Showing posts with label Northern Trust. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Northern Trust. Show all posts

Saturday, April 11, 2009

But the banks are resisting because they would have to book big losses.

TO BE NOTED: From the NY Times:

"
Showdown Seen Between Banks and Regulators

WASHINGTON — As the Obama administration completes its examinations of the nation’s largest banks, industry executives are bracing for fights with the government over repayment of bailout money and forced sales of bad mortgages.

President Obama emerged from a meeting with his senior economic advisers on Friday to say “what you’re starting to see is glimmers of hope across the economy.” But there were also signs of growing tensions between the White House and the nation’s banks over the next phase of the financial rescue.

Some of the healthier banks want to pay back their bailout loans to avoid executive pay and other restrictions that come with the money. But the banks are balking at the hefty premium they agreed to pay when they took the money.

Jamie Dimon, the chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, and two other executives of large banks raised the issue with Mr. Obama and the Treasury secretary, Timothy F. Geithner, at a meeting two weeks ago.

“This is a source of considerable consternation,” said Camden R. Fine, who attended the White House meeting as president of the Independent Community Bankers, a trade group of 5,000 mostly smaller institutions, many of which are complaining about the repayment requirements.

Meanwhile, the Obama administration wants weaker banks to move more quickly to relieve their balance sheets of the toxic assets, the home loans and mortgage bonds that nobody wants to buy right now. But the banks are resisting because they would have to book big losses.

Finally, there is increasing anxiety in the industry that the administration could use the stress tests of the 19 biggest banks, due to be completed in the next three weeks, to insist on management changes, just as it did with General Motors when officials forced the resignation of its chief executive after examining that company’s books.

Senior officials, recognizing that the next few weeks could prove pivotal for both the industry and the bailout effort, are moving ahead with major plans.

“You will be seeing additional actions by the administration,” Mr. Obama said after the meeting Friday, when the officials discussed the bank stress tests and the new $500 billion to $1 trillion plan that will use public subsidies to encourage private investors to buy mortgage assets.

Attending the session were Mr. Geithner; Sheila C. Bair, the head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation; Lawrence H. Summers, the chairman of the National Economic Council; and other top regulators.

The tension between the industry and the administration is rising as the government’s bailout fund is dwindling, putting the administration in a bind. It is all but certain to need to seek more money from Congress, which wants to see results from existing programs first.

The fund is down to its final $134 billion, according to Treasury officials, and is expected to face new requests for money in the coming weeks to aid tottering banks, the auto industry and possibly insurance companies.

“Between now and Memorial Day we’re going to know a whole lot more about the degree of trouble the banks are in,” said Senator Charles E. Schumer, a New York Democrat who is vice chairman of the Joint Economic Committee. “At the same time, we will begin to have a good initial reading as to how well the administration’s programs are working.”

This month, the nation’s largest banks began announcing their latest quarterly earnings. Some, like Wells Fargo, have released results early to trumpet their profitable first quarter — and possibly to give them leverage in coming negotiations with their regulator.

The immediate concern for the administration is how to get the weaker banks to relieve their books of deteriorating mortgages and mortgage-backed securities.

Industry analysts estimate that United States banks alone have more than $1 trillion of such mortgages on their books but have recognized only a small share of the likely losses.

Economists at Goldman Sachs estimated recently that banks were valuing their mortgages at about 91 cents on the dollar, far more than investors are willing to pay for them.

Even though the Treasury Department plans to subsidize the purchases of toxic assets by giving buyers low-cost loans to cover most of their upfront cost, a growing number of analysts warn that many if not most banks will remain reluctant to sell.

“The gap is still very wide,” said Frank Pallotta, a former mortgage trader at Morgan Stanley, now a consultant to institutional investors. “If every bank was forced to sell at the market-clearing price, you’d have only five banks left in the market.”

The stress tests of the banks are aimed at estimating how much each bank would lose if the economic downturn proved even deeper than currently expected.

Government officials do not plan to disclose the results for individual banks but may reveal broad results for the entire industry at the end of the month.

If the test indicates that the losses would leave a bank with too little capital, the bank will have six months to either raise extra money from private investors or get money from the government. Executives at some banks are worried that regulators will start demanding changes in management and strategy, possibly forcing them to merge with stronger institutions.

Treasury officials said they understood that banks had valid reasons for placing higher values on their mortgages than investors, and said they were hoping to avoid major conflicts.

Facing a host of government restrictions — from how much they pay executives to how many foreign citizens they employ — some small banks have returned the bailout money, and some larger ones, including Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Northern Trust, have said they want to do so as quickly as possible.

