Showing posts with label Counterparties. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Counterparties. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Goldman Sachs recorded a gain “over time” on the value of the hedges it bought to guard against a default on AIG

TO BE NOTED: From Bloomberg:

"Goldman Sachs’s Viniar ‘Mystified’ by Interest in AIG (Update1)

By Christine Harper

April 14 (Bloomberg) -- David Viniar, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s chief financial officer, said he’s “mystified” by the interest investors and government officials have shown in the bank’s trading relationship with American International Group Inc.

“They’re one of thousands and thousands and thousands of counterparties and the results of any trading with AIG are completely immaterial to what we do,” Viniar said today in an interview. “I am mystified by this fascination with AIG.”

Goldman Sachs, the most-profitable securities firm before converting to a bank last year, received more cash from AIG after the Federal Reserve rescued it last year than any other counterparty. The company has said it was insured against any losses from AIG and it didn’t benefit from the government’s rescue of the New York-based insurer. The Treasury Department’s chief watchdog for the financial rescue program is investigating whether AIG paid more than necessary to banks.

Viniar told analysts today that any profits related to AIG in the January-to-March quarter “rounded to zero,” as most of the transactions were unwound before the end of the year. In an interview, he also said profits in December weren’t significant.

‘Rounded to Zero’

“I would never tell you that we didn’t book any profit, I don’t even know,” he said. “I couldn’t tell you with any counterparty that we booked zero, but I could tell you it rounded to zero.”

After AIG was rescued by the U.S. from collapse last year, banks that bought credit-default swaps got $22.4 billion in collateral and $27.1 billion in payments to retire contracts, the insurer said last month.

Neil Barofsky, special inspector general for the government’s Troubled Asset Relief Program, began an audit two weeks ago into whether there were attempts by AIG or the government to reduce the payments, according to an April 3 letter to Representative Elijah Cummings. The Maryland Democrat requested the probe last month along with 26 other members of Congress.

Lawmakers, frustrated with the cost of an AIG bailout that has expanded three times, have asked why about $50 billion was paid after the initial September rescue to banks that bought credit-default swaps from the firm. The audit will reveal who made “critical decisions” regarding the payments and provide an explanation for the actions, Barofsky said.

‘Misperceptions’

Viniar held a conference call on March 20 to answer questions about the firm’s trading relationship with AIG and to “clarify certain misperceptions.”

When AIG was rescued, Goldman Sachs had $10 billion of exposure to the insurance company that was offset with $7.5 billion of collateral as well as credit-default swaps that would have paid off in the event of an AIG bankruptcy, Viniar said on the March 20 call.

He also said on the call that Goldman Sachs recorded a gain “over time” on the value of the hedges it bought to guard against a default on AIG, even though the government enabled the insurer to honor its obligations. In today’s interview, he said those gains were booked “from 2006 to now” and that any gains booked in the first quarter “would have been very, very small.”

Goldman Sachs reported late yesterday that it earned $1.81 billion, or $3.39 per share, in the first quarter on record revenue from trading fixed-income, currencies and commodities. The firm also raised $5 billion by selling stock at $123 per share, a 5.5 percent discount from yesterday’s closing price.

To contact the reporter on this story: Christine Harper in New York at charper@bloomberg.net."

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

The whole point of rescuing AIG was to keep it out of bankruptcy

TO BE NOTED: From The Economics Of Contempt:

"More AIG Counterparty Nonsense

ProPublica has ridiculous article titled, Does AIG Really Need to Pay Its Counterparties in Full?

Yes, AIG really has to pay its counterparties in full. The whole point of rescuing AIG was to keep it out of bankruptcy, and short of bankruptcy, there's no mechanism for forcing AIG's counterparties to take a haircut.

But the ProPublica article really goes off the deep end when it says:
Another option is to break the contracts and let the counterparties -- many of which are themselves beneficiaries of federal bailouts -- sue the federal government, if they dare.
...
Such a suit may not fare well in court because some legal questions swirl around whether the bulk of credit default swaps are legally enforceable.

Some of the swaps function like insurance policies on corporate bonds. Purchasers of such credit default swaps know that even if the bond issuer defaults, they will limit their losses. But many other swaps are more like bets (akin to buying "insurance" on another person's house), and it is unclear from a legal perspective if there is enough of an insurable interest to make the contracts enforceable.
Wow. First of all, it's simply not true that "legal questions swirl around whether the bulk of credit default swaps are legally enforceable." Standard credit default swaps are enforceable. The credit default swaps that AIG wrote are enforceable. If the government breaches the contracts and refuses to pay, the counterparties will sue, and the government will lose.

The author clearly shows that she has no idea what she's talking about when she says that it's "unclear from a legal perspective if there is enough of an insurable interest to make the contracts enforceable." Credit default swaps are not insurance contracts, so there doesn't need to be an insurable interest! CDS are like insurance contracts, but there are key differences. Just because a CDS contract doesn't fit the statutory definition of an "insurance contract," doesn't mean that it's not enforceable.

Honestly, the complaints about AIG paying its counterparties get more idiotic by the day.

Monday, April 6, 2009

CDSs are still trading, but...

TO BE NOTED: From Business Week:

"AIG's CDS Hoard: The Great Unraveling

The process of unwinding AIG's credit default swaps isn't rocket science, but it is messy and expensive. Here's why

Credit default swaps got American International Group (AIG) into its current mess. Unraveling them might get U.S. taxpayers out of it. But it won't be easy or cheap.

The white-hot furor over AIG's retention bonuses seems to have died down a bit. Last week the House of Representatives passed a watered-down version of the bill that was supposed to tax those payments out of existence. But AIG isn't leaving the bull's-eye anytime soon. The Government Accountability Office said on Mar. 31 that AIG should demand concessions from its trading partners and employees. On Apr. 2, deposed AIG Chief Executive Hank Greenberg paid a visit to Capitol Hill, blaming his successors for the company's failings and calling its government bailout a failure. And New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is probing the $165 million bonus payments and the billions AIG transferred to such banks as Goldman Sachs (GS) and Société Générale (SOGN.PA).

Amid all this hubbub, AIG's employees plug away, trying to wind down the beleaguered company's remaining credit default swaps, which are basically insurance policies purchased against the default of various forms of debt.

So what's so hard about unwinding a CDS? And does it really take a financial rocket scientist, chained to a seat by a fat retention bonus? Or could it be done by some of the vast army of recently unemployed Wall Street workers?

Large, Complex Web of Derivatives

Part of the problem is that not only are the financial instruments themselves complicated, but they involve tangled relationships of companies and investors, each with their own interests. AIG owns $1.5 trillion in derivatives, including CDSs, interest rate swaps, and currency swaps, among others. And these trades overlap in a large web across all its companies. Since everyone knows that AIG needs to rip up its contracts, its partners are holding out for the best deal possible.

The nastiest, most complicated, and most controversial types of AIG's CDSs have largely been taken off the company's books. Those swaps were customized by the insurance company to protect financial institutions from default in illiquid pools of mortgage-backed securities, the now infamous collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs. When the value of the CDOs tanked and AIG's credit rating was cut, the insurance company was forced to pay billions of dollars in collateral to companies known as "counterparties"—money it didn't have.

To exit the contracts, AIG used Federal Reserve and Treasury Dept. cash to pay the counterparties 43¢ on the dollar for the securities (which now reside on the Fed balance sheet as Maiden Lane III). Then the company paid off $26 billion in insurance on the same CDOs to Goldman Sachs ($5.6 billion) and Société Générale ($6.9 billion), among others. This cost taxpayers $46 billion.

