Wednesday, December 31, 2008

"As shown, the 10-Year Treasury Note is up a whopping 21% this year, prompting the majority of market participants to call it the next bubble."

A couple of year end posts from Bespoke:

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Dow Jones Worst Years: 1900 - 2008

It looks like it is going to come down to a photo finish for where 2008 stacks up in terms of worst years since 1900. With a decline of 36.04% through 12/29, we are unlikely to catch up with the 53% decline in 1931. And with only two days left this year, we would also need a lousy last two days of trading to even catch up with 1907's 37.7% decline.

Worst Dow Years

51WglWku4XL._SL160_ It's a bit ironic that the declines of 2008 are so close to 1907, as that was also a year that the market had to deal with a credit crisis. The situation was so bad back then that they even wrote a book about it! When all is said and done about the current period, you can bet there will be no shortage of books about this one.

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"2008 Performance of Stocks, Oil, Dollar, and the Long Bond

Below we highlight the year-to-date performance of the S&P 500, oil, the dollar, and the long bond (10-Year Treasury Note). While it has been a horrible year for stocks (S&P 500 down 39%), it's been much worse for oil, which as we all know was up nearly 50% for the year back in July. While most asset classes are down big, the US Dollar has risen 6%, and Treasuries have skyrocketed. As shown, the 10-Year Treasury Note is up a whopping 21% this year, prompting the majority of market participants to call it the next bubble.

08perf

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