Showing posts with label Somalia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Somalia. Show all posts

Saturday, May 23, 2009

“We have jihad, too,” said Sheik Omar, a tall man with a long beard and warm eyes. “But it’s inner jihad, a struggle to be pure.”

TO BE NOTED: From the NY Times:

The New York Times

The Sufis drove the Shabab out of Dusa Marreb last year. More Photos >



Islamist Versus IslamistSlide Show

Islamist Versus Islamist



Michael Kamber for The New York Times

Members of a Sufi militia in Dusa Merrab, Somalia, have taken up arms to fight against the Shabab, one of the most fearsome extremist Muslim groups in Africa. More Photos »



"For Somalia, Chaos Breeds Religious War

DUSA MARREB, Somalia — From men of peace, the Sufi clerics suddenly became men of war.

Their shrines were being destroyed. Their imams were being murdered. Their tolerant beliefs were under withering attack.

So the moderate Sufi scholars recently did what so many other men have chosen to do in anarchic Somalia: they picked up guns and entered the killing business, in this case to fight back against the Shabab, one of the most fearsome extremist Muslim groups in Africa.

“Clan wars, political wars, we were always careful to stay out of those,” said Sheik Omar Mohamed Farah, a Sufi leader. “But this time, it was religious.”

In the past few months, a new axis of conflict has opened up in Somalia, an essentially governmentless nation ripped apart by rival clans since 1991. Now, in a definitive shift, fighters from different clans are forming alliances and battling one another along religious lines, with deeply devout men on both sides charging into firefights with checkered head scarves, assault rifles and dusty Korans.

It is an Islamist versus Islamist war, and the Sufi scholars are part of a broader moderate Islamist movement that Western nations are counting on to repel Somalia’s increasingly powerful extremists. Whether Somalia becomes a terrorist incubator and a genuine regional threat — which is already beginning to happen, with hundreds of heavily armed foreign jihadists flocking here to fight for the Shabab — or whether this country finally steadies itself and ends the years of hunger, misery and bloodshed may hinge on who wins these battles in the next few months.

“We’re on terra incognito,” said Rashid Abdi, an analyst at the International Crisis Group, a nonprofit group that tries to prevent deadly conflicts. “Before, everything was clan. Now we are beginning to see the contours of an ideological, sectarian war in Somalia for the first time, and that scares me.”

For two years, Islamist insurgents waged a fierce war against Somalia’s transitional government and the thousands of Ethiopian troops protecting it. In January, the insurgents seemed to get what they wanted: the Ethiopians pulled out; an unpopular president walked away; and moderate Islamists took the helm of the internationally recognized transitional government of Somalia, raising hopes for peace.

But since then, the verdict on the moderates has been mixed. In the past two weeks, the Shabab have routed government forces in Mogadishu, the capital. The tiny bit of the city the government controls is shrinking, block by block, and Ethiopian troops have once again crossed the border and are standing by. As many as 150 people have been killed, and the relentless mortar fire has spawned streams of shellshocked civilians trudging into the arid countryside, where they face the worst drought in a decade.

If Mogadishu falls, Somalia will be dragged deeper into the violent morass that the United Nations, the United States and other Western countries have tried hard to stanch, and the country will fragment even further into warring factions, with radical Islamists probably on top.

But out here, on the wind-whipped plains of Somalia’s central region, it is a different story. The moderates are holding their own, and the newly minted Sufi militia is about the only local group to go toe-to-toe with the Shabab and win.

The several-hundred-square-mile patch of central Somalia that the Sufis control is not nearly as strategic as Mogadishu. But the Sufis have achieved what the transitional government has not: grass-roots support, which explains how they were able to move so quickly from a bunch of men who had never squeezed a trigger before — a rarity in Somalia — into a cohesive fighting force backed by local clans.

Many Somalis say that the Sufi version of Islam, which stresses tolerance, mysticism and a personal relationship with God, is more congruent with their traditions than the Wahhabi Islam espoused by the Shabab, which calls for strict separation of the sexes and harsh punishments like amputations and stonings.

“We see the Sufis as part of us,” said Elmi Hersi Arab, an elder in the battered central Somalia town of Dusa Marreb. “They grew up here.”

The Sufis also tapped into an anti-Shabab backlash. The Shabab, who recruit from all clans, and, according to American officials, are linked to Al Qaeda, controlled Dusa Marreb for the better part of last year. Residents described that period as a reign of terror, with the Shabab assassinating more than a dozen village elders and even beheading two women selling tea.

“We respected the Shabab for helping drive out the Ethiopians,” said one woman in Dusa Marreb who asked not to be identified for safety reasons. “But when the Ethiopians left and the Shabab kept the war going, that to us didn’t make sense.”

The Sufis, a loosely organized, religious brotherhood, also drawing from many different clans, had studiously avoided getting gummed up in Somalia’s back-and-forth clan battles, often no more than thin cover for power struggles between businessmen and warlords. But in November, Sheik Omar said, the Shabab shot dead several Sufi students. The next month, the Shabab tore apart Sufi shrines.

A spike of panic shot through the Sufi schools, where young men like Siyad Mohammed Ali were studying Islamic philosophy. “We had never told the Shabab how to worship,” he said. “But now we were under attack.”

Men like Mr. Siyad became the backbone of the new Sufi militia, which got a crate of AK-47s from one set of clan elders or a sputtering armored truck from another. In December, the Sufis, whose organization is called Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jama, which roughly translates as the followers of the Prophet Muhammad, drove the Shabab out of Dusa Marreb. Since then, the Sufis have defended their territory several times against Shabab incursions.

Hassan Sheik Mohamud, the dean of a college in Mogadishu, said the rise of the Sufis was “absolutely, totally new historically.”

“They had a reputation for being peaceful,” he said.

The Sufis are loosely allied to the transitional government, which has promised to rule Somalia with some form of Islamic law. The president, Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed, is a bit of an enigma, coming from a long line of Sufi clerics, yet rising to power in 2006 as part of an Islamist alliance with a decidedly Wahhabi bent. He has said that he wants women to play an important role in government, but several prominent Somali women said that during a recent meeting, he would not look them in the eye.

Many Somalis say that Sheik Sharif is making the same mistake his predecessors made, spending more time riding around foreign capitals in a Mercedes than working Mogadishu’s streets to cultivate local allies.

Out here, the Sufis are moving ahead with their own small administration, meeting with United Nations officials and running patrols. At night, in a circle under a tree, they rest their AK-47s on their Korans, drop their foreheads to the earth and pray.

“We have jihad, too,” said Sheik Omar, a tall man with a long beard and warm eyes. “But it’s inner jihad, a struggle to be pure.”

Since the start of 2007, fighting has killed at least 17,700 civilians and driven more than 1 million from their homes

TO BE NOTED: From Reuters:

"
Fighting in Mogadishu for second day
Sat May 23, 2009 3:53am EDT
* African Union calls for sanctions on Eritrea, no-fly zone

* Rebel reinforcements expected in capital

* At least 45 people killed on Friday in heavy clashes

(Recasts with fighting, AU call for sanctions on Eritrea)

By Mohamed Ahmed

MOGADISHU, May 23 (Reuters) - Government forces fought hardline Islamist insurgents on Saturday in Somalia's capital for a second day running to try to regain control of the city.