That's not the end of the story, unfortunately. AIG's remaining credit default swaps may not be as toxic. Many of the remaining swaps are, in fact, what the industry calls "plain vanilla"—fairly standard, liquid contracts. But that doesn't mean they'll be easy to get rid of.

"Like You're Flying Blind in a 747"

There is no centralized market for derivatives, so AIG's traders in Wilton, Conn.; London; Paris; and Tokyo can't just look at a PC screen and see the current price, as a trader would do with a stock. Instead they look at the available data on such things as interest rates and the earnings of the companies whose debt is insured, and then use mathematical models to determine what they want to pay. Next they reach out to other traders to gauge what might be a reasonable price. At the same time, the trader has to figure out the overall impact the trade will have on AIG's book.

"It's like you're flying blind in a 747," says Marc Groz, a hedge-fund risk manager who now heads up risk management firm Topos. "You can only see what the instruments are telling you."

Because they are contracts between two parties, AIG's credit default swaps can't simply be sold. Some will expire on their own, like the $234 billion of swaps that are expected to come off the books in the next year and a half. Others will be terminated at the request of the owner. AIG can opt to let the contracts expire. But $34 billion worth of CDSs is set to run down over the next five—or more—years, which would seem to run counter to its avowed plan to wind the contracts down as quickly as possible. If AIG wants out, it will have to go back to the other side of those trades and negotiate an exit.

That won't be easy—or cheap. CDSs are still trading, but the spreads—the difference between what dealers are willing to pay to buy or sell—have widened, making it more expensive to get out.

Needed: Steely Nerves and Keen Math

"The Street knows they have to unwind positions," says TABB Group's Kevin McPartland, an analyst who specializes in derivatives. "It gives AIG little pricing power."

Working those deals doesn't necessarily require the same hands that put them together in the first place. But it's not a task for just any newly minted MBA. Wall Street has largely abandoned the shoulder-to-shoulder battle of the exchange floor for a more formula-driven mode of trading. Steely nerves are still required, but so is an acumen for high-level math.

Such skill sets are not necessarily uncommon on Wall Street but they're still in demand, despite waves of industry layoffs.

"The vast majority of professionals at AIG are just doing their jobs," says Rob Sloan, head of U.S. financial services at Egon Zehnder. "And many could get jobs elsewhere."

AIG declined to make its employees available to walk through its swap-unwinding operations, which are conducted through the financial products unit known within the company as FP. The company also declined to say just how far down it has managed to cut the pile. "FP's employees have made tremendous progress unwinding FP's trading positions, business books and lowering its risk," AIG said in an e-mail. "Despite this progress, the risks in the books at FP are still large, and require the skills and professionalism of the traders, marketers and support functions."

Levisohn is a staff editor at BusinessWeek covering finance and personal finance."

When CDS prices become too high, counterparties may back away because they don’t want to pay so much to protect themselves.

TO BE NOTED: From Bloomberg:

Being Morgan Stanley With Stock Up 50% Means JPMorgan Debt Wins

By Christine Harper and Shannon D. Harrington

April 6 (Bloomberg) -- Being Morgan Stanley is a struggle between bond investors who expect the worst and shareholders who say the best is yet to come.

By its own admission, Morgan Stanley is the preeminent adviser to companies, governments and investors. The New York- based firm has outperformed the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and the financial industry this year with a 50 percent advance on its shares. That’s no comfort to the people who trade Morgan Stanley debt, which costs almost twice as much to insure against default as that of JPMorgan Chase & Co., the bank from which Morgan Stanley was created in 1935.

“It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if bankers at JPMorgan point to the fact that Morgan Stanley’s credit-default swaps are trading outside their own to help win business,” said William Cohan, a former investment banker and author of “House of Cards,” a book about the collapse of New York-based securities firm Bear Stearns Cos.

The Wall Street that shaped the financial world for two decades ended last September after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. That’s when Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley persuaded the Federal Reserve to let them become deposit-taking institutions, concluding there is no future in remaining investment banks as long as investors considered the leverage-based model for making money broken.

Morgan Stanley’s five-year swaps, the equivalent of insurance against its bonds defaulting, are trading at 3.7 percentage points a year, compared with 1.9 percentage points for JPMorgan bonds, according to prices provided by CMA DataVision of New York. The spread means it costs $180,000 more each year to protect $10 million of Morgan Stanley debt than to insure the debt of JPMorgan.

Credit Spreads

The dichotomy gives New York-based JPMorgan, the second- biggest U.S. bank by assets, an advantage in over-the-counter derivatives and prime brokerage, where clients depend on a bank’s creditworthiness. Derivatives are financial instruments derived from stocks, bonds, loans, currencies and commodities, or linked to specific events like changes in interest rates or the weather.

“When a financial institution’s credit spreads get too wide, it makes it more difficult to engage in otherwise routine transactions,” said Robert Claassen, chairman of the derivatives and structured-products group at New York-based law firm Paul, Hastings, Janofsky & Walker LLP.

John J. Mack, chief executive officer at Morgan Stanley, declined to comment for this story, as did Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan’s CEO.

Deposit Base

The conversion of Morgan Stanley last year into the fifth- largest U.S. bank by assets ended its 73-year life as a securities firm. The move has yet to persuade investors that the company is as creditworthy as JPMorgan, which was forced to divest its investment bank after the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933.

Half of JPMorgan’s liabilities are deposits, compared with 7 percent at Morgan Stanley. JPMorgan had $1.01 trillion in deposits among its $2 trillion in liabilities at the end of 2008, according to the bank’s annual report filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Morgan Stanley’s $608 billion of liabilities included $42.8 billion of deposits at the end of November, according to reports submitted to regulators.

“One of the key drivers in perception of credit quality is the deposit base,” said Emmanuel Weyd, a former JPMorgan credit analyst who is now a fund manager at Louis Dreyfus & Cie. SA in Paris. “Even if Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs just got a bank license last year, to build up the deposit base is going to take a lot of time.”

October Surge

Goldman Sachs, which was the largest U.S. securities firm before becoming the sixth-biggest bank by assets, has a lower credit-default swap price than Morgan Stanley’s, even though only 3 percent of the New York-based firm’s liabilities are deposits. Its swaps are trading at 2.7 percentage points.

CDS prices are nowhere near the level they reached following the Sept. 15 bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, when panic about another investment bank collapsing caused a surge in the cost of protection on Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.

At its worst, in mid-October, investors were paying as much as 24 percent upfront and 5 percent a year to protect against a Morgan Stanley default for five years, according to prices from broker Phoenix Partners Group in New York. That means it cost $2.4 million upfront and $500,000 a year to insure $10 million of bonds for five years.

Morgan Stanley Loss

While the decline in swaps prices since October is good for Morgan Stanley’s business, it also means the firm will have to book a loss on its credit spreads in the first quarter, according to analysts. Accounting rules require the firm to mark up the value of structured notes tied to Morgan Stanley’s bond prices, which will increase the firm’s liability. Roger Freeman, an analyst at Barclays Capital in New York, estimates that will cost the firm $950 million in the quarter.

Morgan Stanley will report a loss of 5 cents a share in the first quarter, according to the average estimate of seven analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The predictions range from a loss of $1.30 a share to a profit of 41 cents a share.

