Friday, December 19, 2008

"Cerberus will be back to ask for more taxpayer dollars, and will continue to avoid responsiblity for repaying them. "

I have a different take on this than James Henley on Postive Liberty. I believe that the Automaker's Bailout is happening precisely to ward off posts like his:

"Not so widely reported in the auto bailout story is the link between Bush and principals of Chrysler owner Cerberus Financial Management. Amost immediately after stepping down as Bush’s Secretary of the Treasury, John Snow became chairman of Cerberus. Former Republican Veep Dan Quayle, who has been lobbying hard on this issue, runs one of Cerberus’s investment units. And Cerberus has just received a $4 billion loan from the government, thanks to Bush’s decisiont to tap the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) funds. This decision is troubling on multiple dimensions.

First, the hint of crony capitalism just can’t be waved away by noting that Bush also made a loan, a bigger one, to GM. GM’s failure is a more serious issue than Chrysler’s by far, because it employs far more people, not just directly, but because of its larger production level, indirectly as well. And the death of Chrysler is not likely to be wholesale–the Jeep brand remains a valuable commodity that Cerberus could sell to recoup at least some of its loss, and thereby keep some of their production plants going.

Second, we once again see the president making decisions that bypass the legislative process and distort the purposes of legislation he himself has signed. The TARP money was authorized by Congress for the purpose of bailing out the financial markets. However good an idea it may be to also bail out the auto industry, the people’s representatives have chosen not to do so. But Congress’s decisions no longer matter to presidents. The evisceration of representative democracy continues apace, and we all collectively yawn as legislative power continues to shift away from the legislative branch to the executive branch.

Third, Cerberus may have gotten what they most wanted, the ability to avoid responsibility for the loan if Chrysler doesn’t survive. They originally asked for $7 billion, curiously similar to the $7.4 billion they paid Daimler to acquire Chrysler just last year. Although that was $30 billion less than Daimler paid for Chrysler nine years earlier, most observers still couldn’t figure out why Cerberus thought it was a good deal, even at the fire sale price. The amount Cerberus asked led to the suspicion that they were looking for the taxpayers to cover the upfront price of their bad business decision.

But that’s not the really bad part of it. One of the reasons Congress balked at giving Chrysler a loan was that Cerberus did not want to open their books. The suspicion remains that Cerberus’s coffers are capable of providing the funding needed, but Cerberus closely guards its figures and wasn’t willing to make them public in order to disprove that notion.

But that’s not yet the really bad part of it. Another reason Congress balked was that Cerberus wanted Chrysler alone to be responsible for repayment of the loan. That way, if Chrysler still went under, Cerberus would be wholly off the hook for the taxpayer money it begged for. A nice trick, if you can swing it, and it appears that Bush has allowed his former Sec Treas to do so. At least as reported so far, the details of the loan don’t hold Cerberus responsible for repayment. Yet again we see that Republicans, despite their long-standing claim, are not a party of fiscal responsibliity. If one group of them isn’t spending the public’s money like drunken sailors, another group of them will quickly step in to do so.

My prediction for the new year? Cerberus will be back to ask for more taxpayer dollars, and will continue to avoid responsiblity for repaying them. If only Carter had let Chrysler die 30 years ago."

The bailouts cannot be confined to simply a financial bailout. That already has plenty of charges of conflict of interest and cronyism. Many people see the Automaker's Bailout as a Jobs Bill, as opposed to a bailout of the employers. That is the reason the Fed and Treasury Department are working so hard to do something for the Automakers and Home Buyers. They need some Bailout money to effect the lives of Middle Class Citizens. Solely bailing out the Financial Sector will be perceived as Cronyism by Definition.

Also, if unemployment were to drastically rise after a failure to Bailout the Automakers, and bailing out the Financial Sector had failed to keep that from happening, that would be a disaster of enormous proportions for the Bush Administration.

By definition, the Big 3 are Bush Cronies in the minds of many people. That is why my bailout plan included replacing the management, even though their incompetence was more than enough reason. But the UAW and the auxiliary jobs associated with the auto industry are viewed as a Middle Class issue, and dearly important to some people, especially the ones who find the Financial Sector Bailout dubious.

The Cerberus connection should be investigated, in order to make sure that they did not receive special treatment in this bailout, but their power and connections with the Bush Administration are not enough to kill this deal. We are battling Deflation. Some people don't see that as a big deal, but I disagree. We do not know how to deal with deflation other than causing inflation, which is what we are trying to do now. Failure to bail out the automakers could be a second Lehman, and two Lehmans could send us into a Deflationary Spiral. Beyond a certain point, in order to get inflation, the result could actually be hyperinflation. We're not there yet, and we don't want to be.

This crisis has taxed all of our knowledge and expectations as it is. We cannot afford to move the battle to territory we have no real map or experience for. That could lead to not only economic, but social problems. Problems that this Burkean takes very seriously.

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