"The conflict has killed more than 70,000 people."

A Sri Lanka report:

"COLOMBO, Sri Lanka (AP) — Sri Lankan forces captured the strategic Elephant Pass base from the Tamil Tiger rebels on Friday, ousting them from their last stronghold on the Jaffna Peninsula and boxing them into a shrinking pocket of land in the northeast.( THEY ARE IN TROUBLE. )

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The New York Times

The capture of the base gives the government nearly full control of the northern peninsula, the rebels’ cultural capital, for the first time since 2000. It also puts the country’s major north-south highway completely under its control for the first time in 23 years.

The rebels are now confined to a small area of jungle around their last remaining stronghold, Mullaittivu.

In a nationally televised address, President Mahinda Rajapaksa praised the victory. “Our soldiers by this evening have been able to totally liberate Elephant Pass” from the rebels, he said.

There was no comment from the rebels, also known as the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam.

The government, which seized the rebels’ administrative capital, Kilinochchi, last week, has promised to crush the rebel group and end Sri Lanka’s 25-year-old civil war.

But in a reminder of the rebels’ ability to cause destruction even as they suffer conventional defeats, the rebels detonated a roadside bomb( THIS WILL BECOME THEIR STRATEGY AGAIN ) in the country’s east on Friday that killed three air force troops and four civilians, said a military spokesman, Brig. Udaya Nanayakkara.

The attack outside the eastern city of Trincomalee signaled a return to guerrilla tactics( YES ). The government captured the east from the rebels in 2007, but attacks in the area have increased in recent months.

On Friday, government forces marching from the north and south broke into Elephant Pass and fought heavy battles with the rebels, the military said. The base is on the isthmus connecting the northern Jaffna Peninsula with the rest of the island in the Indian Ocean.

Analysts said the guerrillas appeared to have withdrawn their artillery and heavy weaponry from the area and were sacrificing their bases on the peninsula to consolidate forces near Mullaittivu, where they will probably make a stand.

Human rights groups have warned that casualties among the hundreds of thousands of civilians living in the shrinking pocket of rebel territory were likely to mount as the government closed in on the insurgents.( THIS IS MY CONCERN )

The Tamil Tigers have been fighting since 1983 to create an independent homeland for ethnic minority Tamils, who have suffered decades of marginalization by governments controlled by the Sinhalese majority. The conflict has killed more than 70,000( 70,000) people.

Troops south of Jaffna were also fighting the rebels, pushing east from the Kilinochchi area, Brigadier Nanayakkara said. The troops found the bodies of seven insurgents from fighting Thursday, he said."

I would hope that the government reaches out to Tamils, to try and isolate the Tigers after this conflict winds down. Otherwise, Sri Lanka can expect a return of suicide bombings and terrorist attacks.

"It was the constant dream of all Sri Lankans, whether Sinhala, Tamil or Muslim, who are opposed to separatism, racism, and terrorism"

Has military force ended the war in Sri Lanka? From Reuters:

"Jan 2 (Reuters) - Sri Lanka's military on Friday said it had seized Kilinochchi, which the separatist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) had claimed as capital of the nation they want to create for Sri Lankan Tamils.

With that, the military has struck a strategic and symbolic blow that shows it has made the most battlefield progress at any time since the war began in 1983( TRUE ) [ID:nSP417902]. That has analysts asking if the ground war could soon be over.

Here are some scenarios of what could happen next:

THE BATTLE HEADS EAST

With Kilinochchi in government hands, the Tigers now control a wedge-shaped piece of land in the northeast corner of the island and a heavily defended strip on the neck of the Jaffna Peninsula that soldiers can hit from both sides now. The only major town the Tigers still control is the Mullaittivu port in the east. Troops are heading towards there on all fronts to the west and south, trying to push the LTTE towards the ocean. Another unit of near division strength -- Task Force Five -- is soon to deploy, the military has said.

DOES MILITARY SUCCESS MEAN EARLY ELECTIONS?

With the LTTE losing ground and the military riding high, President Mahinda Rajapaksa has plenty of political support. That has prompted allies to call for an early parliamentary election to consolidate power and sidestep criticism of his government's handling of the $32 billion economy levelled by the main opposition United National Party. Dates are already set for polls for two provincial councils in February, which many political observers say will be a chance for Rajapaksa to test the waters and shore up support before a national election. Some were expecting Kilinochchi's fall to be the trigger for an early national poll, but advisers have said that is but one of many factors that figure in Rajapaksa's political calculations.

