Thursday, April 30, 2009

15 % of total liabilities of 12 major US financial firms stood at $110 billion in March 2008 and had a projected upper bound of $250 billion in Jy 08

TO BE NOTED: From securitization.net:

"A Framework for Assessing the Systemic Risk of
Major Financial Institutions
Xin Huang †
Hao Zhou ‡
Haibin Zhu §
April 2009

Abstract: In this paper we propose a framework for measuring and stress testing the systemic risk of a
group of major financial institutions. The systemic risk is measured by the price of insurance against
financial distress, which is based on ex ante measures of default probabilities of individual banks
and forecasted asset return correlations. Importantly, using realized correlations estimated from
high-frequency equity return data can significantly improve the accuracy of forecasted correlations.
Our stress testing methodology, using an integrated micro-macro model, takes into account dynamic
linkages between the health of major US banks and macro-financial conditions. Our results suggest
that the theoretical insurance premium that would be charged to protect against losses that equal
or exceed 15 % of total liabilities of 12 major US financial firms stood at $110 billion in March 2008
and had a projected upper bound of $250 billion in July 2008."

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