Sharia has become the closest thing to a set of rules governing Somali society and was passed as national law in parliament last week

TO BE NOTED: From the FT:

"President raises hopes for Somalia

By William Wallis

Published: April 27 2009 17:57 | Last updated: April 27 2009 17:57

Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, president of Somalia since January, landed in office with a weak hand and a seemingly impossible task.

Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed in Mogadishu: he says there has been a lack of leadership in his country

He controls only fragments of Somali territory and even these are vulnerable to attack by Islamist militias (once his allies). To extend the writ of the trans­itional government and restore stability and services he must neutralise warlords, insurgents and now pirates responsible for turning Somalia since 1991 into the archetype of state failure. Yet he has few basic tools of state to hand.

Nonetheless, the 44-year-old former schoolteacher from a family of Sufi clerics notched up a breakthrough last week, securing $213m (€162m, £145m) of backing at a donor conference in Brussels both for African peacekeepers and for a new national security force. Hundreds of millions of dollars of humanitarian and reconstruction aid could follow.

The outcome of the conference has raised hopes that for the first time since the mid-1990s, when Mogadishu warlords forced UN peacekeepers into humiliating retreat, there are the makings of a concerted effort to reassemble Somalia’s broken parts.

“There has always been this issue of the international community not being forthcoming enough and not being forthcoming enough at the right time,” Sheikh Ahmed told the Financial Times. “Secondly, there has been a lack of leadership that has been ready on the Somali side to seize the opportunity ... Today we believe these two things have come together,” he said in an interview accompanied by his Oxford-educated foreign minister, Mohamed Abdullahi Omar.

The fresh impetus derives partly from Somali pirates. Their proliferating attacks on a busy trading route have defied a fleet of naval vessels from around the world, pointing up the need to act on land as well as sea.

Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, president of a country that has had 15 governments in the past 18 years, explains why his rule will last longer

It makes little sense, Mr Omar argued, that the pirates can earn as much as $150m a year in ransoms while the government has been unable to raise a fraction of that to curtail them. If that situation is beginning to change, it is partly thanks to budding confidence in Sheikh Ahmed.

His profile is very different from the warlords and politicians associated with 15 prior attempts to create a viable government since 1991. First stirred into opposing Somalia’s myriad profiteers by the kidnapping of one of his students, he rose to prominence as leader of an alliance of sharia courts, the Islamic Courts Union.

ICU militias captured Mogadishu in 2006 and for six months were able to restore order to much of southern Somalia, enforcing at times puritanical forms of Islamic rule. This virtually eliminated piracy.

However, Washington was preoccupied then with alleged links between al-Qaeda and extremists within the ICU and gave the green light to neighbouring Ethiopia (which had its own reasons) to oust them.

Events turned full circle when Ethiopian troops withdrew, their former warlord ally resigned as head of the UN-backed transitional government and Sheikh Ahmed emerged from exile in January as Somalia’s new leader, elected by parliament.

He has brought with him moderate elements of the Islamist resistance movement and is attempting to build further alliances within Somalia’s complex web of clans.

PIRACY GROWS

Somali pirates have demonstrated the growing threat they continue to pose to shipping with two attacks more than 500 miles off Somalia’s coast, writes Robert Wright in London.

On Saturday, the MSC Napoli, a cruise liner operated by Geneva-based Mediterranean Shipping Company with 1,500 people on board, repelled an attack several hundred miles off the Somali coast.

Separately, on Sunday the Yemeni navy fought pirates who had attacked four of the country’s oil tankers at a point where the Gulf of Aden, which separates Yemen from Somalia, is about 700 miles wide.

The attacks highlight how Somalia’s pirates now regularly launch attacks far out of their traditional areas of operation. A large military presence in the Gulf of Aden since the end of last year and seafarers’ increasing knowledge about how to resist attacks had until recent weeks driven down the number of successful pirate operations.

But the government is still opposed by radical al Shabab militias active across southern Somalia with support from foreign jihadists.

Sheikh Ahmed says he is prepared to accommodate any willing party in reconciliation efforts, something that could yet make western donors uncomfortable. His reconstruction plans hinge initially on establishing Islamic sharia, something that is both “practically and psychologically” vital to “bringing people on board for the reconstruction of the state”, he says.

Sharia has become the closest thing to a set of rules governing Somali society and was passed as national law in parliament last week. Sheikh Ahmed wants to build up a national army, police and judiciary to enforce it and take on the pirates and other elements opposed to peace.

“Preparations in terms of the readiness of the public for peace are gathering pace. In parallel, if we are also able to get the security forces on the ground operational, we believe it will be almost a natural process for the rule of law and the administration to reach those parts where they don’t already exist,” he said. “There will come a time when those who act illegally either have to leave or ... give themselves up.”

Judging by the crowds who travelled across Europe to see him in Brussels, he carries significant goodwill from the Somali diaspora. Last month his government raised $1.5m in duties at the Mogadishu port. On Friday it passed a national budget, the first since 1991.

These are small beginnings. But there is a whiff of hope Sheikh Ahmed may succeed, where countless others failed, in converting them to something bigger.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009"

And:
Transcript of FT interview with Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, president of Somalia

Published: April 28 2009 01:37 | Last updated: April 28 2009 01:37

There have been 15 attempts to create a functioning government in Somalia since the overthrow of dictator Siad Barre in 1991. None of them have come close to working. Overrun by warlords and Islamist insurgents, the country is in the grips of another potential famine.

Proliferating acts of piracy on one of the world’s busiest trading routes off the Somali coast have forced up shipping insurance costs and are affecting global commodity markets. But they are also focusing international attention on the need for stability on land as well as sea.

Before Ethiopia invaded in 2006 Sheikh Ahmed was the leader of the Islamic Courts Union, an alliance of Islamic militias that during a six month period came closer than any other body to re-establishing order. In January he returned to Somalia from exile, and was elected by a UN-backed transitional parliament to lead the country out of chaos.