Heavy fighting killed at least 45 people, more than half of them civilians, and wounded nearly 200 on Friday in one of the bloodiest days of combat in Mogadishu in months.

Neighbouring states and Western governments fear Somalia, which has been mired in civil war for 18 years, could become a haven for militants linked to al Qaeda unless the new government under President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed can defeat them.

Residents said there was sporadic gunfire on Saturday but feared the fighting would intensify after reports of rebel reinforcements coming to confront a government offensive.

Islamist insurgents took up arms in 2007 to drive out Ethiopian troops propping up a Western-backed government which failed to wield control much of the Horn of Africa nation.

The Ethiopians withdrew at the start of 2009 and an Islamist president was elected in neighbouring Djibouti in January. But the insurgents have intensified attacks against the new administration and African Union peacekeepers in Mogadishu.

Somalia's government has accused Eritrea of supporting al Shabaab insurgents with planeloads of AK-47 assault rifles, rocket-propelled grenades and other weapons.



SANCTIONS, NO-FLY ZONE

The African Union stepped up pressure on the Horn of Africa nation late on Friday by calling for U.N. Security Council sanctions, a no fly-zone and sea blockade.

"(The United Nations Security Council should) impose sanctions against all those foreign actors, both within and outside the region, especially Eritrea, providing support to the armed groups," the 53-member body said in a statement.

Eritrea's president denies the charge and blames American agents for spreading lies to blacken his government's name.

Since the start of 2007, fighting has killed at least 17,700 civilians and driven more than 1 million from their homes. About 3 million Somalis survive on emergency food aid.

The United Nations refugee agency UNHCR says 49,000 people have fled fighting in Mogadishu in the past two weeks.

Al Shabaab, which Washington says has close ties to al Qaeda, and Islamist guerrilla group Hizbul Islam have been spearheading attacks on the government, allied militia and African Union peacekeepers.

Until Friday, pro-government forces had not looked strong enough to break Shabaab's grip on parts of Mogadishu.

But last week's defection of a veteran warlord with hundreds of fighters under his command may have prompted Ahmed to order the new offensive.

Defence Minister Mohamed Abdi Gandi said on Friday the fighting would go on until the insurgents were beaten.

Experts say pro-government forces will be hard-pushed to extend their reach to distant provinces, increasing the risk of protracted fighting in a country that has known little but violence and anarchy since a dictator was ousted in 1991.

An important figure in any reconciliation would be hardline opposition leader Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, who ran Mogadishu and much of southern Somalia alongside Ahmed in late 2006.

The two Islamists -- Aweys was always considered the more hardline -- split after Ahmed joined the peace process.

"Somalia has no government we recognise," Aweys told Reuters in an interview on Friday. [ID:nLM978588] "We should not be deceived by Westerners like Sharif."

"We shall defeat the government soon, God willing." (Writing by David Clarke; Editing by Richard Williams)"

Sunday, May 17, 2009

Last week, insurgent attacks killed more than 100 civilians and led at least 30,000 people to flee their homes

TO BE NOTED: From the NY Times:

"
Insurgents Are Said to Capture Somali Town

MOGADISHU, Somalia (AP) — Islamic insurgents sustained their offensive against the nation’s fragile government and captured a strategic southeastern town on Sunday, hours after a leader of another Islamic militia defected to the government, witnesses and officials said.

The defection of the militia leader, Sheik Yusuf Indahaadde, would be a major boost for Somalia’s weak government.

But the Islamic fighters, known as the Shabab, captured the important agricultural town of Jowhar, 55 miles northeast of Mogadishu, the capital, and a critical link to central Somalia, residents said. Government officials denied that Jowhar had fallen, but residents said the insurgents were in control.

The State Department says the Shabab is a terrorist organization with links to Al Qaeda, a charge the group denies.

Last week, insurgent attacks killed more than 100 civilians and led at least 30,000 people to flee their homes. There has been concern that the government may collapse if the fighting in Mogadishu persists.

There has been a lull in fighting here since Friday, but observers fear that if the insurgents seize Mogadishu, they will gain a haven in the Horn of Africa.

In Jowhar, a resident, Hamdi Da’ud, said he saw the bodies of three pro-government militiamen on the street after the militia fought insurgents for 20 minutes. Both sides fired machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades, he said.

Information Minister Farhan Ali Mohamud said that the Islamic insurgents had not captured Jowhar but that the fighting was continuing.

President Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed’s government directly controls only a few blocks of Mogadishu and the border town of El Berde. But Mr. Ahmed has allies among the militias that control much of central Somalia and pockets of the south. The Shabab controls much of southern Somalia; northern Somalia is run by two autonomous governments that are opposed to the Islamists but are not allied with the Ahmed government.

Mr. Mohamud also told The Associated Press that Mr. Indahaadde, the Islamic militant leader, defected to the government side with all his militiamen late Saturday.

Until his reported defection, Mr. Indahaadde led the militia of a faction of a key Islamic insurgent group, the Islamic Party. The leader of that faction, confirmed that his group would fight alongside government forces.

The Islamic Party has been split over whether to work with Mr. Ahmed’s government now that it aims to implement Shariah law. Mr. Amey and Mr. Indahaadde had been pushing for the party to join the government."

Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Philippines had the largest number of new IDPs in 2008. Some 600,000 people fled their homes

TO BE NOTED:


New Figures, Analysis Suggest Internal Displacement on the Rise

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Sharia has become the closest thing to a set of rules governing Somali society and was passed as national law in parliament last week

TO BE NOTED: From the FT:

"
President raises hopes for Somalia

By William Wallis

Published: April 27 2009 17:57 | Last updated: April 27 2009 17:57

Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, president of Somalia since January, landed in office with a weak hand and a seemingly impossible task.

Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed in Mogadishu
Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed in Mogadishu: he says there has been a lack of leadership in his country
He controls only fragments of Somali territory and even these are vulnerable to attack by Islamist militias (once his allies). To extend the writ of the trans­itional government and restore stability and services he must neutralise warlords, insurgents and now pirates responsible for turning Somalia since 1991 into the archetype of state failure. Yet he has few basic tools of state to hand.

Nonetheless, the 44-year-old former schoolteacher from a family of Sufi clerics notched up a breakthrough last week, securing $213m (€162m, £145m) of backing at a donor conference in Brussels both for African peacekeepers and for a new national security force. Hundreds of millions of dollars of humanitarian and reconstruction aid could follow.

The outcome of the conference has raised hopes that for the first time since the mid-1990s, when Mogadishu warlords forced UN peacekeepers into humiliating retreat, there are the makings of a concerted effort to reassemble Somalia’s broken parts.

“There has always been this issue of the international community not being forthcoming enough and not being forthcoming enough at the right time,” Sheikh Ahmed told the Financial Times. “Secondly, there has been a lack of leadership that has been ready on the Somali side to seize the opportunity ... Today we believe these two things have come together,” he said in an interview accompanied by his Oxford-educated foreign minister, Mohamed Abdullahi Omar.

The fresh impetus derives partly from Somali pirates. Their proliferating attacks on a busy trading route have defied a fleet of naval vessels from around the world, pointing up the need to act on land as well as sea.

Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, president of a country that has had 15 governments in the past 18 years, explains why his rule will last longer

It makes little sense, Mr Omar argued, that the pirates can earn as much as $150m a year in ransoms while the government has been unable to raise a fraction of that to curtail them. If that situation is beginning to change, it is partly thanks to budding confidence in Sheikh Ahmed.

