Sunday, October 12, 2008

My Prediction

I want to make a prediction, just in case it comes true and people will think that I'm very smart for no good reason. Many people are predicting the end of capitalism or saying more sensible things like this:

"It is possible, then, that the main legacy of the crisis will be some form of corrective to the country’s recent excesses. The economy looks to be heading into a period of more regulated, but still American-style, capitalism, more along the lines of how it operated in the 1950s, 1960s and 1990s. Those three decades happen to have produced the biggest and most widely shared economic gains since World War II."

I think that this is wrong, and the end of capitalism is silly.

I predict the following:

1) There will be more regulation, but it will focus on keeping crises from occurring, not on micro-managing the economy. ( See this post )

2) The government will more quickly than many believe get out out of these crisis investments.

3) A major cause of the crises infecting our current system will turn out to be the implicit and explicit guarantees by the government to intervene in crises such as this. It will be obvious that such interventions are too costly for governments in the future.

There you have it. We will have more government aid to the truly needy in the future, but the idea that government can manage the economies of the future more efficiently than private enterprise will turn out to be false.

Don't say you haven't been warned!

No comments: