The government’s broader measure, known as the “U-6″ for its data classification, hit 15.6% in March — a big leap from 14.8% in February.

TO BE NOTED: From Real Time Economics:

"By Sudeep Reddy

Americans are giving up on their job searches at a faster pace. The nation’s official unemployment rate jumped to 8.5% in March from 8.1%, putting U.S. joblessness at its highest since November 1983.

But the Labor Department’s most comprehensive gauge of unemployment surpassed even its early 1980s levels. The government’s broader measure, known as the “U-6″ for its data classification, hit 15.6% in March — a big leap from 14.8% in February.

The comprehensive measure of labor underutilization accounts for people who have stopped looking for work or who can’t find full-time jobs. The March figure is the highest since the Labor Department started this particular data series in 1994. It’s also above a discontinued and even broader measure that hit 15% in late 1982, when the official unemployment rate was 10.8%. (That data series goes back to the 1970s.)

The 8.5% unemployment rate is calculated based on people who are without jobs, who are available to work and who have actively sought work in the prior four weeks. The “actively looking for work” definition is fairly broad, including people who contacted an employer, employment agency, job center or friends; sent out resumes or filled out applications; or answered or placed ads, among other things.

The U-6 figure includes everyone in the official rate plus “marginally attached workers” — those who are neither working nor looking for work, but say they want a job and have looked for work recently; and people who are employed part-time for economic reasons, meaning they want full-time work but took a part-time schedule instead because that’s all they could find.

Many forecasters expect the official unemployment rate to top 10% by early next year. If the path of the broader unemployment rate continues, it’s likely to top 18%. For people in this group, comparisons to the Great Depression (when 25% of Americans were out of work) may not look so wild even if overall economic activity is holding up better."

But every state has seen significant increases in joblessness since the beginning of the recession in 2007

TO BE NOTED: From Real Time Economics:

"By Phil Izzo

The Labor Department issued its state unemployment report for February, and the data underlined a continuing deterioration in the jobs market.

The unemployment rate increased in February from the previous month in every state except Nebraska. But every state has seen significant increases in joblessness since the beginning of the recession in 2007.

Earlier this month, the Labor Department reported that the national unemployment rate for February stood at 8.1%. Overall, 13 states and Washington, DC, had significantly higher jobless rates than the national figure, with seven states showing double-digit numbers.

See a map charting changes in state unemployment rates.

The following chart is sortable by state, jobless rate, change since the start of recession and difference from the national unemployment rate.

State	Jobless Rate	Change since start of recession	Difference from national rate
Alabama	8.4	+4.7	+0.3
Alaska	8	+1.7	-0.1
Arizona	7.4	+3.2	-0.7
Arkansas	6.6	+1.1	-1.5
California	10.5	+4.6	+2.4
Colorado	7.2	+3.2	-0.9
Connecticut	7.4	+2.6	-0.7
Delaware	7.4	+3.9	-0.7
District of Columbia	9.9	+4.2	+1.8
Florida	9.4	+4.9	+1.3
Georgia	9.3	+4.8	+1.2
Hawaii	6.5	+3.4	-1.6
Idaho	6.8	+4.1	-1.3
Illinois	8.6	+3.3	+0.5
Indiana	9.4	+4.9	+1.3
Iowa	4.9	+1.1	-3.2
Kansas	5.9	+1.7	-2.2
Kentucky	9.2	+3.9	+1.1
Louisiana	5.7	+1.7	-2.4
Maine	8	+3.1	-0.1
Maryland	6.7	+3.1	-1.4
Massachusetts	7.8	+3.5	-0.3
Michigan	12	+4.6	+3.9
Minnesota	8.1	+3.4	0
Mississippi	9.1	+2.8	+1
Missouri	8.3	+3	+0.2
Montana	6	+2.8	-2.1
Nebraska	4.2	+1.4	-3.9
Nevada	10.1	+4.9	+2
New Hampshire	5.3	+1.9	-2.8
New Jersey	8.2	+4	+0.1
New Mexico	5.4	+2.2	-2.7
New York	7.8	+3.2	-0.3
North Carolina	10.7	+6	+2.6
North Dakota	4.3	+1.1	-3.8
Ohio	9.4	+3.6	+1.3
Oklahoma	5.5	+1.4	-2.6
Oregon	10.8	+5.4	+2.7
Pennsylvania	7.5	+3.1	-0.6
Rhode	10.5	+5.3	+2.4
South Carolina	11	+4.8	+2.9
South Dakota	4.6	+1.7	-3.5
Tennessee	9.1	+4.1	+1
Texas	6.5	+2.3	-1.6
Utah	5.1	+2.2	-3
Vermont	7	+3.1	-1.1
Virginia	6.6	+3.4	-1.5
Washington	8.4	+3.8	+0.3
West Virginia	6	+1.4	-2.1
Wisconsin	7.7	+2.9	-0.4
Wyoming	3.9	+0.8	-4.2

