Since the start of 2007, fighting has killed at least 17,700 civilians and driven more than 1 million from their homes

TO BE NOTED: From Reuters:

"Fighting in Mogadishu for second day

Sat May 23, 2009 3:53am EDT

* African Union calls for sanctions on Eritrea, no-fly zone

* Rebel reinforcements expected in capital

* At least 45 people killed on Friday in heavy clashes

(Recasts with fighting, AU call for sanctions on Eritrea)

By Mohamed Ahmed

MOGADISHU, May 23 (Reuters) - Government forces fought hardline Islamist insurgents on Saturday in Somalia's capital for a second day running to try to regain control of the city.

Heavy fighting killed at least 45 people, more than half of them civilians, and wounded nearly 200 on Friday in one of the bloodiest days of combat in Mogadishu in months.

Neighbouring states and Western governments fear Somalia, which has been mired in civil war for 18 years, could become a haven for militants linked to al Qaeda unless the new government under President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed can defeat them.

Residents said there was sporadic gunfire on Saturday but feared the fighting would intensify after reports of rebel reinforcements coming to confront a government offensive.

Islamist insurgents took up arms in 2007 to drive out Ethiopian troops propping up a Western-backed government which failed to wield control much of the Horn of Africa nation.

The Ethiopians withdrew at the start of 2009 and an Islamist president was elected in neighbouring Djibouti in January. But the insurgents have intensified attacks against the new administration and African Union peacekeepers in Mogadishu.

Somalia's government has accused Eritrea of supporting al Shabaab insurgents with planeloads of AK-47 assault rifles, rocket-propelled grenades and other weapons.



SANCTIONS, NO-FLY ZONE

The African Union stepped up pressure on the Horn of Africa nation late on Friday by calling for U.N. Security Council sanctions, a no fly-zone and sea blockade.

"(The United Nations Security Council should) impose sanctions against all those foreign actors, both within and outside the region, especially Eritrea, providing support to the armed groups," the 53-member body said in a statement.

Eritrea's president denies the charge and blames American agents for spreading lies to blacken his government's name.

Since the start of 2007, fighting has killed at least 17,700 civilians and driven more than 1 million from their homes. About 3 million Somalis survive on emergency food aid.

The United Nations refugee agency UNHCR says 49,000 people have fled fighting in Mogadishu in the past two weeks.

Al Shabaab, which Washington says has close ties to al Qaeda, and Islamist guerrilla group Hizbul Islam have been spearheading attacks on the government, allied militia and African Union peacekeepers.

Until Friday, pro-government forces had not looked strong enough to break Shabaab's grip on parts of Mogadishu.

But last week's defection of a veteran warlord with hundreds of fighters under his command may have prompted Ahmed to order the new offensive.

Defence Minister Mohamed Abdi Gandi said on Friday the fighting would go on until the insurgents were beaten.

Experts say pro-government forces will be hard-pushed to extend their reach to distant provinces, increasing the risk of protracted fighting in a country that has known little but violence and anarchy since a dictator was ousted in 1991.

An important figure in any reconciliation would be hardline opposition leader Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, who ran Mogadishu and much of southern Somalia alongside Ahmed in late 2006.

The two Islamists -- Aweys was always considered the more hardline -- split after Ahmed joined the peace process.

"Somalia has no government we recognise," Aweys told Reuters in an interview on Friday. [ID:nLM978588] "We should not be deceived by Westerners like Sharif."

"We shall defeat the government soon, God willing." (Writing by David Clarke; Editing by Richard Williams)"

- Somalia's president condemned on Saturday a call by Osama bin Laden

TO BE NOTED: From Reuters:

"Somali president condemns al Qaeda meddling

28 Mar 2009 14:41:30 GMT

Source: Reuters

MOGADISHU, March 28 (Reuters) - Somalia's president condemned on Saturday a call by Osama bin Laden for Somalis and Muslims around the world to topple the Horn of Africa nation's new government. Al Qaeda's leader urged Somalis last week to rise up against President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, who become the country's first Islamist president when elected in January this year. In an audio tape recording, bin Laden said Ahmed was a surrogate of the group's enemies and warned Somalis not to be taken in by the president's pledge to introduce sharia law. "We are very disappointed with Osama bin Laden's call for fighting in Somalia when we already have a government," Ahmed told reporters in his hilltop presidential palace on Saturday. "Al Qaeda has not taught us religion and they have nothing for us. Now, we have all-inclusive government and hope for lasting peace," Ahmed said. Ahmed was chairman of the Islamic Courts Union that ran Mogadishu in 2006 before being ousted by Ethiopian forces, wary of having an Islamist state for a neighbour. After forming an opposition party in exile, Ahmed joined the peace process last year. He now faces the task of trying to establish a new security force and persuade Islamist fighters to back the government in the interests of peace. Ahmed returned to Somalia on Friday after visiting Burundi, Kenya, Libya, Rwanda, Sudan and Uganda. He said Libya and Sudan were working to bring peace to Somalia after 18 years of war and violence. "Sudan and Libya told us that they were in the process of bringing together the government and the opposition groups to reconcile them," the president said. The main challenge comes from Al Shabaab insurgents, who control swathes of southern and central Somalia. The group says it is fighting to impose its strict version of Islamic law throughout Somalia and to rid the country of foreign invaders. The African Union peacekeeping force in Somalia is made up of troops from Uganda and Burundi. More soldiers were deployed in Mogadishu after Ahmed's visit and he said they would stay in the country until a Somali force could provide security. (Reporting by Abdi Sheikh and Abdi Guled; Editing by David Clarke and Angus MacSwan)"

Rajoelina, a 34-year-old former disc jockey who is now the youngest and newest president in Africa

TO BE NOTED: From Reuters:

"Army-backed leader cements grip in Madagascar

Wed Mar 18, 2009 2:33pm GMT

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By Richard Lough

ANTANANARIVO (Reuters) - Madagascar's new president, Andry Rajoelina, celebrated and consolidated power on Wednesday after being appointed by the Indian Ocean island's military in a move drawing international disapproval.

Rajoelina, a 34-year-old former disc jockey who is now the youngest and newest president in Africa, partied with supporters in the street after meeting his ministers to plan strategy.

His priorities are anti-poverty programmes expected by locals, handling international concern at his ascent to power and controlling some dissent in the armed forces.

"We will bring about the return to a normal life, to security and above all national reconciliation, which is at the heart of democracy," he told several thousand supporters celebrating in the capital Antananarivo's May 13 square.

In a boost to Rajoelina's legitimacy, Madagascar's Constitutional Court issued a statement endorsing the takeover.

He is to be formally sworn in on Saturday.

President Marc Ravalomanana, 59, resigned on Tuesday after most of the military backed his rival, who had led weeks of anti-government strikes and protests.

The unrest killed at least 135 people, devastated the $390 million-a-year tourism sector and worried multinationals with investments in the mining and oil industries.

The outcome was also a slap in the face for the African Union (AU), which has censured recent violent transfers of power that have damaged the continent's reputation with investors.

Nervous of more turmoil, the U.S. embassy ordered non-essential staff and their families to leave Madagascar.

Experts said Western donors' disquiet at the manner of Rajoelina's rise would probably be short-term.

"With so many people below the poverty line I can't see the international community abandoning Madagascar in the long run, and (Rajoelina) knows this," Lydie Boka, of Paris-based risk group StrategiCo, told Reuters.

While the military was crucial in installing the opposition leader, analysts say he also has the backing of exiled former president Didier Ratsiraka and his allies. Some analysts said former colonial ruler France gave him tacit support too.

Ravalomanana's whereabouts were unclear. The opposition had accused him of corruption and of losing touch with the majority of the population who live on less than $2 a day.

There was a heavy military presence at the palace where Ravalomanana capitulated. A Reuters TV witness saw broken windows and furniture, as well as a crowbar lodged in the door of a safe. It was not clear whether departing presidential guards, the army or the public had ransacked the building.

FRENCH CONCERN

According to Malagasy law, the head of parliament's upper house should have taken over after the president's resignation and organised an election within two months on the island of 20 million off Africa's southeastern coast.

Instead, Rajoelina -- who is six years too young to be president under the constitution -- now heads a transitional government which has pledged to hold a poll within two years.

Pierrot Rajaonarivelo, a former deputy premier and close ally of the exiled Ratsiraka, said that was much too long.

"Why and for what reason is he taking 24 months as his starting point?" Rajaonarivelo told Reuters in Paris. "I'm among the people behind him (Rajoelina) but I think as far as his approach is concerned, there's a bit of amateurism there."

