Showing posts with label Stupidity Defense. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stupidity Defense. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

This theory is quickly debunked by considering the glowing counterexample of Bear Stearns.

From Derivative Dribble:

"
The Art Of The Banking Controversy In Uncategorized on April 20, 2009 at 7:21 am

Also published on the Atlantic Monthly’s Business Channel.

Now that we are well into the depths of a recession, banker-bashing is all the rage. In addition to being fashionable, these “arguments” have an air of credibility about them, given the dire context in which they are made. As a result, the debate over regulating the financial sector is being recontextualized by portraying Wall Street as little more than a vacuous pig-pen. This view is informed by a grand equivocation, which lumps together all of finance under one roof, somewhere on Wall Street, where bankers convene and discuss how they can further redirect the world’s resources towards their pockets. And the shapeless anger that follows from this view has consumed not only the main stream media, but bloggers as well.

Brad Delong takes the view that both compensation and profits in the financial sector are wholly unjustified. Matthew Yglesias agrees. Another even more dubious theory, also espoused by Matthew Yglesias, is that those in finance are morally inept. (You can find Conor Clarke’s response to Yglesias here). Together, Delong and Yglesias employ straw men, false dichotomies, equivocation, conflate coincidence and causation, and in general treat a complex subject with glib answers that suggest the authors have no concern with getting it right, or have just finished reading Schopenhauer’s, “The Art of Controversy.”

Summary Judgment

In a sparsely worded opinion, Justice Delong condemns all of finance, finding the Economist’s piece on the likely pitfalls of blaming the wealthy for the current downturn an unconvincing defense to the charges. In structuring his opinion, Delong provides us with only two avenues through which we may prove our worth:

The rise in [financial sector] profits [as a share of domestic American corporate profits] from 20% to 40% would have been justified had finance produced (a) better corporate governance and thus better management, or (b) more successful diversification and thus a lowered risk-adjusted cost of and a higher risk-adjusted return to capital.

To say that profits can be justified only by satisfying exogenous factors strikes me as bizarre, especially coming from an economist. To say that there are only two such factors is simply ridiculous. There is no mandate which financial institutions must satisfy, other than the law, in order to prove their worth. The fact that Mr. Delong would like to see more emphasis on corporate governance and diversification does not create the presumption that profits earned at financial firms were somehow unjustified. Investors and clients are not in the business of making charitable contributions to financial institutions. If they paid financial institutions for services or products, they believed that they were getting good value in return at the time.

One sensible explanation for the rise in financial sector profits is that investor appetite was voracious during the relevant period. This was due at least in part to an influx of capital available for investment from the Middle East and elsewhere, which was itself due to record commodity prices, and a period of seemingly unbounded asset appreciation, each of which skewed the market’s appreciation for risk. Note that this explanation would not satisfy Delong’s demand for the justification of such profits. That is, Delong suggests that the mere existence of lawfully earned profits which the market elects to create through the demand for goods and services is insufficient. After all that happens, he, or some other economic Tsar, gets to determine which are justifiable and which are not.

Similarly, Yglesias writes:

Could it really be the case that so many people were naive enough to trust their monies to institutions that were only claiming to have brilliant investment models? Well, it seems to me that it could.

If we assume that financial institutions were merely feigning the existence of “brilliant investment models,” whatever that means, are we to simultaneously believe that these institutions were unaware of their inadequacy? After all, to accept Yglesias’ argument is to believe that Wall Street was not drinking its own Kool-Aid, but only selling it to others. This theory is quickly debunked by considering the glowing counterexample of Bear Stearns. Employees up and down the spine of corporate governance were married to Bear in the form equity. When Bear’s equity got wiped out, so did its employees, who held approximately one third of the company’s stock.

Despite Delong’s and Yglesias’ pronouncements to the contrary, the goings-on of Wall Street are not an elaborate ruse fashioned by the well-connected to deplete the world’s “precious bodily fluids.” That said, something has gone disastrously wrong. But indulging in argumentation that amounts to little more than hand waving will not help anyone to understand what happened, and more importantly, what policies should be implemented to prevent it from occurring again."

Me:

“After all, to accept Yglesias’ argument is to believe that Wall Street was not drinking its own Kool-Aid, but only selling it to others. This theory is quickly debunked by considering the glowing counterexample of Bear Stearns. Employees up and down the spine of corporate governance were married to Bear in the form equity. When Bear’s equity got wiped out, so did its employees, who held approximately one third of the company’s stock.”