The firm’s share price has climbed 50 percent to $24.06 on April 3, while JPMorgan’s stock has dropped 7 percent to $29.28 since the end of December. In the past 12 months, Morgan Stanley is down 49 percent, compared with JPMorgan’s 36 percent decline.

Bank executives watch their CDS prices as closely as they monitor stock prices. Not only do CDS prices signal the company’s cost of borrowing, they also show how expensive it is for trading partners to hedge themselves against the risk they take doing business with a bank. When CDS prices become too high, counterparties may back away because they don’t want to pay so much to protect themselves.

‘Scared Off’

“These things are absolutely crucial,” said Michael Johannes, an associate professor of finance at Columbia Business School in New York who does research on derivatives. “Insofar as the clients of those firms get scared off, it could make a difference. If I were a big client, I’d probably look at it.”

Morgan Stanley’s prime brokerage business, which provides loans and other services to hedge funds, lost 65 percent of its assets in the three months that ended in November, mainly because funds withdrew money following the Lehman bankruptcy.

While Morgan Stanley executives said some customers have since returned, the firm is shrinking the business. Brad Hintz, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. in New York, said in a March 13 report that he expects JPMorgan to overtake Morgan Stanley as the biggest prime brokerage, as clients seek safety and brokers who can lend at the lowest rates.

‘Flight to Quality’

A JPMorgan executive acknowledged that the firm told investors at an analysts meeting on Feb. 26 that it benefited from a “flight to quality” during the last few months of 2008. One slide shown at the session noted that “markets client revenue” had jumped 40 percent from a year earlier.

JPMorgan is the top-ranked manager of U.S. bond sales so far this year, as it was in 2008, and has arranged $12.8 billion of rights offers in Europe, twice as much as Goldman Sachs, the closest competitor, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Morgan Stanley ranks fourth in U.S. bond sales this year and eighth in European rights offerings.

“JPMorgan has captured the hearts and minds of a lot of investors, maybe excessively,” said Ricardo Kleinbaum, a credit analyst at BNP Paribas SA in New York. “But it became self- fulfilling. They’ve gained market share in new deal activity.”

Among the 11 largest credit-default swaps dealers, only Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch unit have greater CDS spreads than Morgan Stanley’s, according to CMA, a London-based data provider.

Citigroup, Merrill

Citigroup swaps have widened 4.5 percentage points this year to 6.4 percentage points as the U.S. government rescued the New York-based bank for the third time, raising concerns among holders of the most junior debt and debt-like securities that they may have to take losses.

“It’s not a perfect hedge, but let’s just say that if you’re worried Citi isn’t going to pay your trust preferred, then you go out and buy CDS,” Kleinbaum said.

Swaps on New York-based Merrill Lynch, which Bank of America acquired in January after reaching an agreement in September as Lehman was failing, trade at 5.3 percentage points, wider than its parent’s, because the bank has said it isn’t formally guaranteeing Merrill Lynch’s debt. Bank of America’s swaps trade at 3.5 percentage points, largely because of concerns about “the risk of nationalization,” said Weyd at Louis Dreyfus in Paris.

“People aren’t concerned about the risk of nationalization for JPMorgan,” he said.

Government Guarantees

Bank creditworthiness isn’t in the spotlight as much as it was in September and October, before the U.S. government provided capital to the nine biggest banks and started supplying federal guarantees on their new debt issues for three years. A new clearinghouse to handle over-the-counter trading for credit- default swaps has mitigated concerns about so-called counterparty risk, because it provides a reserve to cover any losses if a participant fails to honor its contracts.

“The paranoia of the fall that underpinned the flurry over counterparty diversification has definitely tapered off,” said Jack McDonald, CEO of Conifer Securities LLC, a San Francisco- based hedge fund administrator that last year started a prime brokerage through JPMorgan. “People feel much more confident in the longevity of a lot of these financial institutions and the backstop that the government is willing to provide.”

The MSCI World Index jumped 7.2 percent in March, the biggest monthly gain in six years. The rally improved market psychology and reduced concerns about the health of trading partners, though that could reverse if stocks tumble again, said an executive at one European bank who declined to be identified.

‘Bailout Fatigue’

“We’re running into bailout fatigue, also a reduction in the perceived resources for federal government bailouts,” said Sean Egan, president of Egan-Jones Ratings Co. in Haverford, Pennsylvania. “Bankruptcy is not an alternative, but a government takeover certainly is, and a squeezing down of the bondholders is a real possibility.”

One solution for Morgan Stanley’s Mack may be to capitalize on the recent gains in his stock price by selling shares and using the proceeds to buy back bonds. That would lower his firm’s CDS prices, said Cohan, the former banker and author.

“The best way to defeat the risk implied in credit-default swaps would be to raise equity and pay down debt,” Cohan said."

Friday, March 20, 2009

Why is anyone surprised that AIG made substantial payments to large financial institutions?

TO BE NOTED: From Derivative Dribble:

"
The Non-Event That Is AIG’s Counterparty List In Uncategorized on March 20, 2009 at 6:47 am

Why is anyone surprised that AIG made substantial payments to large financial institutions? Wasn’t the entire purpose of bailing out AIG to prevent the collapse of the financial system? Such a purpose would imply that without a bailout, the financial system would collapse. Therefore, we should expect the result of any bailout made with that purpose to result in substantial payments into the financial system. Since large financial institutions are at the heart of the financial system, we should expect such a bailout to result in substantial payments to large financial institutions. Is the world so devoid of news that such a trifling and obvious result warrants extensive coverage?

Without the report, we could not have known exactly who had received funds. But, we could have used information that was already available and apply categorical logic (or common sense if you prefer) to infer what sector was on the receiving end, as I have demonstrated above. But then again, it appears logic, common sense, and facts have nothing to do with public policy or debate on this crisis. Rather, populist rage, childish blame, and jealousy are firmly in the lead."

Sunday, March 15, 2009

there is always the chance of a violent reversal in sentiment.

TO BE NOTED: From the FT:

"
Expect plenty of mood swings before optimism returns

By Tony Jackson

Published: March 8 2009 14:22 | Last updated: March 9 2009 05:41

At a recent session with investment bankers and pension consultants, the arresting question arose of whether credit is the new equity. Specifically, might today’s asset of choice for pension funds be not stocks, but corporate bonds?

This reminded me of the depths of the bear market in late 1974. Then, too, there was much talk of the death of the equity. Sure enough, at the turn of the year the market took off like a rocket.

Similarly, I would not be greatly surprised if equities staged a revival shortly. Whether that would represent more than another bear rally is, of course, the central question.

But consider first the bond-equity thesis, since it is relevant. Fund managers, I am told, are now putting most of their new money into corporate bonds, and buying equities only when obliged to by cash calls.

The argument for that is clear enough. Bond yields are high and guaranteed, while equity dividends are now painfully unpredictable. And while both get wiped out by insolvency, equity goes first.

Official policy is also powerfully biased towards bonds at present. Internationally, there is a clear presumption that bank creditors will be protected while shareholders are cannon fodder.

Similarly, various countries plan to buy corporate bonds directly as part of their bank rescue efforts. Just when and how much remains unclear, but every little helps.

It might be objected that there are not nearly enough corporate bonds around to substitute for equities, and that they are highly illiquid. The answer to the first is that any such shift would have to be gradual anyway, since buying bonds heavily would mean selling equities and incurring huge writeoffs.

