A Somalia roundup. From Reuters:
"MOGADISHU (Reuters) - Fighting between rival Somali Islamist groups and hardline insurgents on Washington's foreign terrorist list killed dozens of people north of the capital Mogadishu on Sunday, witnesses said. An Islamist insurgency has been battling government and Ethiopian troops for the past two years, ever since Addis Ababa sent forces to oust the Islamic Courts Union from Mogadishu.
More than 16,000( 16,000 ) civilians have been killed in the insurgency, a million people have been forced from their homes and more than a third( 1/3 ) of the population depend on aid.
But an estimated 3,000 Ethiopians are now withdrawing and some Islamist factions appear to be turning on al Shabaab fighters, a hardline insurgent group that wants to impose a strict version of Islamic law traditionally shunned by Somalis( THEY DON'T WANT IT. GOOD. ).
Analysts say while the Ethiopian withdrawal could usher in a new chapter of violence, it may also be a window of opportunity to bring some Islamist groups into the political process and form a broad, inclusive government.
Witnesses said more than 20 people, mostly fighters, were killed in Sunday's battles between Hareka al Shabaab al Mujahideen, or the Mujahideen Youth Movement, and another Islamist group in Gurael, a trading town in central Somalia.
Sheikh Abdullahi Abu Yusuf, spokesman for the Islamist group Ahlu Sunna Waljamaca, said its fighters had killed 30 al Shabaab militants and seized most of their weapons.
Resident Ahmed Ali told Reuters by telephone he had seen two dead, including an al Shabaab leader, and said Ahlu Sunna Waljamaca was in control of the town after repulsing an attack.
A doctor at Istarlin hospital in Gurael said it had received 20 wounded on Sunday and more were on their way.
The fighting followed clashes a day earlier between al Shabaab rebels and moderate Islamists in Balad, 30 km (19 miles) north of Mogadishu, on Saturday.
Al Shabaab, which spearheaded attacks last year to become the face of the insurgency, is also battling Ethiopian and government soldiers elsewhere outside the capital.
While the fighting may be a struggle between Islamist groups jostling for position as the Ethiopians go, local militias angry with al Shabaab's acts are reported to be helping.
Washington accuses the group of having close ties to al Qaeda. Al Shabaab has been imposing strict sharia law on the towns it controls in southern Somalia -- banning drinking or films and beheading suspected government collaborators( WAR CRIMES ).
Ahlu Sunna Waljamaca accuses al Shabaab of hunting down and killing its religious leaders and desecrating graves.( THEY ARE AWFUL )
Somalia's interim President Sheikh Aden Madobe said on Saturday that al Shabaab was the biggest threat to stability in the Horn of Africa nation and appealed for international help to build up Somali security forces."
We should hope that al Shabaab does not take full control of Somalia, for the sake of Somalis."
And:"
Which way will Somalia go? Tags:
Africa Blog,
Somalia,
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conflict,
Eritrea,
Ethiopia,
Islamic,
Islamist,
Mogadishu,
peacekeeping,
Sharia,
Somalia,
UN,
violence The withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from Somalia has left a nation beset by conflict for nearly two decades at a crossroads.
Ethiopia invaded to oust Islamists from the capital, but insurgents still control much of southern Somalia and more hardline groups that worry Washington have flourished during the two-year intervention.
The United Nations is unlikely to send peacekeepers to replace the Ethiopians. Africa is struggling to send more troops to help the 3,500 soldiers from Uganda and Burundi protecting key sites in the capital.
Some analysts say sending an international force would be counterproductive anyway as it would simply replace the Ethiopians as the hated foreign invader and maintain support for the most militant insurgents.
But without more African peacekeepers deploying soon, it seems unlikely the small and largely ineffectual existing force will remain with a weak mandate to face attacks from insurgents.
While a power vacuum may result in even more violence, some Western diplomats in the region hope it will spur the feuding Islamist opposition groups to settle their differences and work towards forming a broad-based, inclusive government.( YES )
They also hope the departure of the Ethiopians will deflate the insurgency and marginalise hardline groups imposing a strict version of Islamic law traditionally shunned by many Somalis( PLEASE ).