On Friday, Sun Bancorp of Vineland, N.J., became the sixth bank to exit the program, returning $89.3 million just three months after it received its loan.

Regulators are reluctant to approve the early repayments until banks can show that they have the capital to withstand further erosion in the economy and will not curtail their lending.

Both large and small banks have pressed the Obama administration to make it less costly for them to exit the bailout program by waiving the right to exercise stock warrants the banks had to grant the government in exchange for the loans. At a meeting last month, the chiefs of three of the largest banks separately asked Mr. Obama to direct the Treasury not to exercise the warrants, Mr. Fine said.

Douglas Leech, the founder and chief executive of Centra Bank, a small West Virginia bank that participated in the capital assistance program but returned the money after the government imposed new conditions, said he complained strongly about the Treasury Department’s decision to demand repayment of the warrants. That effectively raised the interest rate he paid on a $15 million loan to an annual rate of about 60 percent, he said.

“What they did is wrong and fundamentally un-American,” he said. “Even though the government told us to take this money to increase our lending, the extra charge meant we had less money to lend. It was the equivalent of a penalty for early withdrawal.”

Stephanie Cutter, a spokeswoman at the Treasury Department, said it did not comment about the participation of specific banks in the plan or their efforts to exit the program."

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Was This Panic Dealmaking By Barclay's?

Today, a fascinating post by Robert Peston on BBC. First, a refresher:

"Wednesday, October 29, 2008

"Barclays non-governmental recapitalisation efforts don’t exactly appear to be thundering forward."

Interesting post on Alphaville about banks not taking bailout money and how they're doing in getting investment:

"To bailout or not to bailout…

Barclays non-governmental recapitalisation efforts don’t exactly appear to be thundering forward. In the US, meanwhile, as observed by footnoted, banks’ are exhibiting some peculiarly similar recap-PR lines:

NorthernTrust put out a press release yesterday to announce its $1.5 billion infusion because it “fully supports the U.S. government’s efforts to strengthen our nation’s financial system.” There’s also this one from Valley National: “Although Valley is a well-capitalized organization, we believe such a program provides an excellent opportunity for healthy strong banks like Valley to participate in and support the recovery of the U.S. economy”. Even relatively small banks seem to be on message, like First Niagara which said in its press release yesterday, “We are supportive of the Treasury Department’s efforts and remain strongly committed to supporting the economy in Upstate New York.”

Banks’ boards, indeed, face quite a tough call when it comes to using government money. The below has been sent to us from Hilary Winter - a partner at Orrick:"

Do read the whole post."

So, Barclays is attempting to weather this turmoil without government largess, but was having a rough time of it. Next:

"Monday, November 3, 2008

"But governments were implicitly underwriting the financial system all along. They still are."

Here's another interesting post on the FT:

"Not exactly a private solution. Indeed, even if Barclays is not owned in some part by the UK government, it will still be guaranteed by it – and that matters.

Last month, the UK government asked banks to fortify themselves against further financial shocks by increasing their capital cushions, in return for which it would offer new guarantees on inter-bank lending. To help the banks to raise new capital, the Treasury offered to buy preference shares, albeit only on onerous terms; some hoped that the banks would seek alternatives. This is what Barclays has done."

The British plan is:

1) Banks must increase capital ( The big problem )

2) Government guarantees inter-bank lending ( The resulting problem )

3) Government buys shares in banks ( Seems reasonable to me. Better deal for taxpayers )

4) Terms of loan to be onerous ( Absolutely necessary )

5) Would prefer private solution ( Absolutely )

So, in the U.K., the terms on the loans from the government were thought to be onerous. Really:

"It is striking that these investors are charging more than the UK government’s punitive rate. Given that sovereign wealth funds’ earlier investment in financial institutions have resulted in heavy paper losses, it is hardly surprising that the Gulf royals have driven a hard bargain.

Ultimately, it is for shareholders to decide whether to back this deal. There can be no doubt Barclays is paying a heavy price for a measure of independence."

Now note this:

"The bank, however, is still not entirely independent. One of the great fictions of recent years was that large banks could be allowed to fail and had no state guarantees. But governments were implicitly underwriting the financial system all along. They still are. Regardless of who owns the shares, the UK Treasury must make sure that its large banks are stable – and it has a duty to intervene if they are not.

The Gulf deal has reduced risk for the UK government; in the event of problems, new shareholders will lose out before the exchequer. But Barclays is much too big to fail, and the government would be forced into a rescue if the bank were seriously to stumble. The government may not be in the boardroom but it must keep a watchful eye."

