Tuesday, May 26, 2009

In the 20-city index, no area experienced year-over-year price gains, the twelfth straight month that has happened

TO BE NOTED: From the WSJ:

A Look at Case-Shiller Numbers, by Metro Area (May 2009 update)

By Phil Izzo

The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index, a closely watched gauge of U.S. home prices, continued to post declines in March.

Click the image for an interactive map of home-price declines.

The National Index, which is released quarterly and covers a broader area than the monthly 20- and 10-city indexes, posted a 19% drop in the first quarter from a year earlier and a 7.5% decline from the fourth quarter.

In the 20-city index, no area experienced year-over-year price gains, the twelfth straight month that has happened. However, three cities managed to avoid month-to-month declines. Charlotte and Denver posted modest increases, and prices in Dallas were flat.

Detroit and New York reported their largest monthly declines in March. The report notes that the performances of these areas represent the extremes of the national boom/bust scenario. New York still is up 73.4% from January 2000, though down 19.7% from its June 2006 peak. The Detroit index is 29% lower than in January 2000. Detroit home prices are back to their mid-1995 levels.

Phoenix, Las Vegas and San Francisco continued to lead year-over-year decliners, with drops over 30%. Minneapolis led month-to-month decliners, as the rate of decline accelerated there. The rates of decline also accelerated in Boston, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, New York, Portland, San Diego and Seattle.

Dallas, Denver, Cleveland, Boston and Charlotte managed to avoid double-digit year-over-year declines. Measuring from each market’s peak, Dallas has suffered the least, down 11.1% from its peak in June 2007; while Phoenix is down 53% from its peak in June of 2006. All of the 20 metro areas are in double digit declines from their peaks, with two — Phoenix and Las Vegas — in excess of 50%.

“The tone of this report was clearly weak, and it comes at a time when markets were beginning to sense and price in (perhaps prematurely so) a stabilization in the U.S. housing market,” said Millan L. B. Mulraine of TD Securities. “Despite the encouraging signs that have been coming from the other housing market reports, we continue to highlight the risks that the correction in the U.S. housing market may continue for some time as the worsening labor market conditions and historically high inventory of unsold homes continue to off-set the favorable affordability conditions.”

Below, see data from the 20 metro areas Case-Shiller tracks, sortable by name, level, and year-over-year change — just click the column headers to re-sort.

(About the numbers: The Case Shiller indices have a base value of 100 in January 2000. So a current index value of 150 translates to a 50% appreciation rate since January 2000 for a typical home located within the metro market.)

Home Prices, by Metro Area

Metro Area March 2009 Change from February Year-over-year change
Atlanta 104.89 -1.7% -15.7%
Boston 145.83 -2.0% -8.0%
Charlotte 119.3 0.3% -9.3%
Chicago 122.34 -3.1% -18.6%
Cleveland 96.86 -0.9% -9.0%
Dallas 112.38 0.0% -5.6%
Denver 120.35 0.1% -5.5%
Detroit 70.98 -4.9% -25.7%
Las Vegas 116.44 -3.8% -31.2%
Los Angeles 160.88 -1.4% -22.3%
Miami 148.87 -3.5% -28.7%
Minneapolis 109.12 -6.1% -23.3%
New York 173.35 -2.5% -11.8%
Phoenix 106.83 -4.5% -36.0%
Portland 147.68 -2.1% -15.3%
San Diego 144.56 -1.5% -22.0%
San Francisco 117.77 -2.2% -30.1%
Seattle 149.03 -2.0% -16.4%
Tampa 141.37 -2.7% -22.4%
Washington 166.01 -1.2% -18.4%
Source: Standard & Poor’s and FiservData"

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