Wednesday, April 29, 2009

there may be some bright spots, particularly if you look at which components of G.D.P. fared worst and best

TO BE NOTED:From the NY Times:

"April 29, 2009, 7:57 pm

Good News From the G.D.P. Report?

The gross domestic product report released Wednesday was unquestionably depressing: the economy shrank at an annualized rate of 6.1 percent in the first quarter of this year, after a 6.3 percent annualized decline in the last quarter of 2008. But as a few analysts (including the blogger at Calculated Risk) have pointed out, there may be some bright spots, particularly if you look at which components of G.D.P. fared worst and best.

The areas showing the worst declines were generally lagging indicators — the backward-looking measures that continue to trend downward even after the overall economy has already begun to turn around. But one of the chief leading indicators — those measures that are more predictive of the future of the economy — fared a little better.

Consumer spending and residential investment (basically, housing) are usually considered leading indicators. That means growth in those areas usually precede growth in other areas of demand when an economy is on the path to recovery. While residential investment did fall in the first quarter of this year, consumer expenditures showed a modest uptick of 2.2 percent after declining 4.3 percent the previous quarter.

By contrast, nonresidential investment in structures and equipment and software — usually considered lagging indicators, since companies make adjustments to their building and investing after they already have a sense of how their businesses are doing — showed some of the steepest declines.

Of course, it’s hard to read too much into these phenomena, since in many ways this recession (as well as the government’s response to it) is different from those the conventional leading-lagging indicator chronology is based on. But still, history can be some guide for which metrics to watch.

For example, many people overemphasize growing unemployment numbers (not part of today’s G.D.P. report, by the way) as a signal for where the economy is headed. But job market conditions usually lag far behind other measures of the business cycle, since companies often make messy, uncomfortable firing and hiring decisions after they’ve dealt with other types of cutbacks and expenses.

Find a good explanation of this whole indicator chronology here."

"GDP Report: The Good News

by CalculatedRisk on 4/29/2009 11:41:00 AM

Although Q1 GDP was very negative due to the sharp investment slump (this was expected, see: Q1 GDP will be Ugly), the decline in Q1 was weighted towards lagging sectors.

Leading and Lagging Sectors Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This table shows the contribution to GDP for several sectors in Q1 2009 compared to Q4 2008.

The leading sectors are on the left, the lagging sectors towards the right.

There has been a shift from leading sectors to lagging sectors, although the negative contribution from residential investment was larger in Q1 than in Q4 2008.

However it appears that the slump in residential investment (mostly new home construction and home improvement) is slowing, and I expect the contribution to Q2 2009 to be close to zero - after declining for 13 consecutive quarters.

This doesn't mean the downturn is over, but this does suggest that the worst of the GDP declines is probably over.

For more, see Business Cycle: Temporal Order. Here is a repeat of the table showing a simplified typical temporal order for emerging from a recession:

When Recovery Typically Starts

During Recession Lags End of Recession Significantly Lags End of Recession
Residential InvestmentInvestment, Equipment & Software Investment, non-residential Structures
PCEUnemployment(1)


(1) In recent recessions, unemployment significantly lagged the end of the recession. That is very likely this time too.

Note: Any recovery will probably be sluggish, because household balance sheets still need repair (more savings), and any rebound in residential investment will probably be small because of the huge overhang of existing inventory. As I noted in Temporal Order, at least we know what to watch: Residential Investment (RI) and PCE. The increasingly severe slump in CRE / non-residential investment in structures will be interesting, but that is a lagging indicator for the economy.


"Business Cycle: Temporal Order

by CalculatedRisk on 3/08/2009 03:56:00 PM

I've written extensively about using housing as a leading indicator for recessions and recoveries. Professor Leamer of the UCLA Anderson Forecast presented a very readable paper on this topic at the 2007 Jackson Hole conference: Housing and the Business Cycle

In that paper, Leamer outlined the temporal order of a typical business cycle:

The temporal ordering of the spending weakness is: residential investment, consumer durables, consumer nondurables and consumer services before the recession, and then, once the recession officially commences, business spending on the short-lived assets, equipment and software, and, last, business spending on the long-lived assets, offices and factories. The ordering in the recovery is exactly the same.
I think this order can be simplified as follows (with employment added):

When Weakness Typically Starts

Pre-Recession Coincident with Recession Lags Start of Recession
Residential Investment PCE Investment, non-residential Structures
Investment, Equipment & Software
Unemployment


When I first started writing about the housing bubble - and the then coming housing bust - I pointed out that we should be very concerned because housing slumps typically lead the economy into recessions. It happened once again.

Housing usually leads the economy out of recessions too. The second table shows a simplified typical temporal order for emerging from a recession.

When Recovery Typically Starts

During Recession Lags End of Recession Significantly Lags End of Recession
Residential InvestmentInvestment, Equipment & Software Investment, non-residential Structures
PCEUnemployment(1)


This business cycle there are reasons that housing will not be a significant engine of recovery. It is possible - see Looking for the Sun - that new home sales and housing starts will bottom in 2009, but any recovery in housing will probably be sluggish.

That leaves Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) - and as households increase their savings rate to repair their balance sheets, it seems unlikely that PCE will increase significantly any time soon. So even if the economy bottoms in the 2nd half of 2009, any recovery will probably be very sluggish.

At least we know what to watch: Residential Investment (RI) and PCE. The increasingly severe slump in CRE / non-residential investment in structures will be interesting, but that is a lagging indicator for the economy.

(1) In recent recessions, unemployment significantly lagged the end of the recession. That is very likely this time too.

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