As to liquidity, one fund manager tells me he regards illiquidity as a distinct problem in equities as well. This is because, in pre-crisis days, the lion’s share of liquidity came from hedge funds and proprietary trading desks.

Both are now mostly gone, and the survivors have nothing like the old leverage at their disposal. Those investors impatient for a return to “normal” liquidity in equities may have a long wait.

It is of course possible, as some maintain, that corporate bonds are now in a serious bubble. But that, the cynic might say, does not invalidate the broader argument. If the institutions could not hold assets which are subject to boom and bust, what price equities or real estate?

The much bigger objection, obviously, is the threat of resurgent inflation in a year or two’s time. These days, the sophisticated fund manager will guard against that with inflation swaps. But in the post-Lehman world, these are only as good as the counterparty. Precisely the same holds for insuring against default through credit derivatives.

Mention of credit derivatives brings us back to the wider argument. Last week, the cost of insuring European non-investment grade bonds against default rose to a new record.

The fact that such insurance now costs marginally more than in the depths of the banking panic last year – when it was unclear how governments would respond – is significant. It tells us the crisis is now systemic at the corporate level, and that the outlook for defaults is still getting worse.

So much the worse for the banks, whose bad debt provisions may prove correspondingly inadequate. The risk is thus of a vicious circle, whereby bank capital is further weakened and there is even less lending to the corporate sector.

In which case, one might ask what chance there is of an equity rally. After all, Morgan Stanley last week raised its estimate of peak-to-trough falls for UK corporate earnings to 60 per cent – compared, it reckons, with a 57 per cent fall in the Great Depression.

But it is just such extreme propositions that should give hope to the optimist. I am by no means saying Morgan Stanley is wrong – merely that when such ideas can be seriously entertained, there is always the chance of a violent reversal in sentiment.

The same thought is prompted by the astonishing spectacle of General Electric selling on under four times earnings. Suppose, for the sake of argument, that GE’s hugely indebted finance business can indeed drag down what was once American’s most-admired company. But it would probably take a while, and there would be plenty of room for mood swings in the meantime.

Or consider the big UK insurers, which dropped by between 20 and 33 per cent on a single day last week. If the market were to turn, so would their capital ratios, and the result would be galvanising.

And above all, markets worldwide have collapsed to the point where even the US is somewhat cheap by long-term criteria. My bet is it will get cheaper still before we are done. What happens in between could be another matter."

The recent uproar over the government's refusal to reveal AIG's counterparties on its CDS trades is silly

From Economics Of Contempt:

"All Bailouts Are Counterparty Bailouts

The recent uproar over the government's refusal to reveal AIG's counterparties on its CDS trades is silly, and reflects a basic misunderstanding of how financial markets work.

With regard to AIG specifically: yes, AIG used some of the bailout money to post collateral it owed to counterparties on CDS trades. But it also used a significant amount of bailout money to repay counterparties in its securities lending program (basically a repo desk—AIG lends out securities it owns on a short-term basis in exchange for cash.) To settle transactions with counterparties returning the borrowed securities, AIG has to return the cash (less interest). If the government hadn't rescued AIG, it wouldn't have had enough cash to pay these counterparties back, and it would have essentially defaulted. In fact, a full $19 billion of taxpayer money has gone to AIG's securities lending program so far.

So the AIG bailout was also a bailout of AIG's counterparties in its securities lending program. Should the government be forced to reveal the identity of all these counterparties as well? Surely not—and no sane person would disagree. Why should CDS counterparties be any different?

More generally, you can see how this reasoning applies to bailouts in general. Yes, AIG's bailout was a bailout of its counterparties, but all bailouts in the financial sector are bailouts of counterparties. The purpose of all bailouts is to avoid insolvency. Avoiding insolvency requires paying counterparties the money they're owed. There's nothing special about the AIG bailout in that regard.

Finally, regarding the ubiquitous claim that "taxpayers have the right to know" who AIG's counterparties are: no, we don't. All of AIG's CDS contracts are subject to confidentiality agreements. Becoming the majority owner of a publicly-traded company does not entitle you to breach contracts that are binding on the company.


Me:
Blogger Don said...

I basically agree with you, but was going to contend that this was simple political venting, which, while histrionic, was important. However, the reporting and commentary have been so bad that I have to agree with you entirely.

Don the libertarian Democrat

March 15, 2009 3:20 PM

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

"it’s a very important beginning for this wholly unregulated product class…"

Shopyield with an important post on the CDS Market:

"
Central platform

Excellent progress today on CDS… in a roundabout way the SEC has exempted the DTCC owned LCH.Clearnet to clear credit default swaps in a central counterparty platform… a central place for trades to come together… it’s a very important beginning for this wholly unregulated product class…( I AGREE )

~~~~ ” …. Today’s announcement is an important step in our efforts to add transparency and structure to the opaque and unregulated multi-trillion dollar credit default swaps market,” said SEC Chairman Christopher Cox. “These conditional exemptions will allow a central counterparty to be quickly up and running, while protecting investors through regulatory oversight. Although more needs to be done in this area legislatively, these actions will shine much-needed light on credit default swaps trading.”( EXCELLENT )

… Erik R. Sirri, Director of the SEC’s Division of Trading and Markets, said, “These temporary and conditional exemptions are the best way to facilitate the prompt establishment of a central counterparty for CDS transactions.” ( VERY GOOD NEWS )

“Their limited duration will allow the Commission and its staff to gain more direct experience with the development of the centrally cleared CDS market, while the conditions to the exemptions will give the Commission the ability to oversee the CDS market after the central counterparty becomes operational.”…. ” ~~~~

Now that the DTCC is publishing weekly CDS figures we can map the market as it migrates from an OTC dealer market to a hybrid OTC/exchange traded space… congrats to all the parties involved… it looks like many parties had a hand in this process…

The day prior ~~~~ “ … Liffe, the global derivatives business of NYSE Euronext (NYX) and LCH.Clearnet Ltd (LCH.Clearnet), the global central counterparty (CCP), jointly announce that they have today launched credit default swap (CDS) index contracts on Bclear.

With this launch, Liffe becomes the first exchange to offer clearing of CDS contracts. The launch also marks a significant expansion of Bclear from a successful equity derivatives service to a wider cross-asset class platform. ( GOOD )

The contracts reference ISDA 2003 Credit Derivative definitions, and in the case of credit events settle using the Final Price of ISDA Credit Event Auctions. The CDS clearing offered via Bclear will initially cover the Markit iTraxx Europe, Market iTraxx Crossover and Markit iTraxx Hi-Vol indices….” ~~~~

From Securities Law Professor…

~~~~ “SEC Approves Exemptions for Central Counterparty in CDS

The SEC today approved temporary exemptions allowing LCH.Clearnet Ltd. to operate as a central counterparty for credit default swaps with the expectation of stabilizing financial markets by reducing counterparty risk and helping to promote efficiency in the credit default swap market. The Commission developed these temporary exemptions in close consultation with the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (FRB), the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and the U.K. Financial Services Authority.

The President’s Working Group on Financial Markets has stated that the implementation of central counterparty services for credit default swaps was a top priority. In furtherance of this goal, the Commission, the FRB and the CFTC signed a Memorandum of Understanding in November 2008 that establishes a framework for consultation and information sharing on issues related to central counterparties for credit default swaps.