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

“Firms are continuing to react very quickly to the downturn in demand with a combination of layoffs and restricting new hires,”

From Bloomberg:

"By Bob Willis

Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Companies in the U.S. eliminated an estimated 693,000 jobs in December, the most since records began in 2001, a private report based on payroll data showed.

The drop in the ADP Employer Services gauge was larger than the median estimate of economists( WHO AREN'T NOTICING THE PROACTIVITY RUN ) surveyed by Bloomberg News. Today’s report is the first to reflect methodological changes that ADP says will limit the differences between its calculations and the government’s payroll numbers.

Companies are accelerating( PROACTIVELY ) the pace of firings as the recession plaguing the world’s largest economy heads into a second year. The Labor Department may report in two days that employers slashed jobs in December for a 12th consecutive month, putting total job cuts at 2.4 million for 2008, according to a Bloomberg survey median.

“Firms are continuing to react very quickly( PROACTIVELY ) to the downturn in demand( WHICH HAS BEEN LAGGING ) with a combination of layoffs and restricting new hires,” Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts, said before the report. “It’s a major drag on consumer spending( TRUE ).”

Revised figures issued Dec. 18 by ADP and Macroeconomic Advisers LLC showed the discrepancies with Labor Department data narrowed considerably using the new approach. The new data put ADP’s estimate of job losses from September through November at 1.03 million, more than double its prior projection and closer to the government’s figures showing a decline of 1.29 million in private payrolls for the period.

‘Time Will Tell’

The new version “should perform better than the consensus expectation -- which generally is tough to beat,” Seamus Smyth, an economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., wrote in an e-mail to clients last week. “That said, the ADP report was already revised once prior to this, and that revision fit very well on historical data. But when applied in real time over the past year, performance was much worse. Time will tell whether the new construction actually leads to better forecasts.”

The ADP report was forecast to show a drop of 495,000 jobs, according to the median estimate of 24 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from declines of 250,000 to 550,000.

ADP includes only private employment and does not take into account hiring by government agencies, which is included in the monthly payroll report. Macroeconomic Advisers LLC in St. Louis produces the report jointly with ADP.

15-Year High

The government may report on Jan. 9 that total payrolls fell by 500,000 last month, and the unemployment rate rose to a 15- year high of 7 percent, according to the Bloomberg survey median. The economy lost 1.9 million jobs in the first 11 months of the year.

Other labor-market reports have also shown weakness. Job cuts announced by U.S. employers rose 275 percent last month from December 2007, to 166,348, Chicago-based Challenger. Gray & Christmas Inc. said today. For all of 2008, employers announced 1.22 million job cuts, the most in five years.

Today’s ADP report showed a decrease of 220,000 jobs in goods-producing industries including manufacturers and construction companies. Service providers cut 473,000 workers. Employment in construction fell by 102,000, the 21st consecutive month of cuts in the industry.

Companies employing more than 499 workers shrank their workforce by 91,000 jobs. Medium-sized businesses, with 50 to 499 employees, were down 321,000 jobs and small companies decreased payrolls by 281,000.