Last week at an international donors conference in Brussels, he won $213m of backing for African peacekeepers and for his plans to build a national security force, raising hopes that finally a concerted effort to put Somalia back together again is under way.

William Wallis, Financial Times Africa editor, interviewed Sheikh Ahmed at his hotel in Brussels after the conference.

Financial Times: What is the significance of today’s events for Somalia?

Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed: What happened today is very important for two reasons. Firstly, there has always been this issue of the international community not being forthcoming enough and not being forthcoming at the right time. Secondly there has been a lack of leadership on the Somali side to seize the opportunity and establish a partnership with the international community. Today we believe these two things have come together.

FT: How do you plan to go about using the goodwill that has been generated at an international level, and the cash that is now coming with it?

SSSA: The funds and the political support need to be translated into actions on the ground first and foremost with regards to security. Security has to be established. Then it is important to translate this security and political will into actions that affect the needs of the public and to help reconstruction, education, and all the elements that give normality to life. The public must feel the change and see the change.

FT: But how will you be able to expand the writ of your government from what appears to be the very small part of Somalia you control?

SSSA: There are already many provinces … where government support and structures are present. Where our administration and reach exists, the delivery of services and justice should be strengthened and reinforced. Where it does not exist yet, these areas we must stretch our reach to.

FT: Will this necessarily involve force?

SSSA: Preparations in terms of the readiness of the public for peace are gathering pace by the day, and are already substantially established. In parallel, if we are also able to get the security forces on the ground and operational and these two forces are able to come together we believe it will be almost a natural process for the rule of law and the administration to reach those parts where they don’t already exist.

FT: How formidable do you consider the forces your government are up against?

SSSA: We believe that in essence there is no logic and no sustainable basis for armed forces opposing the government. The only options open for these opposing forces will be to either come into the reconciliation process either as the government or as opposition. Or, to return to civilian life, into their homes and into normal livelihoods.

FT: They seem pretty determined from the outside and at least a minority of them have backing from another pretty determined bunch [of people] headquartered out of the tribal areas of Pakistan [al-Qaeda].

SSSA: Once the government is strong enough and is fully on the ground there will come a time when those who act illegally either have to leave or will have to give themselves up. That moment will come.

FT: How far are you prepared to accommodate these forces in order to absorb them into the reconciliation process?

SSSA: We are prepared in a major way to accommodate and negotiate but the essential factor is there must be dialogue; there must be negotiation for that to happen.

FT: Are you already talking for example to [radical Islamic cleric] Hassan Dawir Aweys, or some of the leaders of the al Shabab militia?

SSSA: Not directly but many well-intentioned and well meaning Somalis are busy and engaged explaining to them the need for dialogue and peace. From our side they know and we have stated that we are ready for dialogue and negotiation.

FT: What do you make of the arrival in Mogadishu today [after more than two years in exile] of Mr Aweys?

SSSA: I think his return today will remind him that he left at a time when there was conflict and war and show him that today we are rebuilding peace. We believe he will choose to take part and support the peace process and re-establishment of security in the country.

FT: Do you consider him someone who is important in that process?

SSSA: There is no one who is not needed for this process of reconciliation and peace. Everyone is needed.

FT: How signficant is the recent passage in parliament of Sharia law in re-establishing state authority?

SSSA: It is very important for several reasons. One Sharia is a normal part of Muslim life and Muslim culture and tradition. Secondly there were people for whom this was a major factor, necessity, and in passing the bill and putting it through cabinet and parliament this enables us to show goodwill and to take that element out of the conflict and ensure it does not become an obstacle. It is part of the reconciliation process but also bringing people on board for the reconstruction of the state. Both psychologically and practically it is very important.

FT: How quickly can you bring back the court system? Is it something you can do very quickly given your experience at the head of the Islamic Courts Union in 2006?

SSSA: The government is actually very busy with that issue. It will need to absorb and take on experienced and knowledgeable people in that field.

FT: In 2006 the administration you were involved in was very effective in fighting piracy. Is that something you can reproduce now and what was the secret before?

SSSA: This is part and parcel of the security infrastructure and policies that we have. We believe that this will also be effective in tackling that issue successfully.

FT: Some of the countries [US, Ethiopia] that seemed very happy to see the back of you in 2006 when the Ethiopia invaded Somalia are now applauding you. Are these countries you can trust?

SSSA: Without a shadow of doubt we have to look forward and not back."

documents serious human rights violations by the Eritrean government, including arbitrary arrest, torture, appalling detention conditions...

TO BE NOTED: From ReliefWeb:

"Eritrea: Repression creating human rights crisis

Source: Human Rights Watch (HRW)

Date: 16 Apr 2009

Host Countries Should Cease Forced Returns of Eritrean Refugees

(London, April 16, 2009) – Eritrea's extensive detention and torture of its citizens and its policy of prolonged military conscription are creating a human rights crisis and prompting increasing numbers of Eritreans to flee the country, Human Rights Watch said in a report released today.

The 95-page report, "Service for Life: State Repression and Indefinite Conscription in Eritrea," documents serious human rights violations by the Eritrean government, including arbitrary arrest, torture, appalling detention conditions, forced labor, and severe restrictions on freedom of movement, expression, and worship. It also analyzes the difficult situation faced by Eritreans who succeed in escaping to other countries such as Libya, Sudan, Egypt, and Italy.

"Eritrea's government is turning the country into a giant prison," said Georgette Gagnon, Africa director at Human Rights Watch. "Eritrea should immediately account for hundreds of 'disappeared' prisoners and open its jails to independent scrutiny."

Human Rights Watch called on the United States and European Union to coordinate with the UN and the African Union to resolve regional tensions and ensure that development aid to Eritrea is linked to progress on human rights.