France echoed that concern.

"The waiting period of 24 months that has been announced for the organisation of new elections is too long. In this type of exceptional situation, the international community wishes to see that democracy can be expressed as rapidly as possible," the Foreign Ministry said, adding that aid flows would continue.

The AU had demanded the constitution be respected scrupulously. But the fact the army refused to take over on Tuesday, as Ravalomanana had requested, means the AU may not brand it a coup, which would have meant suspending Madagascar.

"The fact the president let go of power offers the international community a legal footing (for relations with the new government) if it is looking for one," local constitutional law expert Jean-Erik Rakotoarisoa told Reuters.

After recent coups in Mauritania and Guinea as well as the killing of Guinea-Bissau's leader, Ravalomanana's fall raises doubts over the durability of democracies elsewhere in Africa.

South African President Kgalema Motlanthe, who is chairman of the SADC regional trade bloc, denounced the change of power.

SADC executive secretary Tomaz Salamao said the bloc had scheduled a meeting in Swaziland on Thursday to discuss how to handle the situation, which he said was sad and unacceptable.

Still, some analysts said the departure of Ravalomanana -- a self-made dairy tycoon -- would at least end the bloodshed for now and soothe the concerns of foreign investors.

"The transitional government will probably not take aim at foreign investors in the extractive industries, in part because it will be desperate for those revenues," said Philippe de Pontet, Middle East and Africa analyst at Eurasia group."

It appeared to be the end of two years of bloody Ethiopian intervention in this chaotic nation.

Every time I think of intervention in a place like Zimbabwe, I have to remind myself of interventions such as this one. From the NY Times:

"Ethiopians Withdraw From Key Bases

By MOHAMED IBRAHIM and JEFFREY GETTLEMAN

MOGADISHU, Somalia — Ethiopian troops pulled out from crucial bases in Mogadishu on Tuesday, leaving a power vacuum that was quickly filled by Islamist fighters who seized their positions.

It appeared to be the end of two years of bloody Ethiopian intervention in this chaotic nation. Hundreds of cheering Somalis lined the streets to watch the dozens of Ethiopian military trucks rumbling out of Mogadishu, Somalia’s bullet-pocked capital.

While hundreds of Ethiopian troops still remained at various bases across the city, Ethiopian commanders promised that all troops would leave the country by Tuesday night.

“I am happy they finally left our neighborhood,” said Fadumo Mohammed Jimale, an 18-year-old whose family had been displaced by intense urban street fighting. “They killed my father.”

The Ethiopian troops stormed into Somalia in 2006 to oust an Islamist movement that briefly controlled much of the country and to help shore up Somalia’s weak transitional government.

It did not go as intended( IT NEVER DOES ). The Ethiopian intervention set off a bitter guerrilla war, killing thousands of civilians and driving nearly one million people out of Mogadishu.

Many Mogadishu neighborhoods are now like ghost towns, while the transitional government’s zone of control has shrunk to a few city blocks in the capital and in Baidoa, a market town where the Parliament meets. And Somalia’s Islamist movement has made a steady comeback, with Islamist factions again controlling much of the country.

The Ethiopian troops lost hundreds of soldiers in Somalia, and on Tuesday an Ethiopian commander bid the country farewell.

“We came to Somalia to help the transitional federal government,” said the commander, Col. Gabre Yohannes. “We paid blood and property for that reason. That effort meant that the young generation of Somalis will get peace.”

Many Western diplomats and other Somalia analysts have warned that once all the Ethiopians are gone, the various Islamist factions will unleash their considerable firepower on one another in a scramble to take over the country. Some of that fighting has already kicked off, with dozens of people killed in the past week in combat between moderate and radical Islamist factions.

On Tuesday, gunmen from one Islamist faction rushed into an old pasta factory in central Mogadishu that the Ethiopians had been using as a base. The Islamists were quick to take credit for the Ethiopian withdrawal.

“We drove the Ethiopians out by means of muscle and bullet,” announced Sheik Yusuf Mohammed Siyad, an Islamist leader. “Today, we got the victory we were expecting. We will restore order in this neighborhood.”

“We are ready to unite with our brothers now, since the enemy is leaving,” he added.