Financial Services

Financial-service companies and manufacturers are leading the cutbacks. Cigna Corp., the health insurer whose shares fell 69 percent last year because of investment losses, said this week it will cut about 1,100 jobs and take a fourth-quarter after-tax charge of $30 million to $40 million for 2008.

A declining stock market and the recession have eroded the earnings outlook for Cigna, which relies on investment returns for almost two-thirds of pretax income.

“Given the unprecedented economic situation we and our customers are facing, these actions are essential( PROACTIVE ),” said Cigna Chief Executive Officer H. Edward Hanway in a Jan. 5 statement. “Decisions like these are difficult and never made lightly, but they are necessary given the current environment( PROACTIVE ).”

The ADP report is based on data from about 400,000 businesses with approximately 24 million workers on payrolls.

ADP began keeping records in January 2001 and started publishing its numbers in 2006."

This is very bad news. The need to stop this Proactivity Run is urgent. The Stimulus is largely an attempt to do that, by allowing employers to expect an injection of consumption into the economy. In other words, the stimulus acts as a government guarantee to help stop the downward spiral in consumption. This argues for the Sales Tax decrease, which will give an incentive for current consumption as opposed to deferred consumption ( saving ). Only government action can stop any run, because only it has the available resources to be believed.

"Consumer spending in the U.S. fell less than forecast"

Interesting news on Bloomberg:

"By Bob Willis and Courtney Schlisserman

Dec. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Consumer spending in the U.S. fell less than forecast as cheaper gasoline left Americans with more cash( GOOD NEWS ), while jobless claims climbed to a 26-year high( BAD NEWS ), signaling purchases will keep sliding into 2009.

Spending dropped 0.6 percent in November, and rose for the first time in six months after accounting for inflation, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. First-time unemployment benefit claims jumped to 586,000( BAD NEWS ), and durable-goods orders declined less than anticipated( GOOD NEWS ), other reports showed.

The deteriorating job market means consumers will probably further rein in spending( TRUE ); economists including those at Morgan Stanley estimate more than 400,000 people will lose their jobs this month. The outlook forced Sears Holdings Corp., the largest U.S. department-store company, earlier this month to abandon its earnings forecast for the rest of the year.

“The economy continues to struggle and unfortunately the first half( I AGREE ) of 2009 does not look very good,” said Carl Riccadonna, a senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York. “We look for a further contraction and a continued acceleration in the pace of layoffs.”

Gasoline prices fell by a total of 50 percent in October and November, and discounts by retailers from Toys “R” Us Inc. to Wal-Mart Stores Inc. helped prevent a bigger drop in purchases last month. Today’s Commerce report also showed that the gain in spending adjusted for inflation was the biggest in almost two years( GOOD NEWS ).

Spending Outlook

“The increase in real spending is unlikely( UNLIKELY IS FINE ) to be sustained with the job losses we are seeing,” said Benjamin Reitzes, an economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. The gain last month “was more a technicality based on the drop in gasoline prices( HOWVER<>

Stocks were little changed after today’s reports. The dollar remained lower, while Treasuries advanced. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index was up 0.2 percent at 864.56 at 10:14 a.m. in New York, benchmark 10-year note yields slipped to 2.17 percent from 2.18 percent late yesterday, and the dollar lost 0.5 percent against the euro to $1.3994.

A separate Commerce report showed orders for durable goods in November fell 1 percent( NOT BAD ), after an 8.4 percent decrease in October that was bigger than previously reported. Excluding a slump in transportation gear, orders for goods designed to last several years unexpectedly increased.

Capital Goods

Bookings for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a measure of future business investment, increased 4.7 percent( GOOD NEWS ), the most since September 2006, after a 6.6 percent slump in October. Shipments of those items, used in calculating gross domestic product, rose 0.2 percent( GOOD NEWS ).

“Orders were so down in the previous months that there’s probably a little payback for that( WE'LL TAKE IT. HOWEVER, THIS WOULD SUPPORT MY VIEW THAT WE WENT DOWN MORE THAN WE WOULD FUNDAMENTALLY HAVE DUE TO THE FEAR AND AVERSION TO RISK ),” Robert Stein, senior economist at First Trust Advisors in Lisle, Illinois, said before the report.