His profile is very different from the warlords and politicians associated with 15 prior attempts to create a viable government since 1991. First stirred into opposing Somalia’s myriad profiteers by the kidnapping of one of his students, he rose to prominence as leader of an alliance of sharia courts, the Islamic Courts Union.

ICU militias captured Mogadishu in 2006 and for six months were able to restore order to much of southern Somalia, enforcing at times puritanical forms of Islamic rule. This virtually eliminated piracy.

However, Washington was preoccupied then with alleged links between al-Qaeda and extremists within the ICU and gave the green light to neighbouring Ethiopia (which had its own reasons) to oust them.

Events turned full circle when Ethiopian troops withdrew, their former warlord ally resigned as head of the UN-backed transitional government and Sheikh Ahmed emerged from exile in January as Somalia’s new leader, elected by parliament.

He has brought with him moderate elements of the Islamist resistance movement and is attempting to build further alliances within Somalia’s complex web of clans.

PIRACY GROWS

Somali pirates have demonstrated the growing threat they continue to pose to shipping with two attacks more than 500 miles off Somalia’s coast, writes Robert Wright in London.

On Saturday, the MSC Napoli, a cruise liner operated by Geneva-based Mediterranean Shipping Company with 1,500 people on board, repelled an attack several hundred miles off the Somali coast.

Separately, on Sunday the Yemeni navy fought pirates who had attacked four of the country’s oil tankers at a point where the Gulf of Aden, which separates Yemen from Somalia, is about 700 miles wide.

The attacks highlight how Somalia’s pirates now regularly launch attacks far out of their traditional areas of operation. A large military presence in the Gulf of Aden since the end of last year and seafarers’ increasing knowledge about how to resist attacks had until recent weeks driven down the number of successful pirate operations.

But the government is still opposed by radical al Shabab militias active across southern Somalia with support from foreign jihadists.

Sheikh Ahmed says he is prepared to accommodate any willing party in reconciliation efforts, something that could yet make western donors uncomfortable. His reconstruction plans hinge initially on establishing Islamic sharia, something that is both “practically and psychologically” vital to “bringing people on board for the reconstruction of the state”, he says.

Sharia has become the closest thing to a set of rules governing Somali society and was passed as national law in parliament last week. Sheikh Ahmed wants to build up a national army, police and judiciary to enforce it and take on the pirates and other elements opposed to peace.

“Preparations in terms of the readiness of the public for peace are gathering pace. In parallel, if we are also able to get the security forces on the ground operational, we believe it will be almost a natural process for the rule of law and the administration to reach those parts where they don’t already exist,” he said. “There will come a time when those who act illegally either have to leave or ... give themselves up.”

Judging by the crowds who travelled across Europe to see him in Brussels, he carries significant goodwill from the Somali diaspora. Last month his government raised $1.5m in duties at the Mogadishu port. On Friday it passed a national budget, the first since 1991.

These are small beginnings. But there is a whiff of hope Sheikh Ahmed may succeed, where countless others failed, in converting them to something bigger.

And:
Transcript of FT interview with Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, president of Somalia

Published: April 28 2009 01:37 | Last updated: April 28 2009 01:37

There have been 15 attempts to create a functioning government in Somalia since the overthrow of dictator Siad Barre in 1991. None of them have come close to working. Overrun by warlords and Islamist insurgents, the country is in the grips of another potential famine.

Proliferating acts of piracy on one of the world’s busiest trading routes off the Somali coast have forced up shipping insurance costs and are affecting global commodity markets. But they are also focusing international attention on the need for stability on land as well as sea.

Before Ethiopia invaded in 2006 Sheikh Ahmed was the leader of the Islamic Courts Union, an alliance of Islamic militias that during a six month period came closer than any other body to re-establishing order. In January he returned to Somalia from exile, and was elected by a UN-backed transitional parliament to lead the country out of chaos.

Last week at an international donors conference in Brussels, he won $213m of backing for African peacekeepers and for his plans to build a national security force, raising hopes that finally a concerted effort to put Somalia back together again is under way.

William Wallis, Financial Times Africa editor, interviewed Sheikh Ahmed at his hotel in Brussels after the conference.

Financial Times: What is the significance of today’s events for Somalia?

Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed: What happened today is very important for two reasons. Firstly, there has always been this issue of the international community not being forthcoming enough and not being forthcoming at the right time. Secondly there has been a lack of leadership on the Somali side to seize the opportunity and establish a partnership with the international community. Today we believe these two things have come together.

FT: How do you plan to go about using the goodwill that has been generated at an international level, and the cash that is now coming with it?

SSSA: The funds and the political support need to be translated into actions on the ground first and foremost with regards to security. Security has to be established. Then it is important to translate this security and political will into actions that affect the needs of the public and to help reconstruction, education, and all the elements that give normality to life. The public must feel the change and see the change.

FT: But how will you be able to expand the writ of your government from what appears to be the very small part of Somalia you control?

SSSA: There are already many provinces … where government support and structures are present. Where our administration and reach exists, the delivery of services and justice should be strengthened and reinforced. Where it does not exist yet, these areas we must stretch our reach to.

FT: Will this necessarily involve force?

SSSA: Preparations in terms of the readiness of the public for peace are gathering pace by the day, and are already substantially established. In parallel, if we are also able to get the security forces on the ground and operational and these two forces are able to come together we believe it will be almost a natural process for the rule of law and the administration to reach those parts where they don’t already exist.

FT: How formidable do you consider the forces your government are up against?

SSSA: We believe that in essence there is no logic and no sustainable basis for armed forces opposing the government. The only options open for these opposing forces will be to either come into the reconciliation process either as the government or as opposition. Or, to return to civilian life, into their homes and into normal livelihoods.

FT: They seem pretty determined from the outside and at least a minority of them have backing from another pretty determined bunch [of people] headquartered out of the tribal areas of Pakistan [al-Qaeda].

SSSA: Once the government is strong enough and is fully on the ground there will come a time when those who act illegally either have to leave or will have to give themselves up. That moment will come.

FT: How far are you prepared to accommodate these forces in order to absorb them into the reconciliation process?

SSSA: We are prepared in a major way to accommodate and negotiate but the essential factor is there must be dialogue; there must be negotiation for that to happen.

FT: Are you already talking for example to [radical Islamic cleric] Hassan Dawir Aweys, or some of the leaders of the al Shabab militia?

SSSA: Not directly but many well-intentioned and well meaning Somalis are busy and engaged explaining to them the need for dialogue and peace. From our side they know and we have stated that we are ready for dialogue and negotiation.

FT: What do you make of the arrival in Mogadishu today [after more than two years in exile] of Mr Aweys?

SSSA: I think his return today will remind him that he left at a time when there was conflict and war and show him that today we are rebuilding peace. We believe he will choose to take part and support the peace process and re-establishment of security in the country.

FT: Do you consider him someone who is important in that process?

SSSA: There is no one who is not needed for this process of reconciliation and peace. Everyone is needed.

FT: How signficant is the recent passage in parliament of Sharia law in re-establishing state authority?

SSSA: It is very important for several reasons. One Sharia is a normal part of Muslim life and Muslim culture and tradition. Secondly there were people for whom this was a major factor, necessity, and in passing the bill and putting it through cabinet and parliament this enables us to show goodwill and to take that element out of the conflict and ensure it does not become an obstacle. It is part of the reconciliation process but also bringing people on board for the reconstruction of the state. Both psychologically and practically it is very important.