The EU recently approved a €122 million assistance package to Eritrea despite concerns that development projects in Eritrea are carried out by conscript or prison labor in violation of international law.

Based on more than 50 interviews with Eritrean victims and eyewitnesses of abuses in three countries, the report describes how the Eritrean government uses a vast apparatus of official and secret detention facilities to incarcerate thousands of Eritreans without charge or trial. Many of the prisoners are detained for their political or religious beliefs, others because they tried to evade the indefinite national service or flee the country.

Torture, cruel and degrading treatment and forced labor are routine for conscripts as well as detainees. Detention conditions are appalling, with detainees typically held in overcrowded cells – sometimes underground – or in shipping containers that reach searing temperatures by day and are freezing at night.

Those who try to flee risk severe punishments and the possibility of being shot while crossing the border. The government also punishes the families of those who escape or desert from national service with exorbitant fines or imprisonment. Despite these severe measures, thousands of Eritreans are trying to escape their country.

Most refugees first flee to neighboring Ethiopia and Sudan, and then travel to Libya, Egypt, and Europe. Hundreds of Eritreans have been forcibly repatriated from Libya, Egypt and Malta in the past few years and have faced detention and torture upon their return.

Because of the risk of mistreatment faced by those who are returned, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees has advised against deporting anyone to Eritrea, including rejected asylum seekers. Human Rights Watch called on all countries hosting Eritrean asylum seekers not to forcibly return them, given the risk of torture.

"Countries receiving Eritrean refugees need to make sure that they get the protection and assistance they need," said Gagnon. "Under no circumstances should Eritreans be returned to Eritrea, where they face almost certain detention and torture simply for having fled."

Eritreans celebrated when the country gained its independence from Ethiopia in 1993 after a bloody 30-year war. But the government of President Isayas Afewerki, who led Eritrea through much of its extraordinary struggle for independence, has steadily restricted democratic freedoms, particularly since a 2001 crackdown on political opposition and media.

Eritrea claims its prolonged mass mobilization is justified by security concerns stemming from a two-year border conflict with Ethiopia that cost tens of thousands of lives from 1998 to 2000. The government often blames the United States, the United Nations, and African states for the current political impasse, contending that they have failed to pressure Ethiopia to implement the border demarcation decision of an independent UN commission, which awarded a disputed area to Eritrea.

Eritrea has had tense relations or military clashes with all of its neighbors at one point or another, and the political stalemate between Eritrea and Ethiopia has contributed to regional instability. Each government has supported armed opposition groups against the other, and Eritrea's support for militant Islamist groups in Somalia has exacerbated the conflict in that country.

"Eritrea's human rights crisis is worsening and making the Horn of Africa ever more volatile," said Gagnon. "The US, European, and other governments need to coordinate their policies on the Horn to defuse regional tensions, and make human rights progress an essential benchmark for engagement with Eritrea."

Selected accounts from Eritrean refugees:

"I sacrificed my life for the prosperity, development and freedom of my country but the reverse is true… we did not spend 65,000 martyrs for this!"

– An elderly man who fought for the Eritrean People's Liberation Front (EPLF) in the liberation struggle

"It's okay to do national service, it's fair to serve one's country but not always. It's not fair when it's indefinite."

– A young man who recently fled national service

"If someone is suspected of escaping then they are tied up – just hands or hands and feet, or ferro [with iron handcuffs]. ... Individuals decide what kind of punishment is given, there's no law. They do not have any crimes but [people are punished because] they hate the military or hate to be a soldier. That is the main reason. Because everyone in Eritrea hates to be in the army."

– A former army officer who explained how those suspected of trying to escape from the army were tortured

"First you do your military training then they hold you forever without your rights. The military leaders can ask you for anything and if you refuse their demands then you can be punished. Almost every woman in the military experiences this kind of problem."

– A female recruit who served as a conscript for 10 years and suffered repeated sexual harassment

"In Dahlak there is no time limit, you are waiting for two things: either someone is coming to transfer you or to kill you. When I left Dahlak I was 44 kilograms. My haemoglobin was nothing. I needed a stick to walk. We were living underground, the temperature was 44nC; it was unbelievable. There is no word to express the inhumanity."

– A former political prisoner detained on Dahlak Island in the Red Sea

"If one of the men escapes, you have to go to his home and find him. If you don't find him you have to capture his family and take them to prison. Since 1998, it's standard to collect a family member if someone flees. The administration gives the order to take family members if the national service member is not around. If you disappear inside Eritrea then the family is put in prison for some time and often then the child will return. If you cross the border, then [your family] pays 50,000 nakfa [US$3,300]. If there's no money then it can be a long time in prison. I know people who are in prison for six months."

– An officer formerly responsible for rounding up national service deserters

For more Human Rights Watch reporting on Eritrea, please visit:

http://www.hrw.org/en/africa/eritrea

© Copyright, Human Rights Watch 350 Fifth Avenue, 34th Floor New York, NY 10118-3299 USA"

«

It appeared to be the end of two years of bloody Ethiopian intervention in this chaotic nation.

Every time I think of intervention in a place like Zimbabwe, I have to remind myself of interventions such as this one. From the NY Times:

"Ethiopians Withdraw From Key Bases

By MOHAMED IBRAHIM and JEFFREY GETTLEMAN

MOGADISHU, Somalia — Ethiopian troops pulled out from crucial bases in Mogadishu on Tuesday, leaving a power vacuum that was quickly filled by Islamist fighters who seized their positions.

It appeared to be the end of two years of bloody Ethiopian intervention in this chaotic nation. Hundreds of cheering Somalis lined the streets to watch the dozens of Ethiopian military trucks rumbling out of Mogadishu, Somalia’s bullet-pocked capital.

While hundreds of Ethiopian troops still remained at various bases across the city, Ethiopian commanders promised that all troops would leave the country by Tuesday night.

