rights Watch.

“If it comes to military conflict, we could potentially see the situation dissolve into even further combat,” she said. “But it also offers an opportunity for Congo’s forces to get themselves together and gives more time to find a political solution while the two factions argue it out.”

General Nkunda and Mr. Ntaganda share similar histories. Both are Congolese Tutsi who fought alongside the Rwandan Tutsi rebels who overthrew Rwanda’s Hutu-led government in the aftermath of the genocide there in 1994. They both found their way back to Congo by fighting in Rwandan- and Ugandan-backed rebel groups there as Congo descended into a broad regional conflict set off by the genocide’s aftermath. Both men have been accused of serious human rights violations( TO ME, NKUNDA IS NOT CLEARLY ANY BETTER. HE'S A BETTER BSer. ), though the International Criminal Court has named only Mr. Ntaganda so far.

But they differ profoundly in both style and tactics. General Nkunda is well educated and a fiery and articulate speaker( BS ARTIST ). He has refused virtually every attempt to settle his differences with the Congolese government, and in the wake of his military triumphs has essentially refused to recognize the legitimacy of the first elected government that Congo has known in more than four decades. But Mr. Ntaganda is much more pragmatic, and in the past few days has accused General Nkunda of blocking peace efforts in eastern Congo.( THIS IS WHAT SURPRISES ME )

Ms. Des Forges said Mr. Ntaganda was “somebody who has made his career out of being a useful military person regardless of the cause.”

“I don’t think he has the kind of aspiration of Nkunda,” she said, “but I think he is someone who can transfer his loyalties and adapt his position depending on his interests.”

What a mess. Did I mention Ethnic Conflict?