"claims would need to reach just over 1 million per week now to be comparable to that level relative to the size of the labor force"

Some possible good news from Across The Curve:

"Initial jobless claims have been hitting multi decade highs as the recession deepens. Economists at UBS make the point that with the expansion in the labor force claims would need to average about one million per week to equate to the weakness evident in the Reagan/Volcker recession of the early 80s. Here is an excerpt from their note:

Jobless claims rose to 586k from 556k; the 4-week average rose to 558k from 544k. The latest reading is the highest since 1982, but the labor force has grown 53% since then. Relative to the size of the labor force, the level of claims is at its highest since 1992. In 1982, new claims reached 695k, with the 4-week average peaking at 674k; claims would need to reach just over 1 million per week now to be comparable to that level relative to the size of the labor force—that is highly unlikely in our view, just as we expect the unemployment rate to peak at a significantly lower level in this cycle than in 1982 (8.3% vs 10.8% in 1982)."

This is good news, although nothing is written. Remember, I believe that many of the layoffs are proactive and not tied to the fundamentals. Therefore, I predict that employment will pick up next year after the Obama Administration is in office and the Fear and Aversion to Risk subsides.