“I am happy they finally left our neighborhood,” said Fadumo Mohammed Jimale, an 18-year-old whose family had been displaced by intense urban street fighting. “They killed my father.”

The Ethiopian troops stormed into Somalia in 2006 to oust an Islamist movement that briefly controlled much of the country and to help shore up Somalia’s weak transitional government.

It did not go as intended( IT NEVER DOES ). The Ethiopian intervention set off a bitter guerrilla war, killing thousands of civilians and driving nearly one million people out of Mogadishu.

Many Mogadishu neighborhoods are now like ghost towns, while the transitional government’s zone of control has shrunk to a few city blocks in the capital and in Baidoa, a market town where the Parliament meets. And Somalia’s Islamist movement has made a steady comeback, with Islamist factions again controlling much of the country.

The Ethiopian troops lost hundreds of soldiers in Somalia, and on Tuesday an Ethiopian commander bid the country farewell.

“We came to Somalia to help the transitional federal government,” said the commander, Col. Gabre Yohannes. “We paid blood and property for that reason. That effort meant that the young generation of Somalis will get peace.”

Many Western diplomats and other Somalia analysts have warned that once all the Ethiopians are gone, the various Islamist factions will unleash their considerable firepower on one another in a scramble to take over the country. Some of that fighting has already kicked off, with dozens of people killed in the past week in combat between moderate and radical Islamist factions.

On Tuesday, gunmen from one Islamist faction rushed into an old pasta factory in central Mogadishu that the Ethiopians had been using as a base. The Islamists were quick to take credit for the Ethiopian withdrawal.

“We drove the Ethiopians out by means of muscle and bullet,” announced Sheik Yusuf Mohammed Siyad, an Islamist leader. “Today, we got the victory we were expecting. We will restore order in this neighborhood.”

“We are ready to unite with our brothers now, since the enemy is leaving,” he added.

Many Somalis suspect the Ethiopians may stay in the rural parts of Somalia or near the border for some time. Beyond that, there are still more than 3,000 African Union troops in Mogadishu, many hunkered down at the airport and presidential palace. Their job is to protect the transitional government, which is in the process of bringing Islamist leaders into its fold, though it continues to be under withering mortar attacks nearly every day.

American officials, who had supported the Ethiopian intervention, have been pushing to replace the African Union troops with a larger, better-trained United Nations peacekeeping force. So far, though, there is broad reluctance among members of the United Nations to take the lead role in such an operation."

Mohammed Ibrahim reported from Mogadishu, and Jeffrey Gettleman from Nairobi, Kenya."

The answer is reconciliation and compromise, but it won't be easy.

"killing at least 11 people in fighting between Islamist insurgents and Ethiopian-backed government forces."

Checking in on Somalia. From Reuters:

1 of 1Full Size

By Abdi Sheikh

MOGADISHU (Reuters) - Shells hit a crowded Mogadishu market and nearby residential area on Monday, killing at least 11 people in fighting between Islamist insurgents and Ethiopian-backed government forces.

Medical staff told Reuters they had transported 11 corpses and 16 wounded people from Bakara market and the Gedjael neighbourhood after the insurgents exchanged shells with Somali soldiers and their Ethiopian military allies.

"I saw eight dead people and more than 10 wounded in Bakara market," shopkeeper Osman Aden told Reuters in the shattered, coastal capital of Somalia.

"Shells landed on them as they were taking cover behind a hotel wall. Some of them could not be identified as their flesh was mangled."

Islamists have been battling government and Ethiopian troops for the past two years, since Addis Ababa sent forces to oust the Islamic Courts Union from Mogadishu.

More than 16,000 civilians have been killed in the insurgency, a million people have been forced from their homes, more than a third of the population depend on aid, and large areas of Mogadishu lie empty and destroyed.

With an estimated 3,000 Ethiopians now withdrawing, some Islamist factions appear to be turning on al Shabaab fighters, a hardline insurgent group that wants to impose a strict version of Islamic law traditionally shunned by Somalis.

Witnesses said about 51 people, including civilians and fighters, died in battles at the weekend between al Shabaab and another Islamist group, Ahlu Sunna Waljamaca, as that group took over the central Somali trading town of Gurael.

Analysts say while the Ethiopian withdrawal could usher in a new chapter of violence, it may also be a window of opportunity to bring some Islamist groups into the political process and form a broad, inclusive government.

Somalia has been without effective central rule since 1991."

This is getting worse daily.

"Islam is a religion of peace and stability. It is not a terrorism religion, and al Shabaab is Somalia's biggest threat,"

A Somalia roundup. From Reuters:

"MOGADISHU (Reuters) - Fighting between rival Somali Islamist groups and hardline insurgents on Washington's foreign terrorist list killed dozens of people north of the capital Mogadishu on Sunday, witnesses said.

An Islamist insurgency has been battling government and Ethiopian troops for the past two years, ever since Addis Ababa sent forces to oust the Islamic Courts Union from Mogadishu.

More than 16,000( 16,000 ) civilians have been killed in the insurgency, a million people have been forced from their homes and more than a third( 1/3 ) of the population depend on aid.

But an estimated 3,000 Ethiopians are now withdrawing and some Islamist factions appear to be turning on al Shabaab fighters, a hardline insurgent group that wants to impose a strict version of Islamic law traditionally shunned by Somalis( THEY DON'T WANT IT. GOOD. ).

Analysts say while the Ethiopian withdrawal could usher in a new chapter of violence, it may also be a window of opportunity to bring some Islamist groups into the political process and form a broad, inclusive government.

Witnesses said more than 20 people, mostly fighters, were killed in Sunday's battles between Hareka al Shabaab al Mujahideen, or the Mujahideen Youth Movement, and another Islamist group in Gurael, a trading town in central Somalia.