The above doesn’t follow:

“What responsibility does he take, as chief executive officer, for the failure of Enron?

“I have to take responsibility for anything that happened within its businesses,” says Lay. “But I can’t take responsibility for criminal conduct of somebody inside the company.”

“This is what I call the Elmer Fudd defense — that I went to work every day and was paid $6 million a year and had a Ph.D. in economics — and somehow, despite all of this, I didn’t know anything that was going on. It’s laughable,” says Bill Lerach, a lawyer who sued to stop document shredding by Enron’s accountants. Now, he’s leading an investor lawsuit against the company, its bankers, its accountants and Lay.

“What was he doing every day in his office? Reading comic books? This man was the CEO of the company,” says Lerach. “He had an obligation to be informed about what was going on in that business every day in every way. And he utterly failed to do it.”

And:

“Prosecutors have tacitly conceded the effectiveness of Lay’s use of what is known in legal circles as the “idiot” or “ostrich” defense. The indictment handed down against him was narrowly drawn, consisting of seven counts of fraud and conspiracy, compared with the 35 counts leveled against Skilling and the 98 against former Chief Financial Officer Andrew Fastow, who is set to testify against Lay and Skilling under a plea bargain that limits his prison term to 10 years. Confined almost entirely to Lay’s actions during the last few months of 2001, the indictment accuses him of misrepresenting Enron’s condition as it careered toward insolvency.”

Of course, he was convicted.

As for Bear:

“The disintegration of the funds cost investors $1.6 billion and set in motion a series of cascading collapses, resulting in the write-down of more than $350 billion in losses and the demise of Bear Stearns itself.

“Perhaps the greatest irony yesterday was that these most networked of men, who were tuned into their Blackberries day and night, are being prosecuted through their own incriminating emails to one another.

In its indictment, the government uses email messages confiscated from both their home and work accounts to make the case that Cioffi and Tannin knowingly misled investors about the funds’ impending crackup to save their own jobs and reputations – in Cioffi’s case, going so far as to withdraw $2 million of his money from one of the funds, even as he reassured investors.

“If I can’t [turn the funds around] I’ve effectively washed a 30-year career down the drain,” Cioffi says in a June 9, 2007 email with the collapse imminent, according to the indictment.

The two are the first traders to face criminal charges in connection with the sub-prime mortgage crisis in a case that is likely to be a bellwether of the government’s ability to prosecute those who used highly complex financial transactions. ”

And:

“SEATTLE, April 8, 2008 /PRNewswire/ — Hagens Berman Sobol Shapiro filed a
third complaint today against Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) on behalf of current
and former employees, claiming the company violated ERISA laws concerning the
management of the Employee Stock Ownership Plan (ESOP).
Today’s lawsuit, filed in U.S. District Court in New York by plan
participant Rita Rusin, seeks to represent all employees that invested in the
ESOP from December 14, 2006 until the present.
The lawsuit claims the company’s failure to adequately manage the plan and
its investments resulted in the depletion of hundreds of millions of dollars
in retirement savings and anticipated retirement income for plan participants.
“We’ve received calls from employees looking for help,” said Hagens Berman
managing partner and lead attorney Steve Berman. “They are upset that Bear
Stearns didn’t warn them that the company stock might be in trouble.”
Berman also noted that the firm has received calls from current Bear
Stearns employees, afraid the company could retaliate against them if they
participate in the legal action. “I urge any employee who wants to speak up to
do so without fear,” Berman noted. “There are very strong laws that protect
employees when they come forward on cases such as this.”
Hagens Berman filed its first suit against Bear Stearns on March 24, 2008
after the company announced JPMorgan Chase & Co. was purchasing Bear Stearns
for $2 per share, 90 percent less than the company’s market value the week
prior.”

I don’t accept the Kool-Aid or Stupidity Defense, but all I’m asking for are through investigations into allegations of Fraud, Collusion, Negligence, and Fiduciary Mismanagement. Is that so much to ask for?

donthelibertariandemocrat 21 April 2009

Thursday, April 9, 2009

How could anybody believe that the price of anything could not go down as well as up? That is the nature of a price.

TO BE NOTED: From The American:

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Did They Really Believe House Prices Could Not Go Down?

Thursday, April 9, 2009

A wise saying is, ‘Many things previously considered impossible nevertheless came to pass.’