Today’s Labor Department report showed that the four-week moving average of claims, a less volatile measure, also was the highest since 1982, at 558,000 for the week to Dec. 20. Initial claims were projected to increase to 558,000, according to the median of 32 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey.

The number of people staying on benefit rolls fell to 4.37 million in the week ended Dec. 13 from 4.387 million.

Rising joblessness contributed to a drop in personal income last month. The Commerce figures showed income fell 0.2 percent in November after being unchanged the prior month( NOT GOOD ).

Hit to Income

“Given the further increase in jobless claims,” wage and salary income “is likely to further decelerate in the near term,” Deutsche’s Riccadonna wrote in a note to clients.

The drop in consumer spending last month extended declines to a record fifth consecutive decline, the Commerce Department said. Economists forecast unadjusted spending would fall 0.7 percent, according to the median of 64 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.

Today’s report also confirmed inflation is retreating as demand wanes. Prices plunged 1.1 percent, also the biggest since records began in 1992. The gauge increased 1.4 percent from November 2007, the smallest gain in six years. The Fed’s preferred price measure, which excludes food and fuel, was unchanged for the second consecutive month, the first time that’s happened since 1999.( TRUE )

Gasoline Price

The average price of unleaded regular gasoline at the pump fell by $1 to $2.11 in November from the prior month, according to AAA, leading the drop in overall prices.

The decrease in spending pushed the savings rate up to 2.8 percent from 2.4 percent in October. A positive rate suggests consumers are restraining spending to boost savings( THIS RATE IS FINE ).

Even after the bump in November sales, retailers are concerned about the holiday shopping season, which brings in one- third or more of annual revenue. The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said yesterday that November-December sales may fall as much as 2 percent. The ICSC had previously projected a drop of as much as 1 percent.

“Given the current economic and retail environment, we will carefully evaluate alternatives that provide financial flexibility in the near-term,” Sears’s interim Chief Executive Officer W. Bruce Johnson said in a statement.

Consumer spending dropped at a 3.8 percent annual pace in the third quarter( NOT GOOD ), the biggest plunge since 1980, revised Commerce figures showed yesterday. The economy shrank 0.5 percent. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast the economy will contract through the first half of 2009."

A better report than expected.

"I'm proud to stand with many of our union members to see how they have revitalized many of our communities."

Cranky News And Views likes the choice for the new Secretary Of Labor, Hilda Solis:

"Thank You Mr. Obama

....for appointing Hilda Solis as our new Secretary of Labor.

She's the daughter of a Teamster shop steward and a member of the United Rubber Workers.

Hilda Solis:

Quote: "When union people get paid good wages, that money stays in the community, it helps to provide a vibrant economy, it helps to also even send their children like me . . . to college and eventually run for office. Wow. Outstanding," she said, speaking out for the Employee Free Choice Act last year. "The unions always get a bad name by certain people in [Congress], but I'll tell you one thing: I'm proud to stand with many of our union members to see how they have revitalized many of our communities."

She sounds excellent.

"the fact that the government also sharply lowered the reports of jobs losses in October and September"

Jay Hancock does find some good employment news:

"September-October job losses revised downward

Obscured by the hubbub over the loss of 533,000 U.S. jobs in November was the fact that the government also sharply lowered the reports of jobs losses in October and September. A month ago the Labor Department had put the national employment decline for the two months at a little over half a million. Today's report says the country lost 723,000 jobs those two months."

1 Month Net Change Series Id: CES0000000001 Seasonally Adjusted Super Sector: Total nonfarm Industry: Total nonfarm NAICS Code: N/A Data Type: ALL EMPLOYEES, THOUSANDS
Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Annual
1998	270	189	144	277	401	212	119	352	218	193	284	342
1999	121	410	106	376	213	266	291	192	202	408	294	294
2000	249	121	472	286	225	-46	163	3	122	-11	231	138
2001	-16	61	-30	-281	-44	-128	-125	-160	-244	-325	-292	-178
2002	-132	-147	-24	-85	-7	45	-97	-16	-55	126	8	-156
2003	83	-158	-212	-49	-6	-2	25	-42	103	203	18	124
2004	142	27	334	270	282	89	112	83	176	359	63	144
2005	125	209	119	332	177	261	368	213	110	105	361	152
2006	232	273	259	147	22	94	262	191	165	73	182	199
2007	126	25	177	46	162	107	57	74	81	140	60	41
2008	-76	-83	-88	-67	-47	-100	-67	-127	-403	-320(p)	-533(p)
p : preliminary