Sheikh Abdullahi Abu Yusuf, spokesman for the Islamist group Ahlu Sunna Waljamaca, said its fighters had killed 30 al Shabaab militants and seized most of their weapons.

Resident Ahmed Ali told Reuters by telephone he had seen two dead, including an al Shabaab leader, and said Ahlu Sunna Waljamaca was in control of the town after repulsing an attack.

A doctor at Istarlin hospital in Gurael said it had received 20 wounded on Sunday and more were on their way.

The fighting followed clashes a day earlier between al Shabaab rebels and moderate Islamists in Balad, 30 km (19 miles) north of Mogadishu, on Saturday.

Al Shabaab, which spearheaded attacks last year to become the face of the insurgency, is also battling Ethiopian and government soldiers elsewhere outside the capital.

While the fighting may be a struggle between Islamist groups jostling for position as the Ethiopians go, local militias angry with al Shabaab's acts are reported to be helping.

Washington accuses the group of having close ties to al Qaeda. Al Shabaab has been imposing strict sharia law on the towns it controls in southern Somalia -- banning drinking or films and beheading suspected government collaborators( WAR CRIMES ).

Ahlu Sunna Waljamaca accuses al Shabaab of hunting down and killing its religious leaders and desecrating graves.( THEY ARE AWFUL )

Somalia's interim President Sheikh Aden Madobe said on Saturday that al Shabaab was the biggest threat to stability in the Horn of Africa nation and appealed for international help to build up Somali security forces."

We should hope that al Shabaab does not take full control of Somalia, for the sake of Somalis."

And:

"Which way will Somalia go?

Post a comment (6)

Posted by: David Clarke

Tags: Africa Blog, Somalia, AU, conflict, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Islamic, Islamist, Mogadishu, peacekeeping, Sharia, Somalia, UN, violence

The withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from Somalia has left a nation beset by conflict for nearly two decades at a crossroads.

Ethiopia invaded to oust Islamists from the capital, but insurgents still control much of southern Somalia and more hardline groups that worry Washington have flourished during the two-year intervention.

The United Nations is unlikely to send peacekeepers to replace the Ethiopians. Africa is struggling to send more troops to help the 3,500 soldiers from Uganda and Burundi protecting key sites in the capital.

Some analysts say sending an international force would be counterproductive anyway as it would simply replace the Ethiopians as the hated foreign invader and maintain support for the most militant insurgents.

But without more African peacekeepers deploying soon, it seems unlikely the small and largely ineffectual existing force will remain with a weak mandate to face attacks from insurgents.

While a power vacuum may result in even more violence, some Western diplomats in the region hope it will spur the feuding Islamist opposition groups to settle their differences and work towards forming a broad-based, inclusive government.( YES )

They also hope the departure of the Ethiopians will deflate the insurgency and marginalise hardline groups imposing a strict version of Islamic law traditionally shunned by many Somalis( PLEASE ).

African diplomats pushing hard for some sort of political reconciliation say there are more and more signs of “war fatigue” among the various camps and clans.

They are consistently upbeat about Somalia’s prospects, even more so since President Abdullahi Yusuf resigned, and are reaching out to some of the hardline Islamist groups.

Western opposition to some hue of Islamist administration in Somalia — precisely what Ethiopia invaded to quash — seems to be waning as diplomats take a more pragmatic approach to the political and military reality on the ground( TRUE ).

Is there any reason for optimism after 17 years of violence?( YES )

(Picture: Somali al-Shabaab insurgents arrive in capital Mogadishu, Decemcer 27, 2008. REUTERS/Omar Faruk)"

And more:

1 of 1Full Size

By Abdiaziz Hassan

NAIROBI (Reuters) - A group of hardline Islamist fighters on Washington's list of foreign terrorists poses the biggest threat to Somalia and the government needs more support to avoid a crisis, its interim president told Reuters.

Islamist insurgents control much of southern and central Somalia and the government holds only the capital Mogadishu and the seat of parliament, Baidoa. Some 3,000 troops from Ethiopia are withdrawing after propping up the government for two years.

Western diplomats hope the insurgency will fracture when the Ethiopian soldiers finally go, and marginalise the hardline al Shabaab fighters who are imposing a strict version of Islamic law traditionally shunned by Somalis.

Speaking on Saturday in Nairobi, Somali President Sheikh Aden Madobe said the government and moderate Muslim scholars would never let al Shabaab seize power, but without help things could get worse for the Horn of Africa nation.

"Al Shabaab is supported by enemies of peace and doing something that is not Islam. Islam is a religion of peace and stability. It is not a terrorism religion, and al Shabaab is Somalia's biggest threat," Madobe said.( WELL SAID )

The hardline rebel group Hareka al Shabaab al Mujahideen, or the Mujahideen Youth Movement, is fighting Ethiopian and Somali government forces alongside other Islamist groups.

The completion of Ethiopia's pullout could help al Shabaab seize more ground, unless more moderate Islamists turn against them. The United States fears a takeover by al Shabaab and other Islamist militants it sees as linked to al Qaeda.

Madobe, who is Somalia's parliament speaker and interim president since Abdullahi Yusuf quit last month, said Somalia needed more money to build up its security forces.

"Ethiopia has decided to leave and insists on that, and we have not succeeded in forming the troops supposed to take over," he said. "Somalia is tired of chaos."

ELECTION DATE SET

The African Union said in a statement after a summit in Addis Ababa on Saturday that the international community needed to redouble commitments to help get a 10,000-strong Somali force of government and opposition soldiers up and running to support the political process.

The AU has been desperately trying to beef up its existing force of some 3,500 troops from Uganda and Burundi. But despite pledges of extra battalions from those two nations and Nigeria, they have yet to deploy. ( TOO BAD )

Analysts say unless the African Union force is strengthened soon there is a risk those peacekeepers will pull out as well, leaving even more of a security vacuum.

