Thursday, December 4, 2008

"Allowing central banks to transfer cash directly to households would be the purest form of Milton Friedman’s “helicopter drop”.

By now, you know my position on printing money. I'm for it, damn it, and don't get in my way. Here's Eric Lonergan in the FT:

"The most direct and efficient solution to the economic and financial problems is for central banks to transfer cash directly to the household sector.

Final demand and profits would recover, asset prices would rise and as a result banks would have strengthening balance sheets. Fiscal positions would similarly improve with rising revenue.

These are the effects that policymakers are trying to achieve in an indirect and inefficient manner: we are using governments to do the spending, and we are trying to fix the financial system piecemeal, when the problem is demand, profits and prospective default risk.

Allowing central banks to transfer cash directly to households would be the purest form of Milton Friedman’s “helicopter drop”."

I'm starting to feel very proud of myself for having read that Buiter paper. Let's put Wagner on and get the helicopters flying, like those lovely monkeys in "The Wizard Of Oz". I'm not joking. I've always loved those monkeys. I love the smell of cash dropping from the sky in the morning. It smells like...like...Recovery.

"What is lacking is a legal and institutional framework to do this. "

To hell with that. We don't have time to worry about legalities and institutions. Sadly, that's exactly opposite to what I believe, but let's go on. Maybe he knows a way around this problem, not involving torture.

"The helicopter model is right, but we don’t have any helicopters. Open market operations are ineffective at the zero bound because the financial system just holds more cash, as we have seen in Japan. We need to print the money and give it directly to consumers."

Why don't you just rent some helicopters from the traffic reporters? Ah yes, I do love the printing idea. Agreed.

"Central banks, and not the fiscal authorities, are best placed to make these cash transfers. The government should determine a rule for the transfer. It is the government’s remit to decide if transfers should be equal, or skewed to lower income groups."

As long as you're giving free money out, you might want to skew it towards the poor. Just a thought.

"This rule should be decided in advance."

How else could they decide who to give it to? Unless you're taking this helicopter thought experiment seriously.

" But the quantity and timing of the transfers should be the authority of the central bank, subject to their discretion and to be used with the intention of meeting their inflation and growth objectives. The central bank would then raise interest rates and shrink its balance sheet when the economy recovers.

The reasons for granting this authority to the central bank are clear: it requires use of the monetary base. Granting government such powers would be vulnerable to political manipulation and misuse. These are the same reasons for giving central banks independent authority over interest rates.

Under the existing legal and institutional framework, the closest equivalent policy to this helicopter drop is for the government to make transfers financed by the central bank. Indeed, I suspect this is indirectly what America will do next year."

It will if I have any influence on my fellow citizens with this blog.

"Tax rebates (i.e. cash transfers) will likely be a part of Larry Summers and Tim Geithner’s fiscal stimulus and US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke has already talked - to considerable effect - about buying government debt as a next step for the Fed.

This is an entirely reasonable approach, given current institutional constraints. But a pure helicopter drop has obvious and compelling advantages. It protects central bank independence, and gives central banks a means for stimulating demand quickly and efficiently when interest rates reach zero. What will we do if the fiscal stimulus fails to trigger a recovery?"

I'm a helicopter and tax cut and stimulus man. What do you say to that?

"Possibly of importance is the issue of Ricardian equivalence (the theory that suggests that unfunded tax cuts will have no effect on spending because the public know they will be taxed in future to pay for current government largesse).

Ricardian equivalence is a useful concept not because individuals are hyper-rational, but because the opposite is true: framing matters. If cash transfers are financed by government borrowing from the central bank there will be calls for prospective fiscal policy to be tightened. If the central bank prints money this pressure will not exist, and a framework for responsible use of this tool already exists - medium-term price stability."

Leave Casey Mulligan out of this. But I agree, just print the money.

"We need a legal and administrative framework to allow central banks print money and transfer it to households. This would be efficient, effective and would eliminate the deflation risk for good."

Good luck my friend, and thanks for the post.

2 comments:

Kitty said...

Hi Don...

I maybe naive but I keep thinking that Americans have out-consumed themselves... the pendulum of materialism has swung to its outer edge and has begun swinging back... car sales went off the cliff... there are a lot of cars on the road already... maybe the dropoff was solely a response to the credit crisis fear rather than minimal "real" demand (replacement)...

Most of the discussion pivots around reflating consumer demand... I'm wondering if consumers may just turn to other things... and any fiscal or helicopter efforts would be saved or used to pay down debt... it will be interesting to see how XMass sales go...

A+++ comment... (and hilarious)

"Let's put Wagner on and get the helicopters flying, like those lovely monkeys in "The Wizard Of Oz". I'm not joking. I've always loved those monkeys. I love the smell of cash dropping from the sky in the morning. It smells like...like...Recovery."

Donald Pretari said...

Cate,

You know, I'm the saver type. The only reason I'm for this policy is that I understand it. That's what I said in my scanning of Bernanke's post on Deflation. The other options seem too complex to me.

Also, I was convinced by Buiter and Nick Rowe. I haven't heard from Nick recently, but I thought that this was their position as well. But since I'm just writing what I think, I think that this is the clearest alternative, even though we will have to deal with some tough issues.

If you read the Wolf post, I also like the paradoxical nature of my position, in being both for and against inflation. This might have something to do with my logic and philosophy studies. I don't find paradoxes bothersome. On the contrary, they're part of our existence. For example, Reason, which is used again the Skeptic, also strengthens the Skeptic's position. That's our situation,from my perspective.

On the Wolf piece, I also tried to do what Austin was great at: namely, simply ask people to clarify their assumptions and premises. In that, he's like Socrates, and they both tend to bother a lot of people who don't like thinking things through. That's why I simply asked why this saver/spender trend can't continue. Why not? That's also a Wittgensteinian type of question. Why not?

As to your point, I'll save. But I'm wondering Cate: I have an Aunt who loves to shop. I'll start worrying when she stops spending. She's not rich, but she has a job, and hasn't stopped. I don't ever see her becoming a saver like me. Once the mood changes, she'll be back on QVC and at TJ Max.

Thanks for the comment about my humor. I am trying to entertain frankly. I'm not trying to be anything more than interesting. I tried writing like Joyce for 30 years. It was liberating when I gave it up. I've finally found my voice.

Talk soon, Don