"The cost of living in the U.S. probably fell in October by the most in almost sixty years"

Well, Bloomberg says this:

"The cost of living in the U.S. probably fell in October by the most in almost sixty years, while manufacturing and homebuilding sank deeper into a recession, economists said before reports this week.

Consumer prices probably dropped 0.8 percent last month, the most since 1949, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. Builders broke ground on the fewest houses in at least a half century and factory output weakened further, other reports may show.

Commodity costs plunged in October when the economy, which descended last quarter, went into freefall as credit and financial markets collapsed. Slumping sales are forcing retailers to lower prices, giving the Federal Reserve scope to keep cutting interest rates to limit the damage.

``Tumbling energy and commodity prices have altered the inflation landscape,'' said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania. ``More rate cuts are needed as the economy is sinking deeper into recession.''

The Labor Department's consumer-price report is due Nov. 19. Fuel, clothing and auto costs probably dropped last month as sales at U.S. retailers fell 2.8 percent, the most since records began in 1992, economists said.

The slump in crude oil is feeding through to prices at the pump. The average cost of a gallon of regular gasoline plunged 17 percent last month to $3.08, according to AAA."

Here's the thing: Shouldn't the drop in the price of gas and other commodities act as a stimulus?

"Commodity Deflation

``We are seeing the fallout of global recession on inflation,'' said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. ``In commodity prices, it's leading to deflation.''

Core prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.2 percent last month after a 0.1 percent gain the prior month, according to the survey median.

A report from the Labor Department on Nov. 18 may foreshadow the drop in retail costs. Wholesale prices fell 1.8 percent last month, the most since records began in 1947, according to economists surveyed.

As sales fall, manufacturers are cutting output and firing workers. Ford Motor Co. plans temporary shutdowns at nine North American plants this quarter after an 18 percent drop in U.S. sales this year, Angie Kozleski, a spokeswoman for the Dearborn, Michigan-based automaker, said last week.

Auto cutbacks probably pushed down manufacturing output last month, economists said a report from the Fed tomorrow may show. Overall industrial production, which includes factories, mines and utilities, rose 0.2 percent in October, led by a resumption of work at Gulf Coast refineries after Hurricane Ike shut down oil rigs the prior month, economists forecast."

I'm going to post about Yves Smith's post on this.

"Hurricane Rebound

A report from the New York Fed the same day may show manufacturing in the state contracted this month at the fastest pace since at least 2001. A similar report from the Philadelphia Fed on Nov. 20 may show regional activity shrank for an 11th time in 12 months.

The economic slump will intensify this quarter and persist into the first three months of 2009, making it the longest downturn since 1974-75, according to economists surveyed this month.

The housing recession at the heart of the economic downturn shows no signs of letting up. New-home starts in October dropped to a 780,000 annual pace, the lowest level since records began in 1959, the Commerce Department is forecast to report Nov. 19."

Here's a case where a weather word can be used both literally and metaphorically.

"Outlook Dims

A gauge of the economy's course will point to continued weakness, economists project a private report on Nov. 20 will show. The New York-based Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators probably fell 0.6 percent after increasing 0.3 percent in September.

Central bankers are battling to cushion the economy from the worst financial crisis in seven decades.

``Policy makers will remain in close contact, monitor developments closely and stand ready to take additional steps should conditions warrant,'' Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said Nov. 14 at a panel discussion in Frankfurt hosted by the European Central Bank.

Heads of state of the Group of 20, which represents almost 90 percent of world output, met in Washington Saturday to lay the framework for coordinated actions to stem the global recession."

They must be reading Roubini.