"The survival of this government depends on how its leadership works together, how the Somali people assist it in its task and how the international community supports it," Madobe said, before flying back to Baidoa.

He said the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) would respect the 30-day deadline in a transitional federal charter for selecting a new president.

The AU statement issued later on Saturday said the TFG and the opposition Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia had agreed to hold the election process in Djibouti from January 20-26( GOOD ).

The African Union also said "significant progress" had been made on expanding the parliament to include opposition groups.( GOOD )

Madobe said so far two people had applied for president: Yusuf Azhari, a former envoy to Kenya and adviser to former president Abdullahi Yusuf, and Mohamed Deeq Abdimadar Barqadle, a member of the Somali diaspora who has been living in Sweden."

If the international community focuses on Somalia, there is some hope.

"Laws on land ownership in south Sudan remain vague, and have yet to be clarified in a planned land act"

Ponder this from the FT. I find it distasteful:

"US investor buys Sudanese warlord’s land

By Javier Blas and William Wallis in London

Published: January 9 2009 23:18 | Last updated: January 9 2009 23:18

A US businessman backed by former CIA and state department officials says he has secured a vast tract of fertile land in south Sudan from the family of a notorious warlord, in post-colonial Africa’s biggest private land deal( DOES THE WAR OWN THE LAND, OR SIMPLY CONTROL IT? ).

Philippe Heilberg, a former Wall Street banker and chairman of New York-based Jarch Capital, told the Financial Times he had gained leasehold rights to 400,000 hectares of land – an area the size of Dubai – by taking a majority stake in a company controlled by the son of Paulino Matip.

EDITOR’S CHOICE

Quest to create a new Sudan bread basket - Jan-09

Map: Africa’s farmland grab - Jan-09

Mr Matip fought on both sides in Sudan’s lengthy civil war but became deputy commander of the army in the autonomous southern region after a 2005 peace agreement.

The deal, between Mr Heilberg’s affiliate company in the Virgin Islands and Gabriel Matip, is a striking example of how the recent spike in global commodity food prices has encouraged foreign investors and governments to scramble for control of arable land in Africa, even in its remotest parts.

In contrast to land deals between foreign investors and governments, Mr Heilberg is gambling on a warlord’s continuing control of a region where his militia operated in the civil war between Khartoum and south Sudan.( HOW NICE )

“You have to go to the guns, this is Africa( I'M SURE AFRICANS APPRECIATE THAT ),” Mr Heilberg said by phone from New York. He refused to disclose how much he had paid for the lease.

Jarch Management Group is linked to Jarch Capital, a US investment company that counts on its board former US state department and intelligence officials, including Joseph Wilson, a former ambassador and expert on Africa, who acts as vice-chairman; and Gwyneth Todd, who was an adviser on Middle Eastern and North African affairs at the Pentagon and under former president Bill Clinton at the White House.

Laws on land ownership in south Sudan remain vague, and have yet to be clarified in a planned land act( THAT WOULD BE JUST ONE OF MY CONCERNS ). For this reason, some foreign experts on Sudan as well as officials in the regional government, speaking on condition of anonymity, doubted Mr Heilberg could assert legal rights( HE JUST SAID THAT HE'S COUNTING ON THE WAR LORD AND HIS GUNS ) over such a vast tract of land. The deal is second only in size to the recent lease of 1.3m hectares by South Korea’s Daewoo from the government of Madagascar.

Mr Heilberg is unconcerned. He believes that several African states, Sudan included, but possibly also Nigeria, Ethiopia and Somalia, are likely to break apart in the next few years( HERE HE'S PROBABLY CORRECT. ), and that the political and legal risks he is taking will be amply rewarded.

“If you bet right on the shifting of sovereignty then you are on the ground floor. I am constantly looking at the map and looking if there is any value,” he said, adding that he was also in contact with rebels in Sudan’s western region of Darfur, dissidents in Ethiopia and the government of the breakaway state of Somaliland, among others.( IT DOESN'T SEEM TO MATTER TO HIM HOW THESE PROPERTY RIGHTS ARE ACQUIRED. )

The company was embroiled in a dispute with the south Sudan government over its claims to exploration rights for oil.

Mr Heilberg said Jarch had no expertise in agricultural development but would be seeking joint venture partners to cultivate the land( PR ), which is in one of the remotest parts of Sudan, in a region bordering the Nile river but with no tarred roads.

"an outbreak of violence over a disputed election killed 1,300 people and drove 300,000 from their homes"

From Reuters:

1 of 1Full Size

NAIROBI (Reuters) - Kenya said on Friday it would declare a national emergency over a drought that has left 10 million people needing food aid in East Africa's richest nation.

The arid, northern areas are the worst hit in Kenya by a drought that is causing hardship around the East and Horn of Africa, particularly Somalia and Ethiopia.

"The Government is to declare a National Emergency in regard to the prevailing drought and famine situation in the country that has rendered nearly ten million Kenyans food insecure," said a statement from President Mwai Kibaki's office.

The statement said a food security committee chaired by Kibaki had also resolved to begin importing an additional 5 million bags of maize to cater for a shortfall in Kenya caused largely by the crisis of early 2007, when an outbreak of violence( HOW OFTEN DOES THIS END IN HUNGER OR FAMINE? ) over a disputed election killed 1,300 ( 1300 )people and drove 300,000 from their homes.

"President Kibaki told the food security committee that the entire Government must focus on the urgency of providing food to all Kenyans after the failed rains in the last two seasons and reduced production due to last year's post-election challenges."

Measures would include providing water, famine packages, subsidised fertilisers and seeds, hay for animals, and tractors for farmers, the statement said."

We need to keep track of this to see if Kenyans are receiving enough aid.

"The latest boneheadedness involves a new law that bans any Ethiopian NGO that gets more than 10 percent of its money from abroad."