The temporary exemptions will facilitate central counterparties such as LCH.Clearnet and certain of their participants to implement centralized clearing quickly, while providing the Commission time to review their operations and evaluate( THIS IS WHAT THEY SHOULD DO ) whether registrations or permanent exemptions should be granted in the future. The conditions that apply to the exemptions are designed to provide that key investor protections and important elements of Commission oversight apply, while taking into account that applying all the particulars of the securities laws could have the unintended consequence of deterring the prompt establishment and use of a central counterparty.” ~~~~

CDS indices represent a significant share of trading (from the DTCC Trade Information Warehouse Data) data for week ending 12/19/08.

Buyer Type x Seller Type
TOTAL FOR ALL CDS (Credit Default Single Names)
Seller Type
Dealer Non Dealer/Customer Totals
Gross Notional (USD EQ) Contracts Gross Notional (USD EQ) Contracts Gross Notional (USD EQ) Contracts
Buyer Type Dealer 12,102,928,122,740 1,581,743 1,238,098,385,882 173,746 13,341,026,508,622 1,755,489
Non Dealer/Customer 1,390,920,038,541 206,193 20,956,526,689 2,457 1,411,876,565,230 208,650
TOTAL 13,493,848,161,281 1,787,936 1,259,054,912,571 176,203 14,752,903,073,852 1,964,139

Buyer Type x Seller Type
TOTAL FOR ALL CDX (Credit Default Index)
Seller Type
Dealer Non Dealer/Customer Totals
Gross Notional (USD EQ) Contracts Gross Notional (USD EQ) Contracts Gross Notional (USD EQ) Contracts
Buyer Type Dealer 9,064,083,272,401 108,873 911,914,643,912 25,076 9,975,997,916,313 133,949
Non Dealer/Customer 1,006,324,321,097 23,473 4,810,148,836 170 1,011,134,469,933 23,643
TOTAL 10,070,407,593,498 132,346 916,724,792,748 25,246 10,987,132,386,246 157,592

Buyer Type x Seller Type
TOTAL FOR ALL CDT (Credit Default Tranche)
Seller Type
Dealer Non Dealer/Customer Totals
Gross Notional (USD EQ) Contracts Gross Notional (USD EQ) Contracts Gross Notional (USD EQ) Contracts
Buyer Type Dealer 3,115,741,737,343 61,209 157,215,648,879 4,774 3,272,957,386,222 65,983
Non Dealer/Customer 116,235,673,813 3,159 670,021,930 18 116,905,695,743 3,177
TOTAL 3,231,977,411,156 64,368 157,885,670,809 4,792 3,389,863,081,965 69,160

Friday, December 19, 2008

"This process repeats itself and eventually market prices will develop."

Derivative Dribble with another excellent post:

"
A Higher Plane

In this article, I will return to the ideas proposed in my article entitled, “A Conceptual Framework For Analyzing Systemic Risk,” and once again take a macro view of the role that derivatives play in the financial system and the broader economy. In that article, I said the following:

“Practically speaking, there is a limit to the amount of risk that can be created using derivatives. This limit exists for a very simple reason: the contracts are voluntary, and so if no one is willing to be exposed to a particular risk, it will not be created and assigned through a derivative. Like most market participants, derivatives traders are not in engaged in an altruistic endeavor. As a result, we should not expect them to engage in activities that they don’t expect to be profitable. Therefore, we can be reasonably certain that the derivatives market will create only as much risk as its participants expect to be profitable.” ( VERY TRUE )

The idea implicit in the above paragraph is that there is a level of demand for exposure to risk ( TRUE ). By further formalizing this concept, I will show that if we treat exposure to risk as a good, subject to the observed law of supply and demand, then credit default swaps should not create any more exposure to risk in an economy than would be present otherwise and that credit default swaps should be expected to reduce the net amount of exposure to risk ( TRUE ). This first article is devoted to formalizing the concept of the price for exposure to risk and the expected payout of a derivative as a function of that price. ( A GOOD IDEA )

Derivatives And Symmetrical Exposure To Risk

As stated here, my own view is that risk is a concept that has two components: (i) the occurrence of an event and (ii) a magnitude associated with that event. This allows us to ask two questions: ( 1 )What is the probability of the event occurring? ( 2 ) And if it occurs, what is the expected value of its associated magnitude? We say that P is exposed to a given risk if P expects to incur a gain/loss if the risk-event occurs. We say that P has positive exposure if P expects to incur a gain if the risk-event occurs; and that P has negative exposure if P expects to incur a loss if the risk-event occurs.

Exposure to any risk assigned through a derivative contract will create positive exposure to that risk for one party and negative exposure for the other ( THIS IS WHAT I SAID WAS A LOSS FOR ONE AND A GAIN FOR THE OTHER ). Moreover the magnitudes of each party’s exposure will be equal in absolute value ( THEY WILL BALANCE OUT ). This is a consequence of the fact that derivatives contracts cause payments to be made by one party to the other upon the occurrence of predefined events ( TRUE ). Thus, if one party gains X, the other loses X( I SAID THAT ABOVE. I AGREE ). And so exposure under the derivative is perfectly symmetrical ( TRUE ). Note that this is true even if a counterparty fails to pay as promised ( TRUE ). This is because there is no initial principle “investment” in a derivative. So if one party defaults on a payment under a derivative, there is no cash “loss” to the non-defaulting party ( TRUE ). That said, there could be substantial reliance losses ( TRUE ). For example, you expect to receive a $100 million credit default swap payment from XYZ, and as a result, you go out and buy $1,000 alligator skin boots, only to find that XYZ is bankrupt and unable to pay as promised. So, while there would be no cash loss, you could have relied on the payments and planned around them, causing you to incur obligations you can no longer afford ( TRUE ). Additionally, you could have reported the income in an accounting statement, and when the cash fails to appear, you would be forced to “write-down” the amount and take a paper loss ( TRUE ). However, the derivatives market is full of very bright people who have already considered counterparty risk, and the matter is dealt with through the dynamic posting of collateral over the life of the agreement, which limits each party’s ability to simply cut and run ( TRUE ). As a result, we will consider only cash losses and gains for the remainder of this article.

The Price Of Exposure To Risk

Although parties to a derivative contract do not “buy” anything in the traditional sense of exchanging cash for goods or services, they are expressing a desire to be exposed to certain risks ( THAT'S IT ). Since the exposure of each party to a derivative is equal in magnitude but opposite in sign, one party is expressing a desire for exposure to the occurrence of an event while the other is expressing a desire for exposure to the non-occurrence of that event ( TRUE ). There will be a price for exposure. That is, in order to convince someone to pay you $1 upon the occurrence of event E, that other person will ask for some percentage of $1, which we will call the fee ( PREMIUM ). Note that as expressed, the fee is fixed. So we are considering only those derivatives for which the contingent payout amounts are fixed at the outset of the transaction. For example, a credit default swap that calls for physical delivery fits into this category. As this fee increases, the payout shrinks for the party with positive exposure to the event ( TRUE ). For example, if the fee is $1 for every dollar of positive exposure, then even if the event occurs, the party with positive exposure’s payments will net to zero ( TRUE ).

