Thursday, May 14, 2009

a few more years of work really could clarify what’s possible, or not, on time scales relevant to today’s children and their children

TO BE NOTED:


May 14, 2009, 2:26 pm

A New View of Antarctic Melting

Jonathan Bamber of the Bristol Glaciology Center in England has led a new analysis of just how much the loss of West Antarctica’s ice could raise sea levels if the ice sheet fully disintegrated. He and his co-authors conclude in the current issue of Science that the maximum rise in seas, not including what could come from Greenland, of course, would be about 10 feet, half of the 20 feet or so that has been the rough projection for several decades. My news story on the study includes cautionary comments from some other Greenland, specialists who warn that the long-term rise in seas is less relevant than what could happen in the next 100 years. The new research was not aimed at answering the near-term question. (Here’s more on the long-term melt risk.)

Over all, there is clearly still a consensus that the prime question, how fast and far seas could rise in the next 100 years, remains laden with uncertainty. Still, there appears to be growing conviction among ice experts that a few more years of work really could clarify what’s possible, or not, on time scales relevant to today’s children and their children. Here’s a video showing one possible outcome for Antarctic ice, created by another research team whose work I covered here recently:

[via Apture]


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