African diplomats pushing hard for some sort of political reconciliation say there are more and more signs of “war fatigue” among the various camps and clans.
They are consistently upbeat about Somalia’s prospects, even more so since President Abdullahi Yusuf resigned, and are reaching out to some of the hardline Islamist groups.
Western opposition to some hue of Islamist administration in Somalia — precisely what Ethiopia invaded to quash — seems to be waning as diplomats take a more pragmatic approach to the political and military reality on the ground( TRUE ).
Is there any reason for optimism after 17 years of violence?( YES )
(Picture: Somali al-Shabaab insurgents arrive in capital Mogadishu, Decemcer 27, 2008. REUTERS/Omar Faruk)"
And more: By Abdiaziz Hassan
NAIROBI (Reuters) - A group of hardline Islamist fighters on Washington's list of foreign terrorists poses the biggest threat to Somalia and the government needs more support to avoid a crisis, its interim president told Reuters.
Islamist insurgents control much of southern and central Somalia and the government holds only the capital Mogadishu and the seat of parliament, Baidoa. Some 3,000 troops from Ethiopia are withdrawing after propping up the government for two years.
Western diplomats hope the insurgency will fracture when the Ethiopian soldiers finally go, and marginalise the hardline al Shabaab fighters who are imposing a strict version of Islamic law traditionally shunned by Somalis.
Speaking on Saturday in Nairobi, Somali President Sheikh Aden Madobe said the government and moderate Muslim scholars would never let al Shabaab seize power, but without help things could get worse for the Horn of Africa nation.
"Al Shabaab is supported by enemies of peace and doing something that is not Islam. Islam is a religion of peace and stability. It is not a terrorism religion, and al Shabaab is Somalia's biggest threat," Madobe said.( WELL SAID )
The hardline rebel group Hareka al Shabaab al Mujahideen, or the Mujahideen Youth Movement, is fighting Ethiopian and Somali government forces alongside other Islamist groups.
The completion of Ethiopia's pullout could help al Shabaab seize more ground, unless more moderate Islamists turn against them. The United States fears a takeover by al Shabaab and other Islamist militants it sees as linked to al Qaeda.
Madobe, who is Somalia's parliament speaker and interim president since Abdullahi Yusuf quit last month, said Somalia needed more money to build up its security forces.
"Ethiopia has decided to leave and insists on that, and we have not succeeded in forming the troops supposed to take over," he said. "Somalia is tired of chaos."
ELECTION DATE SET
The African Union said in a statement after a summit in Addis Ababa on Saturday that the international community needed to redouble commitments to help get a 10,000-strong Somali force of government and opposition soldiers up and running to support the political process.
The AU has been desperately trying to beef up its existing force of some 3,500 troops from Uganda and Burundi. But despite pledges of extra battalions from those two nations and Nigeria, they have yet to deploy. ( TOO BAD )
Analysts say unless the African Union force is strengthened soon there is a risk those peacekeepers will pull out as well, leaving even more of a security vacuum.
"The survival of this government depends on how its leadership works together, how the Somali people assist it in its task and how the international community supports it," Madobe said, before flying back to Baidoa.
He said the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) would respect the 30-day deadline in a transitional federal charter for selecting a new president.
The AU statement issued later on Saturday said the TFG and the opposition Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia had agreed to hold the election process in Djibouti from January 20-26( GOOD ).
The African Union also said "significant progress" had been made on expanding the parliament to include opposition groups.( GOOD )
Madobe said so far two people had applied for president: Yusuf Azhari, a former envoy to Kenya and adviser to former president Abdullahi Yusuf, and Mohamed Deeq Abdimadar Barqadle, a member of the Somali diaspora who has been living in Sweden."
If the international community focuses on Somalia, there is some hope.
Posts
According to Liddy, this was the plan:
"Mr Liddy pledged to press on with a wide-ranging programme of asset sales aimed at raising funds to repay the $100bn in capital injected by the government.