This method of analysis makes it difficult to think in terms of a fee for positive exposure to the event not occurring (the other side of the trade) ( YOU KEEP THE FEES ). We reconcile this by assuming that only one payment is made under every contract, upon termination ( THAT'S IT ). For example, assume that A is positively exposed to E occurring and that B is negatively exposed to E occurring. Upon termination, either E occurred prior to termination or it did not. ( OKAY )

sym-exposure2

If E did occur, then B would pay N \cdot(1 - F) to A, where F is the fee and N is the total amount of A’s exposure, which in the case of a swap would be the notional amount of the contract":

Under a typical CDS, the protection buyer, B, agrees to make regular payments (let’s say monthly) to the protection seller, D. The amount of the monthly payments, called the swap fee, will be a percentage of the notional amount of their agreement. The term notional amount is simply a label for an amount agreed upon by the parties, the significance of which will become clear as we move on. So what does B get in return for his generosity? That depends on the type of CDS, but for now we will assume that we are dealing with what is called physical delivery. Under physical delivery, if the reference entity defaults, D agrees to (i) accept delivery of certain bonds issued by the reference entity named in the CDS and (ii) pay the notional amount in cash to B. After a default, the agreement terminates and no one makes anymore payments. If default never occurs, the agreement terminates on some scheduled date. The reference entity could be any entity that has debt obligations, like AIG.

"If E did not occur, then A would pay N\cdot F. If E is the event “ABC defaults on its bonds,” then A and B have entered into a credit default swap where A is short ( DEFAULT ) on ABC bonds and B is long ( NO DEFAULT ). Thus, we can think in terms of a unified price for both sides of the trade and consider how the expected payout for each side of the trade changes as that price changes ( BASED UPON THE CHANCE OF DEFAULT ).

Expected Payout As A Function Of Price

As mentioned above, the contingent payouts to the parties are a function of the fee. This fee is in turn a function of each party’s subjective valuation of the probability that E will actually occur( IN THIS IT'S LIKE INSURANCE ACTUARIAL TABLES ). For example, if A thinks that E will occur with a probability of \frac{1}{2}, then A will accept any fee less than .5 since A’s subjective expected payout under that assumption is N (\frac{1}{2}(1 - F) - \frac{1}{2}F ) = N (\frac{1}{2} - F). If B thinks that E will occur with a probability of \frac {1}{4}, then B will accept any fee greater than .25 since his expected payout is N (\frac{3}{4}F - \frac{1}{4}(1 - F)) = N(F - \frac{1}{4} ). Thus, A and B have a bargaining range between .25 and .5. And because each perceives the trade to have a positive payout upon termination within that bargaining range, they will transact ( THEY BASE THEIR ACTUAL INVESTMENT ON THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURING IN THEIR OPINION ). Unfortunately for one of them, only one of them is correct ( THIS IS WHERE PEOPLE FEEL IT'S LIKE GAMBLING AND NOT LIKE INSURANCE ). After many such transactions occur, market participants might choose to report the fees at which they transact ( ON AN INDEX ). This allows C and D to reference the fee at which the A-B transaction occurred. This process repeats itself and eventually market prices will develop ( FORMING AN INDEX, AND, POSSIBLY, AN EXCHANGE ).

Assume that A and B think the probability of E occurring is p_A and p_B respectively. If A has positive exposure and B has negative, then in general the subjective expected payouts for A and B are N (p_A - F) and N ( F - p_B) respectively. If we plot the expected payout as a function of F, we get the following:

payout-v-fee4

The red line indicates the bargaining range. Thus, we can describe each participant’s expected payout in terms of the fee charged for exposure( TRUE ). This will allow us to compare the returns on fixed fee derivatives to other financial assets, and ultimately plot a demand curve for fixed fee derivatives as a function of their price ( TRUE )."

It is important to understand each point as he goes along, so that you can see that the investment has defined terms, and is thus Priceable and Saleable.

Why do I believe that this is so important? Because I do not believe that these investments are that complex. I believe that it is very easy to explain the purpose and risk of these investments, even to people who do not have the ability to understand how the CHANCE OR POSSIBILITY OF THE RISK is determined, which is where the real complexity is located.

Hence, I believe that Fraud, Negligence, Fiduciary Mismanagement, and Collusion, are the main problems associated with these investments in the real world. For example, the iffy nature of the models used to determine the Chance or Possibility of the Risk were known, and all that needed to be explained to a buyer is just that. The methods are iffy.

Stop looking at the investments for the cause of this crisis. It's a charade.

Thursday, November 27, 2008

"Here’s an interesting thought: saving Bear Stearns increased risk in the financial system"

From Alphaville, an excellent and very important post by Sam Jones:

"A systemic risk counterfactual

Here’s an interesting thought: saving Bear Stearns increased risk in the financial system.

From Bank of America:

…the support of Bear Stearns appears to have unintentionally exacerbated the systemic risk of the Lehman Brothers’ default as short-term investors did not reduce their exposures leading up to the default despite the steady erosion in Lehman’s stock price and CDS spreads.

That leaves the potential interpretation that by supporting Bear Stearns, systemic risk from its default was postponed, but in having done so, unintentionally that action exacerbated the systemic risk resulting from the Lehman Brothers’ default.

After Bear Stearns, counterparties to banks were lulled into a false sense of security — assuming that default risks were reduced - or at least recovery rates increased - by a sort of faintly implicit guarantee from the US government against too-big-to-fail banks.

The principle example that would support that being the collapse of Reserve Primary — the money market giant which broke the buck the week LEH went under. Reserve Primary failed because it had bought a lot of commercial paper issued by Lehman. Commercial paper is, of course, unsecured.

Anyway, here’s what happened to the commercial paper issuance of both Bear and LEH in the runup to bankruptcy:

CP

And the after-effects of Lehman’s collapse:

…money fund investors responded to the “breaking of the buck” issue at the Reserve Fund by withdrawing funds from “Prime” funds and placing most of those proceeds in Treasury or Government-only money market funds. That’s the 21st century equivalent of a “bank run,” and its consequences contributed to the severe freezing up of interbank lending in September and October.

Money Market fund values

Here's my comment:

  1. Nov 27 16:27Posted by Don the libertarian Democrat [report]

    "After Bear Stearns, counterparties to banks were lulled into a false sense of security — assuming that default risks were reduced - or at least recovery rates increased - by a sort of faintly implicit guarantee from the US government against too-big-to-fail banks."

    My only disagreement with this is that the implicit guarantee had been in effect since the S & L Crisis. Although there was a chance of not being bailed out, as Lehman showed, the underlying belief was that the government could not allow large and interconnected financial institutions to fail. This was so well understood, that there was really no Plan B for these large institutions.

    From my perspective, the reaction to Lehman was panic at the thought that the government wouldn't intervene, and that there was no real Plan B.

    I think that the idea that the people involved in this belief were adherents of zero government intervention on principle has been proven false. Rather, they believe that the government and Fed are an essential backstop to our financial system. Simply because people try to get around regulations or have them abolished for their own ends, doesn't entail that they don't welcome and depend upon government when it suits their interests. Free market rhetoric is very useful when you're trying to get the government out of your way, but it's not a binding contract on future behavior or behavior in other circumstances.

    Phil Gramm and others might have actually believed their rhetoric, but the people with the real money are not so foolish as to not believe and expect that when they could really use government help, they damn well better get it. Surely actions speak louder than words, and the actions, after Lehman, said, "For God's sake help us, and don't bother mouthing nostrums about the free market, because if we go down we're taking you with us. Did you think we gave you all those donations for your eloquent defense of principles?"