We had a housing bubble and it was huge. (So did a number of other countries.) That is an indubitable fact. But it needs a theoretical explanation. The inflation of the U.S. housing bubble lasted six years or so. That is long enough for a lot of people to have made a lot of money from it. But simply to babble “greed” is not an explanation, greed being a constant in human affairs.

In an expanding bubble, belief or confidence in the profit potential of the rising price of some favored asset—this time houses and condominiums—seems to be confirmed by success on all sides. While the house prices keep rising, everybody wins—borrowers and lenders, brokers and investors, speculators and flippers, home builders and home buyers, credit-rating agencies and bond salesmen, title companies and appraisers, realtors and municipalities, and, far from least, politicians. The credit performance of mortgage loans is very good, with very low delinquencies, defaults, and losses. More debt seems better. So bubbles are notoriously hard to control.

You can see the bubble in the accompanying graph of the Case-Shiller national house price index. On this measure, U.S. average house prices increased by an enormous 90 percent from early 2000 to the peak in mid-2006. Since then, they have fallen 27 percent from the peak, back to about the level of 2003. This is not so bad if you bought in or before 2003 and did not do a cash-out refinancing, but pretty terrible if you bought in 2006 with 95 percent borrowed money.

Case-Shiller National Home Price Index

We are now two and a half years into the deflation of the housing bubble with accompanying defaults, foreclosures, and massive losses to both lenders and borrowers, as well as home builders, investors, and taxpayers. Note that national average house prices have gotten almost back to their longer-term trend line, also shown on the graph. As gravity pulls a thrown object back down, house prices are coming back to their trend: in retrospect, this hardly seems a surprise.

In popular explanations for the bubble it is said that Americans and Wall Street believed home prices would always go up. But is this true?

How could anybody believe that the price of anything could not go down as well as up? That is the nature of a price.

Indeed, how could anybody believe that the prices of houses do not go both up and down? For that matter, how could anybody believe that the price of anything could not go down as well as up? That is the nature of a price.

Yet, let’s also remember dot-com stocks. Nothing is more obvious than that the prices of stocks go down as well as up. But we also had a dot-com stock bubble. Its deflation was bad, though not nearly as bad as that of the housing bubble.

Edna St. Vincent Millay was talking about physical attraction in the following verses, but they can equally apply to the emotions of investing and borrowing for speculative capital gains:

So subtly is the fume of life designed

To clarify the pulse and cloud the mind.

The speculative pulse is likely to speed up and the mind become especially clouded in crowds. James Grant, that astute and acerbic chronicler of the foibles of financial markets, suggests that “in order to have a really big asset price bubble, a critical mass of human beings is all that’s required.”

But how about the professionals? Did the financial professionals of the mortgage originating and investing markets—or even more important, of the credit rating agencies who were rating mortgage-backed securities—believe house prices could not go down? No, they did not.

Professionals knew very well that painful housing busts had occurred and assumed that they would continue to happen—on a regional basis.

They were well aware that in the last three decades there have been notable housing and mortgage busts, with house prices of formerly hot markets falling, followed by high defaults and losses on mortgage loans. These occurred in Texas and the other “oil patch” states after the implosion of the oil bubble of the 1970s and early 1980s, in Detroit in the industrial recession of the 1980s, in New England after the end of the technology miracle, and in Southern California in the early 1990s.

In fact, the severe “oil patch” default and loss experience became a key stress test the rating agencies used in analyzing mortgage pools. The professionals knew very well that the path of house prices is a key determinant of the credit performance of mortgage loans and the securities made out of them. They knew very well that painful housing busts had occurred and assumed that they would continue to happen—on a regional basis.

But it was thought that this would not, and perhaps could not, happen on a national average basis. The United States is a truly big country, with an even bigger economy, including a great variety of regions and economic characteristics. Oh, people said, national average house prices could go sideways for a number of years, while general inflation reduced them in real terms, but not actually fall in nominal terms. After all, it was commonly argued, they had not since the 1930s.

Yes, even the mortgage finance professionals by and large thought that house prices would not fall on a national basis, let alone by 27 percent. But they did.

A wise saying is, “Many things previously considered impossible nevertheless came to pass.” Then we wonder why we considered them impossible. Now to many the recovery of housing and mortgage markets, the banking system, and the general economy may seem impossible, but that too will come to pass.

Alex J. Pollock is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. He spent 35 years in banking, including twelve years as president and chief executive officer of the Federal Home Loan Bank of Chicago.