Many Somalis suspect the Ethiopians may stay in the rural parts of Somalia or near the border for some time. Beyond that, there are still more than 3,000 African Union troops in Mogadishu, many hunkered down at the airport and presidential palace. Their job is to protect the transitional government, which is in the process of bringing Islamist leaders into its fold, though it continues to be under withering mortar attacks nearly every day.

American officials, who had supported the Ethiopian intervention, have been pushing to replace the African Union troops with a larger, better-trained United Nations peacekeeping force. So far, though, there is broad reluctance among members of the United Nations to take the lead role in such an operation."

Mohammed Ibrahim reported from Mogadishu, and Jeffrey Gettleman from Nairobi, Kenya."

The answer is reconciliation and compromise, but it won't be easy.

"Islam is a religion of peace and stability. It is not a terrorism religion, and al Shabaab is Somalia's biggest threat,"

A Somalia roundup. From Reuters:

"MOGADISHU (Reuters) - Fighting between rival Somali Islamist groups and hardline insurgents on Washington's foreign terrorist list killed dozens of people north of the capital Mogadishu on Sunday, witnesses said.

An Islamist insurgency has been battling government and Ethiopian troops for the past two years, ever since Addis Ababa sent forces to oust the Islamic Courts Union from Mogadishu.

More than 16,000( 16,000 ) civilians have been killed in the insurgency, a million people have been forced from their homes and more than a third( 1/3 ) of the population depend on aid.

But an estimated 3,000 Ethiopians are now withdrawing and some Islamist factions appear to be turning on al Shabaab fighters, a hardline insurgent group that wants to impose a strict version of Islamic law traditionally shunned by Somalis( THEY DON'T WANT IT. GOOD. ).

Analysts say while the Ethiopian withdrawal could usher in a new chapter of violence, it may also be a window of opportunity to bring some Islamist groups into the political process and form a broad, inclusive government.

Witnesses said more than 20 people, mostly fighters, were killed in Sunday's battles between Hareka al Shabaab al Mujahideen, or the Mujahideen Youth Movement, and another Islamist group in Gurael, a trading town in central Somalia.

Sheikh Abdullahi Abu Yusuf, spokesman for the Islamist group Ahlu Sunna Waljamaca, said its fighters had killed 30 al Shabaab militants and seized most of their weapons.

Resident Ahmed Ali told Reuters by telephone he had seen two dead, including an al Shabaab leader, and said Ahlu Sunna Waljamaca was in control of the town after repulsing an attack.

A doctor at Istarlin hospital in Gurael said it had received 20 wounded on Sunday and more were on their way.

The fighting followed clashes a day earlier between al Shabaab rebels and moderate Islamists in Balad, 30 km (19 miles) north of Mogadishu, on Saturday.

Al Shabaab, which spearheaded attacks last year to become the face of the insurgency, is also battling Ethiopian and government soldiers elsewhere outside the capital.

While the fighting may be a struggle between Islamist groups jostling for position as the Ethiopians go, local militias angry with al Shabaab's acts are reported to be helping.

Washington accuses the group of having close ties to al Qaeda. Al Shabaab has been imposing strict sharia law on the towns it controls in southern Somalia -- banning drinking or films and beheading suspected government collaborators( WAR CRIMES ).

Ahlu Sunna Waljamaca accuses al Shabaab of hunting down and killing its religious leaders and desecrating graves.( THEY ARE AWFUL )

Somalia's interim President Sheikh Aden Madobe said on Saturday that al Shabaab was the biggest threat to stability in the Horn of Africa nation and appealed for international help to build up Somali security forces."

We should hope that al Shabaab does not take full control of Somalia, for the sake of Somalis."

And:

"Which way will Somalia go?

Post a comment (6)

Posted by: David Clarke

Tags: Africa Blog, Somalia, AU, conflict, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Islamic, Islamist, Mogadishu, peacekeeping, Sharia, Somalia, UN, violence

The withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from Somalia has left a nation beset by conflict for nearly two decades at a crossroads.

Ethiopia invaded to oust Islamists from the capital, but insurgents still control much of southern Somalia and more hardline groups that worry Washington have flourished during the two-year intervention.

The United Nations is unlikely to send peacekeepers to replace the Ethiopians. Africa is struggling to send more troops to help the 3,500 soldiers from Uganda and Burundi protecting key sites in the capital.