He said the extension of the duration of the main government loan from two to five years and the cutting of the loan’s value from $85bn to $60bn would ensure AIG did not have to dispose of businesses at fire-sale prices.
“We have more capital so we don’t have to sell good assets in bad markets,” he said. AIG has not announced a single major disposal so far, partly because potential buyers have not been able to get funding."
This Reuters post sums up the problem:
" By Paritosh Bansal
NEW YORK, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc (C.N) may explore further asset sales after divesting its Smith Barney retail brokerage unit to Morgan Stanley (MS.N), but the banking giant is likely to have a tough time finding buyers.
Chief Executive Vikram Pandit is trying to shed hundreds of billions of dollars of assets and reduce risk after Citigroup suffered $20.3 billion of losses in the year ended Sept. 30. The bank is expected to post another loss for the 2008 fourth quarter when it reports results this month.
Citigroup has considered selling its Banamex Mexican banking unit and Primerica Financial Services, people close to the matter have said. The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that CitiFinancial, international retail-brokerage operations and the private-label credit-card businesses may also be put on the block. The bank declined to comment.
But Citigroup may not find it easy to sell other assets, and like insurer American International Group Inc (AIG.N), it could run into problems disposing of units amid the financial crisis, investment bankers said. Few would-be buyers have enough cash, stocks are down, financing is not easily available, and the quality of financial assets is often suspect.
"They may quietly explore what's available. I just don't think that they can do very many deals in the near-term," said Marshall Sonenshine, chairman of New York-based investment bank Sonenshine Partners. "But over the next couple of years, they will sell a lot of those businesses, and so will AIG."
CONSUMER CREDIT
Citigroup tried to sell life insurance unit Primerica over the summer, but its plans were set back as the financial crisis took over.
Selling consumer lending businesses such as private label credit cards and CitiFinancial, which provides loans for home improvement, debt consolidation and tuition, is also likely to prove difficult in an economic downturn as consumers suffer.
In September, General Electric Co (GE.N) shelved plans to sell its $30 billion U.S. private-label credit card business, saying it was a challenging time to find someone who wanted to take responsibility for more than $30 billion of assets.
"Anything that has credit sensitivity to it, like a credit card business in this market -- Citi will be crazy to try to sell something like that," a financial services investment banker said.
"There are no strategic buyers, no financial buyers. There's no leverage," the banker said. "You are going to sell an asset that has consumer credit risk to it? Good luck."
AT WHAT PRICE?
Still, as it faces pressure to put its house in order, Citigroup may want to try, and some of its assets could lure potential buyers. But the bank will then have to deal with the problem of negotiating a good price.
"Someone's going to be interested in them at a certain price -- maybe an unappealing price to Citi's shareholders," another financial services investment banker said. "They may not get the prices they want, but you can sell things( N B )."
In some cases, uncertainty about asset quality can be addressed by a deal's structuring.
The agreement for the sale of Chevy Chase Bank to Capital One Financial Corp (COF.N) has a clause that would have Capital One pay more if the acquired bank's assets perform better than expected.
So questions about the quality of Citigroup's private-label credit card portfolio in a declining economy, for instance, could potentially be addressed by structuring a transaction where payments are made over time, with the amount depending on defaults, the banker said.
"Whether Citigroup will be better off accepting prices today or deferring sales remains to be seen," Sonenshine said. "In both cases, AIG and Citi, we are looking at the slow but inevitable disaggregation of overextended financial services companies that have demonstrated an inability to manage risk.( N B )" (Additional reporting by Dan Wilchins; editing by John Wallace) (For more M&A news and our DealZone blog, go to www.reuters.com/deals) "
Nobody trusts these businesses. They would have to sell these assets at discount prices to get anybody to bite. This plan is a non-starter because nobody will buy, and they won't sell, hoping that the government needs to keep them alive. But what if these losses are real and never come back? What if they're actually getting worse? What if nobody ever trusts them? That's why we can't risk it.