Thursday, November 20, 2008

"Ambac said that it expected to make “positive adjustments” to its mark-to-market and impairment reserves as a result of the settlements"

I'm interested in Ambac because of this Alphaville post. Here's the recent reaction to a downgrade from the NY Times:

"The big bond insurer Ambac Financial Group said Wednesday that it had agreed to pay $1 billion in cash to counterparties to cancel default protection on $3.5 billion of collateralized debt obligations.

Ambac said the settlements should improve the capital position of its insurance unit, the Ambac Assurance Corporation, which lost its AAA rating on its debt in June because of its exposure to mortgage-backed debt.

“My immediate focus as Ambac’s new C.E.O. is to restore confidence in our balance sheet through aggressive risk reduction,” David Wallis, Ambac’s chief executive, said in a statement. “Ambac has consistently emphasized that in this period of extreme uncertainty in the capital markets, the de-risking and de-leveraging of our balance sheet is our highest priority.”

Once again, Flight From Risk.

"Earlier Wednesday, Standard & Poor’s cut its ratings on Ambac Financial and its insurance unit by three notches, to A, saying the company remained exposed to heavy losses from mortgage-backed securities. Ambac’s shares fell by a third following the S.&P. downgrade.

Ambac said that it expected to make “positive adjustments” to its mark-to-market and impairment reserves as a result of the settlements, and that the move should improve its standing in capital models at rating agencies.

“It’s a positive deal for Ambac,” David Havens, a desk analyst at UBS, told Reuters. “At the end of the day Ambac would probably have had to pay more than $3.5 billion to its counterparties, though that would have happened over a longer period of time.”

Here's my comment:

So:
1) Ambac’s credit rating was downgraded, so:
2) It had to meet higher capital requirements, so:
3) They bought back some insurance policies for less than their full payout price, thereby getting their debt limit down and so saving them from putting up more capital, but they did have to buy the policies out
Is that it?
And the people getting the cash for a possible higher payout later got, what, a tax deduction?

— Posted by Don the libertarian Democrat

Unlike Alphaville, the NY Times doesn't respond to posts.

Here's from Bloomberg:

"Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Ambac Financial Group Inc., the second-largest bond insurer by outstanding guarantees, agreed to pay $1 billion in cash to cancel default protection on $3.5 billion of collateralized debt obligations, further freeing itself from the largest source of losses in its industry.

The settlement will result in positive adjustments to the Ambac's mark-to-market and impairment reserves, and improve its standing in rating-firm models, according to a statement today from the New York-based company.

Ambac and rivals including Syncora Holdings Ltd. and FGIC Corp., after being stripped of AAA ratings because of their CDO guarantees, have been able to cancel some of their contracts on mortgage-tied CDOs at discounts to their projected losses. In some cases, the banks with the protection also have benefited, after marking down the guarantees to reflect the insurers' declining creditworthiness amid surging U.S. foreclosures.

``My immediate focus as Ambac's new CEO is to restore confidence in our balance sheet through aggressive risk reduction,'' Chief Executive Officer David Wallis said in the statement."

Same basic story.

"Ambac's ``exposures in the U.S. residential mortgage sector and particularly the related collateralized debt obligation structures have been a source of significant and comparatively greater-than-competitor losses and will continue to expose the company'' to potentially greater-than-expected losses, Standard & Poor's said in downgrading the company earlier today.

CDOs repackage assets such as mortgage bonds and buyout loans into new debt with varying risks. The debt, much of which was tied to subprime-mortgage securities, has been the largest source of more than $966 billion of writedowns and credit losses reported since the start of last year by global financial firms.

Ambac today fell below $1 a share for the first time since going public in 1991 after its insurance rating was cut three levels to A by S&P. The shares declined 38 cents to 76 cents as of 4:15 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, though they rose as high as $1.09 in late trading.

The shares are down 97 percent over the past 12 months.

Moody's Investors Service cut Ambac on Nov. 6 to Baa1, two steps lower than S&P's current ranking, prompting the bond insurer to post collateral and terminate contracts by shifting cash from its guarantee unit to its investment division."

Now, I want to follow Ambac because Alphaville believes that its whole mode of insuring bonds is dead, and this fascinates me.

Saturday, November 8, 2008

"What did surprise him, though, was that Lehman’s collapse had been allowed to happen in the first place."

I know Felix Salmon has been on this, but I highly recommend this post on FT about the bankruptcy of Lehman in Britain:

"as the bank collapsed and his team took over the European leg of the biggest and most complex bankruptcy in history."

Wow. I didn't realize this.

"In many countries, bankruptcies are handled by lawyers, but in the UK, the lead roles go to accountants."

I didn't know this.

"if Lehman was a global enterprise in health, in bankruptcy each of its regional operations would face its own set of legal rights and responsibilities."

Fascinating.

"There are two basic forms of insolvency. The first and more common is cashflow insolvency. This is when a company finds itself unable to pay its debts as they fall due. The second is balance-sheet insolvency, in which liabilities outweigh assets. Lehman’s European operations fell into the first category."

Okay. It can't pay its bills.

"Like many global corporations, the bank swept all the cash from its regional operations back to New York each night and released the funds the next day. The Friday sweep had taken about $8bn out of London. Without cash, the business could not meet its financial obligations on Monday morning. A thriving business of more than 5,000 staff and investments worth billions of dollars was suddenly flat broke."

Unreal. $8 billion gone, never to return. Weird. See Felix Salmon here. Also here.

"Every day, Lehman dealt with thousands of companies, other banks and investment funds. Opening another day’s London trading therefore ran the risk of destabilising the world’s markets. Equally pressing, trading without the cash on hand to meet obligations – technically, trading when insolvent – is against the law."

Again. Unreal.

"There are more than 200 legal entities in the bank’s European operations. The PwC team needed to identify which pieces ran the whole business, which assets needed immediate protection and which would actually be insolvent as a result of a lack of cash. As the night wore on, the partners gradually began to realise the true scale of what they were taking on. Schwarzmann settled down to look at the standard group structure. “Wow,” he said, “that’s quite complicated.” Andrew Wright, Lehman’s European finance director, turned round and answered: ”That’s just the summary.”

These quotes are self-explanatory.

"At Lehman, that meant Lomas’s team had to act fast on a number of fronts – from dealing with more than 50 exchanges around the world to persuading the contracted canteen cooks to keep coming in. Harder still, they were starting from cold."

I think that this means that they had to take on this immense and complicated bankruptcy immediately. Wow.

"Immediate tasks included securing the IT operations, notifying the thousands of exchanges and other counterparties which the bank dealt with, assessing the risks involved in its open trades, starting the search for cash, figuring out the way each division operated, discussing sales of business units with potential bidders and talking with the staff. Then would come the detailed work – still ongoing – of unwinding the bank’s vast trading positions and unravelling exactly who was owed what and by whom."

Just think of this.

"Having run most of its accounts through its New York parent, Lehman Europe had few deposit accounts of its own. Nor could it set up any with another bank, since that bank was likely to be a creditor or debtor and could try to seize any money parked with it. In the end, the Bank of England came to the rescue. The bankrupt bank now has more than 60 accounts with the central bank, covering currencies ranging from US dollars to Chinese renminbi to Norwegian krona. It expects to open still more."

So, in essence, a business must be created in order to bankrupt itself.

"On average, the bank was responsible for 12 per cent of all trades on the London Stock Exchange. Its prime brokerage business, which serves hedge funds, was one of the biggest in London and held some $40bn of client assets."