Some analysts say sending an international force would be counterproductive anyway as it would simply replace the Ethiopians as the hated foreign invader and maintain support for the most militant insurgents.

But without more African peacekeepers deploying soon, it seems unlikely the small and largely ineffectual existing force will remain with a weak mandate to face attacks from insurgents.

While a power vacuum may result in even more violence, some Western diplomats in the region hope it will spur the feuding Islamist opposition groups to settle their differences and work towards forming a broad-based, inclusive government.( YES )

They also hope the departure of the Ethiopians will deflate the insurgency and marginalise hardline groups imposing a strict version of Islamic law traditionally shunned by many Somalis( PLEASE ).

African diplomats pushing hard for some sort of political reconciliation say there are more and more signs of “war fatigue” among the various camps and clans.

They are consistently upbeat about Somalia’s prospects, even more so since President Abdullahi Yusuf resigned, and are reaching out to some of the hardline Islamist groups.

Western opposition to some hue of Islamist administration in Somalia — precisely what Ethiopia invaded to quash — seems to be waning as diplomats take a more pragmatic approach to the political and military reality on the ground( TRUE ).

Is there any reason for optimism after 17 years of violence?( YES )

(Picture: Somali al-Shabaab insurgents arrive in capital Mogadishu, Decemcer 27, 2008. REUTERS/Omar Faruk)"

And more:

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By Abdiaziz Hassan

NAIROBI (Reuters) - A group of hardline Islamist fighters on Washington's list of foreign terrorists poses the biggest threat to Somalia and the government needs more support to avoid a crisis, its interim president told Reuters.

Islamist insurgents control much of southern and central Somalia and the government holds only the capital Mogadishu and the seat of parliament, Baidoa. Some 3,000 troops from Ethiopia are withdrawing after propping up the government for two years.

Western diplomats hope the insurgency will fracture when the Ethiopian soldiers finally go, and marginalise the hardline al Shabaab fighters who are imposing a strict version of Islamic law traditionally shunned by Somalis.

Speaking on Saturday in Nairobi, Somali President Sheikh Aden Madobe said the government and moderate Muslim scholars would never let al Shabaab seize power, but without help things could get worse for the Horn of Africa nation.

"Al Shabaab is supported by enemies of peace and doing something that is not Islam. Islam is a religion of peace and stability. It is not a terrorism religion, and al Shabaab is Somalia's biggest threat," Madobe said.( WELL SAID )

The hardline rebel group Hareka al Shabaab al Mujahideen, or the Mujahideen Youth Movement, is fighting Ethiopian and Somali government forces alongside other Islamist groups.

The completion of Ethiopia's pullout could help al Shabaab seize more ground, unless more moderate Islamists turn against them. The United States fears a takeover by al Shabaab and other Islamist militants it sees as linked to al Qaeda.

Madobe, who is Somalia's parliament speaker and interim president since Abdullahi Yusuf quit last month, said Somalia needed more money to build up its security forces.

"Ethiopia has decided to leave and insists on that, and we have not succeeded in forming the troops supposed to take over," he said. "Somalia is tired of chaos."

ELECTION DATE SET

The African Union said in a statement after a summit in Addis Ababa on Saturday that the international community needed to redouble commitments to help get a 10,000-strong Somali force of government and opposition soldiers up and running to support the political process.

The AU has been desperately trying to beef up its existing force of some 3,500 troops from Uganda and Burundi. But despite pledges of extra battalions from those two nations and Nigeria, they have yet to deploy. ( TOO BAD )

Analysts say unless the African Union force is strengthened soon there is a risk those peacekeepers will pull out as well, leaving even more of a security vacuum.

"The survival of this government depends on how its leadership works together, how the Somali people assist it in its task and how the international community supports it," Madobe said, before flying back to Baidoa.

He said the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) would respect the 30-day deadline in a transitional federal charter for selecting a new president.

The AU statement issued later on Saturday said the TFG and the opposition Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia had agreed to hold the election process in Djibouti from January 20-26( GOOD ).

The African Union also said "significant progress" had been made on expanding the parliament to include opposition groups.( GOOD )

Madobe said so far two people had applied for president: Yusuf Azhari, a former envoy to Kenya and adviser to former president Abdullahi Yusuf, and Mohamed Deeq Abdimadar Barqadle, a member of the Somali diaspora who has been living in Sweden."