FT: How quickly can you bring back the court system? Is it something you can do very quickly given your experience at the head of the Islamic Courts Union in 2006?

SSSA: The government is actually very busy with that issue. It will need to absorb and take on experienced and knowledgeable people in that field.

FT: In 2006 the administration you were involved in was very effective in fighting piracy. Is that something you can reproduce now and what was the secret before?

SSSA: This is part and parcel of the security infrastructure and policies that we have. We believe that this will also be effective in tackling that issue successfully.

FT: Some of the countries [US, Ethiopia] that seemed very happy to see the back of you in 2006 when the Ethiopia invaded Somalia are now applauding you. Are these countries you can trust?

SSSA: Without a shadow of doubt we have to look forward and not back."

Monday, April 13, 2009

U.S. military is “considering attacks on pirate bases on land”

TO BE NOTED: From Enough:


Escalation (?) in Somalia

Printer-friendly version

A thoughtful post from Elizabeth Dickinson on Foreign Policy’s Passport blog highlights the alarming reports this morning that the U.S. military is “considering attacks on pirate bases on land” and asks:

Does the United States know what they're getting into? Piracy experts have long suggested that the root of the problem is indeed on land. But air strikes on Somali bases would be dangerously close to a U.S. military operation in Somalia -- the kind that the country has avoided since Blackhawk down in 1994.

Let's think hypothetically about what might happen if strikes go ahead. U.S. onland intervention will surely anger al Shabaab, the Islamist militant wing that controls an alarming percentage of Somali territory and is the biggest single threat to Somali stability. Already, the Somali government is struggling to convince the country that its relatively pro-Western stance is for the greater good. That argument will lose all weight if and when the U.S. starts airstrikes. Forget about the government's effectiveness, and forget about any hopes that al Shabaab will disarm. This would fuel the fire. No, we shouldn't kneel to the demands of al Shabaab, but nor should we ignore that their ire will be taken out on the already dilapidated Somali population.

Talk about an escalation.

I would argue that the issue is not whether we ‘anger’ al Shabaab or not, but the fact that such airstrikes would make it easier for al Shabaab to portray themselves as nationalists fighting off foreign intervention, just as they did with earlier Ethiopian incursions. At the end of the day, airstrikes are easy, coming up with a long-term strategy to help Somalia emerge from failed state status is the true task at hand, and robbing al Shabaab of its popular appeal must be part of that strategy.

N.B. Via the New York Times’ Lede blog, a “Live Piracy Map” from the International Maritime Bureau shows that there have been dozens of attacks involving hostages this year, with more than 200 hostages still being held by gangs of pirates in the Gulf of Aden.

John Norris contributed to this post."

Monday, March 30, 2009

Yusuf says he would rather risk death than live a life of certain poverty in Somaliland.

TO BE NOTED: From ReliefNet:

"Somalia: Somaliland youth risk death in search of better life


HARGEISA, 30 March 2009 (IRIN) - Harir Omar Yusuf, about to finish high school, should be choosing a degree course and deciding on a career direction; instead, he spends most of his time planning a perilous escape from his hometown of Hargeisa, capital of the self-declared republic of Somaliland in the northwest of Somalia, to Europe.

"As soon as I finish high school I will go there, because I have nothing to stay for in Somaliland," he told IRIN, adding that his parents could not afford university fees and he was not assured of a place even if they could.

Yusuf has many friends who have made the journey - first through Ethiopia, then Sudan and Libya and finally to Italy via the Mediterranean Sea - and are now living as illegal immigrants in Italy and other European nations. He also has many friends languishing in Sudanese or Libyan jails, arrested for entering the country illegally, and knows of many who died making the trip, but he remains determined.

Tens of thousands of Somalis also try to cross the Gulf of Aden into Yemen every year aboard small vessels run by people-traffickers operating from Somali ports; according to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), one out of every 20 people attempting the journey in 2007 died.

Yusuf says he would rather risk death than live a life of certain poverty in Somaliland.

Unemployment

"The issue of young people running away is very problematic in Somaliland," said Omer Ali Abdi, the director of the youth department in the Ministry of Youth and Sports. "Year after year, graduates from secondary schools are increasing and our universities just don't have the capacity to take in all of them - and even when they graduate from university, there is no guarantee they will get a job."

According to Ahmed Hashi Abdi, vice-minister in the Ministry of Planning and Coordination, only 10-20 percent of people under 35 are employed.

"Because it is unrecognised internationally, Somaliland has no access to bi-lateral funding, which has caused our economy to suffer, especially after the livestock ban of 1999, which destroyed the main source of income of most of our people," Abdi said. "For the same reason, international scholarships and higher education exchange programmes are not open to our students."

An outbreak of Rift Valley Fever in Saudi Arabia in 1999 resulted in a regional ban on imported livestock from Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, Kenya, and Djibouti; the ban on Somalia remains in place and now includes several other Middle Eastern nations.

After the ban, remittances became the main foreign exchange earner; thousands fled the country during an outbreak of war in 1988, and regularly send money to their families. The Ministry of Planning estimates remittances account for US$500 million - or about 80 percent of Somaliland's economy.

"When people leave the country legally, we are happy that they are able to send back money, but as much as possible we try to discourage young people from leaving illegally - then it becomes a matter of life and death and we cannot encourage that," Abdi said.

Despite the risks, many families scrimp and save to send their children on these journeys. Over the past year, Amina Rooble (not her real name) has spent more than $6,500 on transport, communication, paying traffickers and bribing prison officers, all in an effort to get her son Hashim to Italy.

Although his boat sank, Hashim survived and is now seeking asylum in Italy. "Even though my son was rescued, two other members of my family died on that boat," Rooble said.

Incentive to stay

The government and local NGOs have run campaigns to discourage young people from leaving, but according to Yahye Mohamoud Ahmed, head of the Somaliland National Youth Organisation NGO, unless the government can provide some motivation, young people will continue to escape in droves.

"They have no incentive to stay - no jobs and no businesses, so it is fairly futile to tell them to stay," he said. "They need to be given the capacity to feed themselves here."

Ahmed added that many young men were now taking swimming lessons and using hi-tech communication equipment - such as satellite telephones to make SOS calls - to make their trips safer.

"When they hear about their friends and relatives in London or Italy, they get encouraged to go; even when their relatives have no jobs there, they still think they have a better life than here," he added.

According to Ahmed Abdi, the national development plan includes the creation of two vocational training institutes in every region of Somaliland to boost the number of tertiary institutions and the variety of courses available.

"We also intend to set up micro-finance schemes to enable them to be self-supporting," he added.

He noted that despite the continued livestock ban, a few countries in the Arab world were starting to buy Somaliland's meat, and the government hoped the Saudi ban would be lifted, restoring the industry.

Youth policy

The Ministry of Youth and Sports, in partnership with the UN Children's Fund (UNICEF), is drafting a national youth policy - due to be passed by parliament in 2011 - that hopes to address issues of youth emigration, unemployment, education and political participation.

"What we need more than anything is resources from our international partners focused on development rather than strictly emergencies - resources focusing on education and building the economy would encourage young people to stay and build their own nation," the Ministry of Youth's Abdi said."