FURTHER READING: Pollock recently wrote “Out With the Old Banks, In With the New” for The American, arguing for “the creation of new banks to increase the availability of credit.” He participated in “The Deflating Bubble, Part V: Forecast and Policy Recommendations for the Next Six Months,” an event on the outlook for the economy held at AEI in March."

Thursday, March 12, 2009

I'd like to offer the following links:

From Paul Kedrosky:

"
Readings 03/12/09
By Paul Kedrosky · Thursday, March 12, 2009 · ShareThis
Me:

I'd like to offer the following links:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/12/opinion/12cohan...

Op-Ed Contributor
A Tsunami of Excuses

By WILLIAM D. COHAN
Published: March 11, 2009

Argues against stupidity defense.

http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/11/fina...

"Financial Fraud Is Focus of Attack by Prosecutors
By DAVID SEGAL

Argues against stupidity defense, but also explains why it often works ( here's a hint: everybody was doing it ).

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/11/business/econom...

The Looting of America’s Coffers

By DAVID LEONHARDT
Published: March 10, 2009

Argues against the "They drank the Kool-Aid" defense, and, about those govt guarantees, it turns out that they matter.

These tall tales — which tend to take the form of how their firms were the “victims” of a “once-in-a-lifetime tsunami” that nothing could have prevent

TO BE NOTED: Another attack on the stupidity defense: From the NY Times:

"Op-Ed Contributor
A Tsunami of Excuses

IT’S been a year since Bear Stearns collapsed, kicking off Wall Street’s meltdown, and it’s more than time to debunk the myths that many Wall Street executives have perpetrated about what has happened and why. These tall tales — which tend to take the form of how their firms were the “victims” of a “once-in-a-lifetime tsunami” that nothing could have prevented — not only insult our collective intelligence but also do nothing to restore the confidence in the banking system that these executives’ actions helped to destroy.

Take, for example, the myth that Alan Schwartz, the former chief executive of Bear Stearns, unleashed on the Senate Banking Committee last April after he was asked about what he could have done differently. “I can guarantee you it’s a subject I’ve thought about a lot,” he replied. “Looking backwards and with hindsight, saying, ‘If I’d have known exactly the forces that were coming, what actions could we have taken beforehand to have avoided this situation?’ And I just simply have not been able to come up with anything ... that would have made a difference to the situation that we faced.”

Jimmy Cayne, Mr. Schwartz’s predecessor, never had to testify before Congress. But he told me, with some rare humility, that before he resigned, “there was a period of not seeing the light at the end of the tunnel .... I wasn’t good enough to tell you what was going to happen.”

Yet Dick Fuld, the longtime chief executive of Lehman Brothers, was squarely in the Schwartz camp last October when he told Congress: “I wake up every single night thinking, ‘What could I have done differently?’ What could I have said? What should I have done?’ And I have searched myself every single night. And I come back to this: at the time I made those decisions, I made those decisions with the information I had.”

Harvey Miller, the bankruptcy lawyer who is representing what remains of Lehman, has been working hard to absolve Mr. Fuld. In a brief responding to a motion made by lawyers for the New York State comptroller, who has joined a class-action suit against the company, he wrote, “The comptroller fails to recognize that Lehman was a victim of a financial tsunami that was beyond its control.”

Now, wait just a minute here. Can it possibly be true that veteran Wall Street executives like Messrs. Cayne, Schwartz and Fuld — who were paid an estimated $128 million, $117 million and at least $350 million, respectively, in the five years before their businesses imploded — got all that money but were clueless about the risks they had exposed their firms to in the process?

In fact, although they have not chosen to admit it, many of these top bankers, as well as Stan O’Neal, the former chief executive of Merrill Lynch (who was handed $161.5 million when he “retired” in late 2007) made decision after decision, year after year, that turned their firms into houses of cards.

For instance, even though he had many opportunities to do so, Mr. Cayne never steered Bear Stearns away from an extremely heavy concentration on its hugely profitable fixed-income business. The firm starved its asset management business, its brokerage business and its investment banking business, which were not as profitable as fixed income but would have spread Bear’s risk.

In 2003 Mr. Cayne passed on chances to diversify his firm by buying Pershing, the back office and clearing unit of Credit Suisse First Boston, and Neuberger Berman, a midsize money manager. “Acquisitions were not my forte,” Mr. Cayne told me. As a result, by the end, his top lieutenants stopped even trying to persuade him to diversify.