From the NY Times, Nicholas Kristof on Ethiopia:

"Banning aid groups

By Nicholas Kristof

Ethiopia is doing some important work on health and economic development, and the government is registering real progress in raising living standards. But periodically the government undermines that good work by lashing out in boneheaded ways against dissidents, people in the Ogaden, journalists or others.

The latest boneheadedness involves a new law that bans any Ethiopian NGO that gets more than 10 percent of its money from abroad( AWFUL ). That’ll have a catastrophic effect on Ethiopia’s emerging civil society, the country’s best hope for the future – especially organizations working on gender, human rights and conflict.

One of my favorite groups, for example, is the Ethiopian Women Lawyers Association, which has championed the rights of rural girls. In our forthcoming book, “Half the Sky,” my wife and I recount a case of a teenage girl who got help from EWLA in fighting systematic rape. EWLA will be crippled by this law.

Equality Now is fighting the law and has more information on it. Come on, Ethiopia – surely this isn’t the face you want to show the world!"

Here's the info:

"IMPORTANT: This Women’s Action is current and you are encouraged to send appeals to the authorities listed in the action. For background on particular cases, please see the Women’s Action Archive, which contains information on completed campaigns and earlier versions of updates.

Update: Women's Action 22.5
December 2008

Ethiopia: Proposed New Law Threatens to Shut Down Non-Governmental Organizations

In March 2002, Equality Now partnered with the Ethiopian Women Lawyers Association (EWLA) in the campaign to outlaw bride abduction in Ethiopia, adding an international overlay to the advocacy EWLA carries out on the ground. Our Women’s Action highlighted the case of Woineshet Zebene Negash who in 2001 at the age of 13 was abducted and raped by Aberew Jemma Negussie in the south eastern town of Abadjema in the Guna Woreda district where she lived with her mother and grandparents. Two days later she was rescued, and Aberew Jemma Negussie was arrested. After he was released on bail, he abducted Woineshet again and held her for more than a month until she managed to escape, but only after he had forced her to sign a marriage certificate. At that time the law in Ethiopia permitted abductors and rapists to escape punishment if they married their victims. Social pressures often result in rape victims “consenting” to such marriages. Woineshet, however, with the support of her father, refused to marry her abductor and rapist.

Unusually, the authorities pursued a case against Aberew Jemma Negussie and his accomplices who were duly sentenced in 2003. On appeal, however, without notice to Woineshet or her counsel, all were released with the judge suggesting, based on no referenced evidence and despite her young age that Woineshet had consented to sex with Aberew Jemma Negussie. Even the prosecutor recommended overturn of the previous guilty verdict and did not object to the defendants being set free. EWLA, which had been providing Woineshet with legal assistance, petitioned for a further appeal to address the injustice of the appeal court ruling. An appeal was allowed and the case was heard on 4 December 2004 by the Oromia Supreme Court sitting in Addis Ababa. The Court ruled there were not sufficient grounds to reconsider the case, and it dismissed the appeal. All further appeals were rejected on similar grounds and all domestic legal recourse was therefore closed to Woineshet.

On 9 May 2005 after several years’ deliberation a new Penal Code came into effect in Ethiopia, which inter alia removed the marital exemption from punishment for abduction and rape. Stiffer penalties for rape were also introduced. However the law has not been rigorously enforced. Indeed, anecdotal information suggests abductions and rapes ceased when the outcome of Woineshet’s case was uncertain, but resumed when it was clear the perpetrators would go unpunished. In our efforts to seek justice for Woineshet, as well as to secure enforcement of the law for other girls who are still victim of the traditional practice of bride abduction, EWLA and Equality Now have submitted a communication to the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights claiming violation of Woineshet’s rights under the African Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights. The case is currently under review.

Now the work of EWLA and others like it is at serious risk. A proposed new law in Ethiopia to regulate charities and societies threatens to halt the work of non-governmental organizations (NGOs), particularly those working in the field of human rights and justice and law enforcement services. The Charities and Societies Proclamation as currently drafted would give a newly-established Charities and Societies Agency very wide discretion to regulate NGOs and control their activities. Of crucial particular concern is the ban on NGOs which receive more than 10% of their funding from overseas from participating in work that promotes human and democratic rights, equality (including that of women), the rights of children and people with disabilities, conflict resolution, and the efficiency of justice and law enforcement. NGOs already fear the cancellation of valuable projects because the money to fund them comes from outside the country and it is unrealistic to expect local fundraising to make up the shortfall. In anticipation of passage of this bill, NGOs are also losing valuable staff who need to secure a more certain livelihood. This draconian and oppressive law, if it comes into force, could end the valuable work of many organizations and would be a severely wounding blow to an open and transparent society in Ethiopia.

EWLA faces a significant scaling down of its projects and eventual closure. It was founded by Ethiopian women lawyers in 1996 and its mission is to promote the economic, political, social and legal rights of women. It assists women to secure full protection of their rights under the Constitution of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and international human rights conventions to which Ethiopia is a party. EWLA also operates shelters for women survivors of violence. In September 2001, the Ministry of Justice attempted to bar EWLA from operating on the basis that it was engaging in activities other than those permitted by law. The attack on EWLA came after it made public the case of Hermela Wosenyeleh, a victim of sexual harassment, who was not able to secure adequate police protection. Domestic and international protests eventually rescinded EWLA’s suspension. EWLA is particularly concerned that the law could potentially reverse the gains made so far since organizations such as EWLA have been the catalyzing force behind women's rights promotion and protection by advocating for law reform and pioneering the provision of free legal aid to poor women victims of violence.