If the international community focuses on Somalia, there is some hope.

"We'll only attack those who try to challenge authority, and those who embezzle public resources,"

Checking in on Guinea after the coup:

"By Felix Onuah

ABUJA (Reuters) - The West African regional bloc ECOWAS said on Saturday it was suspending Guinea until the military junta which seized power last month held elections and returned the world's top bauxite exporter to democratic rule.

The rebuke from Guinea's neighbours follows a similar move by the African Union, which suspended the former French colony last month, and calls by major donors including the United States and the European Union for elections as soon as possible.( I AGREE )

"ECOWAS suspends Guinea from all meetings of ECOWAS at heads of state and ministerial levels until constitutional order is restored," ECOWAS Commission President Mohamed Ibn Chambas told a meeting of leaders of the 15-member regional body in Abuja.

But he said ECOWAS would maintain "a permanent and constructive dialogue" with the junta and other stakeholders in Guinea to ensure the quick organisation of democratic polls.

The National Council for Democracy and Development (CNDD) -- a junta led by young army captain Moussa Dadis Camara -- seized power in Guinea on December 23 after the death of autocratic President Lansana Conte, who had ruled since 1984.

It has appointed a civilian transition government and promised elections in 2010.( NOT GOOD ENOUGH )

But Senegalese President Abdoulaye Wade, who endorsed the coup leaders, has suggested polls could be held earlier, while French secretary of state for cooperation Alain Joyandet has said Camara had agreed to hold polls within 12 months.

Ibn Chambas said last month that the junta's original plan for elections in 2010 was "not acceptable" and that a two-year transition period was too long.( YES )

FORMER COMMANDERS RELEASED

The junta released two former senior military commanders it detained after the coup, officials said on Saturday, but it warned older retired officers not to try to seize power.

Former armed forces chief of staff General Diarra Camara, who had initially opposed the December 23 coup, and a former navy chief, Admiral Aly Daffe, were detained several days ago by soldiers on the orders of the ruling junta.

Both men, and a colonel who was also held, were released on Friday, a senior police official and a navy officer, who both asked not be named, told Reuters.

Junta leader Camara addressed a large assembly of military officers and troops on Friday and warned against attempted rebellions in the ranks.

"Among us, among our older members, there are some who still have a thirst for power," Camara told the meeting at Conakry's Alpha Yaya Diallo military base. Helicopters flew overhead and elite troops watched from the rooftops.

The ruling junta, which consists of mostly younger middle-ranking officers, has ordered the retirement of more than 20 older generals. It also named two of its members to head the defence and security ministries.

Guinea's military( A HUMAN RIGHTS PROBLEM ) was a pillar of support for Conte but has staged a series of bloody mutinies over pay and is accused of human rights abuses. Rights groups say soldiers killed dozens of civilians in early 2007 to crush anti-government protests.

A spokesman for the junta, which shortly after the coup made Capt. Camara its president and Guinea's de facto leader, defended the arrests of military officers and some civilians suspected of planning to oppose the coup.

"We'll only attack those who try to challenge authority, and those who embezzle public resources," Demba Fadiga said."

"Mortar shells slammed into a busy market in Mogadishu, the capital, on Tuesday"

From the NY Times, a bad omen:

"Somalia: 10 Die in Market Attack

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Published: December 30, 2008

Mortar shells slammed into a busy market in Mogadishu, the capital, on Tuesday, witnesses said, as the country’s weak government crumbled and the impending pullout of Ethiopian troops raised fears that Islamic insurgents might take over. At least 10 people were killed in the attack, witnesses said. Insurgents attacked bases of government soldiers and African Union peacekeepers, and mortar shells fired in retaliation hit the market, which the insurgents may have been using as a base."

"One tribe, one religion, one language, one culture — but they don’t see what unites them, they only see what divides them"

From the NY Times:

"Somalia’s Fate Still Unclear After Leader Quits

By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN

NAIROBI, Kenya — Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed, the cantankerous president of beleaguered Somalia, resigned Monday. The question now is, will it make a difference?

Could it be the death knell of Somalia’s transitional government, whose zone of control is down to a few city blocks in a country nearly as big as Texas? Or will it be the government’s saving grace?

