Meltzer says political pressure will prevent Bernanke, 55, and fellow policy makers from withdrawing liquidity quickly enough as the economy recovers.

TO BE NOTED: From Bloomberg:

"Bernanke Bet on Keynes Has Meltzer Seeing 1970s-Style Inflation

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By Rich Miller

April 13 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is siding with John Maynard Keynes against Milton Friedman by flooding the financial system with money.

If history is any guide, says Allan Meltzer, the effort will end in tears. Inflation “will get higher than it was in the 1970s,” says Meltzer, the Fed historian and professor of political economy at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh. At the end of that decade, consumer prices rose at a year-over- year rate of 13.3 percent.

Bernanke’s gamble that the highest jobless rate in 25 years and the most idle factory capacity on record will hold down inflation is straight out of the late British economist Keynes. Should late Nobel-prize-winner Friedman’s dictum that “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon” prove right, the $1 trillion or more in liquidity Bernanke has pumped into the financial system by expanding the Fed’s balance sheet may leave him to cope with surging consumer prices.

So far, investors and economic data both back up the Bernanke-Keynes view. The market in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities as of April 6 indicated long-term inflation expectations of 2.5 percent, below the 2.8 percent average inflation rate of the past 10 years.

Figures to be published April 15 will probably show that the March consumer price index was unchanged from a year earlier, thanks to a steep decline in energy costs, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. In February, the index rose at a year-over-year rate of just 0.2 percent.

Increasing Expectations

Still, the 2.5 percent expectation represents an increase from 2.1 percent at the end of last year. And Meltzer, 81, who has written an 800-page history of the Fed’s first 38 years and is now working on volume two, isn’t alone in seeing a return of sky-high inflation as a result of Bernanke’s policies.

John Brynjolfsson, chief investment officer at hedge fund Armored Wolf in Aliso Viejo, California, says the Fed is still in the early stages of its effort to pump up the economy.

“We’ve got at least nine innings of reflation ahead of us, ultimately ending with probably double-digit inflation,” he said in a Bloomberg Television interview on April 6.

Investors are starting to protect themselves from the risk of faster price increases by buying TIPS, pushing up the return on the securities to 6.1 percent in March, the best performance since the U.S. government introduced them in 1997, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. index data.

A Ballooning Balance Sheet

Behind investors’ caution: a ballooning Fed balance sheet that has climbed $1.2 trillion in the past year to $2.09 trillion and expanded the nation’s money supply. It is poised to increase even further after last month’s Fed decision to buy an additional $1.15 trillion worth of assets, including $300 billion in Treasury securities.

M2, a broad measure of the money supply that includes checking accounts and money-market mutual funds, rose in the last six months at an annual rate of 14 percent. That compares with an average 6.3 percent during the last decade.

Meltzer says political pressure will prevent Bernanke, 55, and fellow policy makers from withdrawing liquidity quickly enough as the economy recovers. That’s similar to the pattern that occurred back in the 1970s, he says. Then-Chairman Arthur Burns allowed excessive money-supply growth because he was unable or unwilling to resist pressure from President Richard Nixon’s White House to hold down unemployment, leading to the “great inflation” of that era, he says.

‘Squandered’ Independence

Now, Bernanke and fellow policy makers have “squandered their independence” by becoming involved in bailouts of financial firms and by taking long-term and illiquid assets onto their balance sheet, Meltzer says. “They don’t have the political ability to control inflation.”

John Ryding, founder of RDQ Economics LLC in New York and a former Fed economist, agrees that the central bank will be slow to soak up all the cash it has injected into the financial system, in part because policy makers will be fixated on still- high unemployment. The rate rose to 8.5 percent in March, compared with 7.2 percent in December.

“They pay lip service to inflation being a monetary phenomenon,” he says. “But they’re too much concerned with the Keynesian explanation of inflation.”

There are signs that the Fed’s stimulus -- combined with the efforts of central banks and governments elsewhere in the world, including China -- is starting to lift some commodity prices. Copper rose to a five-month high and platinum reached a six-month peak on April 9.