The Charities and Societies Proclamation is said to be aimed at aiding and facilitating the role of charities and societies in the overall development of the Ethiopian people. NGOs do not question the right of the Ethiopian government to regulate the work of charities in accordance with transparent and reasonable criteria which seek to improve the administration and functioning of charitable organizations and to hold them accountable to their mandates. Of concern if the Proclamation is passed into law in its current form is the effective ban on many organizations working on human rights and to improve the criminal justice system since most of these organizations depend on international funding. In addition, the draft Proclamation gives wide discretion to the proposed Charities and Societies Agency to set its own rules and regulations for the supervision and control of NGOs’ operations, and provides NGOs with relatively restricted ability to appeal any Agency decision, despite a Constitutional provision that the affairs of government will be transparent. The Ethiopian Constitution also protects freedom of expression, opinion, and petition among other rights. Similar provisions are included in various international human rights instruments to which Ethiopia is a party, including the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. The Proclamation is at the last stage before being adopted into law. It is said the government wants to move swiftly for its adoption so that funds from abroad for human rights projects for the next financial year will be cancelled.

Recommended Actions( PLEASE NOTE )

Please write to the officials listed below expressing deep concern over the draft Charities and Societies Proclamation as it would effectively disallow human rights organizations from operating in Ethiopia. Highlight also the unacceptably wide scope of authority given to the proposed Charities and Societies Agency under the bill and the lack of transparency regarding its terms of operation. Ask the officials to ensure removal of the requirement that NGOs working on women’s rights and other specified issues raise at least 90% of their funding domestically and urge them to promote comprehensive revision of the text to guarantee that all NGOs, including those working to promote human rights, including women’s rights, are permitted to operate without political interference as provided under the Ethiopian Constitution and international human rights treaties to which Ethiopia is a party.

Sample letter to Ethiopian officials

Letters should go immediately to:

H.E. Berhan Hailu
Minister of Justice
P O. Box 1370
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Tel: +251 11 551 3620
Fax: +251 11 551 7775
Email: justice@ethionet.et

H.E. Muferiat Kamil
Minister of Women’s Affairs
P.O. Box 1293
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Tel: +251 11 416 6375
Fax: +251 11 416 6362

With copies to:

H.E. Dr. Kassa G. Hiwot
Commissioner Ethiopian Human Rights Commission
P.O. Box 1165
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Tel: +251 11 618 0046
Fax: +251 11 618 0041
Email: hrcom@ethionet.et

H.E. Ato Abay Tekele
Ombudsman Institution
P.O. Box 2459
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Tel: +251 11 553 2052/53
Fax: +251 11 553 2073
Email: ombudsmaneth@ethionet.et

"Mortar shells slammed into a busy market in Mogadishu, the capital, on Tuesday"

From the NY Times, a bad omen:

"Somalia: 10 Die in Market Attack

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Published: December 30, 2008

Mortar shells slammed into a busy market in Mogadishu, the capital, on Tuesday, witnesses said, as the country’s weak government crumbled and the impending pullout of Ethiopian troops raised fears that Islamic insurgents might take over. At least 10 people were killed in the attack, witnesses said. Insurgents attacked bases of government soldiers and African Union peacekeepers, and mortar shells fired in retaliation hit the market, which the insurgents may have been using as a base."

"Hussein wants to include them and marginalise what he sees as a small rump of hardliners"

From the FT, an expected event in Somalia:

"Somali President Yusuf resigns

BAIDOA, Somalia, Dec 29 - Somali President Abdullahi Yusuf resigned on Monday, ending a deadlock at the top of the interim government and paving the way for a new administration in the anarchic Horn of Africa nation.

Yusuf told parliament that speaker Sheikh Aden Madobe would take over and blamed the international community for failing to support the government. Yusuf flew home to Puntland, Somalia’s semi-autonomous northern region.

A surge in sea piracy in the busy Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean off Somalia has seen some 110 ships reported to have been attacked and 42 hijacked this year. Fourteen of the hijacked vessels are still being held hostage by the pirates, along with 240 crew, according to the International Maritime Bureau.

”As I promised when you elected me on October 14, 2004, I would stand down if I failed to fulfil my duty, I have decided to return the responsibility you gave me,” Yusuf said.

The president of Somalia’s fractured, Western-backed government had become increasingly unpopular at home and abroad and was blamed by Washington, Europe and African neighbours for stalling a U.N.-hosted peace process.

Diplomats welcomed Yusuf’s decision, saying that with his departure, a planned withdrawal of Ethiopian troops and growing opposition to hardline al Shabaab Islamists there was now real hope for political progress in Somalia( PLEASE ).

A two-year Islamist insurgency controls most of southern and central Somalia outside the capital Mogadishu and Baidoa, the seat of parliament, but it is a fractious group.

Al Shabaab, which is on Washington’s list of terrorist foreign groups, has been imposing a strict version of Islamic law in towns it controls, but has faced fierce opposition from moderate Islamists in the past week.

The moderate Sunni Islamist group Ahlu Sunna Waljamaca has pledged to oust al Shabaab from Somalia, accusing them of killing religious leaders and desecrating graves, acts they say are against Islamic teachings.

ISLAMIST CLASHES

There was fierce fighting between the two groups again on Monday after Ahlu Sunna Waljamaca seized two towns from al Shabaab in central Somalia over the weekend.

”There is a definite groundswell within Somalia against the al Shabaab and with Yusuf taking his militia and troops with him, and the Ethiopeans going, who are the al Shabaab left to fight? said a Western diplomat in the region.

”If the new parliament is persuaded to be made inclusive and selection process stands up to scrutiny, then there is a real hope,” he said, adding that Yusuf should be given some credit for doing the ”right thing”.

Yusuf had been at loggerheads with Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein for a while over the government’s composition and the two were also at odds over including moderate Islamists in the peace process.

Hussein wants to include them and marginalise what he sees as a small rump of hardliners( WORTH A TRY ). Yusuf’s decision to sack Hussein this month was not recognised by regional nations and they imposed sanctions on the president for hindering the process.

Analysts said the parliament speaker should remain in place until a new more-inclusive government has been formed, and then a new president should be elected."

This is a hopeful sign, but no more.