Tuesday, October 28, 2008

"Even in local currency, the emerging world should find basic materials a little easier to afford."

John Athers in the FT with a good summary:

"This is terrible for exporters, and for Japanese investors, who tend to save overseas, and have lost much wealth.

The dollar, meanwhile, is up more than 24 per cent since its low in March, inflicting pain on private investors and exporters.

The IMF is helping countries with the opposite problem, of currency depreciation. For them, the great concern is the increase in the cost of their debt.

As the Ukrainian hryvnia and the Hungarian forint barely responded to the IMF’s help, and other eastern European currencies kept falling, there is a real risk of more intervention in the region.

Normally every exchange rate move has a winner and a loser, but this upheaval seems different. Countries that wanted their currencies to be strong see them weakening; those who wanted a weak currency have seen a strengthening. All trade grows more difficult.

Is there good news? A year ago, food and fuel prices were sparking riots in the developing world. Now, Dow Jones-AIG’s agricultural commodities index is 44 per cent from its peak and energy has fallen 56 per cent, in dollar terms.

Even in local currency, the emerging world should find basic materials a little easier to afford."

Two points:

1) Current currency moves help no country.

2) Commodities are cheaper and that's a help.


No comments: