Monday, November 3, 2008

"Here’s to hoping for a global fiscal stimulus of the right magnitude and in the right places."

Willem Buiter comes out against a stimulus for the U.S.:

" Another American fiscal stimulus of $200 billion, let alone one of the $400 to $500 bn that could become a reality if and when Obama gets elected President of the US and if the Democrats achieve a filibuster-proof 60 Senate seats, would be warmly welcomed by the rest of the world, but would do little for economic activity in the US. The government debt and net external debt position of the country would be dangerously impacted by the massive increase in the government deficit and in the external primary deficit that would result from a significant fiscal stimulus. Default risk premia on US government debt would rise sharply and risk-free longer-term nominal interest rates would also rise as the markets recognise that future monetisation of government deficits could be a politically attractive alternative to sovereign default, higher future taxes or large future public spending cuts."

So increasing the money supply or some other monetary moves would be more likely than:

1) Default ( Surely )
2) Higher taxes ( Not sure )
3) Spending cuts ( Not sure )

I'm not as sour on 2 and 3 as Buiter is, so I still see a stimulus as a good thing, but I take his point.

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