For weeks, Western diplomats, Somali elders and United Nations officials have been crossing their fingers that Mr. Yusuf, widely blamed for trying to block a peace deal with Somalia’s increasingly powerful Islamist insurgents, would step aside.

Mr. Yusuf, one of Somalia’s first warlords, never seemed able to shake his warlord ways. Western diplomats have accused him of favoring his clan at the expense of all others, enabling corruption and too often trying to solve knotty political problems, which called for a little finesse, with the business end of a machine gun.

Kenyan officials even threatened sanctions against him this month, calling him “an obstacle to peace” and warning that unless he changed tack, he would no longer be welcome in Kenya. That was a serious threat because Mr. Yusuf, who claims to be 74 but is widely believed to be several years older, has gone to Kenya several times for lifesaving medical treatment for an ailing liver.

In stepping down, Mr. Yusuf said he could not unite Somalia’s feuding leaders, news agencies reported, and as soon as he resigned, the United Nations’ top official for Somalia, Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah, said that “a new page of Somalia history is now open.”

But what will be written on it?

The scramble to succeed Mr. Yusuf could set off an ugly clan-based political melee. By contrast, the prime minister and other top Somali officials could give the post to a moderate Islamist leader, who might be the unifying figurehead that Somalia so desperately needs.

Or it may simply be too late because so much of the country has already fallen into the hands of powerful, hard-line Islamists who behead opponents and have, on at least one occasion, stoned to death a teenage girl who said she had been raped.( GOOD LORD )

Rashid Abdi, a Somalia analyst at the International Crisis Group, which tracks conflicts worldwide, said Mr. Yusuf’s resignation was “good news” because “it may create the opportunity to put a more conciliatory figure in charge of the government.”

That figure could be someone like Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed, a well-respected, moderate Islamic cleric who has struggled to walk the tightrope between negotiating with the transitional government and being dismissed as a sellout.

Earlier this year, Sheik Sharif’s faction signed a power-sharing agreement with the transitional government, despite the president’s objections, and many Somalis are hoping the deal will stick.

“If that power-sharing deal is applied, it will help a lot,” said Muhammad Dheere, a pharmacist in Mogadishu, Somalia’s battle-scarred capital. “Then the other problems could finish soon.”

Somalia certainly has a lot of them. Famine is steadily creeping toward millions of people. Pirates off Somalia’s coast have netted countless headlines and as much as $100 million in ransoms. Violence is rising again and finding new forms, with Islamist factions now fighting one another to take over the areas the government no longer controls.

Over the weekend, in two towns, a moderate Islamist group routed the Shabab, one of the nation’s most fearsome and radical Islamist militias. But the Shabab were fighting back fiercely on Monday, and they also took over a United Nations food distribution office, imperiling a critical lifeline.

The thousands of Ethiopian troops who have been in Somalia for two years are threatening to leave any day now. If they do, the transitional government may have no one to protect it from Islamist insurgents, except a relatively small contingent of African Union peacekeepers( LIKE IN THE CONGO? ) and a few ragtag Somali militiamen.

It will not be easy finding someone qualified — and willing — to serve as president, considering all this. Somalia’s transitional government, created four years ago (with Mr. Yusuf at the helm) as a temporary solution until Somalia could hold elections, is carefully balanced on a formula that divides power among Somalia’s four major clans.

One considerable strike against Sheik Sharif is that he is not only from the same clan, but from the same subclan as the prime minister, who is well regarded and not believed to be going anywhere.

Many people expect that the next president could come from the same clan as Mr. Yusuf, to minimize clan friction. The speaker of Parliament will take over the presidency for one month until Parliament elects a new president.

Yet, after nearly 18 years of unbridled anarchy, many Somalis have lost hope.( WHO COULD BLAME THEM? )

“Somalis are a God-forsaken nation,” said Abdirizak Adam Hassan, a Canadian-Somali who used to work with Mr. Yusuf and is now looking for a job. “They are so oblivious to what is happening. One tribe, one religion, one language, one culture — but they don’t see what unites them, they only see what divides them.

“Maybe on the outside, to the international community, the resignation will matter,” he said. “But not on the inside.”

Mohammed Ibrahim contributed reporting from Mogadishu, Somalia."

This is a terribly difficult and unending situation. How often are we encountering that now?