Saturday, March 28, 2009

- Somalia's president condemned on Saturday a call by Osama bin Laden

TO BE NOTED: From Reuters:

"Somali president condemns al Qaeda meddling
28 Mar 2009 14:41:30 GMT
Source: Reuters
MOGADISHU, March 28 (Reuters) - Somalia's president condemned on Saturday a call by Osama bin Laden for Somalis and Muslims around the world to topple the Horn of Africa nation's new government. Al Qaeda's leader urged Somalis last week to rise up against President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, who become the country's first Islamist president when elected in January this year. In an audio tape recording, bin Laden said Ahmed was a surrogate of the group's enemies and warned Somalis not to be taken in by the president's pledge to introduce sharia law. "We are very disappointed with Osama bin Laden's call for fighting in Somalia when we already have a government," Ahmed told reporters in his hilltop presidential palace on Saturday. "Al Qaeda has not taught us religion and they have nothing for us. Now, we have all-inclusive government and hope for lasting peace," Ahmed said. Ahmed was chairman of the Islamic Courts Union that ran Mogadishu in 2006 before being ousted by Ethiopian forces, wary of having an Islamist state for a neighbour. After forming an opposition party in exile, Ahmed joined the peace process last year. He now faces the task of trying to establish a new security force and persuade Islamist fighters to back the government in the interests of peace. Ahmed returned to Somalia on Friday after visiting Burundi, Kenya, Libya, Rwanda, Sudan and Uganda. He said Libya and Sudan were working to bring peace to Somalia after 18 years of war and violence. "Sudan and Libya told us that they were in the process of bringing together the government and the opposition groups to reconcile them," the president said. The main challenge comes from Al Shabaab insurgents, who control swathes of southern and central Somalia. The group says it is fighting to impose its strict version of Islamic law throughout Somalia and to rid the country of foreign invaders. The African Union peacekeeping force in Somalia is made up of troops from Uganda and Burundi. More soldiers were deployed in Mogadishu after Ahmed's visit and he said they would stay in the country until a Somali force could provide security. (Reporting by Abdi Sheikh and Abdi Guled; Editing by David Clarke and Angus MacSwan)"

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

It appeared to be the end of two years of bloody Ethiopian intervention in this chaotic nation.

Every time I think of intervention in a place like Zimbabwe, I have to remind myself of interventions such as this one. From the NY Times:

"
Ethiopians Withdraw From Key Bases

MOGADISHU, Somalia — Ethiopian troops pulled out from crucial bases in Mogadishu on Tuesday, leaving a power vacuum that was quickly filled by Islamist fighters who seized their positions.

It appeared to be the end of two years of bloody Ethiopian intervention in this chaotic nation. Hundreds of cheering Somalis lined the streets to watch the dozens of Ethiopian military trucks rumbling out of Mogadishu, Somalia’s bullet-pocked capital.

While hundreds of Ethiopian troops still remained at various bases across the city, Ethiopian commanders promised that all troops would leave the country by Tuesday night.

“I am happy they finally left our neighborhood,” said Fadumo Mohammed Jimale, an 18-year-old whose family had been displaced by intense urban street fighting. “They killed my father.”

The Ethiopian troops stormed into Somalia in 2006 to oust an Islamist movement that briefly controlled much of the country and to help shore up Somalia’s weak transitional government.

It did not go as intended( IT NEVER DOES ). The Ethiopian intervention set off a bitter guerrilla war, killing thousands of civilians and driving nearly one million people out of Mogadishu.

Many Mogadishu neighborhoods are now like ghost towns, while the transitional government’s zone of control has shrunk to a few city blocks in the capital and in Baidoa, a market town where the Parliament meets. And Somalia’s Islamist movement has made a steady comeback, with Islamist factions again controlling much of the country.

The Ethiopian troops lost hundreds of soldiers in Somalia, and on Tuesday an Ethiopian commander bid the country farewell.

“We came to Somalia to help the transitional federal government,” said the commander, Col. Gabre Yohannes. “We paid blood and property for that reason. That effort meant that the young generation of Somalis will get peace.”

Many Western diplomats and other Somalia analysts have warned that once all the Ethiopians are gone, the various Islamist factions will unleash their considerable firepower on one another in a scramble to take over the country. Some of that fighting has already kicked off, with dozens of people killed in the past week in combat between moderate and radical Islamist factions.

On Tuesday, gunmen from one Islamist faction rushed into an old pasta factory in central Mogadishu that the Ethiopians had been using as a base. The Islamists were quick to take credit for the Ethiopian withdrawal.

“We drove the Ethiopians out by means of muscle and bullet,” announced Sheik Yusuf Mohammed Siyad, an Islamist leader. “Today, we got the victory we were expecting. We will restore order in this neighborhood.”

“We are ready to unite with our brothers now, since the enemy is leaving,” he added.

Many Somalis suspect the Ethiopians may stay in the rural parts of Somalia or near the border for some time. Beyond that, there are still more than 3,000 African Union troops in Mogadishu, many hunkered down at the airport and presidential palace. Their job is to protect the transitional government, which is in the process of bringing Islamist leaders into its fold, though it continues to be under withering mortar attacks nearly every day.

American officials, who had supported the Ethiopian intervention, have been pushing to replace the African Union troops with a larger, better-trained United Nations peacekeeping force. So far, though, there is broad reluctance among members of the United Nations to take the lead role in such an operation."

Mohammed Ibrahim reported from Mogadishu, and Jeffrey Gettleman from Nairobi, Kenya."


The answer is reconciliation and compromise, but it won't be easy.

Monday, January 12, 2009

"killing at least 11 people in fighting between Islamist insurgents and Ethiopian-backed government forces."

Checking in on Somalia. From Reuters:

Photo
1 of 1Full Size

By Abdi Sheikh

MOGADISHU (Reuters) - Shells hit a crowded Mogadishu market and nearby residential area on Monday, killing at least 11 people in fighting between Islamist insurgents and Ethiopian-backed government forces.

Medical staff told Reuters they had transported 11 corpses and 16 wounded people from Bakara market and the Gedjael neighbourhood after the insurgents exchanged shells with Somali soldiers and their Ethiopian military allies.

"I saw eight dead people and more than 10 wounded in Bakara market," shopkeeper Osman Aden told Reuters in the shattered, coastal capital of Somalia.

"Shells landed on them as they were taking cover behind a hotel wall. Some of them could not be identified as their flesh was mangled."

Islamists have been battling government and Ethiopian troops for the past two years, since Addis Ababa sent forces to oust the Islamic Courts Union from Mogadishu.

More than 16,000 civilians have been killed in the insurgency, a million people have been forced from their homes, more than a third of the population depend on aid, and large areas of Mogadishu lie empty and destroyed.

With an estimated 3,000 Ethiopians now withdrawing, some Islamist factions appear to be turning on al Shabaab fighters, a hardline insurgent group that wants to impose a strict version of Islamic law traditionally shunned by Somalis.

Witnesses said about 51 people, including civilians and fighters, died in battles at the weekend between al Shabaab and another Islamist group, Ahlu Sunna Waljamaca, as that group took over the central Somali trading town of Gurael.

Analysts say while the Ethiopian withdrawal could usher in a new chapter of violence, it may also be a window of opportunity to bring some Islamist groups into the political process and form a broad, inclusive government.

Somalia has been without effective central rule since 1991."

