Thursday, June 4, 2009

It's probably fair to say that regardless of how much oil is found, there will never be another Saudi Arabia

From The Atlantic:

Jun 4 2009, 10:36AM

Uganda: The Next Saudi Arabia?


Uganda is a landlocked country of 32 million that's a bit smaller than Oregon. GDP: $1100. And, according to this report of a meeting with a representative of the US Department of Energy, may have reserves that "rival" those of Saudi Arabia.

(For reference: Saudi Arabia produces well over 10 million barrels of oil a day and has reserves estimated at 267 billion barrels.)

The DOE expert says Uganda could produce 3.5 million barrels a day, and possibly much more, and then offers US help with environmental and governance issues.

I have no way of knowing how accurate the prediction of Uganda's oil reserves is, but even if there is a lot of oil there, there's no doubt that the place and oil source we call Saudi Arabia was the product of a particular moment in world history, and a particular relationship between the US as the emerging post-colonial world power and the kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which needed protection as the Cold War heated up. In other words: More than oil made Saudi Arabia what it is today.

By contrast, this moment in history is a dramatically different petri dish. As this article shows, Uganda is actually considering NOT exporting its oil, which would mean that the reserves, no matter how large they are, would not realize their full value. Furthermore, Uganda is seriously looking at doing deals with both Iran and China--both in their own ways emerging powers without the baggage that the US has.

And the US has neither the diplomatic suasion nor the air of military invincibility that it had 50 years ago, or even 10 years ago. The US military, through AFRICOM, has a complex relationship with the government of Uganda and rival groups in nearby Democratic Republic of the Congo. Earlier this year, AFRICOM helped plan a horrifically botched raid on rebels who turned around and killed 900 civilians.

It's probably fair to say that regardless of how much oil is found, there will never be another Saudi Arabia, willing to invest so much of its income in creating spare capacity to keep America's vision of the world afloat with cheapish oil. For the US, chasing Saudi Arabias and oil reserves around the world has been part of our 20th century version of manifest destiny. But with incredible speed, the whole venture --both the good and the bad--is changing. "

Me:

Don the libertarian Democrat

"The US military, through AFRICOM, has a complex relationship with the government of Uganda and rival groups in nearby Democratic Republic of the Congo. Earlier this year, AFRICOM helped plan a horrifically botched raid on rebels who turned around and killed 900 civilians."

That's true, but you should have also mentioned this:

"UN says rebel hunt disaster for Congolese but must go on
09 Feb 2009 19:23:26 GMT
Source: Reuters
By Joe Bavier

DORUMA, Congo, Feb 9 (Reuters) - An offensive against Ugandan Lord's Resistance Army rebels in Congo has had catastrophic consequences for civilians but must go on to drive out the rebels, the U.N. humanitarian chief said on Monday.

Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) fighters have killed nearly 900 people in northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo, mostly since the start of a multinational campaign on Dec. 14 led by Ugandan forces.

"It's true that the humanitarian consequences have been catastrophic," U.N. Emergency Relief Coordinator John Holmes told reporters in Doruma, where at least 13,000 civilians have taken refuge after a spate of attacks by the rebels.

"I think they need to see the operation through. I don't know how long that will take...but I think there is no point in putting a premature end to it," Holmes said.

The decision lay with the Congolese and Ugandan governments, he said.

"We, meanwhile, will try to pick up the pieces as best we can."

I might also note the following:

"May 22nd, 2009 by alison in: Conflict Watch, Main Site
This week two US Senators and three Representatives banded together to introduce the LRA Disarmament and Northern Uganda Recovery Act, marking a watershed moment in our efforts to permanently end one of Africa's longest running conflicts. The bipartisan legislation has the potential to bring unprecedented levels of attention to this issue and spur our leaders to take the steps needed to stop LRA atrocities and help put northern Uganda on track towards lasting peace.

Stay tuned in the coming weeks for more details about the legislation and what it will take to make sure Congress and President Obama approve and implement it. Just yesterday Resolve Uganda joined with 21 civil society groups from the US and central Africa to voice our support for the legislation, but we know in the end it will take action on the part of people like you to push it past the finish line. "

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