12% of the LSE frozen.

"By Wednesday, Lomas and Team were in a position to tell staff that a $100m loan would cover their salaries. Now the focus could shift to trying to sell as much of the business as possible and trying to unwind its trading positions."

Good luck.

"For many Lehman traders, the need to unwind the company intelligently meant a new pay package with a hefty bonus component if they managed to strike deals that were advantageous to the Lehman estate. Pearson knows he might come in for outside criticism for doling out these bonuses, since all funds are now owed to the bank’s thousands of creditors. But he defends the move. “It’s exactly what I did at Enron, so I knew exactly how I wanted to handle this. You’ve got a bunch of people here who know these markets so well, and with the right piece of information they can make you – or lose you – hundreds of millions of dollars,” he says. “The last thing you can afford to do in these circumstances is be cheap, because if you’re cheap, you can ruin the ship for a hap’orth of tar.”

These employees, who are going to eventually be terminated, are in a pretty good bargaining position.

"The juddering halt caused by the bankruptcy meant that the previous three days’ trades were not fully settled. They weren’t even fully recorded in the bank’s systems. This wasn’t an unusual time-lag, but one not helped by the fact that trading volumes had simultaneously shot up because of market panic, caused in part by fears about Lehman’s health. The unsettled trades caused chaos in the markets as stock exchanges began to work through the deals to reach settlement. The securities traded by Lehman were simply left hanging during some of the most volatile days ever seen in the markets."

Unreal.

"Then there were the cancellations, where counterparties such as banks or hedge funds with whom Lehman had traded rushed to trigger legal clauses to extricate themselves from some deals. Thousands of e-mail cancellations hit the bank. Either for itself or its clients, the bank held billions in securities such as stocks, currencies, commodities, bonds and various derivatives. On Friday, Lehman traders went home comfortable they had protected their risk on these holdings. Monday brought the realisation that the broken deals meant many hedges were no longer in place: the bank now had a book of holdings at risk of being crushed by the wild market swings."

It's a snowball effect from hell.

"To begin unwinding the “book”, Pearson called on outside help and used other banks’ trading teams operating under confidentiality agreements. These teams conducted the sales so the market would not know they were Lehman positions. If dealers had known that a particular trade was linked to the stricken bank, they could have tried to profit by pushing the price down, knowing Lehman had to sell."

They had to pretend they were someone else in order to avoid getting hosed. Too much.

"In fact, some of these trades actually ended up making the bank hundreds of millions of pounds as the team rode the rollercoaster market moves. “We ended up catching both sides of the market,” says Pearson. “We decided to close out some long positions [assets held in the expectation that prices would rise] when the market went up. We had some short positions [designed to profit from price falls], too, and the market then went down.” He won’t give exact figures but says: “Some positions that we moved, we made gains that exceeded the entire earnings of one of the divisions last year.”

That's pretty funny.

"Then there were the client positions, where the bank held assets on behalf of its customers, or stored them with another bank. Since Lehman’s collapse, hedge funds and others have been issuing increasingly frantic calls for the return of their assets – to no avail. This has produced some high-profile victims such as Luqman Arnold, head of the Olivant fund, whose entire 2.78 per cent stake in UBS is held by Lehman.

Certain hedge funds have claimed they are at risk of collapse because of trapped assets, which they cannot trade nor effectively hedge against, but PwC has warned it will take months before they can be returned. Even six weeks into the bankruptcy, the administrators were waiting on some of the 97 banks holding Lehman assets to clarify just what they held."

Wow. You don't know what the worth is of what you have, and you can't do anything with it.

"It’s all complicated further by a process known as rehypothecation, which affects a substantial proportion of the hedge fund assets held by the bank. In these cases, the funds pledged collateral (usually stocks or other securities) in return for a loan, while agreeing to the bank’s putting that collateral back in the market to make extra profits. With the music stopped, the hedge funds owed Lehman money in exchange for the collateral. To honour that, Lehman must itself go back into the market and unwind deals in which it reused the assets, paying out cash to get them back."

Oh hell no. Not another bizarre term to understand.

Okay.
1) Hedge Fund gives assets to Lehman.
2) Lehman gives money to Hedge Fund
3) Lehman uses assets to make money from third party.

Now:
1) Lehman pays money to get assets back from third party.
2) Hedge Fund gives money back to Lehman for assets.

“There are so many trades that need to be closed and then evaluations validated and reconciled before we can say, ’are you a debtor or creditor’,” says Pearson. “You can’t form views without all the facts. The danger is if you form a view on two or three facts, that a fourth fact could fundamentally change your conclusion. And in a number of the positions that we’ve been looking at, we’ve discovered a fourth fact and we’ve gone from the situation being black to it being white in terms of the resolution.” He adds: “We don’t know if there’s a fifth fact, by the way, because this diligence exercise has never been done before.”

I'm sorry, but here I'm lost.

"Confusion began to clear in the following days. Pearson and Lomas used their contacts to find the $100m – unsecured – emergency funding. Pearson and Jervis began the work of unwinding the bank’s vast and complex trading positions. Schwarzmann pursued outside interest in the investment banking and trading teams and in the second week secured a deal – with Nomura, for just $2 in cash. That deal put the Japanese bank in charge of half the staff, while allowing PwC to keep working on unwinding Lehman’s trading book. The arrangement had two advantages: Lomas’s team retained, for the time being, the expertise it needed, and Nomura got a bargain on an established London-based investment bank.

It’s not clear how long this arrangement will last – nor is it clear how long the PwC administrators have until creditors get antsy enough to sue for their money. "

I guess this qualifies as a clearing.

"So far, only one hedge fund has gone to court to try to speed up the return of its assets. The judge told it to give Lomas and his team more time. This is likely to be the response most creditors receive for some time, not least because who owes what, and to whom, is still far from clear. The final goal is to get as much money to creditors as possible. Only when the lawsuits stop rolling in will Lomas and his team know they are done."

Good luck.

"In the end, is Lomas surprised by the scale and complexity of what he is now dealing with? He thinks carefully. Not in terms of complexity, no. What did surprise him, though, was that Lehman’s collapse had been allowed to happen in the first place. “I was surprised that it had gone down and that authorities elsewhere in the world hadn’t found a way to avoid it going down – precisely because I could anticipate the complexity that there would be here.

“Surely others had seen just how big and ugly this was going to be?”

I think that this makes perfect sense. Calling chaos theory. The uncertainty thrown into the markets must have been terrifying to some people. Letting this happen was a dreadful mistake. The government not stepping in was foolish, and we can see why. There are some market processes, involving legal and trading complexities, that can cause terrifying chaos as they are sorted out. The market can't handle this on its own, any more than it can handle it without courts.

This post by Felix Salmon seems wrong in retrospect.

Here's a post from Bronte Capital about this:

"The deleveraging of debt markets following the Lehman failure left everyone (maybe except Uncle Warren) hoarding cash. [It also ran the Federal Reserve out of balance sheet in a single day – something that I will come back to in a later post…]

Lehman’s failure cracked this market – and it did so because the UK lacked the basic depression era legislation (the 1934 Act) and had encouraged reckless leverage by reducing capital requirements to low levels.

It was the failures of London that made Paulson’s decision wrong. I didn’t see it at the time – and nor did he. However I have never been CEO of a broker-dealer – and Paulson has. So one bad mark for me and three for him. I keep score…"

What capital levels? They were broke?