This is getting worse daily.

Sunday, January 11, 2009

"Islam is a religion of peace and stability. It is not a terrorism religion, and al Shabaab is Somalia's biggest threat,"

A Somalia roundup. From Reuters:

"MOGADISHU (Reuters) - Fighting between rival Somali Islamist groups and hardline insurgents on Washington's foreign terrorist list killed dozens of people north of the capital Mogadishu on Sunday, witnesses said.

An Islamist insurgency has been battling government and Ethiopian troops for the past two years, ever since Addis Ababa sent forces to oust the Islamic Courts Union from Mogadishu.

More than 16,000( 16,000 ) civilians have been killed in the insurgency, a million people have been forced from their homes and more than a third( 1/3 ) of the population depend on aid.

But an estimated 3,000 Ethiopians are now withdrawing and some Islamist factions appear to be turning on al Shabaab fighters, a hardline insurgent group that wants to impose a strict version of Islamic law traditionally shunned by Somalis( THEY DON'T WANT IT. GOOD. ).

Analysts say while the Ethiopian withdrawal could usher in a new chapter of violence, it may also be a window of opportunity to bring some Islamist groups into the political process and form a broad, inclusive government.

Witnesses said more than 20 people, mostly fighters, were killed in Sunday's battles between Hareka al Shabaab al Mujahideen, or the Mujahideen Youth Movement, and another Islamist group in Gurael, a trading town in central Somalia.

Sheikh Abdullahi Abu Yusuf, spokesman for the Islamist group Ahlu Sunna Waljamaca, said its fighters had killed 30 al Shabaab militants and seized most of their weapons.

Resident Ahmed Ali told Reuters by telephone he had seen two dead, including an al Shabaab leader, and said Ahlu Sunna Waljamaca was in control of the town after repulsing an attack.

A doctor at Istarlin hospital in Gurael said it had received 20 wounded on Sunday and more were on their way.

The fighting followed clashes a day earlier between al Shabaab rebels and moderate Islamists in Balad, 30 km (19 miles) north of Mogadishu, on Saturday.

Al Shabaab, which spearheaded attacks last year to become the face of the insurgency, is also battling Ethiopian and government soldiers elsewhere outside the capital.

While the fighting may be a struggle between Islamist groups jostling for position as the Ethiopians go, local militias angry with al Shabaab's acts are reported to be helping.

Washington accuses the group of having close ties to al Qaeda. Al Shabaab has been imposing strict sharia law on the towns it controls in southern Somalia -- banning drinking or films and beheading suspected government collaborators( WAR CRIMES ).

Ahlu Sunna Waljamaca accuses al Shabaab of hunting down and killing its religious leaders and desecrating graves.( THEY ARE AWFUL )

Somalia's interim President Sheikh Aden Madobe said on Saturday that al Shabaab was the biggest threat to stability in the Horn of Africa nation and appealed for international help to build up Somali security forces."

We should hope that al Shabaab does not take full control of Somalia, for the sake of Somalis."

And:

"Which way will Somalia go?
Posted by: David Clarke
Tags: Africa Blog, Somalia, , , , , , , , , , , ,

The withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from Somalia has left a nation beset by conflict for nearly two decades at a crossroads.

Ethiopia invaded to oust Islamists from the capital, but insurgents still control much of southern Somalia and more hardline groups that worry Washington have flourished during the two-year intervention.

The United Nations is unlikely to send peacekeepers to replace the Ethiopians. Africa is struggling to send more troops to help the 3,500 soldiers from Uganda and Burundi protecting key sites in the capital.

Some analysts say sending an international force would be counterproductive anyway as it would simply replace the Ethiopians as the hated foreign invader and maintain support for the most militant insurgents.

But without more African peacekeepers deploying soon, it seems unlikely the small and largely ineffectual existing force will remain with a weak mandate to face attacks from insurgents.

While a power vacuum may result in even more violence, some Western diplomats in the region hope it will spur the feuding Islamist opposition groups to settle their differences and work towards forming a broad-based, inclusive government.( YES )

They also hope the departure of the Ethiopians will deflate the insurgency and marginalise hardline groups imposing a strict version of Islamic law traditionally shunned by many Somalis( PLEASE ).

African diplomats pushing hard for some sort of political reconciliation say there are more and more signs of “war fatigue” among the various camps and clans.

They are consistently upbeat about Somalia’s prospects, even more so since President Abdullahi Yusuf resigned, and are reaching out to some of the hardline Islamist groups.

Western opposition to some hue of Islamist administration in Somalia — precisely what Ethiopia invaded to quash — seems to be waning as diplomats take a more pragmatic approach to the political and military reality on the ground( TRUE ).

Is there any reason for optimism after 17 years of violence?( YES )

(Picture: Somali al-Shabaab insurgents arrive in capital Mogadishu, Decemcer 27, 2008. REUTERS/Omar Faruk)"

And more:

Photo
1 of 1Full Size

By Abdiaziz Hassan

NAIROBI (Reuters) - A group of hardline Islamist fighters on Washington's list of foreign terrorists poses the biggest threat to Somalia and the government needs more support to avoid a crisis, its interim president told Reuters.

Islamist insurgents control much of southern and central Somalia and the government holds only the capital Mogadishu and the seat of parliament, Baidoa. Some 3,000 troops from Ethiopia are withdrawing after propping up the government for two years.

Western diplomats hope the insurgency will fracture when the Ethiopian soldiers finally go, and marginalise the hardline al Shabaab fighters who are imposing a strict version of Islamic law traditionally shunned by Somalis.

Speaking on Saturday in Nairobi, Somali President Sheikh Aden Madobe said the government and moderate Muslim scholars would never let al Shabaab seize power, but without help things could get worse for the Horn of Africa nation.

"Al Shabaab is supported by enemies of peace and doing something that is not Islam. Islam is a religion of peace and stability. It is not a terrorism religion, and al Shabaab is Somalia's biggest threat," Madobe said.( WELL SAID )

The hardline rebel group Hareka al Shabaab al Mujahideen, or the Mujahideen Youth Movement, is fighting Ethiopian and Somali government forces alongside other Islamist groups.

The completion of Ethiopia's pullout could help al Shabaab seize more ground, unless more moderate Islamists turn against them. The United States fears a takeover by al Shabaab and other Islamist militants it sees as linked to al Qaeda.

Madobe, who is Somalia's parliament speaker and interim president since Abdullahi Yusuf quit last month, said Somalia needed more money to build up its security forces.

"Ethiopia has decided to leave and insists on that, and we have not succeeded in forming the troops supposed to take over," he said. "Somalia is tired of chaos."

ELECTION DATE SET

The African Union said in a statement after a summit in Addis Ababa on Saturday that the international community needed to redouble commitments to help get a 10,000-strong Somali force of government and opposition soldiers up and running to support the political process.

The AU has been desperately trying to beef up its existing force of some 3,500 troops from Uganda and Burundi. But despite pledges of extra battalions from those two nations and Nigeria, they have yet to deploy. ( TOO BAD )

Analysts say unless the African Union force is strengthened soon there is a risk those peacekeepers will pull out as well, leaving even more of a security vacuum.

"The survival of this government depends on how its leadership works together, how the Somali people assist it in its task and how the international community supports it," Madobe said, before flying back to Baidoa.

He said the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) would respect the 30-day deadline in a transitional federal charter for selecting a new president.