Oil Prices

“All that money is going to find a home,” says Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics LLC in Pepper Pike, Ohio. He sees oil prices increasing to “$80, $90, $100 before the end of next year” from $52 a barrel now.

Commodity prices may be more prone to rise as the world economy recovers because tight credit and volatile pricing will discourage investment in new supplies, says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com, in West Chester, Pennsylvania.

Chesapeake Energy Corp. of Oklahoma City, and Houston-based Carrizo Oil & Gas Inc. are among energy producers that are limiting spending and curbing drilling after a collapse in credit markets drove up debt costs.

Some Fed policy makers seem more worried about deflation than they do about inflation. A sustained fall in prices can debilitate the economy by causing consumers and businesses to postpone purchases.

“For some time to come, disinflation, and even deflation, will represent greater risks than inflation,” San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen said in a speech on March 25.

Below Potential

At the root of that concern is substantial and growing slack in the economy, which, according to White House chief economist Christina Romer, is operating 5 percent to 10 percent below potential. That means the economy will have to grow a percentage point above trend -- reckoned by the administration to be about 2.5 percent annually -- for five or more years before the slack is used up.

The Phillips curve -- developed by economist A.W. Phillips using Keynesian concepts -- posits that such excess will reduce inflation as firms stuck with idle capacity cut prices and workers facing layoffs accept smaller wage hikes.

Not everyone at the Fed buys into that argument. Noting that some economists forecast substantial slack will keep inflation low for several years, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said in a March 26 speech that he would be “cautious about relying on this correlation.”

The Fed is “running a laboratory experiment” on what drives inflation: the money supply or the output gap, says Laurence Meyer, a former Fed governor and now vice chairman of St. Louis-based Macroeconomic Advisers

“How it turns out will do a lot to influence the economic debate,” he says, adding that his money is on Bernanke.

To contact the reporter on this story: Rich Miller in Washington o rmiller28@bloomberg.net"

as investors demanded higher yields to lend to the government for longer periods

TO BE NOTED: From Bloomberg:

"Treasuries Little Changed as Fed Readies Purchases of Debt

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By Dakin Campbell and Wes Goodman

April 13 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries were little changed as the Federal Reserve prepared to buy U.S. government securities today and tomorrow in an effort to cut borrowing costs.

Investors seeking safety during the first global recession since World War II increased holdings of Treasury and agency debt to record levels, a survey of fund managers by Ried, Thunberg & Co. shows. Government and central bank reports this week will show U.S. retail sales rose in March, while a drop in factory production and slower inflation indicate the recession isn’t over, according to surveys of economists by Bloomberg.

“We traded off under the weight of supply last week,” said Martin Mitchell, head of government bond trading at the Baltimore unit of Stifel Nicolaus & Co. “Absent supply, the market will tend to drift lower in yield.”

The yield on the 10-year note rose one basis point to 2.93 percent as of 8:15 a.m. in New York, according to BGCantor Market Data. The price of the 2.75 percent security due February 2019 fell 1/32, or $0.31 per $1,000 face amount, to 98 14/32. U.K. trading of Treasuries was closed today for the Easter holiday, the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association said.

Fed Buying

Ten-year yields will be in a range of 2.5 percent to 3 percent through the middle of the year, according to Kei Katayama, who oversees $1.6 billion of non-yen debt in Tokyo as leader of the foreign fixed-income group at Daiwa SB Investments Ltd., part of Japan’s second-biggest investment bank. The figure will fall to 2.75 percent by June 30, according to a Bloomberg survey of banks and securities companies with the most recent forecasts given the heaviest weightings. The yield has averaged 4.24 percent for the past five years.

The central bank plans to buy Treasuries due from March 2011 to April 2012 today and from September 2013 to February 2016 tomorrow, according to its Web site. The Fed has more than doubled the size of its balance sheet to $2.09 trillion in the past year by purchasing financial assets including Treasuries in an effort to spur growth.

