Wednesday, November 26, 2008

"that demand for loans has dipped all suggest we're far from the end of the current downturn"

This is ugly chart day. From Zubin Jelveh:

"Nov 25 2008 3:27PM EST

Chart of the Day

Interest rates on 30-day commercial paper. A2/P2 is the rating given by credit agencies to the least prime -- but still above junk -- paper:

commercial_paper.jpg

Chart is adapted from a recent presentation by University of Chicago's John Cochrane where he says that the death of the securitized lending system, aka the shadow banking system, may be a good thing:

Many investors thought they were getting 50 basis points at no risk, whereas in fact what they were holding was securitized debt and there was risk. It would be much better not to pretend that there's magic alpha.
The fact that TARP nor the Fed's unspoken quantitative easing policy haven't done anything to reduce borrowing costs for much of the private sector, that fed funds is close to zero, and that demand for loans has dipped all suggest we're far from the end of the current downturn, and why the Fed decided to go full-force into reducing mortgage rates."

Here's my comment:

Posted: Nov 26 2008 1:54pm ET
From my perspective, the two effects go together. The massive flight to safety is driving rates down, while the fear and aversion to risk is so great, that, besides causing the massive flight to safety, it is causing an even more pronounced flight from risk.

Nothing that has happened so far has changed that fundamental perception. Until it does, the numbers will remain poor.

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