Absolutely. This fiction has been the main point on this blog since the beginning of this crisis. The guarantees are still there. I've already explained what we can do going forward, but it's at least becoming clear to everyone that these guarantees were in place. It only remains to examine how they factored into this crisis."

So, Barclays found outside investment, even though, as my post claims, their ultimate guarantor is the government. But they paid more for the private deal than the government deal would have cost. Once again, they paid a premium to remain independent. But, did they act prudently in this deal, or rush to get it done to stay out of the government's clutches? You tell me. From Peston:

"Here's what you need to know.

BarclaysWhen Barclays only 19 days ago sold £3bn of these Reserve Capital Instruments (RCIs) to Qatar and Abu Dhabi, it threw in warrants to purchase 1.5bn new Barclays shares at any time in the next five years at a price of 197.775p each.

According to Sandy Chen of Panmure Gordon, each of these warrants is worth around 16p, which would value the lot at just under £250m (and, by the way, some analysts have argued that the warrants are worth a good deal more than this).

They were apparently an important sweetener to persuade Qatar and Abu Dhabi to buy the RCIs. What's more, Qatar and Abu Dhabi were also paid a £60m commission in cash for taking the RCIs.

In other words, Qatar and Abu Dhabi were paid a bit more than £300m for buying £3bn of securities - and these securities pay a stonking 14% rate of interest until June 2019 (many of us would love a bank to pay us that kind of interest).

So, Qatar and Abu Dhabi got a good deal. So what?

"Here's the thing.

Other investors yesterday bought £500m of the RCIs without the inducement of the warrants or the cash commission.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, although Qatar and Abu Dhabi were prepared to release £500m of the warrants for sale to other investors - following complaints from British investors that they should have been offered these in the first place - the Gulf investors didn't give back any of the commission or warrants.

Qatar and Abu Dhabi therefore ended up being paid over £300m for taking even less risk on their investment in Barclays.

It's worked out very nicely for them indeed. Now there's a proven appetite for these RCIs, they could presumably sell the rest on the open market, should that be appealing to them. In which case, the £300m would become pure profit attached to zero investment risk.

So why on earth did Barclays less than three weeks ago feel it had to pay so much money to Qatar and Abu Dhabi, to persuade them to buy these securities?

Well, it points out that market conditions were fraught at the time.

But there was no urgent rush to raise the money. As Barclays told me back then, the Financial Services Authority had given it till early next year to raise the capital it needed.

Arguably therefore Barclays has needlessly given away £300m."

That doesn't sound good.

"Could the board make amends? Well Barclays' four executive directors have volunteered to forego their bonuses.

But they would probably have to do without bonuses for around 10 years to compensate for the shareholder wealth given away in this transaction.

Which means that the decision by the board to offer itself up for re-election may turn out to be more than a symbolic gesture.

In particular, there is likely to be pressure on the chairman, Marcus Agius, to explain why he and the non-executives permitted the deal with Qatar and Abu Dhabi to be transacted on such generous terms."

I should hope that they are called to account. But, I also want to file this one, unless otherwise informed, under panic selling or dealmaking. I simply wonder how much, in retrospect, of this kind of panic will turn up.


Wednesday, October 29, 2008

"Barclays non-governmental recapitalisation efforts don’t exactly appear to be thundering forward."

Interesting post on Alphaville about banks not taking bailout money and how they're doing in getting investment:

"To bailout or not to bailout…

Barclays non-governmental recapitalisation efforts don’t exactly appear to be thundering forward. In the US, meanwhile, as observed by footnoted, banks’ are exhibiting some peculiarly similar recap-PR lines:

NorthernTrust put out a press release yesterday to announce its $1.5 billion infusion because it “fully supports the U.S. government’s efforts to strengthen our nation’s financial system.” There’s also this one from Valley National: “Although Valley is a well-capitalized organization, we believe such a program provides an excellent opportunity for healthy strong banks like Valley to participate in and support the recovery of the U.S. economy”. Even relatively small banks seem to be on message, like First Niagara which said in its press release yesterday, “We are supportive of the Treasury Department’s efforts and remain strongly committed to supporting the economy in Upstate New York.”

Banks’ boards, indeed, face quite a tough call when it comes to using government money. The below has been sent to us from Hilary Winter - a partner at Orrick:"

Do read the whole post.

Here's my comment:

Posted by Don the libertarian Democrat [report]

Maybe the banks that don’t take money from the government should say something like the following:

” We conducted our business in such a way as to not need government money, and are even getting private money in this environment, showing how much we are trusted. And, hey, we won’t lose the taxpayers a lot of money. So invest in us: Don’s Bank: I don’t need no stinking bailout!

I wonder how Casey Mulligan feels about this story?