WHAT ABOUT THE ECONOMY?

As predicted, both the Colombo Stock Exchange .CSE and the sliding rupee currency <.LKR=> got a boost from Kilinochchi's capture. It remains to be seen how long that will last since both tend to move on their own fundamentals and have recorded some impressive performances in the course of the 25-year war. In December, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services cut Sri Lanka's sovereign rating by one level to B, five notches below investment grade, on declining foreign exchange reserves and a high fiscal deficit. Most analysts say a sovereign default is unlikely. That said, the IMF has warned that Sri Lanka's impressive economic growth could slow if it doesn't cut spending, stop taking expensive foreign loans and spend its foreign exchange to support the rupee. It has eased up its support for the rupee to conserve cash.

IS THAT A RISK TO RAJAPAKSA?

Not really, especially with popularity for his war effort so strong. Rajapaksa's mainly rural power base has been largely shielded from economic woes through his populist budgets and development projects. Rajapaksa is also counting on a flood of post-war reconstruction money to come in after fighting ends.

ARE THE TIGERS DOWN FOR THE COUNT?

Tiger leader Vellupillai Prabhakaran in his annual speech in November said the government was living in a "dreamland" if it thought it would win. But most analysts say the Tigers are on the defensive and losing strength. The diplomatic currency on which the Tigers had long traded -- that they are defending a minority -- suffered in December when Human Rights Watch accused them of mistreating and forcibly recruiting the Tamils they say they represent. Many analysts say Prabhakaran may order bombings or air raids in Colombo, but will not be able to reverse military gains as spectacularly as he did in the 1980s and 1990s. The military and analysts expect the Tigers to increasingly go underground as they lose turf, changing back into the guerrilla group they started as and away from the conventional force they have become. In a possible sign of things to come, a suspected rebel suicide bomber killed three airmen in Colombo hours after Kilinochchi fell.

INDIA: THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM

Sri Lanka's giant neighbour has always loomed large in the war. Despite a lot of noise from ethnic Tamil politicians in southern India with decades of links to the LTTE, Rajapaksa and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh have agreed Tamil political grievances must be addressed while the Tigers should be dealt with militarily. And since Islamist gunmen assaulted Mumbai last month, analysts say Singh is unlikely to give any quarter to a group his own government lists as a terrorist outfit despite renewed pressure for a ceasefire from Indian Tamil politicians. (Writing by Bryson Hull; Editing by Alex Richardson)"

I think that the Tigers might well become a guerrilla group again, but, since they are having to force Tamils to fight, they might not have the necessary support for an effective resistance movement, especially if the Sri Lankan government reaches out to Tamils. In any case, we have to hope the human rights situation improves for all concerned. We cannot condone the War Crimes committed by the Tigers, or by the government. Pressure should be put on the Sri Lankan government to address Tamil concerns, in order to end the war, defang the Tigers, and bring about peace and justice for all Sri Lankans.

More from Reuters:

"The LTTE started fighting the government in 1983. It says it is battling for the rights of ethnic Tamils in the face of mistreatment by successive governments led by the Sinhalese majority since Sri Lanka won independence from Britain in 1948.

Exactly a year ago, Rajapaksa's government formally scrapped an increasingly tattered six-year truce brokered by Norway, saying the rebels were using it as cover to regroup and re-arm.

The military had been closing in on Kilinochchi since September. Over the past month, it has been assaulting Tiger defences encircling the town and both sides claim to have inflicted ever higher death tolls on the other.

"It was the constant dream of all Sri Lankans, whether Sinhala, Tamil or Muslim, who are opposed to separatism, racism, and terrorism, and have always, sought peace, freedom and democracy," Rajapaksa said in a nationally televised address on Friday.

"Today our heroic troops have made that dream a reality. A short while ago, our brave and heroic troops have fully captured Kilinochchi that was considered the main bastion of the LTTE."

In Washington, State Department spokesman Gordon Duguid said the Tamil Tigers had been "one of the most notorious and brutal terrorist organizations over the past 20 years" but he urged the government to address Tamil concerns.