Investors increased Treasury and agency holdings to 45 percent of their portfolios, matching the all-time high set in October 2002, according to Ried Thunberg, a research company in Jersey City, New Jersey. Agency debt is comprised mostly of securities sold by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two largest providers of funds for mortgages.

Decline Predicted

U.S. bonds may still fall, the survey showed. An index measuring investors’ outlook for Treasuries through the end of June declined to 43 for the seven days ended April 9 from 44 in the previous week. A reading below 50 means investors expect prices to drop. Ried Thunberg surveyed 25 fund managers controlling $1.35 trillion.

China, the largest holder of U.S. debt outside the nation, should buy more short-maturity U.S. Treasuries than long-term notes, the Oriental Morning Post reported today, citing a former adviser to the People’s Bank of China.

The government should “adjust the maturity structure, and keep asset and currency structures basically unchanged,” Li Yang said in Beijing, the Chinese-language newspaper reported.

Foreign holdings of Treasury bills surged to a record $486.9 billion in January from $207.1 billion a year earlier, according to the Treasury Department. Shorter-maturity bills tend to follow central bank interest rates while bonds are influenced more by inflation.

Yield Curve

The difference between two- and 10-year yields widened to 1.96 percentage points from 1.25 percentage points in December as investors demanded higher yields to lend to the government for longer periods.

Fed purchases have created a Treasury market “bubble” that may keep growing, said Jim Rogers, an investor and author of the book “Hot Commodities.” The Fed, like the Bank of Japan before it, is supporting government debt, he said.

“In Japan, long-term bonds were yielding one half of one percent at one time,” Rogers said on Bloomberg Television in an interview from Singapore, where he lives. “This can go to absurd levels, and bubbles usually do.”

Japan’s 10-year yields, little changed today at 1.46 percent, fell to 0.43 percent in June 2003, the lowest since Bloomberg data tracking the figure began in 1985.

Thirty-year mortgage rates rose to 4.87 percent in the seven days ended April 9 from 4.78 percent the week before, which was the lowest since Freddie Mac, the McLean, Virginia- based mortgage-finance company, began tracking the figure 37 years ago. Rates are 1.97 percentage points more than U.S. 10- year yields, widening from 1.46 percentage points two years ago.

TED Spread

Yields suggest U.S. credit markets haven’t fully recovered after last year’s decline.

The difference between what banks and the Treasury pay to borrow money for three months, the so-called TED spread, narrowed to 95 basis points from 96 basis points on April 10. The spread, which reached 4.64 percentage points in October, was about 36 basis points 24 months ago.

U.S. retail sales rose 0.3 percent in March, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey before the Commerce Department’s report tomorrow. Industrial production dropped 0.9 percent, the 14th decline in the last 15 months, figures from the Fed on April 15 may show, according to a separate Bloomberg survey.

The Treasury Department has ordered General Motors Corp. to prepare for a bankruptcy filing by June 1, the New York Times reported, raising speculation it will default on its bonds. The report cited people with knowledge of the plans.

Cost of Living

Treasuries fell last week as the government sold $59 billion of notes to help fund President Barack Obama’s spending plans. Government securities dropped 1.2 percent in April, extending a 1.4 percent loss in the first quarter that marked the worst start to a year since 1999, according to Merrill Lynch & Co.’s U.S. Treasury Master Index.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s efforts to spur growth may result in a higher cost of living, said Allan Meltzer, the central bank historian and professor of political economy at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh.

Inflation “will get higher than it was in the 1970s,” Meltzer said. At the end of that decade, consumer prices rose at a year-over-year rate of 13.3 percent. Rising costs erode the value of the fixed payments from bonds.

The difference between rates on 10-year notes and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, which reflects the outlook among traders for consumer prices, was little changed at 1.35 percentage points from near zero at the end of 2008. The average for the past five years is 2.25 percentage points.

The U.S. consumer price index probably fell 0.1 percent in March from a year earlier, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg before the Labor Department report on April 15. In February, the index rose at a year-over-year rate of 0.2 percent."