The AU statement issued later on Saturday said the TFG and the opposition Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia had agreed to hold the election process in Djibouti from January 20-26( GOOD ).

The African Union also said "significant progress" had been made on expanding the parliament to include opposition groups.( GOOD )

Madobe said so far two people had applied for president: Yusuf Azhari, a former envoy to Kenya and adviser to former president Abdullahi Yusuf, and Mohamed Deeq Abdimadar Barqadle, a member of the Somali diaspora who has been living in Sweden."

If the international community focuses on Somalia, there is some hope.

Saturday, January 10, 2009

"Laws on land ownership in south Sudan remain vague, and have yet to be clarified in a planned land act"

Ponder this from the FT. I find it distasteful:

"
US investor buys Sudanese warlord’s land

By Javier Blas and William Wallis in London

Published: January 9 2009 23:18 | Last updated: January 9 2009 23:18

A US businessman backed by former CIA and state department officials says he has secured a vast tract of fertile land in south Sudan from the family of a notorious warlord, in post-colonial Africa’s biggest private land deal( DOES THE WAR OWN THE LAND, OR SIMPLY CONTROL IT? ).

Philippe Heilberg, a former Wall Street banker and chairman of New York-based Jarch Capital, told the Financial Times he had gained leasehold rights to 400,000 hectares of land – an area the size of Dubai – by taking a majority stake in a company controlled by the son of Paulino Matip.

EDITOR’S CHOICE

Mr Matip fought on both sides in Sudan’s lengthy civil war but became deputy commander of the army in the autonomous southern region after a 2005 peace agreement.

The deal, between Mr Heilberg’s affiliate company in the Virgin Islands and Gabriel Matip, is a striking example of how the recent spike in global commodity food prices has encouraged foreign investors and governments to scramble for control of arable land in Africa, even in its remotest parts.

In contrast to land deals between foreign investors and governments, Mr Heilberg is gambling on a warlord’s continuing control of a region where his militia operated in the civil war between Khartoum and south Sudan.( HOW NICE )

“You have to go to the guns, this is Africa( I'M SURE AFRICANS APPRECIATE THAT ),” Mr Heilberg said by phone from New York. He refused to disclose how much he had paid for the lease.

Jarch Management Group is linked to Jarch Capital, a US investment company that counts on its board former US state department and intelligence officials, including Joseph Wilson, a former ambassador and expert on Africa, who acts as vice-chairman; and Gwyneth Todd, who was an adviser on Middle Eastern and North African affairs at the Pentagon and under former president Bill Clinton at the White House.

Laws on land ownership in south Sudan remain vague, and have yet to be clarified in a planned land act( THAT WOULD BE JUST ONE OF MY CONCERNS ). For this reason, some foreign experts on Sudan as well as officials in the regional government, speaking on condition of anonymity, doubted Mr Heilberg could assert legal rights( HE JUST SAID THAT HE'S COUNTING ON THE WAR LORD AND HIS GUNS ) over such a vast tract of land. The deal is second only in size to the recent lease of 1.3m hectares by South Korea’s Daewoo from the government of Madagascar.

Mr Heilberg is unconcerned. He believes that several African states, Sudan included, but possibly also Nigeria, Ethiopia and Somalia, are likely to break apart in the next few years( HERE HE'S PROBABLY CORRECT. ), and that the political and legal risks he is taking will be amply rewarded.

“If you bet right on the shifting of sovereignty then you are on the ground floor. I am constantly looking at the map and looking if there is any value,” he said, adding that he was also in contact with rebels in Sudan’s western region of Darfur, dissidents in Ethiopia and the government of the breakaway state of Somaliland, among others.( IT DOESN'T SEEM TO MATTER TO HIM HOW THESE PROPERTY RIGHTS ARE ACQUIRED. )

The company was embroiled in a dispute with the south Sudan government over its claims to exploration rights for oil.

Mr Heilberg said Jarch had no expertise in agricultural development but would be seeking joint venture partners to cultivate the land( PR ), which is in one of the remotest parts of Sudan, in a region bordering the Nile river but with no tarred roads.

Sudan farmland map pic and data

Friday, January 9, 2009

"an outbreak of violence over a disputed election killed 1,300 people and drove 300,000 from their homes"

From Reuters:

Photo
1 of 1Full Size

NAIROBI (Reuters) - Kenya said on Friday it would declare a national emergency over a drought that has left 10 million people needing food aid in East Africa's richest nation.

The arid, northern areas are the worst hit in Kenya by a drought that is causing hardship around the East and Horn of Africa, particularly Somalia and Ethiopia.

"The Government is to declare a National Emergency in regard to the prevailing drought and famine situation in the country that has rendered nearly ten million Kenyans food insecure," said a statement from President Mwai Kibaki's office.

The statement said a food security committee chaired by Kibaki had also resolved to begin importing an additional 5 million bags of maize to cater for a shortfall in Kenya caused largely by the crisis of early 2007, when an outbreak of violence( HOW OFTEN DOES THIS END IN HUNGER OR FAMINE? ) over a disputed election killed 1,300 ( 1300 )people and drove 300,000 from their homes.

"President Kibaki told the food security committee that the entire Government must focus on the urgency of providing food to all Kenyans after the failed rains in the last two seasons and reduced production due to last year's post-election challenges."

Measures would include providing water, famine packages, subsidised fertilisers and seeds, hay for animals, and tractors for farmers, the statement said."

We need to keep track of this to see if Kenyans are receiving enough aid.

Sunday, January 4, 2009

"Yes, they stew for a bit. But then they tend to boil over."

A good post on the FT:

"
Perils of ignoring festering conflicts

Published: January 2 2009 18:57 | Last updated: January 2 2009 18:57

From Kashmir, through Palestine to Somalia, the last weeks of last year were prodigal in reminders of how dangerous it is to ignore( AMEN ) the festering disputes of the Middle East, South Asia and the Horn of Africa. Yes, they stew for a bit. But then they tend to boil over.

Gaza, to be sure, was already a cauldron. But it got that way in no small part because of flawed western policies: first, through allowing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to stew; and then attempting to isolate Hamas( I'D LIKE TO SEE THIS DONE, BUT IT WON'T WORK ) – which was democratically elected three years ago – and doing nothing to lift the Israeli siege that has turned Gaza into a prison for its 1.5m inhabitants.( I AGREE )

Kashmir, over which India and Pakistan have fought three wars and came within hours of all-out conflict again twice in 2002, has been stewing in insurgency for two decades. Any US attempt to reconcile the nuclear-armed rivals over what Bill Clinton once called “the most dangerous place in the world” has taken second place: to a US alliance with India intended as a counterweight to China; and to bankrolling Pakistan’s army in the forlorn hope it will guard Afghanistan’s back door against jihadism.