"A peaceful dialogue is what is called for to resolve the differences and legitimate concerns of the Tamils," he said."

"There has to be a devolution package which goes beyond the stale token concessions which various Sri Lankan governments have offered"

Some wars never seem to end. Jonathan Steele in the Guardian:

"Behind a wall of censorship horrendous battles are under way in northern Sri Lanka. The details are unclear since no independent reporters have been allowed access, and both sides – the government army and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam – give out bombastic and unverifiable casualty figures.

But through the fog of war a dreadful outline emerges. According to international aid agencies about a quarter of a million people ( 250,000 ) have been made homeless by conflict in the area which the Tigers once controlled behind officially agreed ceasefire lines. The government repudiated the ceasefire a year ago, and its army has made major advances towards the Tigers' political capital, Kilinochchi, as well as its military stronghold, Mullaitivu, on the north-east coast.

The government's boast of finishing the Tigers off in this high-casualty war has not yet been fulfilled. The army was bogged down for several weeks in monsoon rains in October and November, and in a typical battle on Monday the military admitted losing 25 soldiers even as they claimed to have killed 120 Tiger troops.

With its back to the jungle, the Tigers are stepping up pressure on civilians to defend their dwindling area of control, according to a Human Rights Watch report this week. "Trapped in the LTTE's iron fist, ordinary Tamils are forcibly recruited as fighters and forced to engage in dangerous labour near the front lines" ( THIS SEEMS TO BE A WORLDWIDE PRACTICE ), Brad Adams, HRW's Asia director said on Monday. "It has recently gone beyond its longstanding 'one person per family' forced recruitment policy and now sometimes requires two or more family members to join its ranks. The LTTE claims to be fighting for the Tamil people, but it is responsible for much of the suffering of civilians" ( FIGHTING FOR THE PEOPLE. THEY JUST WANT PEACE ).

The government, meanwhile, urges civilians to flee the Tiger areas and houses them in so-called welfare camps, which independent sources describe as detention camps ( UNREAL ). There government-paid informers wearing masks walk through the ranks of the displaced, identifying people as alleged Tiger supporters who are promptly detained ( VERY DECENT ).

Caught in the middle politically, civilians are also suffering massive privation. Since September, all foreign aid workers with the exception of the International Committee of the Red Cross have been barred from Tiger areas. The government has only let a handful of food convoys in ( THEIR STARVATION IS NECESSARY FOR THEIR GETTING A BETTER LIFE, APPARENTLY ).

The government's military advance has changed the political balance in Colombo. A rising tide of Sinhalese chauvinism has led the army commander to claim the island belongs to the Sinhalese Buddhist majority, while leading members of the political party founded by Buddhist monks describe all non-Sinhalese as descendants of visitors. The long-accepted consensus that Sri Lanka is a multi-ethnic home for several communities – Buddhist, Hindu, Muslim and Christian, is becoming politically incorrect in the minds of the country's current power holders( SECTARIANISM ON THE RISE ). The United National Party, the official opposition that brokered the 2002 ceasefire which now lies in tatters, has succumbed to the dangerous new mood. It, too, supports the government's goal of "military victory".

Were it to be achieved, Sri Lanka's problems would not be solved. The Tigers have always turned to suicide bombings ( I DON"T THINK THAT RELIGION FIGURES IN HERE ) and other atrocities in times of trouble. Forcing them out of their areas of territorial control will not produce peace. It will only condemn Sri Lanka's towns and villages to terrorist reprisals. Moderate Tamils do not support the Tiger's methods but they share the Tiger view that the island's current constitution does not offer fairness to non-Sinhalese populations. There has to be a devolution package which goes beyond the stale token concessions which various Sri Lankan governments have offered over the past two decades

Ironically, the only constructive proposals made since the crisis started came from the LTTE in 2003. Their suggested Internal Self-Governing Authority is over-ambitious but it has never been matched by a detailed blueprint from the government side. Until the government comes up with a realistic offer, which will have to involve elements of a federation, there will be no cause for celebration and no chance of compromise and peace."

This war needs to end before there is no population left. Realistically, there does seem to need to be a compromise, with the Tamil areas having some sort of self-determination.