Mr. Cayne never seriously considered raising the firm’s equity, which we now know was perilously low, nor did he seriously consider selling or merging it. Rather, he deliberately chose to take Bear deeper into the manufacture and sale of all those risky mortgage-backed securities, as well as into the business of doing trades with hedge funds. Why? Simply put, Bear’s board paid him and the other four members of Bear’s executive committee — including Mr. Schwartz and another former chief executive, Alan C. Greenberg — to maximize the firm’s “return on equity” calculation, which is Wall Street lingo for figuring out how much money one can make using as little capital as possible.

This directive encouraged Mr. Cayne to make the firm as profitable as possible — a worthy goal, no doubt — but without raising any more cash or issuing any new stock, as doing either would increase the denominator of the return-on-equity calculation, and thereby lower the bonus pool Mr. Cayne and his executives could split among themselves.

When viewed through this simple prism, it is not the least bit surprising that when Bear Stearns ran into trouble soon after its two hedge funds blew up in June 2007, Mr. Cayne — and later Mr. Schwartz — chose not to raise new equity, even though they could easily have done so back then. So Bear’s balance sheet remained larded with extremely risky assets that the firm had leveraged to the hilt by borrowing cheaply in the overnight financing markets. The lenders of such money have the right to decide each day whether to continue to provide the financing or to cut the borrower off.

At Lehman, the facts and circumstances were somewhat different than those at Bear Stearns — for instance, after Mr. Cayne passed on it, Lehman bought Neuberger Berman, and Lehman had built a bigger investment-banking business over the years than Bear. Yet the outcome was similar.

Like Mr. Cayne, Mr. Fuld had made huge and risky bets on the manufacture and sale of mortgage-backed securities — by underwriting tens of billions of mortgage securities in 2006 alone — and on the acquisition of highly leveraged commercial real estate. Five days before the firm imploded, Mr. Fuld proposed spinning off some $30 billion of these toxic assets still on the firm’s balance sheet into a separate company. But the market hated the idea, and the death spiral began.

Even Goldman Sachs, which appears to have fared better in this crisis than any other large Wall Street firm, was no saint. The firm underwrote some $100 billion of commercial mortgage obligations — putting it among the top 10 underwriters — before it got out of the game in 2006 and then cleaned up by selling these securities short. Basically, Goldman got lucky.

When in the summer of 2007 questions began to be raised about the value of such mortgage-related assets, the overnight lenders began getting increasingly nervous. Eventually, they decided the risks of lending to these firms far outweighed the rewards, and they pulled the plug.

The firms then simply ran out of cash, as everyone lost confidence in them at once and wanted their money back at the same time. Bear Stearns, Lehman and Merrill Lynch all made the classic mistake of borrowing short and lending long and, as one Bear executive told me, that was “game, set, match.”

Could these Wall Street executives have made other, less risky choices? Of course they could have, if they had been motivated by something other than absolute greed. Many smaller firms — including Evercore Partners, Greenhill and Lazard — took one look at those risky securities and decided to steer clear. When I worked at Lazard in the 1990s, people tried to convince the firm’s patriarchs — André Meyer, Michel David-Weill and Felix Rohatyn — that they must expand into riskier lines of business to keep pace with the big boys. The answer was always a firm no.

Even the venerable if obscure Brown Brothers Harriman — the private partnership where Prescott Bush, the father and grandfather of two presidents, made his fortune — has remained consistently profitable since 1818. None of these smaller firms manufactured a single mortgage-backed security — and none has taken a penny of taxpayer money during this crisis.

So enough already with the charade of Wall Street executives pretending not to know what really happened and why. They know precisely why their banks either crashed or are alive only thanks to taxpayer-provided life support. And at least one of them — John Mack, the chief executive of Morgan Stanley — seems willing to admit it. He appears to have undergone a religious conversion of sorts after his firm’s near-death experience.

“The events of the past months have shaken the foundation of our global financial system,” Mr. Mack told Congress in February. “And they’ve made clear the need for profound change to that system. At Morgan Stanley, we’ve dramatically brought down our leverage, increased transparency, reduced our level of risk and made changes to how we pay people.” He continued: “We didn’t do everything right. Far from it. And make no mistake: as the head of this firm, I take responsibility for our performance.”

Well, it’s a start. But there can be no restoration of confidence in the banking system — and therefore no hope for an economic recovery — until Wall Street comes clean. If the executives responsible for what happened won’t step forward on their own, perhaps a subpoena-wielding panel along the lines of the 9/11 commission can be created to administer a little truth serum.