November’s brazen and bloody jihadi raid on Mumbai may have been carried out by a Kashmiri group, or it may be part of subcontinent-wide reprisals against the new civilian government of Pakistan’s attempted rapprochement with India and retreat from alliances of convenience with jihadis in Afghanistan and Kashmir. Either way, it illustrates how unresolved conflict can detonate a region.( TRUE )

Somalia is of a different order. It imploded into a long night of anarchy and warlordism nearly two decades ago. After the messy failure of US intervention in 1993, it was left to rot( SAD BUT TRUE ) – until the Union of Islamic Courts began to provide a rough semblance of Islamist order. That panicked the Bush administration into backing Ethiopia’s devastating invasion two years ago. It was a bit like taking a hammer to a ball of mercury: the Islamists were routed but regrouped under radical leadership, and are taking over swaths of Somalia (and maybe its new business, piracy) as Ethiopia withdraws.( TRUE )

None of these conflicts is at all easy, but rarely are they responsive to brute military force. The record suggests force breeds extremism and, in extremis, failed states.( I AGREE )

Israel’s regular attempts to enhance its security and break the regional logjam by force well illustrate this. The occupation of Palestinian territory after the 1967 six-day war has locked it in a deadly embrace with its Palestinian neighbours that only the creation of an independent Palestinian state can break. Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon led to the emergence of Israel’s deadliest enemy, Hizbollah – as Ehud Barak, the current defence minister, has acknowledged though apparently not learnt from. Its misfired 2006 war on Hizbollah ended by undermining a rare, democratically elected, pro-western government in Beirut, making Lebanon barely governable, just as the current pounding of Gaza has discredited Mahmoud Abbas, the moderate Palestinian president.( I AGREE )

Ripples through these regions easily build into waves. The US-allied leaders of Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan, initially happy to see Israel hit Hizbollah or Hamas, quickly change their tune as soon as their peoples rally to the militants. Their legitimacy and survival is at stake.( TRUE )

Happily( MORE LIKE PRAISE GOD ), the superficial muscularity of the Bush-Cheney era – the idea that you can bomb people into moderation and alignment with western interests – is about to end.

Barack Obama has the opportunity to approach afresh these unresolved conflicts before they disappear into a lethal stew of rejectionism and radicalism. He looks to be preparing to appoint several special envoys, including for the Middle East and Kashmir. Good. That concentrated focus is needed: to identify and act on tractable grievances before they become the property of jihadis and extremists."

Maybe he could add the Congo, Nigeria, Zimbabwe, Columbia, Sri Lanka, Sudan, and Georgia to his list, just for starters.

Wednesday, December 31, 2008

"Mortar shells slammed into a busy market in Mogadishu, the capital, on Tuesday"

From the NY Times, a bad omen:

"
Somalia: 10 Die in Market Attack

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: December 30, 2008

Mortar shells slammed into a busy market in Mogadishu, the capital, on Tuesday, witnesses said, as the country’s weak government crumbled and the impending pullout of Ethiopian troops raised fears that Islamic insurgents might take over. At least 10 people were killed in the attack, witnesses said. Insurgents attacked bases of government soldiers and African Union peacekeepers, and mortar shells fired in retaliation hit the market, which the insurgents may have been using as a base."

Tuesday, December 30, 2008

"One tribe, one religion, one language, one culture — but they don’t see what unites them, they only see what divides them"

From the NY Times:

"
Somalia’s Fate Still Unclear After Leader Quits

NAIROBI, Kenya — Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed, the cantankerous president of beleaguered Somalia, resigned Monday. The question now is, will it make a difference?

Could it be the death knell of Somalia’s transitional government, whose zone of control is down to a few city blocks in a country nearly as big as Texas? Or will it be the government’s saving grace?

For weeks, Western diplomats, Somali elders and United Nations officials have been crossing their fingers that Mr. Yusuf, widely blamed for trying to block a peace deal with Somalia’s increasingly powerful Islamist insurgents, would step aside.

Mr. Yusuf, one of Somalia’s first warlords, never seemed able to shake his warlord ways. Western diplomats have accused him of favoring his clan at the expense of all others, enabling corruption and too often trying to solve knotty political problems, which called for a little finesse, with the business end of a machine gun.

Kenyan officials even threatened sanctions against him this month, calling him “an obstacle to peace” and warning that unless he changed tack, he would no longer be welcome in Kenya. That was a serious threat because Mr. Yusuf, who claims to be 74 but is widely believed to be several years older, has gone to Kenya several times for lifesaving medical treatment for an ailing liver.

In stepping down, Mr. Yusuf said he could not unite Somalia’s feuding leaders, news agencies reported, and as soon as he resigned, the United Nations’ top official for Somalia, Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah, said that “a new page of Somalia history is now open.”

But what will be written on it?

The scramble to succeed Mr. Yusuf could set off an ugly clan-based political melee. By contrast, the prime minister and other top Somali officials could give the post to a moderate Islamist leader, who might be the unifying figurehead that Somalia so desperately needs.

Or it may simply be too late because so much of the country has already fallen into the hands of powerful, hard-line Islamists who behead opponents and have, on at least one occasion, stoned to death a teenage girl who said she had been raped.( GOOD LORD )

Rashid Abdi, a Somalia analyst at the International Crisis Group, which tracks conflicts worldwide, said Mr. Yusuf’s resignation was “good news” because “it may create the opportunity to put a more conciliatory figure in charge of the government.”

That figure could be someone like Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed, a well-respected, moderate Islamic cleric who has struggled to walk the tightrope between negotiating with the transitional government and being dismissed as a sellout.

Earlier this year, Sheik Sharif’s faction signed a power-sharing agreement with the transitional government, despite the president’s objections, and many Somalis are hoping the deal will stick.

“If that power-sharing deal is applied, it will help a lot,” said Muhammad Dheere, a pharmacist in Mogadishu, Somalia’s battle-scarred capital. “Then the other problems could finish soon.”

Somalia certainly has a lot of them. Famine is steadily creeping toward millions of people. Pirates off Somalia’s coast have netted countless headlines and as much as $100 million in ransoms. Violence is rising again and finding new forms, with Islamist factions now fighting one another to take over the areas the government no longer controls.

Over the weekend, in two towns, a moderate Islamist group routed the Shabab, one of the nation’s most fearsome and radical Islamist militias. But the Shabab were fighting back fiercely on Monday, and they also took over a United Nations food distribution office, imperiling a critical lifeline.

The thousands of Ethiopian troops who have been in Somalia for two years are threatening to leave any day now. If they do, the transitional government may have no one to protect it from Islamist insurgents, except a relatively small contingent of African Union peacekeepers( LIKE IN THE CONGO? ) and a few ragtag Somali militiamen.

It will not be easy finding someone qualified — and willing — to serve as president, considering all this. Somalia’s transitional government, created four years ago (with Mr. Yusuf at the helm) as a temporary solution until Somalia could hold elections, is carefully balanced on a formula that divides power among Somalia’s four major clans.

One considerable strike against Sheik Sharif is that he is not only from the same clan, but from the same subclan as the prime minister, who is well regarded and not believed to be going anywhere.

Many people expect that the next president could come from the same clan as Mr. Yusuf, to minimize clan friction. The speaker of Parliament will take over the presidency for one month until Parliament elects a new president.

Yet, after nearly 18 years of unbridled anarchy, many Somalis have lost hope.( WHO COULD BLAME THEM? )

“Somalis are a God-forsaken nation,” said Abdirizak Adam Hassan, a Canadian-Somali who used to work with Mr. Yusuf and is now looking for a job. “They are so oblivious to what is happening. One tribe, one religion, one language, one culture — but they don’t see what unites them, they only see what divides them.

“Maybe on the outside, to the international community, the resignation will matter,” he said. “But not on the inside.”

Mohammed Ibrahim contributed reporting from Mogadishu, Somalia."

This is a terribly difficult and unending situation. How often are we encountering that now?